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Thermo-erosion gullies (TGs) are typical thermokarst features in upland permafrost; the soil organic carbon (SOC) of TGs has an important influence on soil quality in cold regions. The objectives of this study were to estimate the spatial distribution of SOC content in a typical TG on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau in China by using soil properties from seven different TGs and covariates from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images, and to characterize the SOC content changes in four representative landscape regions (NO-Slumping, Slumping1, Slumping2, and Slumped) within this typical TG. The support vector machine (SVM) was the optimal machine learning algorithm for SOC content prediction, which explained 53.06% (R2) of the SOC content variation. Silt content was the most influential factor which demonstrated a positive relationship with SOC content in different TGs. In addition, the SOC content in the TGs was related to the landscapes. Severe Slumping (Slumping2: 150.79 g·kg−1) had a lower SOC content than NO-Slumped (163.29 g·kg−1) and the initial slumping stage (Slumping1: 169.08 g·kg−1). The results suggested that SVM was an effective algorithm to obtain a profound understanding of the SOC content over space, while future research needs to pay more attention to the SOC content distribution in the different TGs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The SOC in two depths were mapped at a resolution of 1 km and five-year interval during 1980–2100. • Three climate scenarios of SSP 1–1.9, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in CMIP6 were considered. • The top 20 cm and 100 cm SOC of China both acted as carbon sinks during 1980–2020. • The SOC will fluctuate significantly in the future under different climate scenarios. • Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, SOC presented a larger likelihood of being a carbon source in most region. Revealing historical changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and exploring its future status are important for safeguarding soil health and food security, giving full play to the service function of soil ecosystems, and coping with climate change. However, there is still a gap in our understanding of the SOC stocks in China and their spatial patterns in response to future climate change. Therefore, we attempted to fill this knowledge gap using a large amount of soil observation data, digital soil mapping technology, and global circulation models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). In this study, a random forest model was selected to construct the spatial relationship between SOC in the top 0–20 cm (SOC020) and 0–100 cm (SOC0100) of the soil and 21 environmental factors. Spatiotemporal changes in SOC from 1980 to 2100 were revealed at a resolution of 1 km and five-year interval for three climate scenarios in CMIP6. The cross-validation results indicated acceptable predictions for both depths of SOC; however, relatively large prediction uncertainties were observed for SOC0100 in the Tibetan Plateau and northeastern China. The mean values of SOC020 and SOC0100 over the last four decades were 35.77 and 84.62 Tg, respectively, and showed carbon sinks at the national scale, with accumulation rates of 0.05 Pg yr-1 and 0.036 Pg y-1 for the two depths. Compared with historical values (1980–2020), SOC will fluctuate significantly in the future under different climate scenarios. Among them, SOC showed a slow increasing trend at both depths under the SSP1-1.9 low emission scenario, while SOC presented a decreasing trend under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 medium–high emission scenarios. In particular, in most of China under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, SOC0100 presented a larger likelihood of being a carbon source. This study provides a reference for exploring the response of soil carbon pools to climate change and evaluating the effectiveness of land management and ecological protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]