Brooks, Paul D., Gelderloos, Andrew, Wolf, Margaret A., Jamison, Logan R., Strong, Courtenay, Solomon, D. Kip, Bowen, Gabriel J., Burian, Steve, Tai, Xiaonan, Arens, Seth, Briefer, Laura, Kirkham, Tracie, and Stewart, Jesse
Accelerating warming, changes in the amount, timing, and form of precipitation, and rapidly growing populations highlight the need for improved predictions of snowmelt‐driven water supplies. Although decadal‐scale trends in reduced streamflow are common, minimal progress has been made in improving streamflow prediction on the annual time scales on which management decisions are made. Efficient allocation of dwindling supplies requires incorporating rapidly evolving knowledge of streamflow generation into parsimonious models capable of improving prediction on seasonal, annual, and multiyear time scales of water resource management. We address this need using long‐term streamflow and climate records in 12 catchments averaging 90 years of observations and totaling more than 1,080 site‐years of data. These catchments experience similar regional climate forcing each year, but are diverse enough to represent broad ranges in precipitation, temperature, vegetation, and geology characteristic of much of the western US. We find that January baseflow across all catchments exhibits a coherent, quasi‐decadal periodicity that presumably is indicative of groundwater response to decadal climate. Although the direct contribution of this discharge to streamflow is small, interannual variability in groundwater discharge is a consistently strong predictor of runoff efficiency suggesting that antecedent groundwater storage alters precipitation routing to streamflow. Incorporating antecedent groundwater storage with precipitation and melt dynamics in multiple linear regression models reduces uncertainty in annual runoff from approximately 40% to <5%. These simple models, using readily available data, provide immediately useful tools for water managers to anticipate and respond to streamflow variability on time scales of 1 to 10 years. Plain Language Summary: Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of drought in western North America highlighting the need to improve how water supplies are managed. Although the issues are complex, one of the largest challenges in efficient and equitable water resource management is the high spatial and temporal variability in runoff efficiency. Runoff efficiency, also termed water yield, is the fraction of annual precipitation that exits a catchment as surface water discharge. These values vary from less than 20% to greater than 70% across the western US; more importantly for water supply is that interannual water yield from any one catchment may vary ±30%. This variability is highlighted by Spring runoff 2020 in the upper Colorado River Basin where annual snowfall was close to average but annual runoff was 50%–60% of normal. Our results demonstrate that a major driver of variability in runoff efficiency is a regionally coherent, quasi‐decadal periodicity in groundwater storage reflected in mid‐winter baseflow. Incorporating interannual storage variability into a statistical model of streamflow reduces uncertainty in water yield by roughly half. Importantly, the ability to quantify storage in mid‐winter allows resource managers to anticipate and plan for annual water supply months before snowmelt begins. Key Points: Spatially coherent temporal patterns in winter discharge indicate quasi‐decadal periodicity in groundwater storage in headwater catchmentsThis variability in antecedent catchment water storage is a primary determinant of water yield during the subsequent spring snowmeltVariability in mid‐winter baseflow allows water managers to anticipate and plan for the upcoming runoff season months before melt begins [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]