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Prior research based on Swedish data suggests that collective optimism, as measured by monthly incidence of suicides, correlates inversely with selection in utero against male twins in a population. We test this finding in the US, which reports the highest suicide rate of all high-income countries, and examine whether monthly changes in overall suicides precede changes in the ratio of male twin to male singleton live births. Consistent with prior work, we also examine as a key independent variable, suicides among women aged 15−49 years. We retrieved monthly data on suicides and the ratio of male twin to singleton live births from CDC WONDER, 2003 to 2019, and applied Box-Jenkins iterative time-series routines to detect and remove autocorrelation from both series. Results indicate that a 1% increase in monthly change in overall suicides precedes a 0.005 unit decline in male twin live births ratio 6 months later (coefficient = −.005, p value =.004). Results remain robust to use of suicides among reproductive-aged women as the independent variable (coefficient = −.0012, p value =.014). Our study lends external validity to prior research and supports the notion that a decline in collective optimism corresponds with greater selection in utero. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fertility decline remains a key concern among high-income countries. Prior research indicates that income supplementation through unconditional cash transfers (UCT) may correspond with increased fertility. We examine whether a casino-based UCT, in the form of per capita (percap) payments to members of the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians (EBCI) corresponds with an acute increase in fertility. We use North Carolina vital statistics datasets from 1990 to 2006 and apply time-series analysis methods to examine the relation between specific months of percap payments (exposure) and monthly number of conceptions that result in live births (outcome) among the EBCI. We control for autocorrelation and monthly counts of births (arrayed by conception cohorts) among white women (ineligible for UCT receipt) in the study region. Results indicate an increase in conceptions that result in live births at 1 and 3 months after percap receipt among EBCI women aged ≥20 years (exposure month lag 1 coefficient = 1.74, p = 0.03; exposure month lag 3 coefficient = 1.60, p = 0.04). Exploratory analyses indicate that the observed fertility increase concentrates among primiparae EBCI women. We do not find any association between percap payment timing and births to EBCI women aged <20 years. • Income supplementation through unconditional cash transfers (UCT) may correspond with increased fertility. • We examine if fertility increases following per capita (percap) payments to members of the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians (EBCI). • Conceptions that result in live births increase at 1 and 3 months after percap receipt among EBCI women aged ≥20 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The rise in opioid-related mortality and opioid-related emergency department (ED) visits has stimulated research on whether broader economic declines, such as the Great Recession, affect opioid-related morbidity. We examine in New York City whether one measure of morbidity-opioid-related ED visits-responded acutely to the large negative "shock" of the Great Recession.Methods: Data comprise outpatient "treat and release" opioid-related ED visits in New York City for the 72 months spanning January 2006 to December 2011, taken from the Statewide Emergency Department Database (n = 150,246). We modeled the monthly incidence of opioid-related ED visits using Autoregressive, Integrated, Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series methods to control for patterning in ED visits before examining its potential association with the economic shock of the Great Recession.Results: New York City shows a mean of 1761 outpatient ED visits per month for opioid dependence and abuse. Unexpectedly large drops in employment coincide with fewer than expected opioid dependence and abuse ED visits in that same month. The result (coefficient = 0.046, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.002, 0.090) represents a 0.8% drop in overall incidence of opioid dependence and abuse ED visits during the Great Recession. We, however, observe no association between the Great Recession and ED visits for prescription opioid overdose or heroin overdose, or with inpatient ED visits for opioid dependence and abuse.Conclusions: Findings, if replicated, indicate distinct short-term reductions in opioid-related morbidity following the Great Recession. This result diverges from previous findings of increased opioid use following extended economic downturns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Suicide deaths among Black youth in the US have increased rapidly over the past decade. Direct or vicarious racial trauma experienced through exposure to police brutality may underlie these concerning trends. We obtained nationally aggregated monthly counts of suicides for non-Hispanic Black and White youth (age ≤ 24 years) and adults (age > 24 years) from the National Mortality Vital Statistics restricted-use data files provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, from 2013 to 2019. Monthly counts of Black youth suicides constituted our main outcome. We defined our exposure as the monthly counts of police killings of unarmed Black persons over 84 months (2013 to 2019), retrieved from the Mapping Police Violence database. We used ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) time-series analyses to examine whether Black youth suicides increased within 0 to 3 months following police killings of unarmed Black persons, controlling for autocorrelation and corresponding series of White youth suicides. Suicides among Black youth increase by ∼1 count three months following an increase in police killings of unarmed Black persons (exposure lag 0 coefficient = 0.16, p > 0.05; exposure lag 1 coefficient = −0.70, p > 0.05; exposure lag 2 coefficient = −0.54, p > 0.05; exposure lag 3 coefficient = 0.95, p < 0.05). The observed increase in suicides concentrates among Black male youth (exposure lag 3 coefficient = 0.88, p < 0.05). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]