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Terrestrial and ocean ecosystems are increasingly under threat from an array of anthropogenic pressures. And while threats mount, how people view and value nature is changing. In the United States (U.S.) in particular, there is a shift away from viewing nature as something to 'dominate,' as evidenced in the decline in hunting. However, it is unclear if or how opinions around environmental issues and conservation need might differ when comparing ocean versus terrestrial ecosystems, especially given the prevalence and continued importance of wild capture fishing in the U.S. We employed two national parallel surveys, one focused on oceans, the other land, receiving responses from nearly every state in the U.S. (N = 1,973). While we found only slight, but statistically significant more concern for ocean habitats and animals over terrestrial ecosystems, this did not translate to increased willingness to monetarily support more ocean conservation actions. Using Random Forest models, we also found the best predictor of conservation need was feeling most impacted by environmental issues personally (self and/or community), regardless of ecosystem type. In fact, land versus sea (survey) had the lowest rank in the models, underscoring the importance of general nature-based interactions. Instead, the number of outdoor recreational activities was a highly ranked variable explaining the level of reported impact to self/community, with people who participate in 2 or more activities scoring higher levels of impact, on average. Notably, people who hunt and fish, versus only do one or the other, reported higher levels of impact and participated in more activities overall, providing a more nuanced finding regarding the nature 'dominance hypothesis.' Voting, not political affiliation, was also important in explaining responses, and governmental mechanisms to fund conservation were favored over voluntary. Overall, our results add to the strong existing literature that access and connection to nature is key, but uniquely broad connection may "float all boats," especially when diversified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In randomized clinical trials, treatment effects may vary, and this possibility is referred to as heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE). One way to quantify HTE is to partition participants into subgroups based on individual's risk of experiencing an outcome, then measuring treatment effect by subgroup. Given the limited availability of externally validated outcome risk prediction models, internal models (created using the same dataset in which heterogeneity of treatment analyses also will be performed) are commonly developed for subgroup identification. We aim to compare different methods for generating internally developed outcome risk prediction models for subject partitioning in HTE analysis. Methods: Three approaches were selected for generating subgroups for the 2,441 participants from the United States enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized controlled trial. An extant proportional hazards-based outcomes predictive risk model developed on the overall ASPREE cohort of 19,114 participants was identified and was used to partition United States' participants by risk of experiencing a composite outcome of death, dementia, or persistent physical disability. Next, two supervised non-parametric machine learning outcome classifiers, decision trees and random forests, were used to develop multivariable risk prediction models and partition participants into subgroups with varied risks of experiencing the composite outcome. Then, we assessed how the partitioning from the proportional hazard model compared to those generated by the machine learning models in an HTE analysis of the 5-year absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio for aspirin vs. placebo in each subgroup. Cochran's Q test was used to detect if ARR varied significantly by subgroup. Results: The proportional hazard model was used to generate 5 subgroups using the quintiles of the estimated risk scores; the decision tree model was used to generate 6 subgroups (6 automatically determined tree leaves); and the random forest model was used to generate 5 subgroups using the quintiles of the prediction probability as risk scores. Using the semi-parametric proportional hazards model, the ARR at 5 years was 15.1% (95% CI 4.0–26.3%) for participants with the highest 20% of predicted risk. Using the random forest model, the ARR at 5 years was 13.7% (95% CI 3.1–24.4%) for participants with the highest 20% of predicted risk. The highest outcome risk group in the decision tree model also exhibited a risk reduction, but the confidence interval was wider (5-year ARR = 17.0%, 95% CI= -5.4–39.4%). Cochran's Q test indicated ARR varied significantly only by subgroups created using the proportional hazards model. The hazard ratio for aspirin vs. placebo therapy did not significantly vary by subgroup in any of the models. The highest risk groups for the proportional hazards model and random forest model contained 230 participants each, while the highest risk group in the decision tree model contained 41 participants. Conclusions: The choice of technique for internally developed models for outcome risk subgroups influences HTE analyses. The rationale for the use of a particular subgroup determination model in HTE analyses needs to be explicitly defined based on desired levels of explainability (with features importance), uncertainty of prediction, chances of overfitting, and assumptions regarding the underlying data structure. Replication of these analyses using data from other mid-size clinical trials may help to establish guidance for selecting an outcomes risk prediction modelling technique for HTE analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two-vehicle crashes resulting from distracted driving led to a higher number of fatalities and serious injuries over time. This study utilized machine learning and econometric models to investigate two-vehicle-involved distracted driving crashes from the Crash Report Sampling System within the United States. XGBoost and Random Forest were utilized to identify the top variables based on SHAP value, although mixed logit with unobserved heterogeneity was used to model injury severity. The model results indicate that there is a complex interaction of driver characteristics, such as demographics (male drivers), driver actions (careless driving, driving more than the speed limit of more than 15 mph, hitting a stopped vehicle), a driver without violation history, turning violation, drinking, roadway characteristics (non-interstate highways, undivided and divided roadways with positive barrier, curved roadways, dry surface), environmental conditions (rainy weather), vehicle attributes (motorcycle, displacement volume up to 2500 cc, newer vehicle within five years of crash-involvement), temporal characteristics (4–6 PM, July–September, and year 2017). These findings underscore the importance of driving behavior and roadway design. As such, prioritizing efforts to address distracted driving behavior through driver training and law enforcement, as well as considering its implications for roadway design and maintenance, becomes crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted governments worldwide to implement a range of containment measures, including mass gathering restrictions, social distancing, and school closures. Despite these efforts, vaccines continue to be the safest and most effective means of combating such viruses. Yet, vaccine hesitancy persists, posing a significant public health concern, particularly with the emergence of new COVID-19 variants. To effectively address this issue, timely data is crucial for understanding the various factors contributing to vaccine hesitancy. While previous research has largely relied on traditional surveys for this information, recent sources of data, such as social media, have gained attention. However, the potential of social media data as a reliable proxy for information on population hesitancy, especially when compared with survey data, remains underexplored. This paper aims to bridge this gap. Our approach uses social, demographic, and economic data to predict vaccine hesitancy levels in the ten most populous US metropolitan areas. We employ machine learning algorithms to compare a set of baseline models that contain only these variables with models that incorporate survey data and social media data separately. Our results show that XGBoost algorithm consistently outperforms Random Forest and Linear Regression, with marginal differences between Random Forest and XGBoost. This was especially the case with models that incorporate survey or social media data, thus highlighting the promise of the latter data as a complementary information source. Results also reveal variations in influential variables across the five hesitancy classes, such as age, ethnicity, occupation, and political inclination. Further, the application of models to different MSAs yields mixed results, emphasizing the uniqueness of communities and the need for complementary data approaches. In summary, this study underscores social media data's potential for understanding vaccine hesitancy, emphasizes the importance of tailoring interventions to specific communities, and suggests the value of combining different data sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Skin cancer has a significant impact on the lives of many individuals annually and is recognized as the most prevalent type of cancer. In the United States, an estimated annual incidence of approximately 3.5 million people receiving a diagnosis of skin cancer underscores its widespread prevalence. Furthermore, the prognosis for individuals afflicted with advancing stages of skin cancer experiences a substantial decline in survival rates. This paper is dedicated to aiding healthcare experts in distinguishing between benign and malignant skin cancer cases by employing a range of machine learning and deep learning techniques and different feature extractors and feature selectors to enhance the evaluation metrics. In this paper, different transfer learning models are employed as feature extractors, and to enhance the evaluation metrics, a feature selection layer is designed, which includes diverse techniques such as Univariate, Mutual Information, ANOVA, PCA, XGB, Lasso, Random Forest, and Variance. Among transfer models, DenseNet-201 was selected as the primary feature extractor to identify features from data. Subsequently, the Lasso method was applied for feature selection, utilizing diverse machine learning approaches such as MLP, XGB, RF, and NB. To optimize accuracy and precision, ensemble methods were employed to identify and enhance the best-performing models. The study provides accuracy and sensitivity rates of 87.72% and 92.15%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To investigate high‐risk sociodemographic and environmental determinants of health (SEDH) potentially associated with adult obesity in counties in the United States using machine‐learning techniques. Materials and Methods: We performed a cross‐sectional analysis of county‐level adult obesity prevalence (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2) in the United States using data from the Diabetes Surveillance System 2017. We harvested 49 county‐level SEDH factors that were used in a classification and regression trees (CART) model to identify county‐level clusters. The CART model was validated using a 'hold‐out' set of counties and variable importance was evaluated using Random Forest. Results: Overall, we analysed 2752 counties in the United States, identifying a national median (interquartile range) obesity prevalence of 34.1% (30.2%, 37.7%). The CART method identified 11 clusters with a 60.8% relative increase in prevalence across the spectrum. Additionally, seven key SEDH variables were identified by CART to guide the categorization of clusters, including Physically Inactive (%), Diabetes (%), Severe Housing Problems (%), Food Insecurity (%), Uninsured (%), Population over 65 years (%) and Non‐Hispanic Black (%). Conclusion: There is significant county‐level geographical variation in obesity prevalence in the United States, which can in part be explained by complex SEDH factors. The use of machine‐learning techniques to analyse these factors can provide valuable insights into the importance of these upstream determinants of obesity and, therefore, aid in the development of geo‐specific strategic interventions and optimize resource allocation to help battle the obesity pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research utilizes the Long-Term Pavement Performance database, focusing on devel-oping a predictive model for flexible pavement performance in the Southern United States. Analyzing 367 pavement sections, this study investigates crucial factors influencing asphaltic concrete (AC) pavement deterioration, such as structural and material components, air voids, compaction density, temperature at laydown, traffic load, precipitation, and freeze–thaw cycles. The objective of this study is to develop a predictive machine learning model for AC pavement wheel path cracking (WpCrAr) and the age at which cracking initiates (WpCrAr) as performance indicators. This study thoroughly investigated three ensemble machine learning models, including random forest, extremely randomized trees (ETR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). It was observed that XGBoost, optimized using Bayesian methods, emerged as the most effective among the evaluated models, demonstrating good predictive accuracy, with an R2 of 0.79 for WpCrAr and 0.92 for AgeCrack and mean absolute errors of 1.07 and 0.74, respectively. The most important features influencing crack initiation and progression were identified, including equivalent single axle load (ESAL), pavement age, number of layers, precipitation, and freeze–thaw cycles. This paper also showed the impact of pavement material combinations for base and subgrade layers on the delay of crack initiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has become crucial to have an early prediction model that provides accurate assurance for users about the financial situation of consumers. Recent studies have focused on predicting corporate bankruptcies and credit defaults, not personal bankruptcies. Due to this situation, the present study fills the literature gap by comparing different machine learning algorithms to predict personal bankruptcy. The main objective of the study is to examine the usefulness of machine learning models such as SVM, random forest, AdaBoost, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost in forecasting personal bankruptcy. The study relies on two samples of households (learning and testing) from the Survey of Consumer Finances, which was conducted in the United States. Among the models estimated, LightGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost showed the highest effectiveness. The most important variables used in the models are income, refusal to grant credit, delays in the repayment of liabilities, the revolving debt ratio, and the housing debt ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Procambarus clarkii is a notorious invasive species that has led to ecological concerns owing to its high viability and rapid reproduction. South Korea, a country exposed to a high risk of introduction of invasive species due to active international trade, has suffered from recent massive invasions by invasive species, necessitating the evaluation of potential areas requiring intensive monitoring. In this study, we developed two different types of species distribution models, CLIMEX and random forest, for P. clarkii using occurrence records from the United States. The potential distribution in the United States was predicted along coastal lines and inland regions located below 40°N latitude The model was then applied to evaluate the potential distribution in South Korea, and an ensemble map was constructed to identify the most vulnerable domestic regions. According to both models, the domestic potential distribution was highest in most areas located at low altitudes. In the ensemble model, most of the low-altitude western regions, the eastern coast, and some southern inland regions were predicted to be suitable for the distribution of P. clarkii, and a similar distribution pattern was predicted when the model was projected into the future climate. Through this study, it is possible to secure basic data that can be used for the early monitoring of the introduction and subsequent distribution of P. clarkii. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) is one of the most economically important tree species in the western United States. The species is widely distributed in mid- to high-elevation mountains, so its vulnerability to wind and snow is of concern to foresters. Height-to-diameter (H–D) ratio is an important metric for assessing tree stability and resistance to windstorm and icing damage. But our understanding of the variation in H–D ratio of Engelmann spruce and its driving mechanism is limited. Based on inventory data of 9004 Engelmann spruce trees from 997 permanent plots, this study used the random forest algorithm, an important machine learning method, to develop the H–D ratio model of Engelmann spruce related to competition, site condition, climate, topography and other environmental variables. We used cross-validation to train and optimize H–D ratio model, and then used variable importance ranking and partial dependence plot to quantify and analyze the effects of environmental factors on H–D ratio. Further, structural equation was used to perform path analysis between the response variable and the explanatory variables. The results reveal that competition contributes the most to changes in H–D ratio, followed by site index, topography and climate variables. The H–D ratio is positively affected by competition (DBH dominance and number of neighbors), site index, and May to September precipitation, but negatively affected by elevation. The results of path analysis indicate that the effects of elevation and May to September precipitation on H–D ratio can be mediated by site index. Although we sampled across broad climatic gradients, the effects of climate on H–D ratio were not as large as expected. In conclusion, competition is the primary driver for the variation in H–D ratio of Engelmann spruce, but the influence of environmental conditions including site quality, topography and climate on tree H–D ratio cannot be ignored. When designing management treatments for Engelmann spruce forests, we need to fully consider the potential effects of stand characteristics and environmental factors on tree stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of lidar data to assist with forest inventory is common around the world. However, the determination of tree species is still somewhat elusive. Lidar data collected using UAS (uncrewed aircraft systems) platforms offer high density point cloud data for areas from a few to several hundred hectares. General point cloud metrics computed using these data captured differences in the crown structure that proved useful for species classification. For our study, we manually adjusted plot and tree locations to align field trees and UAS lidar point data and computed common descriptive metrics using a small cylindrical sample of points designed to capture the top three meters and leader of each tree. These metrics were used to train a random forest classifier to differentiate between two conifer species, Douglas fir and western hemlock, common in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Our UAS lidar data had a single swath pulse density of 90 pulses/m2 and an aggregate pulse density of 556 pulses/m2. We trained classification models using both height and intensity metrics, height metrics alone, intensity metrics alone, and a small subset of five metrics, and achieved overall accuracies of 91.8%, 88.7%, 78.6%, and 91.5%, respectively. Overall, we showed that UAS lidar data captured morphological differences between the upper crowns of our two target species and produced a classification model that could be applied over large areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent studies demonstrate high offer decline and organ non‐utilization rates are associated with increased pediatric heart transplant waitlist mortality. We sought to determine which donor, candidate, and offer specific variables most importantly influenced these decisions using only data available at the time of each offer. Methods: Retrospective review of pediatric (<18 years) heart donor offers made to pediatric candidates in the United States between 2010 and 2020. In addition to standard donor, candidate, and offer data available in UNOS, we extracted objective and qualitative valvar and myocardial function data from all available donor echocardiogram reports. Results: During the study period, 5625 pediatric donor hearts produced 30 156 offers to 4905 unique candidates, of which 88.7% of all offers were declined and 39.2% of organs were not utilized by pediatric waitlisted candidates. Of the 60.8% utilized hearts, 89.7% had a 'cumulatively' normal echocardiogram at the time of offer acceptance; 62.9% of hearts not utilized for a pediatric candidate also had a cumulatively normal final echocardiogram. Random forest and logistic regression modeling demonstrated good predictive performance (AUROC ≥0.83) of likelihood to accept when utilizing donor, candidate, and offer specific variables. SHAP variable importance scores demonstrated number of prior offer declines and candidate institution's prior year acceptance rates as the two most important variables influencing offer decisions. Conclusions: Behavioral economics appear to play a significant role in pediatric heart transplant candidate institutions' acceptance practices, even when considering the arguably healthier pediatric donor population. Removal of prior institution's decisions from DonorNet may help increase donor utilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study investigates differences in American English consonants produced by patients who present with various dentofacial disharmonies (DFDs), including severe overbites (Class II), underbites (Class III), and anterior open bites. Previous studies have found that patients with these malocclusion types all produce lingual sibilants and plosives with increased spectral center of gravity and increased spectral variance relative to controls. This result is puzzling since some DFD groups differ from controls in opposite ways, and it is also difficult to interpret because spectral moment measures are affected by a wide range of speech and nonspeech factors. Method: To better understand the articulatory basis of these differences, we apply articulatorily interpretable spectral measures derived from multitaper spectra. Results: We find that all groups of DFD patients produce /s ʃ t tʃ/ with midfrequency spectral peaks that are less prominent than those of the control group, but peak frequency measures are largely the same across all groups. Conclusion: We conclude that the DFD patients differ more in sibilant noise source properties than in front cavity filter properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately predicting the condition rating of a bridge deck is crucial for effective maintenance and repair planning. Despite significant research efforts to develop deterioration models, the efficacy of Random Forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in predicting the condition rating of the nation's bridge decks has remained unexplored. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of these algorithms for deck condition rating prediction at the national level. To achieve this, the study collected bridge data, which includes National Bridge Inventory (NBI), traffic, and climate regions gathered using Geospatial Information Science (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Two datasets were collected: bridge data for a single year of 2020 and historical bridge data covering a five-year period from 2016 to 2020. Three models were trained using 319,404 and 1,246,261 bridge decks in the single-year bridge data and the five-year historical bridge data, respectively. Results show that the use of historical bridge data significantly improves the performance of the models compared to the single-year bridge data. Specifically, the Random Forest model achieved an overall accuracy of 83.4% and an average F1 score of 79.7%. In contrast, the XGBoost model achieved an overall accuracy of 79.4% and an average F1 score of 77.5%, while the ANN model obtained an overall accuracy of 79.7% and an average F1 score of 78.4%. Permutation-based variable importance reveals that NBI, traffic, and climate regions significantly contribute to model development. In conclusion, the Random Forest, XGBoost, and ANN models, trained using updated historical bridge data, provide useful tools for accurately predicting the condition rating of bridge decks in the United States, allowing infrastructure managers to efficiently schedule inspections and allocate maintenance resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new epidemic prediction model that hybridizes several models, such as the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), random forest (RF), and response surface method (RSM). The modeling process based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is particularly suitable for dealing with non-stationary and nonlinear data. ARIMA's timeliness and difference have strong deterministic information extraction ability. RF is robust and stable, with fast speed, and strong generalization ability. Under the adjustability and correspondence of the response surface, the comprehensiveness of the model is well demonstrated. Taking the United States as an example, the proposed ARIMA-RF-RSM model is used to explore the development mechanism of the early epidemic according to the data of the early epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The proposed model has high prediction accuracy (mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 1.97% and root mean square error (RSME) is 7.24%). It helps to take effective prevention and control measures in time. In addition, the model has universal applicability to the analysis of disease transmission in relevant areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of the soil water content (SWC) is important for many aspects of agriculture and must be monitored to maximize crop yield, efficiently use limited supplies of irrigation water, and ensure optimal nutrient management with minimal environmental impact. Single-location sensors are often used to monitor SWC, but a limited number of point measurements is insufficient to measure SWC across most fields since SWC is typically very heterogeneous. To overcome this difficulty, several researchers have used data acquired from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to predict the SWC by using machine learning on a limited number of point measurements acquired across a field. While useful, these methods are limited by the relatively small number of SWC measurements that can be acquired with conventional measurement techniques. This study uses UAV-based data and thousands of SWC measurements acquired using geophysical methods at two different depths and before and after precipitation to predict the SWC using the random forest method across a vineyard in the central United States. Both multispectral data (five reflectance bands and eleven vegetation indices calculated from these bands) and thermal UAV-based data were acquired, and the importance of different reflectance data and vegetation indices in the prediction of SWC was analyzed. Results showed that when both thermal and multispectral data were used to estimate SWC, the thermal data contributed the most to prediction accuracy, although multispectral data were also important. Reflectance data contributed as much or more to prediction accuracy than most vegetation indices. SWC measurements that had a larger sample size and greater penetration depth (~30 cm sampling depth) were more accurately predicted than smaller and shallower SWC estimates (~18 cm sampling depth). The timing of SWC estimation was also important; higher accuracy predictions were achieved in wetter soils than in drier soils, and a light precipitation event also improved prediction accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water table depth (WTD) has a substantial impact on the connection between groundwater dynamics and land surface processes. Due to the scarcity of WTD observations, physically‐based groundwater models are growing in their ability to map WTD at large scales; however, they are still challenged to represent simulated WTD compared to well observations. In this study, we develop a purely data‐driven approach to estimating WTD at continental scale. We apply a random forest (RF) model to estimate WTD over most of the contiguous United States (CONUS) based on available WTD observations. The estimated WTD are in good agreement with well observations, with a Pearson correlation coefficient (r) of 0.96 (0.81 during testing), a Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.93 (0.65 during testing), and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 6.87 m (15.31 m during testing). The location of each grid cell is rated as the most important feature in estimating WTD over most of the CONUS, which might be a surrogate for spatial information. In addition, the uncertainty of the RF model is quantified using quantile regression forests. High uncertainties are generally associated with locations having a shallow WTD. Our study demonstrates that the RF model can produce reasonable WTD estimates over most of the CONUS, providing an alternative to physics‐based modeling for modeling large‐scale freshwater resources. Since the CONUS covers many different hydrologic regimes, the RF model trained for the CONUS may be transferrable to other regions with a similar hydrologic regime and limited observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Depth regulates many attributes of aquatic ecosystems, but relatively few lakes are measured, and existing datasets are biased toward large lakes. To address this, we used a large dataset of maximum (Zmax; n = 16,831) and mean (Zmean; n = 5,881) depth observations to create new depth models, focusing on lakes < 1,000 ha. We then used the models to characterize patterns in lake basin shape and volume. We included terrain metrics, water temperature and reflectance, polygon attributes, and other predictors in a random forest model. Our final models generally outperformed existing models (ZmaxR2=0.35; root mean square error [RMSE] = 8.0 m and ZmeanR2=0.36; RMSE = 3.0 m). Our models show that lake depth followed a Pareto distribution, with 2.8 orders of magnitude fewer lakes for an order of magnitude increase in depth. In addition, despite orders of magnitude variation in surface area, most size classes had a modal maximum depth of ~ 5 m. Concave (bowl‐shaped) lake basins represented 79% of all lakes, but lakes were more convex (funnel‐shaped) as surface area increased. Across the conterminous United States, 9.8% of all lake water was within the top meter of the water column, and 48% in the top 10 m. Excluding the Laurentian Great Lakes, we estimate the total volume in the conterminous United States is 1,057–1,294 km3, depending on whether Zmax or Zmean was modeled. Lake volume also exhibited substantial geographic variation, with high volumes in the upper Midwest, Northeast, and Florida and low volumes in the southwestern United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The serovars of Salmonella enterica display dramatic differences in pathogenesis and host preferences. We developed a process (patent pending) for grouping Salmonella isolates and serovars by their public health risk. We collated a curated set of 12,337 S. enterica isolate genomes from human, beef, and bovine sources in the US. After annotating a virulence gene catalog for each isolate, we used unsupervised random forest methods to estimate the proximity (similarity) between isolates based upon the genomic presentation of putative virulence traits We then grouped isolates (virulence clusters) using hierarchical clustering (Ward's method), used non-parametric bootstrapping to assess cluster stability, and externally validated the clusters against epidemiological virulence measures from FoodNet, the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS), and US federal sampling of beef products. We identified five stable virulence clusters of S. enterica serovars. Cluster 1 (higher virulence) serovars yielded an annual incidence rate of domestically acquired sporadic cases roughly one and a half times higher than the other four clusters combined (Clusters 2–5, lower virulence). Compared to other clusters, cluster 1 also had a higher proportion of infections leading to hospitalization and was implicated in more foodborne and beef-associated outbreaks, despite being isolated at a similar frequency from beef products as other clusters. We also identified subpopulations within 11 serovars. Remarkably, we found S. Infantis and S. Typhimurium subpopulations that significantly differed in genome length and clinical case presentation. Further, we found that the presence of the pESI plasmid accounted for the genome length differences between the S. Infantis subpopulations. Our results show that S. enterica strains associated with highest incidence of human infections share a common virulence repertoire. This work could be updated regularly and used in combination with foodborne surveillance information to prioritize serovars of public health concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensuring food security in precision agriculture requires early prediction of soybean yield at various scales within the United States (U.S.), ranging from international to local levels. Accurate yield estimation is essential in preventing famine by providing insights into food availability during the growth season. Numerous deep learning (DL) algorithms have been developed to estimate soybean yield effectively using time-series remote sensing (RS) data to achieve this goal. However, the training data with short time spans can limit their ability to adapt to the dynamic and nuanced temporal changes in crop conditions. To address this challenge, we designed a 3D-ResNet-BiLSTM model to efficiently predict soybean yield at the county level across the U.S., even when using training data with shorter periods. We leveraged detailed Sentinel-2 imagery and Sentinel-1 SAR images to extract spectral bands, key vegetation indices (VIs), and VV and VH polarizations. Additionally, Daymet data was incorporated via Google Earth Engine (GEE) to enhance the model's input features. To process these inputs effectively, a dedicated 3D-ResNet architecture was designed to extract high-level features. These enriched features were then fed into a BiLSTM layer, enabling accurate prediction of soybean yield. To evaluate the efficacy of our model, its performance was compared with that of well-known models, including the Linear Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and 1D/2D/3D-ResNet models, as well as a 2D-CNN-LSTM model. The data from a short period (2019 to 2020) were used to train all models, while their accuracy was assessed using data from the year 2021. The experimental results showed that the proposed 3D-Resnet-BiLSTM model had a superior performance compared to the other models, achieving remarkable metrics (R2 = 0.791, RMSE = 5.56 Bu Ac−1, MAE = 4.35 Bu Ac−1, MAPE = 9%, and RRMSE = 10.49%). Furthermore, the 3D-ResNet-BiLSTM model showed a 7% higher R2 than the ResNet and RF models and an enhancement of 27% and 17% against the LR and 2D-CNN-LSTM models, respectively. The results highlighted our model's potential for accurate soybean yield predictions, supporting sustainable agriculture and food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Geographic variation in metabolic resources necessary for functional trait expression can set limits on species distributions. For species that need to produce and maintain biomineralized traits for survival, spatial variation in mineral macronutrients may constrain species distributions by limiting the expression of biomineralized traits. Here, we examine whether Oreohelix land snails that express heavily biomineralized shell ornaments are restricted to CaCO3 rock regions, if they incorporate greater amounts of CaCO3 rock carbon in their shell than less biomineralized smooth forms, and if ornamentation increases shell strength. Location: Western United States. Taxon: Oreohelix land snails. Methods: We used random forest classification models at multiple spatial resolutions to evaluate the contribution of topographic, vegetation, climate, and geologic variables in predicting the presence of heavily biomineralized shell ornaments across the range of Oreohelix. We then measured and compared shell biometric variables, 14C/12C ratios, and peak force for fracture for ornamented and smooth forms from calcareous and non‐calcareous substrates. Results: Distance to CaCO3 rock was the most important variable in all models and closer proximity to CaCO3 rock was associated with greater probability of local ornamentation classification. Pairwise comparisons of 14C/12C ratios in closely occurring ornamented vs. smooth population pairs revealed ornamented forms incorporate greater CaCO3 rock carbon than smooth forms. Ornamented types measured in this study were generally heavier and required greater peak force for fracture than smooth forms, except when comparing ornamented forms to smooth forms sampled from CaCO3 rock. Main Conclusions: Biomineralization expression, species distribution, and trait function appear to be constrained by mineral supply in a highly diverse group of land snails. This trait‐environment relationship provides a basis for future investigations of CaCO3 macronutrient constraints on shell form and species distribution in other terrestrial molluscs and has a direct impact on the management of Oreohelix species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVES: To identify cytokine signature clusters in patients with septic shock. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Single academic center in the United States. PATIENTS: Adult (≥ 18 yr old) patients admitted to the medical ICU with septic shock requiring vasoactive medication support. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: One hundred fourteen patients with septic shock completed cytokine measurement at time of enrollment (t1) and 24 hours later (t2). Unsupervised random forest analysis of the change in cytokines over time, defined as delta (t2–t1), identified three clusters with distinct cytokine profiles. Patients in cluster 1 had the lowest initial levels of circulating cytokines that decreased over time. Patients in cluster 2 and cluster 3 had higher initial levels that decreased over time in cluster 2 and increased in cluster 3. Patients in clusters 2 and 3 had higher mortality compared with cluster 1 (clusters 1–3: 11% vs 31%; odds ratio [OR], 3.56 [1.10–14.23] vs 54% OR, 9.23 [2.89–37.22]). Cluster 3 was independently associated with in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio, 5.24; p = 0.005) in multivariable analysis. There were no significant differences in initial clinical severity scoring or steroid use between the clusters. Analysis of either t1 or t2 cytokine measurements alone or in combination did not reveal clusters with clear clinical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal measurement of cytokine profiles at initiation of vasoactive medications and 24 hours later revealed three distinct cytokine signature clusters that correlated with clinical outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption of dicamba-tolerant (DT) soybean in the United States resulted in extensive off-target dicamba damage to non-DT vegetation across soybeanproducing states. Although soybeans are highly sensitive to dicamba, the intensity of observed symptoms and yield losses are affected by the genetic background of genotypes. Thus, the objective of this study was to detect novel marker-trait associations and expand on previously identified genomic regions related to soybean response to off-target dicamba. A total of 551 non-DT advanced breeding lines derived from 232 unique bi-parental populations were phenotyped for off-target dicamba across nine environments for three years. Breeding lines were genotyped using the Illumina Infinium BARCSoySNP6K BeadChip. Filtered SNPs were included as predictors in Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models in a forward stepwise selection loop to identify the combination of SNPs yielding the highest classification accuracy. Both RF and SVM models yielded high classification accuracies (0.76 and 0.79, respectively) with minor extreme misclassifications (observed tolerant predicted as susceptible, and vice-versa). Eight genomic regions associated with off-target dicamba tolerance were identified on chromosomes 6 [Linkage Group (LG) C2], 8 (LG A2), 9 (LG K), 10 (LG O), and 19 (LG L). Although the genetic architecture of tolerance is complex, high classification accuracies were obtained when including the major effect SNP identified on chromosome 6 as the sole predictor. In addition, candidate genes with annotated functions associated with phases II (conjugation of hydroxylated herbicides to endogenous sugar molecules) and III (transportation of herbicide conjugates into the vacuole) of herbicide detoxification in plants were co-localized with significant markers within each genomic region. Genomic prediction models, as reported in this study, can greatly facilitate the identification of genotypes with superior tolerance to off-target dicamba. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is a prerequisite for water management in arid regions. Field based methods estimate point-wise ET accurately, but the challenge is in estimating ET over a region with high accuracies. Machine learning based approaches were taken to estimate ET over a large spatial scale using the Bowen Ratio Energy Balance (BREB) technique. The BREB method depends on terrestrial energy balance equations to estimate ET. Thus, remote sensing-based parameters representing variables in the energy balance equation, and vegetation index representing plant health conditions were used in the model. The study was conducted in the arid areas of the southwestern United States, where dense patches of Salt cedar consume water from the primary water source. The preliminary model used enhanced vegetation index (EVI), global horizontal irradiance (GHI), surface temperature (TS), and relative humidity (RH) as parameters. The k-nearest neighbor method consistently generated poor accuracies. When all the parameters were used, accuracies of the other models varied within 90–94%. When one predictor parameter was dropped, the best model produced accuracies between 90 to 93%, which dropped to 87–92% when a second variable was dropped. Random forest and support vector machine with radial kernel consistently produced the best predictive accuracies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regression algorithms are regularly used for improving the accuracy of satellite precipitation products. In this context, satellite precipitation and topography data are the predictor variables, and gauged-measured precipitation data are the dependent variables. Alongside this, it is increasingly recognised in many fields that combinations of algorithms through ensemble learning can lead to substantial predictive performance improvements. Still, a sufficient number of ensemble learners for improving the accuracy of satellite precipitation products and their large-scale comparison are currently missing from the literature. In this study, we work towards filling in this specific gap by proposing 11 new ensemble learners in the field and by extensively comparing them. We apply the ensemble learners to monthly data from the PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM) gridded datasets that span over a 15-year period and over the entire contiguous United States (CONUS). We also use gauge-measured precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly database, version 2 (GHCNm). The ensemble learners combine the predictions of six machine learning regression algorithms (base learners), namely the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), multivariate adaptive polynomial splines (poly-MARS), random forests (RF), gradient boosting machines (GBM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and each of them is based on a different combiner. The combiners include the equal-weight combiner, the median combiner, two best learners and seven variants of a sophisticated stacking method. The latter stacks a regression algorithm on top of the base learners to combine their independent predictions. Its seven variants are defined by seven different regression algorithms, specifically the linear regression (LR) algorithm and the six algorithms also used as base learners. The results suggest that sophisticated stacking performs significantly better than the base learners, especially when applied using the LR algorithm. It also beats the simpler combination methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a methodology based on web mining techniques for estimating furniture prices using e-commerce data. Data on different public e-commerce sites in the United States were collected and analyzed using web mining methods. Deep learning and random forest algorithms were used to predict the prices of different types of furniture. Bookcase and dresser type furniture, which are widely used in price estimation, were selected. The inquiry identified a collection of eight distinctive attributes linked to furniture items, spanning measurements such as width, depth, and height, alongside features encompassing frame material, partition count, drawer count, color, and price. In preparation for constructing predictive models, a dataset comprising 300 instances was compiled for comprehensive analysis. Models developed based on web mining to predict furniture prices gave satisfactory results. During the testing phase, the random forest algorithm outperformed deep learning, achieving high goodness of fit values of 0.89 and 0.94 for bookcase and dresser furniture, respectively. The results indicate that price estimation for dresser furniture was more accurate than for bookcases in all models. The findings demonstrate that web mining techniques can be used effectively in competitive furniture pricing, with potential to save time and cost in pricing for furniture purchasing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Channel dimensions (width and depth) at varying flows influence a host of instream ecological processes, as well as habitat and biotic features; they are a major consideration in stream habitat restoration and instream flow assessments. Models of widths and depths are often used to assess climate change vulnerability, develop endangered species recovery plans, and model water quality. However, development and application of such models require specific skillsets and resources. To facilitate acquisition of such estimates, we created a dataset of modeled channel dimensions for perennial stream segments across the conterminous United States. We used random forest models to predict wetted width, thalweg depth, bankfull width, and bankfull depth from several thousand field measurements of the National Rivers and Streams Assessment. Observed channel widths varied from <5 to >2000 m and depths varied from <2 to >125 m. Metrics of watershed area, runoff, slope, land use, and more were used as model predictors. The models had high pseudo R2 values (0.70–0.91) and median absolute errors within ±6% to ±21% of the interquartile range of measured values across 10 stream orders. Predicted channel dimensions can be joined to 1.1 million stream segments of the 1:100 K resolution National Hydrography Dataset Plus (version 2.1). These predictions, combined with a rapidly growing body of nationally available data, will further enhance our ability to study and protect aquatic resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about the impacts of historical redlining, a racially discriminatory housing practice, on future or current cumulative children's environmental health burdens. The Southeast has one of the hottest climates in the United States (US) and the severity of extreme heat is expected to increase in the region due to climate change. The southeast also faces high levels of concentrated child poverty and air pollutionrelated inequalities. This study investigates relationships between redlining and combined stressors for multiple dimensions of the environment, including differences in climate change-related temperatures, in Alabama, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. Methods: We combined data on long-term historical ambient PM2.5 and maximum temperature, climate change-related temperature projections, greenspace (normalized differential vegetative index [NDVI)) and child poverty. Multilevel linear regression and cluster analysis tested associations between Homeowners' Loan Corporation grades (A through D) and multiple environmental stressors, including differences in child poverty and climate change-related temperatures. Results: Relative to grade A neighborhoods, redlined neighborhoods are associated with higher historical maximum temperature (β = 0.07 [95% CI: 0.03, 0.11]), average temperatures in 2080 (β = 0.03 [0.00, 0.05]), summertime temperatures in 2080 (β = 0.06 [0.03, 0.09]), and changes in summertime temperatures (β = 0.006 [0.002, 0.01]). Average PM2.5 (β = 0.24 [0.16, 0.32]) and NDVI (β = -0.06 [-0.08, -0.04]) are significantly worse in redlined neighborhoods. Cluster analysis identified redlined neighborhoods vulnerable to heat-related climate change impacts and combined high child poverty and environmental stressors. Conclusions: Historical redlining is associated with climate-related heat burdens in the Southeast US. This study can inform targeted climate adaptation efforts for communities impacted by structural racism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Streamflow-duration assessment methods (SDAMs) are rapid, indicator-based tools for classifying streamflow duration (e.g., intermittent vs perennial flow) at the reach scale. Indicators are easily assessed stream properties used as surrogates of flow duration, which is too resource intensive to measure directly for many reaches. Invertebrates are commonly used as SDAM indicators because many are not highly mobile, and different species have life stages that require flow for different durations and times of the year. The objectives of this study were to 1) identify invertebrate taxa that can be used as SDAM indicators to distinguish between stream reaches having intermittent and perennial flow, 2) to compare indicator strength across different taxonomic and numeric resolutions, and 3) to assess the relative importance of season and habitat type on the ability of invertebrates to predict streamflow-duration class. We used 2 methods, random forest models and indicator species analysis, to analyze aquatic and terrestrial invertebrate data (presence/absence, density, and biomass) at the family and genus levels from 370 samples collected from both erosional and depositional habitats during both wet and dry seasons. In total, 36 intermittent and 53 perennial reaches were sampled along 31 forested headwater streams in 4 level II ecoregions across the United States. Random forest models for family- and genus-level datasets had stream classification accuracy ranging from 88.9 to 93.2%, with slightly higher accuracy for density than for presence/absence and biomass datasets. Season (wet/dry) tended to be a stronger predictor of streamflow-duration class than habitat (erosional/depositional). Many taxa at the family (58.8%) and genus level (61.6%) were collected from both intermittent and perennial reaches, and most taxa that were exclusive to 1 streamflow-duration class were rarely collected. However, 23 family-level or higher taxa (20 aquatic and 3 terrestrial) and 44 aquatic genera were identified as potential indicators of streamflow-duration class for forested headwater streams. The utility of the potential indicators varied across level II ecoregions in part because of representation of intermittent and perennial reaches in the dataset but also because of variable ecological responses to drying among species. Aquatic invertebrates have been an important field indicator of perennial reaches in existing SDAMs, but our findings highlight how including aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates as indicators of intermittent reaches can further maximize the data collected for streamflow-duration classifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improved understanding of characteristics related to weather forecast accuracy in the United States may help meteorologists develop more accurate predictions and may help Americans better interpret their daily weather forecasts. This article examines how spatio-temporal characteristics across the United States relate to forecast accuracy. We cluster the United States into six weather regions based on weather and geographic characteristics and analyze the patterns in forecast accuracy within each weather region. We then explore the relationship between climate characteristics and forecast accuracy within these weather regions. We conclude that patterns in forecast errors are closely related to the unique climates that characterize each region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Despite a recent global decrease in suicide rates, death by suicide has increased in the United States. It is therefore imperative to identify the risk factors associated with suicide attempts to combat this growing epidemic. In this study, we aim to identify potential risk factors of suicide attempt using geospatial features in an Artificial intelligence framework. Methods: We use iterative Random Forest, an explainable artificial intelligence method, to predict suicide attempts using data from the Million Veteran Program. This cohort incorporated 405,540 patients with 391,409 controls and 14,131 attempts. Our predictive model incorporates multiple climatic features at ZIPcode-level geospatial resolution. We additionally consider demographic features from the American Community Survey as well as the number of firearms and alcohol vendors per 10,000 people to assess the contributions of proximal environment, access to means, and restraint decrease to suicide attempts. In total 1,784 features were included in the predictive model. Results: Our results show that geographic areas with higher concentrations of married males living with spouses are predictive of lower rates of suicide attempts, whereas geographic areas where males are more likely to live alone and to rent housing are predictive of higher rates of suicide attempts. We also identified climatic features that were associated with suicide attempt risk by age group. Additionally, we observed that firearms and alcohol vendors were associated with increased risk for suicide attempts irrespective of the age group examined, but that their effects were small in comparison to the top features. Discussion: Taken together, our findings highlight the importance of social determinants and environmental factors in understanding suicide risk among veterans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Some studies have established associations between the prevalence of new-onset asthma and asthma exacerbation and socioeconomic and environmental determinants. However, research remains limited concerning the shape of these associations, the importance of the risk factors, and how these factors vary geographically. Objective: We aimed (1) to examine ecological associations between asthma prevalence and multiple socio-physical determinants in the United States; and (2) to assess geographic variations in their relative importance. Methods: Our study design is cross sectional based on county-level data for 2020 across the United States. We obtained self-reported asthma prevalence data of adults aged 18 years or older for each county. We applied conventional and geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) to investigate the associations between asthma prevalence and socioeconomic (e.g., poverty) and environmental determinants (e.g., air pollution and green space). To enhance the interpretability of the GWRF, we (1) assessed the shape of the associations through partial dependence plots, (2) ranked the determinants according to their global importance scores, and (3) mapped the local variable importance spatially. Results: Of the 3059 counties, the average asthma prevalence was 9.9 (standard deviation ± 0.99). The GWRF outperformed the conventional random forest. We found an indication, for example, that temperature was inversely associated with asthma prevalence, while poverty showed positive associations. The partial dependence plots showed that these associations had a non-linear shape. Ranking the socio-physical environmental factors concerning their global importance showed that smoking prevalence and depression prevalence were most relevant, while green space and limited language were of minor relevance. The local variable importance measures showed striking geographical differences. Conclusion: Our findings strengthen the evidence that socio-physical environments play a role in explaining asthma prevalence, but their relevance seems to vary geographically. The results are vital for implementing future asthma prevention programs that should be tailor-made for specific areas. Highlights: Asthma risk and protective factors were assessed with explainable geospatial machine learning. The geographically weighted random forest outperformed its conventional aspatial counterpart. We found striking non-linear environment-asthma associations. Smoking and depression were the most influential risk factors; green space was among the least. The relevance of socioeconomic and environmental factors varied geographically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The accurate encoding of operation notes is essential for activity‐based funding and workforce planning. The aim of this project was to evaluate the procedural coding accuracy of vitrectomy and to develop machine learning, natural language processing (NLP) models that may assist with this task. Methods: This retrospective cohort study involved vitrectomy operation notes between a 21‐month period at the Royal Adelaide Hospital. Coding of procedures were based on the Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS)—the Australian equivalent to the Current Procedural Terminology (CPT®) codes used in the United States. Manual encoding was conducted for all procedures and reviewed by two vitreoretinal consultants. XGBoost, random forest and logistic regression models were developed for classification experiments. A cost‐based analysis was subsequently conducted. Results: There were a total of 1724 procedures with individual codes performed within 617 vitrectomy operation notes totalling $1 528 086.60 after manual review. A total of 1147 (66.5%) codes were missed in the original coding that amounted to $736 539.20 (48.2%). Our XGBoost model had the highest classification accuracy (94.6%) in the multi‐label classification for the five most common procedures. The XGBoost model was the most successful model in identifying operation notes with two or more missing codes with an AUC of 0.87 (95% CI 0.80–0.92). Conclusions: Machine learning has been successful in the classification of vitrectomy operation note encoding. We recommend a combined human and machine learning approach to clinical coding as automation may facilitate more accurate reimbursement and enable surgeons to prioritise higher quality clinical care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluate the determinants of officer support for their agency participating in the 1033 Program: a program that facilitates the flow of military hardware to local law enforcement agencies. In doing so, we provide insight into why officers demand such equipment, which, in turn, may partially explain patterns of program participation and equipment usage. We utilize a series of random forest models to examine survey data collected from officers in a large police department, finding that being White and exhibiting animus toward minority communities are highly predictive of officer support across models. Our findings validate long‐held public concerns regarding the distributional patterns and consequences of 1033 transfers: concerns that have led to a number of proposed policy changes at the state and federal levels meant to restrict program usage (e.g., EO‐13688, HR‐1694, MO HB‐330). Policy makers should consider how out‐group animus may drive distributional patterns and usage when considering policy reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constructing models that accurately predict Fusarium head blight (FHB) epidemics and are also amenable to large-scale deployment is a challenging task. In the United States, the emphasis has been on simple logistic regression (LR) models, which are easy to implement but may suffer from lower accuracies when compared with more complicated, harder-to-deploy (over large geographies) model frameworks such as functional or boosted regressions. This article examined the plausibility of random forests (RFs) for the binary prediction of FHB epidemics as a possible mediation between model simplicity and complexity without sacrificing accuracy. A minimalist set of predictors was also desirable rather than having the RF model use all 90 candidate variables as predictors. The input predictor set was filtered with the aid of three RF variable selection algorithms (Boruta, varSelRF, and VSURF), using resampling techniques to quantify the variability and stability of selected variable sets. Postselection filtering produced 58 competitive RF models with no more than 14 predictors each. One variable representing temperature stability in the 20 days before anthesis was the most frequently selected predictor. This was a departure from the prominence of relative humidity-based variables previously reported in LR models for FHB. The RF models had overall superior predictive performance over the LR models and may be suitable candidates for use by the Fusarium Head Blight Prediction Center. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human injury in a vehicle crash is a critical subject of analysis. The injury severity of a person in crashes helps the transportation agency to determine crash conditions. This will in turn helps road safety manager or engineer to implement the counter measures and to improve and enhance the level of safety at the roadside. In this research study, the injury severity of a person in crash analysis across angles is analyzed using various machine learning models. For the injury severity prediction 2018 Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) dataset of United States is used. The person injury severity is predicted with the help of machine learning models like Multinomial logistic regression, Naive Bayes Classifier, Random Forest, Extra Trees, XGB Classifier and optimized XGBoost model. It is observed that optimized XGBoost method performs better than other machine learning models in terms of performance metrics like Accuracy, Error rate, Cohen-kappa-score, Loss and Misclassified samples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pollen reconstructions of tree genera in North America since glaciation are available, but species distributions predicted for paleoclimate based on tree inventories may inform knowledge gaps. Here I examined the distributions of 25 species or species groups from 20 000 years ago (ka) to 5 ka to give potential paleoecological ranges of boreal and temperate tree species. I also assessed the effects of correlated climate variables on species distribution models for current and past climate, which were modeled with the non‐linear random forests classifier. Climate change alone was enough to create unique, species‐specific paths that did not run directly north. At 20 ka, black spruce (Picea mariana) occurred as far north as the ice sheet and most boreal species generally may have extended as far south as 32°N, or the northern southeastern United States. Temperate eastern species may have extended as far north as 39°N in low‐elevation locations and temperate eastern species displayed both continuous and clustered distributions across the southeastern United States. Rate of movement was 5.5 km per century between 20 and 14 ka, 13.3 km per century between 14 and 10 ka, and 3.25 km per century between 10 and 5 ka. Species retreated southward between 7 and 5 ka. Regarding correlation, models with all variables had greater accuracy than models with the two most important variables, which had greater accuracy than models with two variables of intermediate importance, demonstrating both reduced accuracy with omission of relevant variables and isolation of important variables that improve accuracy in models with correlated climate variables. Models from different climates identified the same two most important variables and ranked the remaining variables similarly, revealing robustness in the models over time. Distribution models agreed with pollen reconstructions regarding timing and rate of change, while generating detailed species‐specific information about movement trajectories and velocities, latitudinal extents, and distribution continuities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying determinants of smoking cessation is critical for developing optimal cessation treatments and interventions. Machine learning (ML) is becoming more prevalent for smoking cessation success prediction in treatment programs. However, only individuals with an intention to quit smoking cigarettes participate in such programs, which limits the generalizability of the results. This study applies data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH), a United States longitudinal nationally representative survey, to select primary determinants of smoking cessation and to train ML classification models for predicting smoking cessation among the general population. An analytical sample of 9,281 adult current established smokers from the PATH survey wave 1 was used to develop classification models to predict smoking cessation by wave 2. Random forest and gradient boosting machines were applied for variable selection, and the SHapley Additive explanation method was used to show the effect direction of the top-ranked variables. The final model predicted wave 2 smoking cessation for current established smokers in wave 1 with an accuracy of 72% in the test dataset. The validation results showed that a similar model could predict wave 3 smoking cessation of wave 2 smokers with an accuracy of 70%. Our analysis indicated that more past 30 days e-cigarette use at the time of quitting, fewer past 30 days cigarette use before quitting, ages older than 18 at smoking initiation, fewer years of smoking, poly tobacco past 30-days use before quitting, and higher BMI resulted in higher chances of cigarette cessation for adult smokers in the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although there is general consensus about the behavioural, clinical and sociodemographic variables that are risk factors for reoffending, optimal statistical modelling of these variables is less clear. Machine learning techniques offer an approach that may provide greater accuracy than traditional methods. Aim: To compare the performance of advanced machine learning techniques (classification trees and random forests) to logistic regression in classifying correlates of rearrest among adult probationers and parolees in the United States. Method: Data were from the subgroup of people on probation or parole who had taken part in the National Survey on Drug Use and Health for the years 2015–2019. We compared the performance of logistic regression, classification trees and random forests, using receiver operating characteristic curves, to examine the correlates of arrest within the past 12 months. Results: We found that machine learning techniques, specifically random forests, possessed significantly greater accuracy than logistic regression in classifying correlates of arrest. Conclusions: Our findings suggest the potential for enhanced risk classification. The next step would be to develop applications for criminal justice and clinical practice to inform better support and management strategies for former offenders in the community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Diphenhydramine (DPH) is an antihistamine medication that in overdose can result in anticholinergic symptoms and serious complications, including arrhythmia and coma. We aimed to compare the value of various machine learning (ML) models, including light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), logistic regression (LR), and random forest (RF), in the outcome prediction of DPH poisoning. Materials and Methods: We used the National Poison Data System database and included all of the human exposures of DPH from January 01, 2017 to December 31, 2017, and excluded those cases with missing information, duplicated cases, and those who reported co-ingestion. Data were split into training and test datasets, and three ML models were compared. We developed confusion matrices for each, and standard performance metrics were calculated. Results: Our study population included 53,761 patients with DPH exposure. The most common reasons for exposure, outcome, chronicity of exposure, and formulation were captured. Our results showed that the average precision-recall area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84. LGBM and RF had the highest performance (average AUC of 0.91), followed by LR (average AUC of 0.90). The specificity of the models was 87.0% in the testing groups. The precision of models was 75.0%. Recall (sensitivity) of models ranged between 73% and 75% with an F1 score of 75.0%. The overall accuracy of LGBM, LR, and RF models in the test dataset was 74.8%, 74.0%, and 75.1%, respectively. In total, just 1.1% of patients (mostly those with major outcomes) received physostigmine. Conclusion: Our study demonstrates the application of ML in the prediction of DPH poisoning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research examining the effects of traumatic events on undocumented Latinx immigrants often focuses on assessing posttraumatic stress disorder or general psychological distress, which may obscure the field's understanding of how trauma exposure impacts other common mental health disorders (e.g., anxiety, depression). This study sought to assess the cumulative, individual, and timing effects of immigration‐related traumatic events on anxiety and depressive symptoms among undocumented Latinx immigrants. Participants were 253 undocumented Latinx immigrants recruited using respondent‐driven sampling who reported their history of immigration‐related trauma exposure and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Results suggest that cumulative immigration‐related trauma was significantly associated with increases in anxiety and depressive symptoms, τ =.26. Significant positive correlations were found for cumulative trauma at each point in the immigration process (i.e., before immigration, while in transit to the United States, and while living in the United States) such that increases in the number of events were associated with higher anxiety and depressive symptom levels, τ =.11–.29. Trauma frequency differed throughout the immigration process such that some events more commonly occurred before immigration or during transit to the United States, whereas others occurred while an individual resided in the United States. Random forest algorithms uncovered differences in the relative importance of individual traumatic events in explaining the variance of depressive, R2 =.13, and anxiety symptoms, R2 =.14. The findings highlight the importance of providing trauma‐informed care when treating anxiety and depression among undocumented Latinx immigrants and considering multidimensional epidemiological approaches in assessing immigration‐related trauma. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Predictive modeling is an integral part of broad-scale conservation efforts, and machine-learning (ML) models are increasingly being used for this purpose. But like all other predictive methods, ML models are susceptible to the problem of extrapolation. Objectives: Our objectives were to promote the quantification of spatial extrapolation risk associated with ML models, and to encourage application of this information to help assess the reliability of ML model predictions for conservation decisions. Methods: Using mean abundance and presence/absence data for Brewer's Sparrow (Spizella breweri)—a declining sagebrush obligate in the western United States—along with spatially optimized measures of landscape conditions, we demonstrated how to quantify the probability of spatial extrapolation by random forest and boosted regression tree models. Results: For both model types and both bird response variables, models used to predict extrapolation risk were highly accurate, implying that the approach we demonstrated can provide sound results for assessing the spatial extrapolation risk for new observations that were not involved in model training. Conclusions: Spatial extrapolation risk should be quantified and accounted for in decisions about whether to use ML model predictions in conservation efforts because these actions will help to avoid the use of unreliable predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annual turnover of home care workers represents a huge loss of revenue and is a key source of inefficiency in the home health care industry. In this article, we propose a data-driven approach to monitor employee churn and to capture the evolution of employee intent to leave. Unlike most papers in the literature, we use machine learning techniques to analyze over 2 million visits in the US, Canada, and Australia between 2016 and 2019. Results show that the gap between the number of hours worked and in the contract is the most important factor to predict employee intent to leave, which means an employee should be given as many hours as requested in the contract to improve retention. Secondary results show that having diverse shift lengths and continuity in services and patients seem to be associated with less turnover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate crop type mapping is essential for crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. Recently, various machine learning methods have been increasingly used for crop type mapping, but they often lose their validity when directly applied to other regions and years due to differences in the distribution of source and target data, that is, domain shift. To address the problem, we developed a deep adaptation crop classification network (DACCN) based on the idea of unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA). The proposed DACCN mainly consists of two parts, a feature extractor that converts the original input into high-level representations, and a domain aligner where the discrepancy between source and target distributions is measured using multiple kernel variant of maximum mean discrepancy (MK-MMD). Four states in the United States (U.S.) Corn Belt and two provinces in northeastern China were used as study areas, where samples used for model building and accuracy evaluation were collected based on time-series Sentinel-2 imagery and reference maps in 2018 and 2019. Then, three experiments were designed to verify the transferability of DACCN across space, time, and space–time, respectively. In each experiment, the proposed DACCN was compared to deep crop classification network (DCCN), a model with a similar structure to DACCN but without the domain adaptation mechanism, and two machine learning methods, random forest (RF) and support vector machines (SVM). The experimental results showed that DACCN outperformed other models in most transfer cases with overall classification accuracies ranging from 0.835 to 0.922. The DACCN also performed better in spatially continuous mapping with its predicted crop type maps more consistent with the reference ones. As an innovative application of transfer learning in crop type mapping, the methodology proposed in this study effectively addressed the problem of missing labels in target domains and alleviated the negative impact of domain shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND. West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. OBJECTIVES. Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. METHODS. We developed a predictive model of contemporary mean annual WNV incidence using U.S. county-level case reports from 2005 to 2019 and seasonally averaged climate variables. We used a random forest model that had an out-of-sample model performance of 혙² =0.61. RESULTS. Our model accurately captured the V-shaped area of higher WNV incidence that extends from states on the Canadian border south through the middle of the Great Plains. It also captured a region of moderate WNV incidence in the southern Mississippi Valley. The highest levels of WNV incidence were in regions with dry and cold winters and wet and mild summers. The random forest model classified counties with average winter precipitation levels <23.3 mm/month as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. DISCUSSION. We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid expansion of exotic saltcedar along riparian corridors has dramatically altered the landscape structure and ecological function of riparian habitats in the western United States. The development of accurate and reproducible mapping methods with remote sensing plays an indispensable role in the timely monitoring of saltcedar, re-evaluating its ecological functions, and establishing effective control measures. The utmost challenge for achieving this goal is manifested as the lack of time series of remote sensing images to capture the saltcedar phenology adequately. To this end, the newly available Landsat 9 images, combined with its counterpart of Landsat 8, offer a precious opportunity to compensate for the temporal image shortage. To understand Landsat 9 in the saltcedar classification and to discover helpful information for its application, this study presents the first attempt to classify saltcedar using intra-annual Landsat 8 and Landsat 9 images. We adopted two machine learning algorithms, support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF), to compare the performance of Landsat 9 and Landsat 8 for intra-annual saltcedar classification. In addition, we investigated the respective contribution of each spectral band to the overall performance and identified the optimal time window for saltcedar classification. The results indicated that the difference in classification performance between Landsat 9 and Landsat 8 was insignificant. The shortwave infrared bands associated with both Landsat 8 & 9 have contributed most to the process of saltcedar identification. Image acquired in July, November, and December yielded better results than other months for saltcedar classification. It is concluded that Landsat 8 & 9 constellation has the potential to refine saltcedar classification accuracy on larger spatial and temporal scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Trauma is a serious medical and economic burden worldwide, and patients with traumatic injuries have a poor survival rate after cardiac arrest. The authors developed a prediction model specific to prehospital trauma care and used machine learning techniques to increase its accuracy. Methods: This retrospective observational study analyzed data from patients with blunt trauma injuries due to traffic accidents and falls from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2019. The data were collected from the National Emergency Medical Services Information System, which stores emergency medical service activity records nationwide in the United States. A random forest algorithm was used to develop a machine learning model. Results: The prediction model had an area under the curve of 0.95 and a negative predictive value of 0.99. The feature importance of the predictive model was highest for the AVPU (Alert, Verbal, Pain, Unresponsive) scale, followed by oxygen saturation (SpO2). Among patients who were progressing to cardiac arrest, the cutoff value was 89% for SpO2 in nonalert patients. Conclusions: The machine learning model was highly accurate in identifying patients who did not develop cardiac arrest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objective: Computer-based neurocognitive tests are widely used in sport-related concussion management, but the performance of these tests is not well understood in the participant population with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and/or learning disorder (LD). This research estimates the sensitivity and specificity performance of the Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT) computer-based neurocognitive test in identifying concussion in this population. Methods: Study participants consisted of collegiate university athletes and military service academy cadets from the National Collegiate Athletic Association-Department of Defense CARE Consortium who completed the ImPACT test between 2014 and 2021. Participants who self-identified as belonging to one of the subgroups of interest (ADHD with or without LD [ADHD:LD+/−], LD with or without ADHD [LD:ADHD+/−], ADHD and/or LD [ADHD a/o LD]) and completed a baseline (1874 ADHD:LD+/−, 779 LD:ADHD+/−, 2338 ADHD a/o LD) or 24–48 h post-concussion (175 ADHD:LD+/−, 77 LD:ADHD+/−, 216 ADHD a/o LD) ImPACT assessment were included. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated using a normative data method and three machine learning classification methods: logistic regression, classification and regression tree, and random forest. Results: Using the four methods, participants with ADHD:LD+/− had sensitivities that ranged from 0.474 to 0.697, and specificities that ranged from 0.538 to 0.686. Participants with LD:ADHD+/− had sensitivities that ranged from 0.455 to 0.688, and specificities that ranged from 0.456 to 0.588. For participants with ADHD a/o LD, sensitivities ranged from 0.542 to 0.755, and specificities ranged from 0.451 to 0.724. Conclusions: For all subgroups and analytical methods, the results illustrate sensitivity and specificity values below typically accepted levels indicative of clinical utility. These findings support that using ImPACT alone may be insufficient to inform concussion diagnoses and encourages the use of a multi-dimensional concussion assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geospatial data and tools evolve as new technologies are developed and landscape change occurs over time. As a result, these data may become outdated and inadequate for supporting critical habitat-related work across the international boundary in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Bird Conservation Region (BCR 33) due to the area's complex vegetation communities and the discontinuity in data availability across the United States (US) and Mexico (MX) border. This research aimed to produce the first 30 m continuous land cover map of BCR 33 by prototyping new methods for desert vegetation classification using the Random Forest (RF) machine learning (ML) method. The developed RF classification model utilized multitemporal Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager spectral and vegetation index data from the period of 2013–2020, and phenology metrics tailored to capture the unique growing seasons of desert vegetation. Our RF model achieved an overall classification F-score of 0.80 and an overall accuracy of 91.68%. Our results portrayed the vegetation cover at a much finer resolution than existing land cover maps from the US and MX portions of the study area, allowing for the separation and identification of smaller habitat pockets, including riparian communities, which are critically important for desert wildlife and are often misclassified or nonexistent in current maps. This early prototyping effort serves as a proof of concept for the ML and data fusion methods that will be used to generate the final high-resolution land cover map of the entire BCR 33 region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]