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This article explains how right-wing populist leaders in Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey have transformed their states' foreign policy institutions through personalization and politicization. We examine the transformation of foreign policy institutions in the four cases and make two contributions. First, we differentiate between disparate types of personalization by proposing the term 'hyperpersonalization'—populist leaders' reliance on security institutions in foreign policy decision-making—which distinguishes the populist transformation of foreign policy institutions in Russia and Turkey. We argue that lower levels and speed of autocratization lead to politicization combined with milder cases of personalization of the foreign policy bureaucracy, while higher levels and speed of autocratization lead to higher levels of personalization in the foreign policy institutions. Second, we lay out the steps and patterns of populist politicization and hyperpersonalization that bring 'deinstitutionalizing restructuring' to foreign policy institutions. As we illustrate, this deinstitutionalizing restructuring involves concurrent bureaucratic expansion and bureaucratic retrenchment. The process is accompanied by a populist narrative that this restructuring is done to realize the 'popular will' or to regain 'full sovereignty'. We conclude the article with the policy implications of this populist transformation of foreign policy institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Academic and policy debates on alliances are yet to incorporate insights from foreign policy analysis (FPA) literature. Generally, bilateral relations between allies are either analyzed with insights from traditional IR theories (such as realism) or with policy-oriented work that does not engage any scholarly literature (focusing on only the day-to-day issues of international politics). I argue that FPA theories that make linkages between scholarly work and policy-oriented questions in an evidence-based and analytical fashion are capable of accounting for the most significant policy questions of modern international politics. This article analyzes US–Turkey relations in, arguably, their worst decade, with a role theoretic outlook. I claim that despite being close political and military allies since the 1940s, US–Turkey bilateral relations are witnessing their worst decade since the Arab uprisings in the MENA, due mostly to ideational factors that shape foreign policy. The conflictual relations originate from a change in US and Turkish foreign policy-makers' role conceptualizations vis-à-vis their countries' roles in the MENA region after the Arab uprisings and the role conflict this has caused with one another. Misaligned interests during the Arab uprisings, especially after 2014 in the Syrian civil war, have exacerbated the bilateral ties further. Drawing insights from elite interviews conducted in Turkey (2014–2016), Washington DC, and Ankara (2018–2020), I explain the sources of conflict in US–Turkey relations with a role theory perspective and offer policy prescriptions in conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What determines the consequences of economic sanctions? Is there a common explanation for these consequences? This article provides a comprehensive review of the fragmented literature focusing on the consequences of sanctions. We critically discuss the complex relationships between types of sanctions and sanction senders and their targets, as well as the structural factors that account for the specific consequences of different sanction cases. A discussion on the thematic, methodological, and theoretical shortcomings of the existing literature on sanction consequences follows. We argue that a "common approach" to sanction consequences research should be framed within the framework of international interdependence. We also present several nascent trends and propose new directions for sanction researchers and other disciplines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cyprus problem is one of the most protracted and complex conflicts in the world. This article uses poliheuristic (PH) theory to analyze Turkey's decision-making during the Cyprus crises of 1964, 1967, and 1974. We utilize the PH model (Mintz 1993 , 2004) and its method to systematically examine the decision-making process and outcomes during the three crises. We present primary evidence from governmental archives and secondary from media sources. The two hypotheses derived from the PH literature are supported by evidence. Results confirm Turkish decision-makers employed two-stage decision-making during each crisis. In the first stage, Turkish leaders followed the noncompensatory rule and eliminated options that could incur losses. In the second stage, their calculations were more in line with expected utility maximization. Implications of the case study in terms of PH model, foreign policy analysis, and international relations theory are discussed in the conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the significance of the subject, studies on the foreign policy preferences of European populist radical right leaders are scarce except for a handful of examples. Are European populist radical right leaders more hostile than other world leaders or comparatively friendly? Do they use cooperative or conflictual strategies to achieve their political goals? What are the leadership types associated with their strategic orientations in international relations? Using the operational code construct in this empirical study, we answer these questions and depict the foreign policy belief systems of seven European populist radical right leaders. We test whether they share a common pattern in their foreign policy beliefs and whether their foreign policy belief systems are significantly different from the norming group of average world leaders. The results indicate that European populist radical right leaders lack a common pattern in terms of their foreign policy belief systems. While the average scores of the analysed European populist radical right leaders suggest that they are more conflictual in their world views, results also show that they employ instrumental approaches relatively similar to the average group of world leaders. This article illuminates the microfoundations of strategic behaviour in international relations and arrives at conclusions about the role of European populist radical right leaders in mainstream International Relations discussions, such as idealism versus realism. In this sense, the cognitivist research school complements and advances structural accounts of international relations by analysing leadership in world affairs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides an introduction to the theoretical underpinnings of expected utility and game theory approaches in IR studies. It goes on to explore their application to a specific research subject, international bargaining on Iran's nuclear program. In this application, the article presents forecasts about Iran's nuclear program using a game theoretic, bounded rationality model called the expected utility model (Bueno de Mesquita 2002). Three analyses were made in December 2005, September 2006 and March 2007. All three forecasts appear to be in line with real-life developments regarding the issue. The results show that Iran has been losing international support since the analyses started, and the last forecast suggests a pro-US position supported by all major international actors. Also, all three analyses suggest that Russian and Chinese support is vital to curb the Iranian nuclear program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Operational code analysis was originally designed to analyse the Soviet Politburo members’ political strategies and was codified by George and Walker, Schafer and Young. The approach has mostly been used to analyse individual world leaders, rather than specific political groups. In this article, I use the operational code construct to analyse political Islamists’ belief systems. I discuss issues regarding using the operational code construct in a non-Western political and cultural setting. The first difficulty of using the operational code analysis to analyse political Islamists’ strategies is the diversity of the movement, which led to a certain “level of analysis” problem. Second, whether to use computerised analysis or traditional hand coding was an important decision. Third, some procedures of the operational code research agenda, such as coding only transitive verbs, at times seemed to be in conflict with Turkish and Arabic sentence structures and verbs. Lastly, since the “Western” foreign policy analysis (FPA) theories are not frequently applied in the “global south” cases, I did not have a large body of literature to use while conducting my research. This article discusses the “boundedness” of the operational code analysis in analysis of non-Western individual leaders and political movements by discussion of these issues and others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper analyses the current security challenges and military balance in the Black Sea region. The region, which has been going through vast political and economic transformations since the end of the Cold War, has become a platform for great power rivalry in the last few years. NATO expansion and Russian resistance to it, combined with the existing protracted conflicts, resulted in the first major regional war in a decade. The Russia-Georgia war of 2008 proved that regional actors still perceive the use of force as an acceptable tool of foreign policy. The changing military balance and abrupt increases in military expenditure from some actors suggest that the likelihood of other interstate conflicts in the region is high. Providing security and stability in the Black Sea seems more difficult than the pre-August 2008 war period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the relationship between Iran and the U.S., examining the significance that Iran's nuclear program plays in the efforts of both countries to co-exist with each other. An overview of Iran's history is given, focusing on the period beginning in 1947, when Iran gained full sovereignty over its territory, until 2009. Factors that influence U.S. policy towards Iran include the geopolitical position of Iran vis-à-vis the Soviet Union during the Cold War and the oil and gas resources possessed by Iran. The nationalization of Iran's petroleum reserves in 1951 is also discussed.

Ethnic conflicts with a strong religious component do not have merely domestic or foreign causes and consequences. As a result, internationalization of ethnic conflict has become an important subject of inquiry both in terms of pure research and policy-oriented studies. This article presents a case study of Indian-Pakistani relations over Kashmir, used to evaluate the role of religion and the explanatory power of the approach presented here. The aim of the study is to apply a foreign policy approach that simultaneously incorporates domestic and external factors in an analysis of how and in what ways religious elements of the Kashmir question affect India's foreign policy. The approach, an application of “systemism,” contributes to current developments in the realist school of international relations through its emphasis on the need to look at both international and state levels in combination. Earlier applications of realism, as both neotraditional and structural realism clearly demonstrate, tend to remain restricted to one level or the other. In this approach, a religious dynamic can have a domestic source yet be effectively examined in terms of international ramifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The title compound, C12H12ClFN2O3, adopts a keto–hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by an intra­molecular N—H⋯O hydrogen bond. The whole mol­ecule is roughly planar, the largest deviation from the mean plane being 0.328 (3) Å for the terminal methyl C atom of the ethyl side chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The title compound, C12H13ClN2O3, adopts a keto–hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by an intra­molecular N—H⋯O hydrogen bond. The configuration around the C=N bond is trans. The dihedral angle between the aromatic ring and the aliphatic chain is 5.52 (9)°. Symmetry-related mol­ecules are linked via C—H⋯O hydrogen bonds to form chains along the b axis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The title compound, C12H12N3O5, adopts a keto-hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by intra­molecular hydrogen bonds. The aromatic ring and aliphatic chain, which adopt a trans configuration about the C=N double bond, are nearly coplanar, with a dihedral angle of 7.56 (1)° between them. The mol­ecules pack via weak inter­molecular C—H⋯O hydrogen bonds which, together with intra­molecular N—H⋯O bonds, form an S(6) S(6)[ R22(13)] S(6) S(6) motif. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The title compound, C12H12N3O5, adopts a keto-hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by an intra­molecular hydrogen bond. The aromatic ring and aliphatic chain, which adopt a trans configuration about the N—N bond, are nearly coplanar, with a dihedral angle of 18.30 (6)° between them. The mol­ecules pack via weak inter­molecular C—H⋯O hydrogen bonds which, together with an intra­molecular N—H⋯O bond, form an S(6) C(13) motif. The structure is further stabilized by C—H⋯π and π–π inter­actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The title compound, C14H15ClN2O4, adopts a keto–hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by an intramolecular N—H...O hydrogen bond. The configuration around the N—N bond is trans. The dihedral angle between the aromatic ring and the plane of the aliphatic chain attached to the hydrazone group is 10.5 (1)°. In the solid state, molecules exist as centrosymmetrically related C—H...O hydrogen-bonded R22(24) dimers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are two crystallographically independent mol­ecules in the asymmetric unit of the title compound, C12H12ClBrN2O3. The mol­ecules adopt a keto–hydrazo tautomeric form, stabilized by an intra­molecular hydrogen bond. The aromatic ring and aliphatic chain have a trans configuration about the N—N bond. The mol­ecules pack via weak inter­molecular C—H⋯O hydrogen bonds which, together with an intra­molecular N—H⋯O bond, form an S(6)[ R22(14)] S(6) motif. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The title compound, C14H17ClN2O3, adopts a keto–hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by an intra­molecular N—H⋯O hydrogen bond. The mol­ecule is roughly planar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The title compound, C13H15ClN2O3, adopts a keto–hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by an intra­molecular N—H⋯O hydrogen bond. The configuration around the N—N bond is trans. The dihedral angle between the aromatic ring and the plane of the C—C—C(=O)—C aliphatic chain is 6.07 (8)°. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The title compound, C10H13NO, crystallizes with two independent but essentially identical mol­ecules in the asymmetric unit. The mol­ecules are linked by two N—H⋯O and two C—H⋯O hydrogen bonds into chains of edge-fused rings in which R33(10) and R88(33) rings alternate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The title compound, C12H12Cl2N2O3, adopts a keto–hydrazo tautomeric form stabilized by an intra­molecular hydrogen bond. The mol­ecule can be considered as consisting of two connected fragments, viz. a chloro­phenyl­hydrazone group, with a Z configuration, and an oxobutanoate group. The mol­ecule is roughly planar, the dihedral angle between the benzene ring and the plane including the aliphatic chain being 4.7 (2)°. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]