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Baseline studies of small rodent populations in undisturbed ecosystems are rare. We report here 50 years of monitoring and experimentation in Yukon of a dominant rodent species in the North American boreal forest, the red‐backed vole Clethrionomys rutilus. These voles breed in summer, weigh 20–25 g, and reach a maximum density of 20 to 25 per ha. Their populations have shown consistent 3–4‐year cycles for the last 50 years with the only change being that peak densities averaged 8/ha until 2000 and 18/ha since that year. During the last 25 years, we have measured food resources, predator numbers, and winter weather, and for 1‐year social interactions, to estimate their contribution to changes in the rate of summer increase and the rate of overwinter decline. All these potential limiting factors could contribute to changes in density, and we measured their relative contributions statistically with multiple regressions. The rate of winter decline in density was related to both food supply and winter severity. The rate of summer increase was related to summer berry crops and white spruce cone production. No measure of predator numbers was related to winter or summer changes in vole abundance. There was a large signal of climate change effects in these populations. There is no density dependence in summer population growth and only a weak one in winter population declines. None of our results provide a clear understanding of what generates 3–4‐year cycles in these voles, and the major missing piece may be an understanding of social interactions at high density. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Altitudinal and latitudinal treeline ecotones have not consistently responded to climate warming in the direction and/or magnitude predicted by climate alone, suggesting that non‐climatic mechanisms (e.g. biotic interactions) also mediate treeline range dynamics. Through a collaborative research approach, we assessed environmental conditions associated with pre‐dispersal insect cone granivory and how this biotic interaction may govern the reproductive potential, and therefore range dynamics, of spruce‐dominated treelines across northern Canada. Location: In all, 10 boreal forest treelines, tundra and alpine, from Yukon to Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. Taxa: White spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss), Black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.), Strobilomyia spp., Megastigmus spp. Methods: Treeline sites were assessed for presence and magnitude of pre‐dispersal seed granivory by insects along with viable seed availability. We quantified stand density metrics, organic layer depth and understorey vegetation composition at each location and, subsequently, incorporated those variables into generalized linear mixed models to establish predictors of granivory magnitude and viability of available seed. Results: Insect granivory was widespread across sites; however, site‐specific patterns of granivory were associated with increased moss cover and decreased shrub cover and stand density. While all black spruce‐dominated sites exhibited seed viability rates > 50%, the number of seeds produced per cone varied, suggesting that within‐site abiotic conditions and biotic interaction pressures limit successful colonization of novel environments in advance of seed dispersal. Main Conclusions: The modelled relationships between granivory, seed viability and environmental conditions represent an essential step towards generalizing how and when biotic interactions across subarctic treelines influence boreal tree range dynamics before seed dispersal. Connections between granivory magnitude and site‐level treeline characteristics (e.g. stand density, understorey vegetation) will provide a more comprehensive understanding of treeline range dynamics under continued climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under climate change circumstances, increasing studies have reported the temporal instability of tree growth responses to climate, which poses a major challenge to linearly extrapolating past climate and future growth dynamics using tree‐ring data. Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is a potential solution to this problem that is widely used in the dendrochronology field to project past or future temporal growth response trajectories from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the projected accuracy of the SFTS in the climate effects on tree growth remains uncertain. Here, we empirically test the SFTS method by comparing the effect of spatial and temporal climate variations on climate responses of white spruce (Picea glauca), which has a transcontinental range in North America. We first applied a response surface regression model to capture the variations in growth responses along the spatial climate gradients. The results showed that the relationships between growth and June temperature varied along spatial climate gradients in a predictable way. And their relationships varied mainly along with local temperate condition. Then, the projected correlation coefficients between growth and climate using SFTS were compared against the observed. We found that the growth response changes caused by spatial versus temporal climate variations showed opposite trends. Moreover, the projected correlation coefficients using the SFTS were significantly lower than the observed. This finding suggests that applying the SFTS to project the growth response of white spruce might lead to an overestimation of the degree of tree maladaptation in future climate scenarios. And the overestimation is likely to get weaker from Alaska and Yukon Territory in the west to Quebec in the east. Although this is only a case study of the SFTS method for projecting tree growth response, our findings suggest that direct application of the SFTS method may not be applicable to all regions and all tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree-ring data for 1942 - 2013 were used to determine if boreal and subalpine Picea albertiana S. Brown emend. Strong & Hills radial growth rates changed after 1950 in southern Yukon, northwest Canada. The latter year represented the beginning of accelerated atmospheric greenhouse gas accumulation, which has subsequently caused global climate changes. Ring-width chronologies for both boreal and subalpine trees were constructed using 80 trees. Individual ring-width sequences were crossdated, age-detrended, and converted to tree ring-width indices (RWI). In 2013, boreal and subalpine RWI were 41% and 169% greater than in 1950, respectively. In contrast, elevational treeline chronologies in the region typically decreased 20% - 70%. During 1942 - 2013, boreal and subalpine chronologies were significantly, at best modestly (r < |0.36|), and exclusively correlated with either moisture or temperature variables, respectively. Within this same time frame, RWI-climate variable correlates differed between the early and late phases of each chronology. Average pre-1969 or early-phase boreal correlations based on a 19-year moving window reached a maximum of - 0.56. Late-phase chronology correlations typically shifted towards weaker associations with climate variables (typically +0.04 to +0.30). For boreal RWI, 25 of 68 tested climate variables shifted as much as 0.40 - 0.88 correlation coefficient units between the early and late phases of the chronologies. Subalpine RWI were correlated only with July - August precipitation during the early phase of its chronology. These changes suggest responses by spruce to climate have shifted since 1970. The modest 1942 - 2013 RWI-climate variable correlations likely reflect the result of these changing ecological relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of maximum early tree ring growth within a regional curve standardization (RCS) framework were used to construct ring width chronologies in mm year−1 to estimate historical growth rates in southwest Yukon (Canada), without the necessity of correcting for age related changes. The analysis relied on the use of the 11th–50th year growth rings to standardize chronology comparisons. This age range represents the period of peak radial growth for Picea albertiana and P. glauca (white spruces), which are common trees on upland boreal sites in the study area. Of 1,460 available Picea ring series, 1,029 fit the criteria for inclusion in the study and they represented five commonly occurring RCS curve types. When converted to chronologies, all curve types had year-to-year fluctuations in average ring widths (RW11–50), but nine of the 12 RCS types (four types in three study areas) also had long-term growth rate increases of 15–132% between ad 1850 and 2000, based on regression modeling (R/r = 0.54–0.76, p < 0.001). Associated with these increases were changes through time in RCS curve type and the timing of peak growth. Among studied areas, RW11–50 values on average increased 47% from 1.59 to 2.35 mm year−1 between 1850 and 2000. The greatest increase (71% vs 35–38%) occurred in the coldest study area. RW11–50 values were significantly (p < 0.001) and strongly correlated (r > 0.94, n > 100) with conventional tree ring width index values derived from multiple RCS curves. This indicates that the two chronology construction approaches have very similar temporal patterns despite the maximum early growth analysis technique representing ring widths in mm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In north-western North America, the so-called divergence problem (DP) is expressed in tree ring width (RW) as an unstable temperature signal in recent decades. Maximum latewood density (MXD), from the same region, shows minimal evidence of DP. While MXD is a superior proxy for summer temperatures, there are very few long MXD records from North America. Latewood blue intensity (LWB) measures similar wood properties as MXD, expresses a similar climate response, is much cheaper to generate and thereby could provide the means to profoundly expand the extant network of temperature sensitive tree-ring (TR) chronologies in North America. In this study, LWB is measured from 17 white spruce sites (Picea glauca) in south-western Yukon to test whether LWB is immune to the temporal calibration instabilities observed in RW. A number of detrending methodologies are examined. The strongest calibration results for both RW and LWB are consistently returned using age-dependent spline (ADS) detrending within the signal-free (SF) framework. RW data calibrate best with June–July maximum temperatures (Tmax), explaining up to 28% variance, but all models fail validation and residual analysis. In comparison, LWB calibrates strongly (explaining 43–51% of May–August Tmax) and validates well. The reconstruction extends to 1337 CE, but uncertainties increase substantially before the early 17th century because of low replication. RW-, MXD- and LWB-based summer temperature reconstructions from the Gulf of Alaska, the Wrangell Mountains and Northern Alaska display good agreement at multi-decadal and higher frequencies, but the Yukon LWB reconstruction appears potentially limited in its expression of centennial-scale variation. While LWB improves dendroclimatic calibration, future work must focus on suitably preserved sub-fossil material to increase replication prior to 1650 CE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A tree-ring analysis of 764 western white spruce (Picea albertiana) in the Takhini Valley of southwest Yukon was conducted to assess short- and long-term variation in growth and local climate. The resulting chronology spanned the period from AD 1763 to 2013. A polynomial regression (R = 0.720, p < 0.001) indicated that the pre-1840 segment of the chronology had below-normal tree ring-width index (RWI) values (average 0.64, with modest variation), but the subsequent segment had greater variation and a steady increase in RWI values (average 0.89) until ~1920. After 1930, RWI values began to increase again (average 1.06) with 51% more variation than had previously occurred. Peak RWI values after 1930 were double those of the early 1800s. RWI values were uncorrelated with air temperature variables (except September minima), but weakly and positively correlated (r < 0.35) with precipitation variables. RWI values were moderately correlated with annual heat-moisture index values (r = −0.415, p < 0.001), although more strongly with RWI values less than 1.1 (R = −0.631, p < 0.001). Therefore, the RWI chronology was interpreted from an ecological moisture-balance perspective, with possible long-term temperature changes estimated from archival sources. The latter suggested a 2.1˚ – 3.1˚C rise since the early 1800s. Extreme RWI values and portions of the chronology were associated with known environmental events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Sustainable forest management (SFM) requires the balancing of diverse values and conflicting management objectives. Climate change adds a further degree of uncertainty to this complex issue. In this study we analysed a Strategic Forest Management Plan (SFMP) from the southwest Yukon, Canada. The SFMP was developed to enable the salvage harvesting of beetle-killed white spruce stands and encourage fuel-abatement treatments to reduce fire risk to local communities. It did not, however, provide a long-term strategy to achieve SFM in the region. In this study, the SFMP served as the basis to develop and evaluate alternative forest management strategies in the context of climate change. Working group discussions with local stakeholders enabled the structuring of a ratings table that helped practitioners and experts to characterize five alternative strategies stemming from the SFMP, based on its main goals and objectives. An Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was then used to balance competing values and objectives and test the alternatives against each other. The strategy ‘Manage for multiple values and use’ had the highest AHP-score when compared to the four other alternatives (timber, wildlife, fire risk reduction and carbon), which were narrower in scope. It may represent the best balance for the ecological and socio-economic values listed in the SFMP. Although the multiple values (MV) alternative is closest to the current SFMP in terms of scope, this study highlights that there are viable alternatives such as ‘manage for wildlife’ that achieved similar scores to the MV approach. The current SFMP has great potential to serve as a basis and starting point for a continuous and adaptive planning process for forest management. Exploring the different/alternative strategic directions will help to better address uncertain futures, thereby leading to more sustainable approaches. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

White spruce ( (Moench) Voss) cone crops were measured from 1986 to 2011 in the Kluane region of southwestern Yukon to test the hypothesis that the size of cone crops could be predicted from spring and summer temperature and rainfall of years t, t - 1, and t - 2 . We counted cones in the top 3 m of an average of 700 white spruce trees each year spread over 3-14 sites along 210 km of the Alaska Highway and the Haines Highway. We tested the conventional explanation for white spruce cone crops that implicates summer temperatures and rainfall in years t and t - 1 and rejected it, since it explained very little of the variation in our 26 years of data. We used exploratory data analysis with robust multiple regressions coupled with Akaike's information criterion corrected (AICc) analysis to determine the best statistical model to predict the size of cone crops. We could statistically explain 54% of the variation in cone crops from July and August temperatures of years t - 1 and t - 2 and May precipitation of year t - 2. There was no indication of a periodicity in cone crops, and years of large cone crops were synchronous over the Kluane region with few exceptions. This is the first quantitative model developed for the prediction of white spruce cone crops in the Canadian boreal forest and has the surprising result that weather conditions 2 years prior to the cone crop are the most significant predictors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small-scale vertical aerial photographs taken in 1947 and 1948 covering 200 km2 of the Kluane Ranges, southwest Yukon, were compared with corresponding photographs taken in 1989 for the purpose of characterizing changes in the distribution and abundance of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) at the alpine treeline. Digital photogrammetry, including orthorectification and on-screen interpretation, was supplemented by stereoscopic inspection of the original prints. Qualitative assessment of change across nine image pairs was accompanied by quantitative analysis of changes in spruce density and elevation using 1 hectare plots and 100 m wide elevational belt transects, respectively, superimposed on the orthorectified images. Significant changes were observed over the 41 years, but the degree of change varied throughout the study area. The most common changes were an increase in canopy size of individual trees and an increase in stand density resulting from the establishment of new individuals. Several instances of treeline advance were also observed. An absence of major natural disturbances or widespread land use change indicates that treeline change is attributable to climate. Results from concurrent dendroecological studies indicate that these dynamics represent only part of the total extent of change to occur during the 20th century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice wedges are presently inactive in white spruce (Picea glauca) forests of eastern Mackenzie Delta as shown by the absence of vein ice above ice wedges, the maintenance of intact breaking cables, and the abundance of rootlets propagating across ridge–trough sequences. At spruce forest sites, near-surface ground cooling rates and minimum near-surface temperatures from the years 2003–2005 were above ice-wedge cracking thresholds. Ground thermal conditions associated with cracking were recorded at a tundra peatland with active ice wedges. Annual mean permafrost temperatures at the spruce forest sites ranged from –1.8 to –2.9 °C, whereas at the tundra peatland, the permafrost was colder than –6 °C. Although winter air temperatures are similar throughout the study region, deeper snow cover, thicker active layers, and warmer permafrost account for the more gradual seasonal cooling and warmer near-surface temperatures recorded at the subarctic forest sites. The subtle ridge to trough relief, 12–35 cm of permafrost above wedge ice, roots up to 80 years old grown across ice wedges, and negligible tritium levels in wedge ice indicate that thermal contraction cracking in the spruce forests has been infrequent throughout much of the last century. The proximity of wedge ice to the base of the aggrading permafrost table and the absence of old spruce roots spanning ice-wedge troughs suggest that ice-wedge cracking did occur in the forest environments during the cold and dry conditions associated with the Little Ice Age and early part of the 20th century. When these ice wedges cracked, minimum temperatures at the top of permafrost were probably at least 3–8 °C colder than presently observed and similar to present conditions at the tundra peatland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Mast seeding is the synchronous and highly variable production of seed by a population of plants. Mast seeding results from the behaviour of individuals; however, little is known about the synchrony of individuals at local scales. 2. We address two primary questions at a within-population (17–36 ha study plots) and individual level: (i) How variable is seed production between and within years? (ii) How synchronized is seed production between individuals? 3. We monitored annual cone production of 356 Picea glauca (white spruce) from 1990 to 2005 within four plots spanning a total distance of 5.3 km in the Yukon Territory, Canada. 4. Spearman correlations ( rs) were conducted to test for synchrony. Overall, the trees were moderately synchronous (mean rs (± SE) of 0.52 ± 0.14), and synchrony was statistically detectable ( rs > 0) over all distances. Individuals < 75 m apart were highly synchronous (0.64 ± 0.18), and correlations dropped to 0.33 ± 0.07 for trees > 3 km apart. There was considerable variation in cone production patterns among pairs of individuals. 5. The number of mast years per plot varied from one to three. During a mast year, many individuals within plots produced large cone crops, with more variability between individuals in low mean cone years. Individual trees had dominant endogenous cycles varying from none to 1–5 years. Forty-four per cent of trees had no significant lag, 23% a negative 1-year lag, and 20% a positive 3-year lag. Basal area did not influence lags, but trees with higher mean cone production throughout the study were more likely to have a 3-year lag compared with no lag. 6. The scale of highest synchrony coincided with the scale at which the dominant seed predator in the area, the territorial red squirrel ( Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), operates. This may be the scale at... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1 Boundaries between forest and tundra ecosystems, tree lines, are expected to advance in altitude and latitude in response to climate warming. However, varied responses to 20th century warming suggest that in addition to temperature, tree line dynamics are mediated by species-specific traits and environmental conditions at landscape and local scales. 2 We examined recent tree line dynamics at six topographically different, but climatically similar, sites in south-west Yukon, Canada. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct changes in density of the dominant tree species, white spruce ( Picea glauca), and to construct static age distributions of willow ( Salix spp.), one of two dominant shrub genera. Data were analysed to identify periods and rates of establishment and mortality and to relate these to past climate. 3 Tree line elevation and stand density increased significantly during the early to mid 20th century. However, this change was not uniform across sites. Spruce advanced rapidly on south-facing slopes and tree line rose 65–85 m in elevation. Tree line did not advance on north-facing slopes, but stand density increased 40–65%. Differences observed between aspects were due primarily to the differential presence of permafrost. Additional variability among sites was related to slope and vegetation type. Results were less conclusive for willow, but evidence for an advance was found at two sites. 4 Increases in stand density were strongly correlated with summer temperatures. The period of rapid change coincided with a 30-year period of above average temperatures, beginning in 1920. The highest correlations were obtained using a forward average of 30–50 years, supporting the hypothesis that tree line dynamics are controlled more by conditions influencing recruitment than by establishment alone. 5 The changes observed at several sites are suggestive of a threshold response and challenge the notion that tree lines respond gradually to climate warming. Overall, the results provide further evidence to support the idea that the pattern and timing of change is contingent on local, landscape, and regional-scale factors, as well as species’ biology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New radiocarbon-dated plant macrofossils provide evidence for black spruce (Picea mariana) and white spruce (Picea glauca) within the unglaciated Yukon Territory at the onset of glacial conditions during the Marine Isotope Stage 3/2 transition, between about 26 000 and 24500 14C yr BP. These data indicate that spruce trees were able to reproduce sexually and grow to maturity within a glacial environment characterized by widespread steppe-tundra vegetation, loess aggradation, and icewedge formation. These trees may have been restricted to rare valley-bottom habitats that provided adequate shelter and moisture similar to those at the present latitudinal tree line. Previously published hypotheses suggest that low Picea frequencies in regional Beringian pollen data point to the local persistence of spruce trees through the last glaciation. Although our data provide evidence for local spruce trees at the onset of the last glaciation, the available macrofossil record is inconclusive regarding the survival of spruce through the Last Glacial Maximum in Eastern Beringia. These new plant macrofossil data require palynologists to reexamine the relationship between Picea pollen frequency and local trees and highlight the importance of integrated pollen- and macrofossil-based paleoecological reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mast seeding in conifers is characterized by the spatially synchronous and temporally variable production of seed cone crops. Large mast seeding events (known as "mast years") can be a visually stunning and ecologically important phenomenon, supporting trophic interactions and survival of seed predators as well as forest regeneration. Documenting patterns in mast seeding is generally labor-intensive, requiring repeated visual cone counts at consistent and widespread locations over long periods to quantify the spatiotemporal variability of cone production. Our goal in this work was to evaluate the correspondence of multispectral vegetation indexes (VIs) from Landsat with ground-based observations of mast seeding in white spruce (Picea glauca) forests of the Kluane region, Yukon, Canada. Given the visual characteristics of mast seeding in white spruce, we tested: 1) whether photosynthesis- and color-oriented VIs can identify senescence of spruce cones in late summer and autumn during mast years, and 2) if moisture-oriented VIs can distinguish the significant drying of seed cones from the surrounding spruce canopy vegetation during that senescence and after seeds are released. We hypothesized that the slope of late season decline in VIs in spruce forests would be related to masting (i.e. , greater decline in VI during mast years). Using generalized linear mixed-effects modeling (GLMM), we compared more than 100 site-year combinations of mast/non-mast observations to develop VI-based regressions. We found some success identifying mast years with moisture-oriented VIs, while models using the photosynthesis- and color-oriented VIs were not supported, given the data. However, we found that models containing multiple VIs from both categories were more successful than any single-VI model, accurately predicting four of sixteen mast events in site observations. We provide compelling evidence that mast-seeding patterns may be detectable using moisture-oriented Landsat observations over large coniferous forest areas. Additional work is warranted to distinguish the signal for mast events from confounding disturbance-related effects and to differentiate variation in VI signals attributable to masting productivity in contrast to effects of climatological variability on reflectance. • Conifer masting has ecological significance but is unexplored via remote sensing. • Landsat vegetation indexes may be useful for detecting masting in white spruce. • Masting is most evident in temporal trends of moisture-oriented VIs in a mast year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]