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This study compares the performance of 12 regional chemical transport models (CTMs) from the third phase of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia III) on simulating the particulate matter (PM) over East Asia (EA) in 2010. The participating models include the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ; v4.7.1 and v5.0.2), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System coupled with CMAQ (RAMS-CMAQ; v4.7.1 and v5.0.2), the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem; v3.6.1 and v3.7.1), Goddard Earth Observing System coupled with chemistry (GEOS-Chem), a non-hydrostatic model coupled with chemistry (NHM-Chem), the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS) and the NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF). This study investigates three model processes as the possible reasons for different model performances on PM. (1) Models perform very differently in the gas–particle conversion of sulfur (S) and oxidized nitrogen (N). The model differences in sulfur oxidation ratio (50 %) are of the same magnitude as that in SO42- concentrations. The gas–particle conversion is one of the main reasons for different model performances on fine mode PM. (2) Models without dust emission modules can perform well on PM 10 at non-dust-affected sites but largely underestimate (up to 50 %) the PM 10 concentrations at dust sites. The implementation of dust emission modules in the models has largely improved the model accuracies at dust sites (reduce model bias to -20 %). However, both the magnitude and distribution of dust pollution are not fully captured. (3) The amounts of modeled depositions vary among models by 75 %, 39 %, 21 % and 38 % for S wet, S dry, N wet and N dry depositions, respectively. Large inter-model differences are found in the washout ratios of wet deposition (at most 170 % in India) and dry deposition velocities (generally 0.3–2 cm s -1 differences over inland regions). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the significant progress in improving chemical transport models (CTMs), applications of these modeling endeavors are still subject to large and complex model uncertainty. The Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia III (MICS-Asia III) has provided the opportunity to assess the capability and uncertainty of current CTMs in East Asian applications. In this study, we have evaluated the multi-model simulations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and ammonia (NH3) over China under the framework of MICS-Asia III. A total of 13 modeling results, provided by several independent groups from different countries and regions, were used in this study. Most of these models used the same modeling domain with a horizontal resolution of 45 km and were driven by common emission inventories and meteorological inputs. New observations over the North China Plain (NCP) and Pearl River Delta (PRD) regions were also available in MICS-Asia III, allowing the model evaluations over highly industrialized regions. The evaluation results show that most models captured the monthly and spatial patterns of NO2 concentrations in the NCP region well, though NO2 levels were slightly underestimated. Relatively poor performance in NO2 simulations was found in the PRD region, with larger root-mean-square error and lower spatial correlation coefficients, which may be related to the coarse resolution or inappropriate spatial allocations of the emission inventories in the PRD region. All models significantly underpredicted CO concentrations in both the NCP and PRD regions, with annual mean concentrations that were 65.4 % and 61.4 % underestimated by the ensemble mean. Such large underestimations suggest that CO emissions might be underestimated in the current emission inventory. In contrast to the good skills for simulating the monthly variations in NO2 and CO concentrations, all models failed to reproduce the observed monthly variations in NH3 concentrations in the NCP region. Most models mismatched the observed peak in July and showed negative correlation coefficients with the observations, which may be closely related to the uncertainty in the monthly variations in NH3 emissions and the NH3 gas–aerosol partitioning. Finally, model intercomparisons have been conducted to quantify the impacts of model uncertainty on the simulations of these gases, which are shown to increase with the reactivity of species. Models contained more uncertainty in the NH3 simulations. This suggests that for some highly active and/or short-lived primary pollutants, like NH3 , model uncertainty can also take a great part in the forecast uncertainty in addition to the emission uncertainty. Based on these results, some recommendations are made for future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatiotemporal variations of ozone (O3) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) mixing ratios from 14 state-of-the-art chemical transport models (CTMs) are intercompared and evaluated with O3 observations in East Asia, within the framework of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia Phase III (MICS-Asia III). This study was designed to evaluate the capabilities and uncertainties of current CTMs simulations for Asia and to provide multi-model estimates of pollutant distributions. These models were run by 14 independent groups working in China, Japan, South Korea, the United States and other countries/regions. Compared with the previous phase of MICS-Asia (MICS-Asia II), the evaluation with observations was extended from 4 months to 1 full year across China and the western Pacific Rim. In general, model performance levels for O3 varied widely by region and season. Most models captured the key patterns of monthly and diurnal variation of surface O3 and its precursors in the North China Plain and western Pacific Rim but failed to do so for the Pearl River Delta. A significant overestimation of surface O3 was evident from May to September/October and from January to May over the North China Plain, the western Pacific Rim and the Pearl River Delta. Comparisons drawn from observations show that the considerable diversity in O3 photochemical production partly contributed to this overestimation and to high levels of inter-model variability in O3 for North China. In terms of O3 soundings, the ensemble average of models reproduced the vertical structure for the western Pacific, but overestimated O3 levels to below 800 hPa in the summer. In the industrialized Pearl River Delta, the ensemble average presented an overestimation for the lower troposphere and an underestimation for the middle troposphere. The ensemble average of 13 models for O3 did not always exhibit superior performance compared with certain individual models in contrast with its superior value for Europe. This finding suggests that the spread of ensemble-model values does not represent all of the uncertainties of O3 or that most MICS-Asia III models missed key processes. This study improved the performance of modeling O3 in March at Japanese sites compared with MICS-Asia II. However, it overpredicted surface O3 concentrations for western Japan in July, which was not found by MICS-Asia II. Major challenges still remain with regard to identifying the sources of bias in surface O3 over East Asia in CTMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Springtime is the biomass burning (BB) season in Indochina. BB emissions are transported to East Asia and Taiwan at elevations of between 2000 and 4000 m and then transported downward to the near-surface layer when weather conditions are favorable. In this study, a numerical model, the Weather Research Forecast with Chemistry (WRF–Chem) model with tracer simulation was employed to explore the downward transport mechanisms and evaluate their potential effects on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and near-surface layer during the springtime (Feb.–April) in 2018. Ambient backscatter was measured through LiDAR, aerosol optical depth was measured by MODIS and Himawari-8 satellites and by ground observations from the stations of AERONET. The data were applied to identify the transport mechanisms and evaluate the performance of the model. We summarized the downward transport mechanisms surrounding Taiwan, including the thermal effects of mountain downslope circulations (MDC), frontal secondary circulation (FSC) downward transport, and the mixing of MDC and FSC (MMF). Over Taiwan, the contributions of BB emissions for the MDC to the near-surface layer (<500 m), PBL (<1500 m), and free atmosphere (1500–6000 m) were 0.4%, 4.7%, and >95%, respectively, during springtime in 2018. For the FSC (MMF) mechanisms, the BB contributions to the near-surface layer, PBL, and free atmosphere were 2.5% (3.3%), 15.7% (17.1%), and 84.3% (82.9%), respectively. MMF occurred the most frequently among these three mechanisms and had the largest effect on the near-surface layer and PBL. The downward contributions of BB in different regions, including Taiwan, southern China, and the East China Sea (ECS), were also evaluated. Southern China had the highest value (11.0% [2.1%]) in the PBL (near-surface layer), followed by Taiwan and the ECS (8.2% [1.2%] and 4.5% [0.4%]). Overall, this research fills a gap in our understanding of the mechanisms by which BB emissions are transported to the surface and how they affect air quality in East Asia in general and Taiwan in particular. • We analyzed the BB emissions transport from Indochina to East Asia in general. • The downward transport mechanisms of aloft BB emissions have been explored. • The Impacts of BB emission on the PBL over the study regions were discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A total of 14 chemical transport models (CTMs) participated in the first topic of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) phase III. These model results are compared with each other and an extensive set of measurements, aiming to evaluate the current CTMs' ability in simulating aerosol concentrations, to document the similarities and differences among model performance, and to reveal the characteristics of aerosol components in large cities over East Asia. In general, these CTMs can well reproduce the spatial–temporal distributions of aerosols in East Asia during the year 2010. The multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows better performance than most single-model predictions, with correlation coefficients (between MMEM and measurements) ranging from 0.65 (nitrate, NO3-) to 0.83 (PM 2.5). The concentrations of black carbon (BC), sulfate (SO42-), and PM 10 are underestimated by MMEM, with normalized mean biases (NMBs) of -17.0 %, - 19.1 %, and - 32.6 %, respectively. Positive biases are simulated for NO3- (NMB = 4.9 %), ammonium (NH4+) (NMB = 14.0 %), and PM 2.5 (NMB = 4.4 %). In comparison with the statistics calculated from MICS-Asia phase II, frequent updates of chemical mechanisms in CTMs during recent years make the intermodel variability of simulated aerosol concentrations smaller, and better performance can be found in reproducing the temporal variations of observations. However, a large variation (about a factor of 2) in the ratios of SNA (sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium) to PM 2.5 is calculated among participant models. A more intense secondary formation of SO42- is simulated by Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) models, because of the higher SOR (sulfur oxidation ratio) than other models (0.51 versus 0.39). The NOR (nitric oxidation ratio) calculated by all CTMs has larger values (∼0.20) than the observations, indicating that overmuch NO3- is simulated by current models. NH3 -limited condition (the mole ratio of ammonium to sulfate and nitrate is smaller than 1) can be successfully reproduced by all participant models, which indicates that a small reduction in ammonia may improve the air quality. A large coefficient of variation (CV > 1.0) is calculated for simulated coarse particles, especially over arid and semi-arid regions, which means that current CTMs have difficulty producing similar dust emissions by using different dust schemes. According to the simulation results of MMEM in six large Asian cities, different air-pollution control plans should be taken due to their different major air pollutants in different seasons. The MICS-Asia project gives an opportunity to discuss the similarities and differences of simulation results among CTMs in East Asian applications. In order to acquire a better understanding of aerosol properties and their impacts, more experiments should be designed to reduce the diversities among air quality models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the winter and spring times, the cold continental airs not only often outflow to Taiwan, but also bring air pollutants and dusts. Moreover, springtime happens to be the biomass burning season in Indochina. Under favor weather conditions, the products of biomass burning pollutants could be transported easily to Taiwan and even East Asia. Due to the unique geographic location of Taiwan, that allows us to receive more than just one source in spring. Actually, the complex interactions of these air pollutants and aerosols features in the boundary layer and aloft have resulted in complex characteristics of air pollutants and aerosols distributions in the lower troposphere over Taiwan and East Asia. The impacts are also essential and complex. The project "Effect of Megacities on the transport and transformation of pollutants on the Regional and Global scales (EMeRGe)" aims to improve our knowledge and prediction of the transport and transformation patterns of European and Asian megacities pollutant outflows. In EMeRGe Asia, the composition of the plumes of pollution entering and leaving Asia measured by the new High Altitude and LOng Range (HALO) aircraft research platform. The HALO aircraft performing optimized transects and vertical profiling in Asia during 12 March and 7 April in 2018. To design the measurement of aircraft flight paths and elevations, a high resolution, 9 km, numerical prediction by Weather Research Forecast (WRF) and WRF-Chem models were joined and performed during the campaigns. The EMeRGe Asia has successfully finished more than 10 missions during study period. Model performances and preliminary results will discuss in this meeting. Overall, this series of studies significantly fill the gap of our understanding on air pollutants transformation and transport to Taiwan and East Asia, and show the potential directions of future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]