Search

Under climate change circumstances, increasing studies have reported the temporal instability of tree growth responses to climate, which poses a major challenge to linearly extrapolating past climate and future growth dynamics using tree‐ring data. Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is a potential solution to this problem that is widely used in the dendrochronology field to project past or future temporal growth response trajectories from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the projected accuracy of the SFTS in the climate effects on tree growth remains uncertain. Here, we empirically test the SFTS method by comparing the effect of spatial and temporal climate variations on climate responses of white spruce (Picea glauca), which has a transcontinental range in North America. We first applied a response surface regression model to capture the variations in growth responses along the spatial climate gradients. The results showed that the relationships between growth and June temperature varied along spatial climate gradients in a predictable way. And their relationships varied mainly along with local temperate condition. Then, the projected correlation coefficients between growth and climate using SFTS were compared against the observed. We found that the growth response changes caused by spatial versus temporal climate variations showed opposite trends. Moreover, the projected correlation coefficients using the SFTS were significantly lower than the observed. This finding suggests that applying the SFTS to project the growth response of white spruce might lead to an overestimation of the degree of tree maladaptation in future climate scenarios. And the overestimation is likely to get weaker from Alaska and Yukon Territory in the west to Quebec in the east. Although this is only a case study of the SFTS method for projecting tree growth response, our findings suggest that direct application of the SFTS method may not be applicable to all regions and all tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Forestry Chronicle is the property of Canadian Institute of Forestry and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

White spruce ( (Moench) Voss) cone crops were measured from 1986 to 2011 in the Kluane region of southwestern Yukon to test the hypothesis that the size of cone crops could be predicted from spring and summer temperature and rainfall of years t, t - 1, and t - 2 . We counted cones in the top 3 m of an average of 700 white spruce trees each year spread over 3-14 sites along 210 km of the Alaska Highway and the Haines Highway. We tested the conventional explanation for white spruce cone crops that implicates summer temperatures and rainfall in years t and t - 1 and rejected it, since it explained very little of the variation in our 26 years of data. We used exploratory data analysis with robust multiple regressions coupled with Akaike's information criterion corrected (AICc) analysis to determine the best statistical model to predict the size of cone crops. We could statistically explain 54% of the variation in cone crops from July and August temperatures of years t - 1 and t - 2 and May precipitation of year t - 2. There was no indication of a periodicity in cone crops, and years of large cone crops were synchronous over the Kluane region with few exceptions. This is the first quantitative model developed for the prediction of white spruce cone crops in the Canadian boreal forest and has the surprising result that weather conditions 2 years prior to the cone crop are the most significant predictors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal forests of North America are undergoing major changes because of the direct effects of global warming and increased CO2 levels. Plant production in the boreal forest is nutrient limited, and we examined how long-term fertilization affected growth of white spruce Picea glauca in the face of these major changes. We conducted a large-scale experiment by fertilizing two 1 km² stands of white spruce in the southwestern Yukon with commercial NPK fertilizer from 1987 to 1994. Tree growth was measured by the width of annual increments in 60 trees from each of 2 control and of 2 matched fertilized 1 km² sites for the period from 1977 to 1997 in a before, during, and after experimental design. Ring widths increased in both control and fertilized trees over this period as summer temperatures increased. Ring widths in fertilized trees increased from 9 to 48% over control trees during the years in which fertilizer was added, but immediately fell back to control levels from 1995 to 1997 at 1 site as soon as fertilization was stopped. In the long term, nitrogen in these forests may become tied up in shrubs, grasses, herbs, and fungi and not be available to the trees. There are 2 other possible explanations for this lack of sustained tree growth: first, the conversion of nitrogen into a form not readily available to spruce and, second, a spruce bark beetle outbreak that hit the southwestern Yukon during and after 1994 and affected 1 study site much more than the other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Mast seeding is the synchronous and highly variable production of seed by a population of plants. Mast seeding results from the behaviour of individuals; however, little is known about the synchrony of individuals at local scales. 2. We address two primary questions at a within-population (17–36 ha study plots) and individual level: (i) How variable is seed production between and within years? (ii) How synchronized is seed production between individuals? 3. We monitored annual cone production of 356 Picea glauca (white spruce) from 1990 to 2005 within four plots spanning a total distance of 5.3 km in the Yukon Territory, Canada. 4. Spearman correlations ( rs) were conducted to test for synchrony. Overall, the trees were moderately synchronous (mean rs (± SE) of 0.52 ± 0.14), and synchrony was statistically detectable ( rs > 0) over all distances. Individuals < 75 m apart were highly synchronous (0.64 ± 0.18), and correlations dropped to 0.33 ± 0.07 for trees > 3 km apart. There was considerable variation in cone production patterns among pairs of individuals. 5. The number of mast years per plot varied from one to three. During a mast year, many individuals within plots produced large cone crops, with more variability between individuals in low mean cone years. Individual trees had dominant endogenous cycles varying from none to 1–5 years. Forty-four per cent of trees had no significant lag, 23% a negative 1-year lag, and 20% a positive 3-year lag. Basal area did not influence lags, but trees with higher mean cone production throughout the study were more likely to have a 3-year lag compared with no lag. 6. The scale of highest synchrony coincided with the scale at which the dominant seed predator in the area, the territorial red squirrel ( Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), operates. This may be the scale at... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1 Boundaries between forest and tundra ecosystems, tree lines, are expected to advance in altitude and latitude in response to climate warming. However, varied responses to 20th century warming suggest that in addition to temperature, tree line dynamics are mediated by species-specific traits and environmental conditions at landscape and local scales. 2 We examined recent tree line dynamics at six topographically different, but climatically similar, sites in south-west Yukon, Canada. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct changes in density of the dominant tree species, white spruce ( Picea glauca), and to construct static age distributions of willow ( Salix spp.), one of two dominant shrub genera. Data were analysed to identify periods and rates of establishment and mortality and to relate these to past climate. 3 Tree line elevation and stand density increased significantly during the early to mid 20th century. However, this change was not uniform across sites. Spruce advanced rapidly on south-facing slopes and tree line rose 65–85 m in elevation. Tree line did not advance on north-facing slopes, but stand density increased 40–65%. Differences observed between aspects were due primarily to the differential presence of permafrost. Additional variability among sites was related to slope and vegetation type. Results were less conclusive for willow, but evidence for an advance was found at two sites. 4 Increases in stand density were strongly correlated with summer temperatures. The period of rapid change coincided with a 30-year period of above average temperatures, beginning in 1920. The highest correlations were obtained using a forward average of 30–50 years, supporting the hypothesis that tree line dynamics are controlled more by conditions influencing recruitment than by establishment alone. 5 The changes observed at several sites are suggestive of a threshold response and challenge the notion that tree lines respond gradually to climate warming. Overall, the results provide further evidence to support the idea that the pattern and timing of change is contingent on local, landscape, and regional-scale factors, as well as species’ biology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]