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Freshwater turtle populations are declining globally as a result of anthropogenic activities. Threats to turtles in urban areas are exacerbated by road mortality and subsidized predators, which can lead to catastrophic shifts in population size and structure. Headstarting is used as a conservation tool to supplement turtle populations that may otherwise face extirpation. A headstarting program began in 2012 to recover a functionally extinct population of Blanding's Turtles (Emydoidea blandingii) 26in Rouge National Urban Park (RNUP), Ontario, Canada. The original population included five adults and one juvenile turtle. From 2014 to 2020, 270 headstarted turtles were released. The population has been monitored annually since 2014 using visual-encounter surveys, radio-telemetry, and live trapping (from 2018 onwards). We used mark-recapture and radio-telemetry data to quantify abundance, survival, and sex ratio of the headstarted turtle population. Using a Jolly-Seber model, we estimated abundance to be 183 turtles (20 turtles/ha) in 2020. Estimated survival of headstarted turtles approached 89%, except for turtles released in 2019 when survival was 43% as a result of a known mass mortality event at the study site. Pre- and post-release sex ratios were not significantly different (χ2 = 1.92; p = 0.16), but shifted from 1:1.5 to 1:1 male:female post-release. Given that the headstarted turtles have not yet reached sexual maturity, it is unclear whether headstarted turtles will reach adulthood and successfully reproduce to maintain a self-sustaining population. Thus, to evaluate the success of the headstarting program, long-term monitoring is required., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Wijewardena et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Bighead Carp currently threatens to invade the Laurentian Great Lakes from the Mississippi River, but the novel climatic conditions it will encounter by expanding northwards could affect its population performance. Bighead Carp in colder climates exhibits slower growth and matures later, with later maturation typically leading to larger adult size and increased fecundity and survival. Accordingly, the life-history strategies of Bighead Carp at its northern range limits could differ from those observed in its current invaded range. To explore how population performance could differ across changing environmental conditions, we used a stage- and age-based matrix population model parameterized with values reported for Bighead Carp populations around the world. The model was used to evaluate how different ages of maturity and their resulting impacts to body size, survival, and fecundity could impact rates of population growth and establishment. Age of maturity had a non-linear effect on population growth, with maturation at intermediate ages (4-6 years) resulting in better performance. However, performance differed less between maturation ages when fecundity was allowed to increase disproportionately with body size. Greater population growth at younger ages of maturity suggest that invasion at lower latitudes could enable establishment in fewer years due to faster rates of development in warmer temperatures. Across all maturation schedules, population growth was most sensitive to the recruitment of age-1 individuals and least sensitive to adult survival, and vital rates overall varied more in their contribution to population growth at younger ages of maturity. Thus, understanding the factors that control age-1 recruitment would inform projections of population performance for Bighead Carp in the Laurentian Great Lakes., Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-023-03126-z., Competing Interests: Conflict of interestThe authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose., (© The Author(s) 2023.)

Introduced and geographically expanding populations experience similar eco-evolutionary challenges, including founder events, genetic bottlenecks, and novel environments. Theory predicts that reduced genetic diversity resulting from such phenomena limits the success of introduced populations. Using 1900 SNPs obtained from restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing, we evaluated hypotheses related to the invasion history and connectivity of an invasive population of Tench ( Tinca tinca ), a Eurasian freshwater fish that has been expanding geographically in eastern North America for three decades. Consistent with the reported history of a single introduction event, our findings suggest that multiple introductions from distinct genetic sources are unlikely as Tench had a small effective population size (~114 [95% CI = 106-123] individuals), no strong population subdivision across time and space, and evidence of a recent genetic bottleneck. The large genetic neighbourhood size (220 km) and weak within-population genetic substructure suggested high connectivity across the invaded range, despite the relatively large area occupied. There was some evidence for a small decay in genetic diversity as the species expanded northward, but not southward, into new habitats. As eradicating the species within a ~112 km radius would be necessary to prevent recolonization, eradicating Tench is likely not feasible at watershed-and possibly local-scales. Management should instead focus on reducing abundance in priority conservation areas to mitigate adverse impacts. Our study indicates that introduced populations can thrive and exhibit relatively high levels of genetic diversity despite severe bottlenecks (<1.5% of the ancestral effective population size) and suggests that landscape heterogeneity and population demographics can generate variability in spatial patterns of genetic diversity within a single range expansion., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (© 2022 The Authors. Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The addition of nonnative species and loss of native species has modified the composition of communities globally. Although changes in β-diversity have been well documented, there is a need for studies incorporating multiple time periods, more than one dimension of biodiversity, and inclusion of nestedness and turnover components to understand the underlying mechanisms structuring community composition and assembly. Here, we examined temporal changes in functional dissimilarity of fish communities of the Laurentian Great Lakes and compared these changes to those of taxonomic dissimilarity by decade from 1870 to 2010. Jaccard-derived functional dissimilarity index was used to quantify changes in functional β-diversity within communities, between all possible pairs of communities, and using a multiple-site index among all communities. β-diversity was partitioned into components of nestedness and turnover, and changes were examined over time. Similar to patterns in taxonomic dissimilarity, each community functionally differentiated from the historical community of 1870, with Lake Superior changing the most (~24%) and Lake Ontario the least (~14%). Although communities have become taxonomically homogenized, functional β-diversity among all communities has increased over time, indicating functional differentiation. This is likely due to functional similarity between the communities being historically high (i.e., ~88% similar in 1870). The higher taxonomic relative to functional turnover indicates that the species being replaced between communities are functionally redundant, which could occur given the harsh environmental conditions of the region and/or as a result of the recent glacial history of the region. High functional nestedness across communities reflects dispersal limitations, with smaller communities being functional subsets of large communities closer to source populations. The functional differentiation observed is likely due to nonnative species with functional traits unique to the region establishing or the loss of functionally redundant native species; however, it is important to note that patterns of homogenization were periodically observed through time. Our study demonstrates the possible factors regulating diversity in the Laurentian Great Lakes fish communities, that patterns of taxonomic and functional β-diversity are dynamic over time and vary in the magnitude and direction of change, and that taxonomic diversity should not be used to predict changes in functional diversity., (© 2020 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Long implicated in the invasion process, live-bait anglers are highly mobile species vectors with frequent overland transport of fishes. To test hypotheses about the role of anglers in propagule transport, we developed a social-ecological model quantifying the opportunity for species transport beyond the invaded range resulting from bycatch during commercial bait operations, incidental transport, and release to lake ecosystems by anglers. We combined a gravity model with a stochastic, agent-based simulation, representing a 1-yr iteration of live-bait angling and the dynamics of propagule transport at fine spatiotemporal scales (i.e., probability of introducing n propagules per lake per year). A baseline scenario involving round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) indicated that most angling trips were benign; irrespective of lake visitation, anglers failed to purchase and transport propagules (benign trips, median probability P = 0.99912). However, given the large number of probability trials (4.2 million live-bait angling events per year), even the rarest sequence of events (uptake, movement, and deposition of propagules) is anticipated to occur. Risky trips (modal P = 0.00088 trips per year; approximately 1 in 1136) were sufficient to introduce a substantial number of propagules (modal values, Poisson model = 3715 propagules among 1288 lakes per year; zero-inflated negative binomial model = 6722 propagules among 1292 lakes per year). Two patterns of lake-specific introduction risk emerged. Large lakes supporting substantial angling activity experienced propagule pressure likely to surpass demographic barriers to establishment (top 2.5% of lakes with modal outcomes of five to 76 propagules per year; 303 high-risk lakes with three or more propagules, per year). Small or remote lakes were less likely to receive propagules; however, most risk distributions were leptokurtic with a long right tail, indicating the rare occurrence of high propagule loads to most waterbodies. Infestation simulations indicated that the number of high-risk waterbodies could be as great as 1318 (zero-inflated negative binomial), whereas a 90% reduction in bycatch from baseline would reduce the modal number of high risk lakes to zero. Results indicate that the combination of invasive bycatch and live-bait anglers warrants management concern as a species vector, but that risk is confined to a subset of individuals and recipient sites that may be effectively managed with targeted strategies.

Human-mediated dispersal among aquatic ecosystems often results in biotic transfer between drainage basins. Such activities may circumvent biogeographic factors, with considerable ecological, evolutionary, and economic implications. However, the efficacy of predictions concerning community changes following inter-basin movements are limited, often because the dispersal mechanism is poorly understood (e.g., quantified only partially). To date, spatial-interaction models that predict the movement of humans as vectors of biotic transfer have not incorporated patterns of human movement through transportation networks. As a necessary first step to determine the role of anglers as invasion vectors across a land-lake ecosystem, we investigate their movement potential within Ontario, Canada. To determine possible model improvements resulting from inclusion of network travel, spatial-interaction models were constructed using standard Euclidean (e.g., straight-line) distance measures and also with distances derived from least-cost routing of human transportation networks. Model comparisons determined that least-cost routing both provided the most parsimonious model and also excelled at forecasting spatial interactions, with a proportion of 0.477 total movement deviance explained. The distribution of movements was characterized by many relatively short to medium travel distances (median = 292.6 km) with fewer lengthier distances (75th percentile = 484.6 km, 95th percentile = 775.2 km); however, even the shortest movements were sufficient to overcome drainage-basin boundaries. Ranking of variables in order of their contribution within the most parsimonious model determined that distance traveled, origin outflow, lake attractiveness, and sportfish richness significantly influence movement patterns. Model improvements associated with least-cost routing of human transportation networks imply that patterns of human-mediated invasion are fundamentally linked to the spatial configuration and relative impedance of human transportation networks, placing increased importance on understanding their contribution to the invasion process.

Invasive species are increasingly becoming a policy priority. This has spurred researchers and managers to try to estimate the risk of invasion. Conceptually, invasions are dependent both on the receiving environment (invasibility) and on the ability to reach these new areas (propagule pressure). However, analyses of risk typically examine only one or the other. Here, we develop and apply a joint model of invasion risk that simultaneously incorporates invasibility and propagule pressure. We present arguments that the behaviour of these two elements of risk differs substantially--propagule pressure is a function of time, whereas invasibility is not--and therefore have different management implications. Further, we use the well-studied zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) to contrast predictions made using the joint model to those made by separate invasibility and propagule pressure models. We show that predictions of invasion progress as well as of the long-term invasion pattern are strongly affected by using a joint model.