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Soil organic carbon (SOC) contents and stocks provide valuable insights into soil health, nutrient cycling, greenhouse gas emissions, and overall ecosystem productivity. Given this, remote sensing data coupled with advanced machine learning (ML) techniques have eased SOC level estimation while revealing its patterns across different ecosystems. However, despite these advances, the intricacies of training reliable and yet certain SOC models for specific end-users remain a great challenge. To address this, we need robust SOC uncertainty quantification techniques. Here, we introduce a methodology that leverages conformal prediction to address the uncertainty in estimating SOC contents while using remote sensing data. Conformal prediction generates statistically reliable uncertainty intervals for predictions made by ML models. Our analysis, performed on the LUCAS dataset in Europe and incorporating a suite of relevant environmental covariates, underscores the efficacy of integrating conformal prediction with another ML model, specifically random forest. In addition, we conducted a comparative assessment of our results against prevalent uncertainty quantification methods for SOC prediction, employing different evaluation metrics to assess both model uncertainty and accuracy. Our methodology showcases the utility of the generated prediction sets as informative indicators of uncertainty. These sets accurately identify samples that pose prediction challenges, providing valuable insights for end-users seeking reliable predictions in the complexities of SOC estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To overcome spatial, spectral and temporal constraints of different remote sensing products, data fusion is a good technique to improve the prediction capability of soil prediction models. However, few studies have analyzed the effects of image fusion on digital soil mapping (DSM) models. This research fused multispectral (MS) and panchromatic Landsat 8 (L8) bands, and MS Sentinel 2 (S2) and panchromatic L8 bands using the Brovey, Intensity–Hue–Saturation and Gram–Schmidt methods in an agricultural area in Yellow River Basin, China. To analyze the effects of image fusion on DSM models, various SOC prediction models derived from remote sensing image datasets were established by the random forest method. Soil salinity indices and spectral reflectance from all the remote sensing data had relatively strong negative correlations with SOC, and vegetation indices and water indices from all the remote sensing data had relatively strong positive correlations with SOC. Soil moisture and vegetation were the main controlling factors of the SOC spatial pattern in the study area. More spectral indices derived from pansharpened L8 and fused S2–L8 images by all three image fusion methods had stronger relationships with SOC compared with those from MS L8 and MS S2, respectively. All the SOC models established by pansharpened L8 and fused S2–L8 images had higher prediction accuracy than those established by MS L8 and MS S2, respectively. The fusion between S2 and L8 bands had stronger effects on enhancing the prediction accuracy of SOC models compared with the fusion between panchromatic and MS L8 bands. It is concluded that digital soil mapping and image fusion can be utilized to increase the prediction performance of SOC spatial prediction models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil organic carbon influences several landscape ecological processes, and soils are becoming recognized as a mechanism to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. There is a need to define methods and technologies for addressing soils' spatial variability as well as the time and cost of sampling soil organic carbon (SOC). Visible and near-infrared spectroscopy have been suggested as a sampling tool to reduce inventory cost. We sampled nineteen ranch properties totaling 17,347 ha across Oklahoma and Texas in 2019 to evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy of a handheld reflectometer (Our Sci, Ann Arbor, MI, USA) (370–940 nm) and existing remote sensing approaches to estimate SOC in semi-arid grazing lands. Our data suggest that the Our Sci Reflectometer estimated soil organic carbon with a precision of approximately (±0.3% SOC); however, it was least accurate at higher carbon concentrations. The Our Sci reflectometer, although consistently accurate at lower SOC concentrations, was still less accurate than a model built using only remote sensing and digital soil map data as predictors. Combining the two data sources was the most accurate means of determining SOC. Our results indicated that the Our Sci handheld Vis-NIR reflectometer tested may have only limited applications for reducing inventory costs at scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction and accurate digital soil mapping (DSM) of soil organic carbon (SOC) at a local scale is a key factor for any agro-ecological modelling. This study aims to use remote sensing and terrain derivatives to provide a reliable method for SOC prediction. An advanced geostatistical-based empirical Bayesian Kriging regression (EBKR) method was used and performance was compared with the artificial neural network (ANN) and hybrid ANN, i.e. ANN-OK (ordinary kriging) and ANN-CK (cokriging). The result showed that the hybrid ANN model performs better than ANN, whereas the EBKR method outperforms all other methods with the highest R2 of 0.936. The DSM map shows that the highest SOC concentration was found in easternmost part of the study area with grass and agricultural land. This work shows the robustness of the EBKR prediction method over other techniques. The study will also aid the policymakers in adopting sustainable land use management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil organic carbon (SOC), as the largest carbon pool on the land surface, plays an important role in soil quality, ecological security and the global carbon cycle. Multisource remote sensing data-driven modeling strategies are not well understood for accurately mapping soil organic carbon. Here, we hypothesized that the Sentinel-2 Multispectral Sensor Instrument (MSI) data-driven modeling strategy produced superior outcomes compared to modeling based on Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data due to the finer spatial and spectral resolutions of the Sentinel-2A MSI data. To test this hypothesis, the Ebinur Lake wetland in Xinjiang was selected as the study area. In this study, SOC estimation was carried out using Sentinel-2A and Landsat 8 data, combining climatic variables, topographic factors, index variables and Sentinel-1A data to construct a common variable model for Sentinel-2A data and Landsat 8 data, and a full variable model for Sentinel-2A data, respectively. We utilized ensemble learning algorithms to assess the prediction performance of modeling strategies, including random forest (RF), gradient boosted decision tree (GBDT) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithms. The results show that: (1) The Sentinel-2A model outperformed the Landsat 8 model in the prediction of SOC contents, and the Sentinel-2A full variable model under the XGBoost algorithm achieved the best results R2 = 0.804, RMSE = 1.771, RPIQ = 2.687). (2) The full variable model of Sentinel-2A with the addition of the red-edge band and red-edge index improved R2 by 6% and 3.2% over the common variable Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2A models, respectively. (3) In the SOC mapping of the Ebinur Lake wetland, the areas with higher SOC content were mainly concentrated in the oasis, while the mountainous and lakeside areas had lower SOC contents. Our results provide a program to monitor the sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems through a satellite perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• SOC inversion models were established for various land-use in an arid mining area. • SOC spatiotemporal variability and its effect factors were analyzed. • Changes in vegetation and soil erosion dominate the spatial distribution of SOC. • Coal mining affects plant, terrain and soil erosion, then weakens SOC accumulation. Soil organic carbon (SOC) undergoes rapid changes due to human production activities, which have an impact on the land carbon cycle and ultimately global change. As one of the main human production activities, coal mining significantly impacts the soil carbon cycle. However, due to the lack of remote sensing modeling of soil carbon in mining areas, the spatio-temporal changes and driving mechanisms of SOC in mining areas remain unclear. Therefore, this study investigated and determined SOC data from 300 sampling points (depth of 0–20 cm) located in an arid mining area of China. Remote sensing images were then used to established a soil organic carbon density (SOCD) prediction model within the Random Forest (RF) model to achieve digital mapping of soil organic carbon stocks (SOCS). The spatiotemporal changes of SOCS were analyzed using SOCS digital mapping, and the influencing mechanism of SOCS was revealed using path analysis. The results showed that the constructed SOCD predictive model meets the demand for SOCD prediction (R2 ≥ 0.74, p < 0.01, RMSE ≤ 1.72 kg/m2). Under the combined influence of coal mining and land reclamation, the total amount of surface SOCS in the mining area exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 1990 (6.34 Tg) to 2021 (7.73 Tg), with an annual growth rate of 0.038 Tg/a. The spatial distribution of SOCS generally increased from southeast to northwest. Precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and land use were positively correlated to SOCS spatial distribution, while temperature, elevation, soil erosion, and mining intensity were negatively correlated to SOCS. The impact degree of factors on SOCS was as follows: NDVI > soil erosion > mining intensity > precipitation > elevation > land use > temperature. The negative impact of coal mining on SOCS was mainly indirect, through disturbance to elevation, vegetation, and soil erosion. The uneven ground subsidence and stretching caused by coal mining contribute to intensified soil erosion and vegetation degradation in the affected area, leading to a reduction in SOCS. However, SOCS did not decrease under high intensity mining, which was related to the increase in vegetation and the reduction in soil erosion in the mining area. In this study, a soil carbon prediction model was established based on remote sensing modeling to evaluate the temporal and spatial distribution of soil carbon in an arid mining area. The results can serve as valuable references for the scientific improvement of the ecological environment in mining areas, the rational planning of mining area construction, as well as low-carbon land reclamation and ecological compensation assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• DSM of SOC using different remote sensing data was reviewed. • Majority of studies were conducted on mixed land-use types followed by cropland. • Machine learning techniques were used more than (geo)statistical ones. • Terrain variables as predictors had the largest contribution to map SOC. • Data acquired by satellite sensors was employed more than the other types. Soil organic carbon (SOC) has attracted a lot of attention in the soil science community. Freely available remote sensing data combined with advanced digital soil mapping (DSM) techniques has led to a better understanding and management of SOC. This paper has considered the published literature with a focus on digital mapping of SOC using remote sensing data within 2010 to 2023 intervals. The objective was to consider all the important aspects of SOC prediction and mapping, including different land-use types, DSM algorithms, environmental variables, and remote sensing data sources. According to this review conducted on the 217 papers, cropland was the most popular type of land use. Regarding the DSM algorithms, random forest (RF) appeared in the largest number of studies. The terrain and spectral variables derived from the digital elevation model (DEM) and remote sensing images, were the highest demanding among all those used as input predictors. In addition, satellite platforms provided the largest portion of the remote sensing data used for the calibration of DSM models. This review provides quantitative insight into recent trends of SOC digital mapping using remote sensing technology while suggesting some directions for future development of the topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although algorithms are well developed to predict soil organic carbon (SOC), selecting appropriate covariates to improve prediction accuracy is an ongoing challenge. Terrain attributes and remote sensing data are the most common covariates for SOC prediction. This study tested the predictive performance of nine different combinations of topographic variables and multi-season remotely sensed data to improve the prediction of SOC in the cultivated lands of a middle mountain catchment of Nepal. The random forest method was used to predict SOC contents, and the quantile regression forest for quantifying the prediction uncertainty. Prediction of SOC contents was improved when remote sensing data of multiple seasons were used together with the terrain variables. Remote sensing data of multiple seasons capture the dynamic conditions of surface soils more effectively than using an image of a single season. It is concluded that the use of remote sensing images of multiple seasons instead of a snapshot of a single period may be more effective for improving the prediction of SOC in a digital soil mapping framework. However, an image with the right timing of cropping season can provide comparable results if a parsimonious model is preferred. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Models could be built using a bare soil composite image from Landsat 5. • Soil organic carbon model was driven by near infrared and visible light bands. • Clay model was primarily dependent on the shortwave infrared bands. • Cation exchange capacity model was driven by shortwave and near infrared bands. There is an increasing need for detailed soil property maps to support land use planning, soil carbon accounting, and precision agriculture. While soil maps exist in Saskatchewan, they are at coarse scales (1:100,000), which are not always suitable for detailed soil management. One emerging technique for predictive soil mapping is the use of bare soil composite imagery derived from multi-temporal satellite imagery. This study focused on using bare soil composite imagery along with legacy soil data (1958–1998) with high location uncertainty to predict soil organic carbon, clay, and cation exchange capacity. The bare soil composite images were created from Landsat 5 imagery (1985 to 1995) using Google Earth Engine. Predictive models were built using a Random Forest model for each parameter and evaluated using a 75–25 train-test split. The soil organic carbon model had an R2 value of 0.55 with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.67 percent, with the near infrared and visible light bands being the most important features in the model. The clay predictive model has an R2 of 0.44 and a RMSE of 5.0 percent, with the shortwave infrared bands being most important. The cation exchange capacity model had an R2 of 0.50 with a RMSE of 5.7 meq 100 g−1, with the shortwave and near infrared bands as the most important predictors. Based on these results, bare soil composite imagery represents a valuable covariate for predictive soil mapping in the Canadian Prairies. This work also illustrates that for regions with extensive adoption of conservation farming practices, satellite imagery should be obtained for time periods before these practices were adopted from the months of the year where crop residues have decomposed. By combining historical soil survey data with historical imagery, maps of legacy soil properties can be generated to make comparisons against with modern data for applications such as monitoring soil organic carbon change over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetland ecosystems contain large amounts of soil organic carbon. Their natural environment is often both at the junction of land and water with good conditions for carbon sequestration. Therefore, the study of accurate prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC) density in coastal wetland ecosystems of flat terrain areas is the key to understanding their carbon cycling. This study used remote sensing data to study SOC density potentials of coastal wetland ecosystems in Northeast China. Eleven environmental variables including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), difference vegetation index (DVI), soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), renormalization difference vegetation index (RDVI), ratio vegetation index (RVI), topographic wetness index (TWI), elevation, slope aspect (SA), slope gradient (SG), mean annual temperature (MAT), and mean annual precipitation (MAP) were selected to predict SOC density. A total of 193 soil samples (0–30 cm) were divided into two parts, 70% of the sampling sites data were used to construct the boosted regression tree (BRT) model containing three different combinations of environmental variables, and the remaining 30% were used to test the predictive performance of the model. The results show that the full variable model is better than the other two models. Adding remote sensing-related variables significantly improved the model prediction. This study revealed that SAVI, NDVI and DVI were the main environmental factors affecting the spatial variation of topsoil SOC density of coastal wetlands in flat terrain areas. The mean (±SD) SOC density of full variable models was 18.78 (±1.95) kg m−2, which gradually decreased from northeast to southwest. We suggest that remote sensing-related environmental variables should be selected as the main environmental variables when predicting topsoil SOC density of coastal wetland ecosystems in flat terrain areas. Accurate prediction of topsoil SOC density distribution will help to formulate soil management policies and enhance soil carbon sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Near infrared band (sentinel-2) and SATVI are of great importance in predicting SOC. • Adding phenological parameters improved SOC prediction accuracy. • Crop phenological parameters were generated based on sentinel-2 images. • Contrast the effects of moisture index, bright-related index and vegetation index in SOC mapping. It is important to predict the spatial distribution of SOC accurately for migrating carbon emission and sustainable soil management. Environmental variables influence the accuracy of SOC prediction with digital soil mapping (DSM) approaches. In addition to the commonly-used natural predictors, remote sensing variables have been recently used in DSM. However, it is still challenging which variables are effective to predict SOC in farmland. Although phenological parameters have been recently used to indicate human activities that affect SOC in farmland, there are few studies that employ the phenological parameters in SOC prediction. Therefore, this study investigates the feasibility of SOC prediction with the phenological parameters and numerous remote sensing variables extracted from Sentinel-2 at high temporal and spatial resolutions. From 34 Sentinel-2 time series images from 2018 to 2019, 17 phenological parameters were extracted for Xuanzhou, Anhui Province using a dynamic threshold method. Furthermore, fifteen remote sensing predictors comprised of vegetation indices, bright-related indices, and moisture indices were generated from the Sentinel-2 images. The phenological parameters and remote sensing variables were combined with natural variables to predict SOC contents at the surface soil layer using random forest. The results showed that the auxiliary parameters, i.e., the phenological parameters and remote sensing predictors, enhanced the predictability of SOC with an increase in R2 by 171% and a decrease in RMSE by 14%. This study also identified relatively more important auxiliary parameters for the SOC prediction: the largest data value for the fitted function during the season (a6), rate of increase at the beginning of the season (a8), large seasonal integral (a10), SATVI, and Band8. Therefore, this study verified that the phenological parameters and remote sensing predictors extracted from the Sentinel-2 EVI time series are effective for DSM in farmland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important evaluation index of soil quality, soil organic carbon (SOC) plays an important role in soil health, ecological security, soil material cycle and global climate cycle. The use of multi-source remote sensing on soil organic carbon distribution has a certain auxiliary effect on the study of soil organic carbon storage and the regional ecological cycle. However, the study on SOC distribution in Ebinur Lake Basin in arid and semi-arid regions is limited to the mapping of measured data, and the soil mapping of SOC using remote sensing data needs to be studied. Whether different machine learning methods can improve prediction accuracy in mapping process is less studied in arid areas. Based on that, combined with the proposed problems, this study selected the typical area of the Ebinur Lake Basin in the arid region as the study area, took the sentinel data as the main data source, and used the Sentinel-1A (radar data), the Sentinel-2A and the Sentinel-3A (multispectral data), combined with 16 kinds of DEM derivatives and climate data (annual average temperature MAT, annual average precipitation MAP) as analysis. The five different types of data are reconstructed by spatial data and divided into four spatial resolutions (10, 100, 300, and 500 m). Seven models are constructed and predicted by machine learning methods RF and Cubist. The results show that the prediction accuracy of RF model is better than that of Cubist model, indicating that RF model is more suitable for small areas in arid areas. Among the three data sources, Sentinel-1A has the highest SOC prediction accuracy of 0.391 at 10 m resolution under the RF model. The results of the importance of environmental variables show that the importance of Flow Accumulation is higher in the RF model and the importance of SLOP in the DEM derivative is higher in the Cubist model. In the prediction results, SOC is mainly distributed in oasis and regions with more human activities, while SOC is less distributed in other regions. This study provides a certain reference value for the prediction of small-scale soil organic carbon spatial distribution by means of remote sensing and environmental factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The feasibility of adding multi-temporal radar Sentinel-1A data to SOC prediction was explored. • Climate variables contributed the most to explaining SOC content variation. • In this ecosystem, RF and BRT models showed similar performance and produced similar SOC spatial distribution patterns. Soil organic carbon (SOC) has a large impact on soil quality and global climate change. It is therefore important to be able to predict SOC accurately to promote sustainable soil management. Although the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has many advantages and has been widely used in soil science research, it has rarely been used in previous SOC mapping studies based on remote sensing images. The purpose of this study was to investigate the ability of multi-temporal Sentinel-1A data in SOC prediction, by comparing the predictive performance of random forest (RF) and boosted regression tree (BRT) models in the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China. A set of 162 topsoil (0–20 cm) samples were taken and 15 environmental variables were obtained including land use, topography, climate, and remote sensing images (optical and SAR data). Using a cross-validation procedure to evaluate the performance of the models, three statistical indices were calculated. Overall, both RF and BRT models effectively predicted SOC content, exhibiting similar performance and producing similar spatial distribution patterns of SOC. The results showed that the addition of multi-temporal Sentinel-1A images improved prediction accuracy, with the root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE) and the coefficient of determination (R2) improving by 9.0%, 8.3% and 13.5%, respectively. Furthermore, the combination of all environmental variables had the best prediction performance explaining 75% of SOC variation. The most important environmental variables explaining SOC variation were precipitation, elevation, and temperature. The multi-temporal Sentinel-1A data in RF and BRT models explained 9% and 7%, respectively. The results from our case study highlight the usefulness of multi-temporal Sentinel-1 data in SOC mapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Wet year forage growth clearly associated with 0–30 cm soil organic carbon stocks. • Terrain attributes help explain half of 0–30 cm soil organic carbon variability. • 0–10 cm soil organic carbon stocks are noisier: variability is 75% unexplainable. • Complex rangeland terrain presents a challenge for soil organic carbon inventories. Accurate assessments of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are needed at multiple scales given their importance to both local soil health and global C cycles. Rangelands cover 54% of California, representing a large stock of SOC, but existing SOC estimates are uncertain. To improve understanding of fine-resolution SOC stocks in complex terrain and provide guidance to rangeland SOC inventories, we grid-sampled 105 locations (21-m grid cells) at two depths (0–10 and 10–30 cm) in a 10-ha annual grassland catchment in California's Central Coast Range. Soils were analyzed for bulk density, coarse fragments, SOC and texture. Monthly aerial imagery was acquired by an unmanned aerial vehicle to compare surface reflectance during two contrasting years (wet vs. dry) to SOC stocks. We found that the 0–30 cm soil thickness held 3.64 ± 0.71 kg SOC m−2 (mean ± SD) with a range of 1.97–5.49 kg SOC m−2. The 0–10 cm soil thickness stored 47% of the 0–30 cm SOC stock with SOC concentrations twice as high in the 0–10 cm layer (1.40 ± 0.38%) as in the 10–30 cm layer (0.71 ± 0.15% SOC). Multiple linear regression (MLR) models explained 50–57% of SOC variability at 0–30 and 10–30 cm, but only 25% of variability at 0–10 cm. Based on cross-validation tests, MLR outperformed spatial interpolation methods and Random Forest models, best explaining SOC stocks with five environmental covariates: wet-year greenness, mean curvature, elevation, insolation, and slope. Lower hillslope positions, concave landforms, and enhanced wet-year greenness were associated with more SOC, and explained 11%, 24%, and 31% of variability in 0–30 cm SOC stocks, respectively. This study demonstrates that the accuracy of regional-scale SOC mapping of California rangelands benefits from considering microclimatic and topographic controls at the catchment-scale, in addition to broader scale mineralogical and macroclimatic controls identified in previous SOC studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Soil workability threshold was mapped using PTFs and predicted maps of SOC and clay. • Random Forest outperformed Generalized Boosted Regression for predicting SOC and clay. • Workability map can be used for effective on-farm and regional agricultural management. Climate change is presenting sizeable challenges for agricultural production around the world. In some regions, shifting precipitation patterns in the spring and fall are negatively impacting farm operation by reducing the number of "workable days" or the days fields can be worked with heavy equipment without damaging soil structure. This can be particularly problematic for farms on clay soils and/or poor drainage. Approximating a water content threshold at which a soil is not workable due to soil structure destruction can be helpful for planning effective farm operations. In this study, we applied advanced remote sensing and machine learning tools to produce digital maps of soil organic carbon (SOC) and clay (CL) content and used them in existing pedotransfer functions (PTFs) to predict a workability threshold (WT) across a study area in Delta, British Columbia, Canada. We combined field data, soil and vegetation indices derived from multiple Landsat satellite images, topographic indices, and soil survey information to digitally map SOC and CL of the agricultural lands in Delta using random forest (RF) and generalized boosted regression model (GBM). When validated against an independent field dataset, the RF model outperformed GBM for all accuracy measures (coefficient of determination – R2, concordance correlation coefficient – CCC, and normalized root mean square error – nRMSE). We then spatially applied several PTFs using our digital maps to estimate the plasticity limits of the soil and produce WT map. The WT map was then tested against independent field samples of the soil water content at −10 kPa and we achieved R2 of 0.59, CCC of 0.70, and nRMSE of 0.15. Our analysis showed that 40% of the fields in the study area had WT < 30%, a threshold that is already being impacted by reduced workable days. This WT map could be used to improve spatial prioritizations of investments for climate change adaptation at farm to regional scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]