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Climate change is expected to increase woody vegetation abundance in the Arctic, yet the magnitude, spatial pattern and pathways of change remain uncertain. We compared historical orthophotos photos (1952 and 1979) with high‐resolution satellite imagery (2015) to examine six decades of change in abundance of white spruce Picea glauca and tall shrubs (Salix spp., Alnus spp.) near the Agashashok River in northwest Alaska. We established ~3000 random points within our ~5500 ha study area for classification into nine cover types. To examine physiographic controls on tree abundance, we fit multinomial log‐linear models with predictors derived from a digital elevation model and with arctic tundra, alpine tundra and 'tree' as levels of a categorical response variable. Between 1952 and 2015, points classified as arctic and alpine tundra decreased by 31% and 15%, respectively. Meanwhile, tall shrubs increased by 86%, trees mixed with tall shrubs increased by 385% and forest increased by 84%. Tundra with tall shrubs rarely transitioned to forest. The best multinomial model explained 71% of variation in cover and included elevation, slope and an interaction between slope and 'northness'. Treeline was defined as the elevation where the probability of tree presence equaled that of tundra. Mean treeline elevation in 2015 was 202 m, corresponding with a June–August mean air temperature > 11°C, which is > 4°C warmer than the 6–7°C isotherm associated with global treeline elevations. Our results show dramatic increases in the abundance of trees and tall shrubs, question the universality of air temperature as a predictor of treeline elevation and suggest two mutually exclusive pathways of vegetation change, because tundra that gained tall shrubs rarely transitioned to forest. Conversion of tundra to tall shrubs and forest has important and potentially contrasting implications for carbon cycling, surface energy exchange and wildlife habitat in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trees growing near the Arctic treeline have long been used to reconstruct past climates. However, recent studies have shown deterioration of historically strong positive correlations between air temperature and tree growth (known as "divergence"). Divergence has important implications for confidence in paleoclimate reconstructions and ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchange. Studies in the Brooks Range of northern Alaska showed that white spruce in the west increased growth in response to late 20th century warming, whereas those in the east failed to show a growth increase. In an earlier study across four watersheds in the Brooks Range, we tested and rejected the hypothesis that divergence in the easternmost watershed reflects moisture limitation of growth. Here, using 16 sites distributed across the same four watersheds, we tested an alternative hypothesis, that greater nutrient limitation in the east may have impeded positive growth responses to warming. Climate comparison across the four Brooks Range study watersheds revealed that, although the easternmost watershed generally had a drier growing-season climate, the most consistent difference was that winter air temperature and both winter and summer soil temperatures were much colder in the central and eastern watersheds. Soil nutrient availability, foliar nutrient concentrations, and tree growth were all generally lower in the central and eastern than in the western watersheds. Foliar phosphorus concentration was the best predictor of spatial variation in branch extension growth-a finding that is somewhat inconsistent with the theory that forest productivity on young, glacially derived soils should be strongly nitrogen limited. Experimental fertilization yielded the greatest growth increase in the eastern, an intermediate response in the central, and the smallest growth increase in the western watershed, generally mirroring trends in soil temperature, soil nutrient availability, foliar nutrient concentrations, and growth of control trees. Our results confirm that growth in the easternmost watershed is more nutrient limited and suggest that phosphorus limitation may be at least as important as nitrogen limitation of growth. We hypothesize that cold soil effects on tree access to nutrients might explain divergence in the eastern Brooks Range and elsewhere near the Arctic treeline, particularly in areas with cold winters and widespread permafrost., (© 2019 by the Ecological Society of America.)