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Production risk has been ignored in most of the analysis of GM technology, which has mostly focused on its effects on mean yield. We use stochastic dominance to quantify the effect of GM traits on the entire distribution of yields in corn in the USA under a wide range of growing conditions. Although no GM hybrid outperforms conventional hybrids under all growing conditions, we present evidence that most GM hybrids can be considered as improvements of the yield distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We aim to determine whether a game-theoretic model between an insurer and a healthcare practice yields a predictive equilibrium that incentivizes either player to deviate from a fee-for-service to capitation payment system. Using United States data from various primary care surveys, we find that non-extreme equilibria (i.e., shares of patients, or shares of patient visits, seen under a fee-for-service payment system) can be derived from a Stackelberg game if insurers award a non-linear bonus to practices based on performance. Overall, both insurers and practices can be incentivized to embrace capitation payments somewhat, but potentially at the expense of practice performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates a labor-intensive process to measure the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children in the United States. Random forests methods have shown promise in speeding up this process, but they lag behind human classification accuracy by about 5%. We explore whether more recently available document classification algorithms can close this gap. Materials and methods: Using data gathered from a single surveillance site, we applied 8 supervised learning algorithms to predict whether children meet the case definition for ASD based solely on the words in their evaluations. We compared the algorithms’ performance across 10 random train-test splits of the data, using classification accuracy, F1 score, and number of positive calls to evaluate their potential use for surveillance. Results: Across the 10 train-test cycles, the random forest and support vector machine with Naive Bayes features (NB-SVM) each achieved slightly more than 87% mean accuracy. The NB-SVM produced significantly more false negatives than false positives (P = 0.027), but the random forest did not, making its prevalence estimates very close to the true prevalence in the data. The best-performing neural network performed similarly to the random forest on both measures. Discussion: The random forest performed as well as more recently available models like the NB-SVM and the neural network, and it also produced good prevalence estimates. NB-SVM may not be a good candidate for use in a fully-automated surveillance workflow due to increased false negatives. More sophisticated algorithms, like hierarchical convolutional neural networks, may not be feasible to train due to characteristics of the data. Current algorithms might perform better if the data are abstracted and processed differently and if they take into account information about the children in addition to their evaluations. Conclusion: Deep learning models performed similarly to traditional machine learning methods at predicting the clinician-assigned case status for CDC’s autism surveillance system. While deep learning methods had limited benefit in this task, they may have applications in other surveillance systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prophylactic interventions such as vaccine allocation are some of the most effective public health policy planning tools. The supply of vaccines, however, is limited and an important challenge is to optimally allocate the vaccines to minimize epidemic impact. This resource allocation question (which we refer to as VID) has multiple dimensions: when, where, to whom, etc. Most of the existing literature in this topic deals with the latter (to whom), proposing policies that prioritize individuals by age and disease risk. However, since seasonal influenza spread has a typical spatial trend, and due to the temporal constraints enforced by the availability schedule, the when and where problems become equally, if not more, relevant. In this paper, we study the VID problem in the context of seasonal influenza spread in the United States. We develop a national scale metapopulation model for influenza that integrates both short and long distance human mobility, along with realistic data on vaccine uptake. We also design GA, a greedy algorithm for allocating the vaccine supply at the state level under temporal constraints and show that such a strategy improves over the current baseline of pro-rata allocation, and the improvement is more pronounced for higher vaccine efficacy and moderate flu season intensity. Further, the resulting strategy resembles a ring vaccination applied spatiallyacross the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prevalence of electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use has rapidly increased among young people, while conventional cigarette use has decreased in this age group. However, some evidence suggests that e-cigarette use is likely to induce conventional cigarette smoking. The present study explored the social influence of the prevalence of e-cigarette use in the peer network and in the general population as a potential mechanism by which e-cigarette use affects adolescents’ overall smoking behaviours. For this purpose, we developed an agent-based model in which young agents repeatedly choose to smoke conventional cigarettes and/or e-cigarettes, or to remain non-smokers. The choice is based on the agent’s evaluation of the utility derived from smoking and attitude towards smoking (‘openness’), which is influenced by smoking prevalence in the agent’s peer network and in the broader society. We also assumed a ‘crossover’ effect between the different types of smoking. The model was calibrated with United States National Youth Tobacco Survey data to reflect real-world numbers. We further simulated the prevalence of different types of smoking under counterfactual scenarios with different levels of openness and crossover effects. The models developed successfully reproduced actual prevalence trends in different types of smoking from 2011 to 2014. Openness to smoking is associated with a dramatic increase in e-cigarette smoking and especially in dual smoking, which cancels out the decline in sole conventional smoking. Larger crossover effects are associated with a higher prevalence of conventional smoking. The simulation results indicate that the social influence of the prevalence of e-cigarette use may influence young people to initiate or continue conventional cigarette smoking. Assessing the impact of e-cigarettes in the general population as a ‘healthier’ alternative to conventional smoking may require carefully monitoring trends in young people’s smoking behaviours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Laboratory rat welfare is critically influenced by laboratory animal personnel through their implementation, or lack of implementation, of various enrichment techniques. One such promising technique is heterospecific play, or “rat tickling”, which mimics aspects of rat rough-and-tumble play and can contribute to improving welfare, but may be infrequently implemented. The theory of planned behavior can be used to study implementation by measuring intentions and beliefs about rat tickling, including behavioral attitudes (whether it is good or bad), subjective norms (whether there is social/professional pressure to provide it), and control beliefs (whether they feel in control of providing it). Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify current rat tickling prevalence and predictors among laboratory animal personnel in the United States and Canada. Our hypothesis was that rat tickling prevalence would be low and associated with beliefs about the practice, enrichment, and laboratory animals in general. Methods: Laboratory animal personnel were recruited from widespread online promotion. A total of 794 personnel (mean = 40±11 years, 80% white, 80% female) completed at least 50% of the mixed methods online survey and met inclusion criteria of currently working with laboratory rats in the USA or Canada. The survey included questions about demographics, enrichment practices and beliefs, attitudes towards rats, general positive behaviors (e.g. talking to laboratory animals), and both practices and beliefs about rat tickling. Qualitative data were coded using thematic analysis. Quantitative data were analyzed using general linear models. Results: Laboratory personnel reported low levels of rat tickling implementation, with 89% of participants reporting using it never or rarely. Laboratory personnel reported 2 key benefits (handling: 61%, welfare: 55%) and 3 key barriers (time: 59%, personnel: 22%, and research: 22%) to rat tickling using qualitative analysis. Current and planned rat tickling were positively associated with more positive beliefs (social/professional pressure p<0.0001, control of providing tickling p<0.0001) and familiarity with tickling (p<0.0001). Current rat tickling was also positively associated with more positive general behaviors towards laboratory animals, such as naming animals (p<0.0001). Future rat tickling was positively associated with more positive attitudes about it (p<0.0001) and a desire to implement more enrichment (p<0.01). Conclusion: Our findings show that even though rat tickling implementation is currently low, it is positively associated with personnel beliefs, familiarity, general attitudes, and a desire for more enrichment. That is, laboratory animal personnel were more likely to provide rat tickling if they were more familiar with it, thought providing it was both good and under their control, and felt subject to social/professional pressure, as well as if they wanted to provide more enrichment and generally had more positive behaviors towards laboratory animals. There is potential to increase rat tickling by increasing personnel familiarity with the procedure through training, decreasing the time required, and changing personnel beliefs–thereby improving rat welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Not much is known about the fleet level total seabird bycatch from pelagic longlines of United States vessels in the western North Atlantic or other fleets of the Atlantic or other oceans. Onboard observers generally only record seabird bycatch during line hauling. Seabirds are predominantly caught during the line setting stage, and, due to predation or mechanical action, those caught prior to the haul can drop off the hook and be lost to the onboard observer. We developed a model to gauge the size of this bycatch loss problem and provide a first approximation of its impact on estimates of total fleet bycatch. We started with a traditional loss-free bycatch model, which assumes that birds recorded were the only birds captured, and integrated into it two crucial components of the bycatch process: capture origin (set or haul) and bycatch loss of set-captures. We extracted count data on seabird bycatch loss and bycatch mortality from the literature on other longline fisheries and used these data to simulate potential total seabird bycatch in the western North Atlantic. Simulations revealed the shortcomings of both the traditional bycatch model and the current haul-only observer protocol, each of which contributed to biologically significant underestimation of total bycatch and estimation uncertainty. Based on our results, we recommend a loss-corrected modeling approach to provide a more accurate estimate of seabird mortalities in pelagic longline fisheries. Where possible, fishery-specific seabird bycatch loss rates need to be ascertained via specific set and haul observing protocols. But, even where fishery-specific estimates for a region are not available, the methodology developed here is applicable to other pelagic longline fisheries to approximate fleet-level loss-corrected bycatch. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Downscaled climate projections need to be linked to downscaled projections of population and economic growth to fully develop implications for land, natural resources, and ecosystems for future scenarios. We develop an empirical spatiotemporal approach for jointly projecting population and income at the county scale in the United States that is consistent with neoclassical economic growth theory and overlapping labor markets and that accounts for labor migration and spatial spillovers. Downscaled projections generated for the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways used to support global scenario analysis generally show growth focused around relatively few centers especially in the southeast and western regions, with some areas in the Midwest and northeast experiencing population declines. Results are consistent with economic growth theory and with historical trends in population change and convergence of per capita personal income across US counties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bacterial Panicle Blight (BPB), caused by Burkholderia glumae, is a bacterial disease in rice (Oryza sativa) that reduces rice yield and quality for producers and consequently creates higher market prices for consumers. BPB is caused by the simultaneous occurrence of high daily minimum temperatures (~22°C) and relative humidity (~77%), which may increase under the current scenario of global warming. This study hypothesized that the economic damage from warming may cause an increase in economic losses, though at a decreasing rate per degree. Thus, this study estimates the yield losses associated with BPB occurrences at the county level in the Mid-South United States (US) for annual rice production in 2003–2013 and under +1–3°C warming scenarios using daily weather information with appropriate thresholds. From the estimated losses, the total production potential of a BPB-resistant rice was quantified using a spatial equilibrium trade model to further estimate market welfare changes with the counterfactual scenario that all US county-level rice production were BPB resistant. Results from the study indicate that the alleviation of BPB would represent a $69 million USD increase in consumer surplus in the US and a concomitant increase in rice production that would feed an additional 1.46 million people annually assuming a global average consumption of 54 Kg per person. Under the 1°C warming scenario, BPB occurrences and production losses would cause price increases for rice and subsequently result in a $112 million USD annual decrease in consumer surplus in the US and a loss of production equivalent to feeding 2.17 million people. Under a 3°C warming scenario, production losses due to BPB cause an annual reduction of $204 million USD in consumer surplus in the US, and a loss in production sufficient to feed 3.98 million people a year. As global warming intensifies, BPB could become a more common and formidable rice disease to combat, and breeding for BPB resistance would be the primary line-of-defense as currently no effective chemical options are available. The results of this study inform agriculturalists, policymakers, and economists about the value of BPB-resistance in the international rice market and also help support efforts to focus future breeding toward climate change impact resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) treatment in persons at increased risk of disease progression is a key strategy with the strong potential to increase rate of tuberculosis (TB) decline in the United States. However, LTBI treatment in homeless persons, a population at high-risk of active TB disease, is usually associated with poor adherence. We describe the impact of using directly observed treatment (DOT) versus self-administered treatments (SAT) as an adherence-improving intervention to administer four months of daily rifampin regimen for LTBI treatment among homeless adults in Atlanta. Retrospective analysis of clinical care data on 274 homeless persons who initiated daily rifampin treatment for LTBI treatment at a county health department between January 2014 and December 2016 was performed. To reduce bias from non-random assignment of treatment, an inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) logistic regression model was used to assess the effect of treatment type on treatment completion. Subgroup analyses were performed to assess heterogeneity of treatment effect on LTBI completion. Of 274 LTBI treatment initiators, 177 (65%) completed treatment [DOT 118/181 (65%), SAT 59/93 (63%)]. In the fully adjusted and weighted analysis, the odds of completing LTBI treatment on DOT was 40% higher than the odds of completing treatment by SAT [adjusted odds ratio (95% CI), aOR: 1.40 (1.07, 1.82), p = 0.014]. The unstable nature of homeless persons’ lifestyle makes LTBI treatment difficult for many reasons. Our study lends support to the use of DOT to improve LTBI treatment completion among subgroups of homeless persons on treatment with daily rifampin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Persons with dementia have twice the acute hospital use as older persons without dementia. In addition to straining overburdened healthcare systems, acute hospital use impacts patient and caregiver quality of life and is associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes including death. Reducing avoidable acute hospital use in persons with dementia is thus a global healthcare priority. However, evidence regarding the impact of health service interventions as defined by the Effective Practice and Organization of Care Cochrane Group on acute hospital use is scant and inconclusive. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to synthesize available evidence on the impact of health service interventions on acute hospital use in community-dwelling persons with dementia compared to usual care. Methods: Data Sources: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and Cochrane CENTRAL (from 01/1995 to 08/2017). Study eligibility criteria: Randomised controlled trials measuring the impact of health service interventions on acute hospital use (proportion and mean number of emergency department visits and hospitalisations, mean number of hospital days, measured at 12 months, and at longest follow-up) in community-dwelling persons with dementia, compared to usual care. Study selection, appraisal and synthesis methods: Reviewers independently identified studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias, with the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Authors of relevant trials were queried about unpublished data. Random effects model was used for meta-analyses. Effect heterogeneity was assessed through prediction intervals, and explored using sub-group analyses. Findings: Seventeen trials provided data on 4,549 persons. Unpublished data were obtained for 13 trials, representing 65% of synthesized data. Most interventions included a case management or a self-management component. None of the outcome comparisons provided conclusive evidence supporting the hypothesis that these interventions would lead to a decrease in acute hospital use. Furthermore, prediction intervals indicated possible and important increased service use associated with these interventions, such as emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and hospital days. Subgroup analyses did not favour any type of intervention. A limitation of this study is the inclusion of any type of health service intervention, which may have increased the observed heterogeneity. Conclusion: Despite a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis, including predominantly unpublished data, no health service intervention beyond usual care was found to reduce acute hospital use in community-dwelling persons with dementia. An important increase in service use may be associated with these interventions. Further research is urgently needed to identify effective interventions for this vulnerable population to limit rising acute hospital use, associated costs and adverse outcomes. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42016046444. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A small PCR-generated DNA fragment was introduced into a pharmaceutical grade ink as a molecular taggant, and the DNA tagged ink was delivered onto the surface of capsules by standard high-speed offset printing. The amount of DNA in the ink on each capsule is roughly 10−12 fold lower than that allowed as safe by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the WHO with regards to acceptable limits of residual DNA. The printed ink on the capsule surface was sampled by swabbing, followed by direct analysis of the DNA-swab complex, without subsequent DNA purification. It was shown that DNA recovered from the ink by swabbing was suitable for PCR-CE analysis—a widely used method in forensic science and was also suitable for qPCR and isothermal DNA amplification, when coupled with portable devices similar to those used for environmental sampling and food safety testing. The data set a precedent: A small DNA fragment could be introduced as an excipient into a pharmaceutical application, and thereafter tracked through the pharmaceutical supply chain via forensic DNA authentication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Assessing the epidemiological association between herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) and type 2 (HSV-2) infections in the United States, and characterizing the trends in the standardized HSV-1 and HSV-2 antibody prevalences (seroprevalences), 1999–2016. Methods: Source of data was the cross-sectional and nationally-representative biennial surveys of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). All nine NHANES rounds for 1999–2016 were included in analysis. Datasets of these rounds were combined and analyzed accounting for survey design and applying weighting procedures. Logistic regressions were used to identify associations with seropositivity. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: Odds of HSV-1 infection declined by 2.84% (95% CI: 1.70%-4.00%) annually among men, and by 2.22% (95% CI: 1.23%-3.21%) among women. Declines were highest at younger ages. Odds of HSV-2 infection declined by 2.23% (95% CI: 0.71%-3.82%) annually among men, and by 2.89% (95% CI: 1.57%-4.28%) among women. Odds ratio of the association between HSV-2 and HSV-1 seropositivity was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.60–0.84) for men and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.72–0.91) for women, after adjustment for age, ethnicity, and year. Conclusion: HSV-1 and HSV-2 seroprevalences showed a strong declining trend for at least two decades, for both sexes and for the different ethnicities, possibly reflecting improvements in hygiene and living conditions (for HSV-1), and safer sexual behavior (for HSV-2). HSV-1 seroprevalence declines are most pronounced among young individuals. There is evidence for cross protection between the two infections, suggestive of HSV-1 seropositivity being partially protective against HSV-2 infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tardive dyskinesia (TD) is a movement disorder resulting from treatment with typical and atypical antipsychotics. An estimated 16–50% of patients treated with antipsychotics have TD, but this number may be underestimated. The objectives of this study were to build an algorithm for use in electronic health records (EHRs) for the detection and characterization of TD patients, and to estimate the prevalence of TD in a population of patients exposed to antipsychotic medications. Methods: This retrospective observational study included patients identified in the Optum EHR Database who received a new or refill prescription for an antipsychotic medication between January 2011 and December 2015 (follow-up through June 2016). TD mentions were identified in the natural language–processed clinical notes, and an algorithm was built to classify the likelihood that the mention represented documentation of a TD diagnosis as probable, possible, unlikely, or negative. The final TD population comprised a subgroup identified using this algorithm, with ≥1 probable TD mention (highly likely TD). Results: 164,417 patients were identified for the antipsychotic population, with1,314 comprising the final TD population. Conservatively, the estimated average annual prevalence of TD in patients receiving antipsychotics was 0.8% of the antipsychotic user population. The average annual prevalence may be as high as 1.9% per antipsychotic user per year, allowing for a more-inclusive algorithm using both probable and possible TD. Most TD patients were prescribed atypical antipsychotics (1049/1314, 79.8%). Schizophrenia (601/1314, 45.7%), and paranoid and schizophrenia-like disorders (277/1314, 21.1%) were more prevalent in the TD population compared with the entire antipsychotic drug cohort (13,308/164,417; 8.1% and 19,359/164,417; 11.8%, respectively). Conclusions: Despite a lower TD prevalence than previously estimated and the predominant use of atypical antipsychotics, identified TD patients appear to have a substantial comorbidity burden that requires special treatment and management consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Reviews of violence against children in disaster settings focus on armed conflict. Little is understood about natural disasters which has implications in planning humanitarian response. We examined the magnitude and direction of the association between exposure to natural disasters and physical, emotional, and sexual violence against children, and assessed the quality of the evidence. Methods: We searched 15 health and social science databases from first record until May 16, 2018. Publications describing all types of quantitative study design were eligible for inclusion. We presented study characteristics and quality in a narrative form and generated pooled estimates using a three-level random effects model. We evaluated Cochrane’s Q with p-values below 0.10 and radial plots to assess heterogeneity. Planned subgroup analyses explored differential results by violence form, study design, and analysis method. Results: 11 publications met inclusion criteria. The majority were cross-sectional studies examining physical or sexual violence in the United States. We found no evidence of a consistent association or directional influence between natural disasters and violence against children. Combined categorical violence outcomes had substantial heterogeneity [Q (df = 66) = 252.83, p < 0.001]. Subgroups without evidence of heterogeneity had confidence intervals that included a possible null effect. Our findings were mainly limited by inconsistencies in operational definitions of violence, a lack of representative sampling, and unclear establishment of temporal order between natural disaster exposure and violence outcomes. Conclusions: Based on the available evidence, we cannot confidently conclude that natural disasters increase the level or severity of violence against children above non-disaster settings, however heterogeneity and study quality hamper our ability to draw firm conclusions. More nuanced and rigorous research is needed to inform practice and policy as natural disasters increasingly affect human populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water polo is a contact sport that is gaining popularity in the United States and carries a risk of repeated head impacts and concussion. The frequency and magnitude of sport-related head impacts have not been described for water polo. We aimed to compare patterns of empirically measured head impact exposure of male collegiate water polo players to patterns previously reported by a survey of current and former water polo athletes. Participants wore water polo caps instrumented with head impact sensors during three seasons of collegiate water polo. Peak linear acceleration (PLA) and peak rotational acceleration (PRA) were recorded for head impacts. Athlete positions were recorded by research staff at the occurrence of each head impact. Head impacts were sustained by athletes in offensive positions more frequently than in defensive and transition positions (246, 59.9% vs. 93, 22.6% vs. 72, 17.5%). 37% of all head impacts during gameplay were sustained by athletes playing the offensive center position. Impact magnitude (means ± SD: PLA = 36.1±12.3g, PRA = 5.0±2.9 krads/sec2) did not differ between position or game scenario. Among goalies, impact frequency and magnitude were similar between games (means ± SD: 0.54±.51 hits/game, PLA = 36.9±14.2g, PRA = 4.3±4.2 krads/sec2) and practices (means ± SD: 0.96±1.11 hits/practice, PLA = 43.7±14.5g, PRA = 3.9±2.5 krads/sec2). We report that collegiate water polo athletes are at risk for sport-related head impacts and impact frequency is dependent on game scenario and player position. In contrast, magnitude does not differ between scenarios or across positions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rationale: As part of the End TB Strategy, the World Health Organization calls for low-tuberculosis (TB) incidence settings to achieve pre-elimination (<10 cases per million) and elimination (<1 case per million) by 2035 and 2050, respectively. These targets require testing and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Objectives: To estimate the ability and costs of testing and treatment for LTBI to reach pre-elimination and elimination targets in California. Methods: We created an individual-based epidemic model of TB, calibrated to historical cases. We evaluated the effects of increased testing (QuantiFERON-TB Gold) and treatment (three months of isoniazid and rifapentine). We analyzed four test and treat targeting strategies: (1) individuals with medical risk factors (MRF), (2) non-USB, (3) both non-USB and MRF, and (4) all Californians. For each strategy, we estimated the effects of increasing test and treat by a factor of 2, 4, or 10 from the base case. We estimated the number of TB cases occurring and prevented, and net and incremental costs from 2017 to 2065 in 2015 U.S. dollars. Efficacy, costs, adverse events, and treatment dropout were estimated from published data. We estimated the cost per case averted and per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Measurements and main results: In the base case, 106,000 TB cases are predicted to 2065. Pre-elimination was achieved by 2065 in three scenarios: a 10-fold increase in the non-USB and persons with MRF (by 2052), and 4- or 10-fold increase in all Californians (by 2058 and 2035, respectively). TB elimination was not achieved by any intervention scenario. The most aggressive strategy, 10-fold in all Californians, achieved a case rate of 8 (95% UI 4–16) per million by 2050. Of scenarios that reached pre-elimination, the incremental net cost was $20 billion (non-USB and MRF) to $48 billion. These had an incremental cost per QALY of $657,000 to $3.1 million. A more efficient but somewhat less effective single-lifetime test strategy reached as low as $80,000 per QALY. Conclusions: Substantial gains can be made in TB control in coming years by scaling-up current testing and treatment in non-USB and those with medical risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diabetes, a chronic disease affecting over 29 million people in the United States, requires the integration of complex medical tasks into a person’s daily life. Patient-centered care and compassion are recognized as essential dimensions of the quality care experience. This research examined provider attributes that influence adherence to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) regimens and sought to understand the phenomena of provider attributes, treatment adherence, and their relationship to coping ability and treatment outcomes. This quantitative study sampled 474 people with T2DM using a 62-item online survey administered to three different groups. The sample population included people over age 18 diagnosed with T2DM. The first group included 91 persons with T2DM identified through a Facebook group and personal social media connections, the second group included 120 Amazon Mechanical Turk participants with T2DM, and the third group included 263 respondents from a Qualtrics panel who had T2DM. Results indicated that perceived provider compassion (β = .41, ρ < .001) and optimism (β = .48, ρ < .001) positively affected coping ability. Additionally, full mediation effects for self-management were revealed, with coping ability positively mediating the effect of compassion on self-management and the effects of optimism on self-management. Furthermore, full mediation effects were found for treatment satisfaction, with coping ability positively mediating the effect of compassion on treatment satisfaction and the effects of optimism on treatment satisfaction. This research has implications for patients, healthcare professionals, and leaders suggesting that providers who communicate with optimism and compassion positively affect coping ability. As a result, healthcare providers and professionals have an opportunity to enhance self-management adherence by helping their patients cope with the burdens of diabetes. In addition, this study has implications for developing provider communication tools aimed at assessing patients’ coping capacity and increasing compassionate communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cost-effective heat mitigation strategies are imperative for maintaining milk production and dairy farm profitability in the U.S. with projected climate change. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of four heat abatement strategies, including Minimal (open barn or shading), Moderate (forced ventilation), High (fans and misting), and Intense (air conditioning). Heat stress and subsequent impacts on milk production per cow were predicted across nine climatic regions in the U.S. for early (2015 to 2034), mid (2045 to 2064) and late (2081 to 2100) 21st century, using downscaled climate projections. Heat abatements were used to adjust predicted milk production losses and illustrate the potential to reduce milk production losses due to heat stress. Economic analysis included a cost-benefit ratio calculation associated with the implementation of each heat abatement. Results showed that milk production losses were expected to accelerate across the U.S. at a mean rate of 174±7 kg/cow/decade, with the fastest rate in the Southeast region. Relative to Minimal heat abatement, Moderate, High, and Intense heat abatements increased annual milk production per cow by 3%, 4%, and 6% during early-21st century, 3%, 6%, and 11% during mid-21st century, and 3%, 8%, and 21% during late-21st century, respectively. The cost effectiveness of different heat abatement strategies generally increased with subsequently stronger heat abatements. In mid- and late-21st century, mean annual net values of High and Intense heat stress abatement implementation approached -$30 to $190 /cow and -$20 to $590 /cow, respectively, with the largest net annual benefit in late-21st century under Intense abatement. Findings from the study demonstrate the value of using downscaled climate projections to shed light on local and regional strategies to abate heat stress on cattle and mitigate potential milk production losses due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

No studies have investigated the association between living arrangements and disability-free life expectancy in the United States, nor worldwide. This study aims to examine the differences in total and disability-free life expectancy among older Americans according to living arrangements. Data from the Health and Retirement Study (1998 to 2014) for non-Hispanic whites aged 50 and over (N = 21,612). Disability-free life expectancy by gender, living arrangement, and education are obtained from incidence-based multistate life tables. Overall, those who live only with their spouses/partners live 1–19 years longer with 3–25 more years without disability and 1–7 fewer years with disability than do those with other living arrangements. Among those with the same living arrangement, the higher educated live up to 6 years longer with up to 8 more years in a disability-free state and up to 2 fewer years in a disabled state. The study shows strong association between living arrangement and disability-free life expectancy by gender and education. Long-term care policy should take into account the length of life with/without disability by living arrangements and socioeconomic status and make use of the potential family resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets. The degree of forecast improvement due to nowcasting, however, is uneven across forecasting targets, with short-term forecasting targets seeing the largest improvements and seasonal targets such as the peak timing and intensity seeing relatively marginal improvements. The uneven forecasting improvements across targets hold even when “perfect” nowcasts are used. These findings suggest that further improvements to flu forecasting, particularly seasonal targets, will need to derive from other, non-nowcasting approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries have passed environmental laws aiming at preserving natural ecosystems, such as the Endangered Species Act of 1973 in the United States. Although those regulations seem to have improved preservation, they may have had unintended consequences in energy production. Here we show that while environmental constraints on hydropower may have preserved the wilderness and wildlife by restricting the development of hydroelectric projects, they led to more greenhouse gas emissions. Environmental regulations gave rise to a replacement of hydropower, which is a renewable, relatively low-emitting source of energy, with conventional fossil-fuel power, which is highly polluting. Our estimates indicate that, on average, each megawatt of fossil fuel power-generating capacity added to the grid because of environmental constraints on hydropower development led to an increase in annual carbon dioxide emissions of about 1,400 tons. Environmental regulations focusing only on the preservation of ecosystems appear to have encouraged electric utilities to substitute dirtier fuels for hydropower in electricity generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of future population growth will take place in the world’s cities and towns. Yet, there is no well-established, consistent way to measure either urban land or people. Even census-based urban concepts and measures undergo frequent revision, impeding rigorous comparisons over time and place. This study presents a new spatial approach to derive consistent urban proxies for the US. It compares census-designated urban blocks with proxies for land-based classifications of built-up areas derived from time-series of the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) for 1990–2010. This comparison provides a new way to understand urban structure and its changes: Most land that is more than 50% built-up, and people living on such land, are officially classified as urban. However, 30% of the census-designated urban population and land is located in less built-up areas that can be characterized as mainly suburban and peri-urban in nature. Such insights are important starting points for a new urban research program: creating globally and temporally consistent proxies to guide modelling of urban change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is affecting the growth, phenology, and distribution of species across northeastern United States. In response to these changes, some species have been adversely impacted while others have benefited. One species that has benefited from climate change, historically and in response to experimental treatments, is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a widely distributed annual weed and a leading cause of hay fever in North America. To better understand how climate change may affect the distribution of common ragweed, we built a maximum entropy (Maxent) predictive model using climate and bioclimatic data and over 700 observations across the eastern U.S. Our model performed well with an AUC score of 0.765 using four uncorrelated variables, including precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, August precipitation, and January maximum temperature. After building and testing our model, we then projected potential future common ragweed distribution using a suite of 13 global climate models (GCMs) under two future greenhouse gas scenarios for mid and late-century. In addition to providing georeferenced hot spots of potential future expansion, we also provide a metric of confidence by evaluating the number of GCMs that agree. We show a substantial contraction of common ragweed in central Florida, southern Appalachian Mountains, and northeastern Virginia and areas of potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, notably in northeastern U.S. However, the vast majority of this increase is projected to occur by mid-century and may be moderated somewhat by the 2070s, implying that common ragweed may be sensitive to climatic variability. Although other factors and modeling approaches should be explored, we offer preliminary insight into where common ragweed might be a new concern in the future. Due to the health impacts of ragweed, local weed control boards may be well advised to monitor areas of expansion and potentially increase eradication efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Breweries across the country are investing in energy efficient and low-carbon brewing practices. Drawing insights from the sustainable consumption and ecological economics literature, this analysis evaluates whether consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable beer and what predicts the value of the premium. Based on a survey of beer consumers from across the U.S. that contained one of two willingness-to-pay exercises, we evaluate what respondent attributes are associated with a higher willingness-to-pay for sustainably brewed beer. We find that the majority of beer consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable beer. Consumers who are prepared to pay a premium tend to already pay more per unit of beer, are more aware of their purchasing behavior and the manner in which their consumption patterns may affect the environment, and pursue lifestyles based on professional advancement, helping the environment, and helping other causes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although substantial attention has focused on efforts by the new Administration to block environmental policies, climate politics have been contentious in the US since well before the election of Donald Trump. In this paper, we extend previous work on empirical examinations of echo chambers in US climate politics using new data collected on the federal climate policy network in summer 2016. We test for the similarity and differences at two points in time in homophily and echo chambers using Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) to compare new findings from 2016 to previous work on data from 2010. We show that echo chambers continue to play a significant role in the network of information exchange among policy elites working on the issue of climate change. In contrast to previous findings where echo chambers centered on a binding international commitment to emission reductions, we find that the pre-existing echo chambers have almost completely disappeared and new structures have formed around one of the main components of the Obama Administration’s national climate policy: the Clean Power Plan. These results provide empirical evidence that science communication and policymaking at the elite level shift in relation to the policy instruments under consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reports of emotions experienced over the past week can be influenced by memory bias, which is more pronounced for people with depression. No studies, however, have examined memory bias for specific emotion clusters (e.g., sadness, anxiety, and anger) experienced on a day-to-day basis among people with depression or a history of depression. Participants (N = 1,657) from the Midlife in the United States Study were assessed for depression. Approximately 6 months later, participants reported their emotional experiences for 8 days and recalled these experiences on the final day. Differences in recalled and reported emotion were compared between participants with and without a history of depression. Participants overestimated experience only of negative emotions, particularly anger, and this negativity bias was greatest for participants with a history of depression. Feelings related to anger were prone to greater overestimation than sadness or anxiety. These findings emphasize the role of memory bias in retrospective reports of specific emotions and illustrate the presence of an amplified memory bias among people who are at a greater risk for recurrent depressive episodes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Promising school policies to improve children’s diets include providing fresh fruits and vegetables (F&V) and competitive food restrictions on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), yet the impact of national implementation of these policies in US schools on cardiometabolic disease (CMD) risk factors and outcomes is not known. Our objective was to estimate the impact of national implementation of F&V provision and SSB restriction in US elementary, middle, and high schools on dietary intake and body mass index (BMI) in children and future CMD mortality. Methods: We used comparative risk assessment (CRA) frameworks to model the impacts of these policies with input parameters from nationally representative surveys, randomized-controlled trials, and systematic reviews and meta-analyses. For children ages 5–18 years, this incorporated national data on current dietary intakes and BMI, impacts of these policies on diet, and estimated effects of dietary changes on BMI. In adults ages 25 and older, we further incorporated the sustainability of dietary changes to adulthood, effects of dietary changes on CMD, and national CMD death statistics, modeling effects if these policies had been in place when current US adults were children. Uncertainty across inputs was incorporated using 1000 Monte Carlo simulations. Results: National F&V provision would increase daily fruit intake in children by as much as 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 15.4, 37.7%), and would have small effects on vegetable intake. SSB restriction would decrease daily SSB intake by as much as 26.5% (95% UI: 6.4, 46.4%), and reduce BMI by as much as 0.7% (95% UI: 0.2, 1.2%). If F&V provision and SSB restriction were nationally implemented, an estimated 22,383 CMD deaths/year (95% UI: 18735, 25930) would be averted. Conclusion: National school F&V provision and SSB restriction policies implemented in elementary, middle, and high schools could improve diet and BMI in children and reduce CMD mortality later in life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The social and economic consequences of the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–9 has had serious impacts on population health, economic prospects, and overall wellbeing in all generations, particularly Millennials, Generation X, and Baby Boomers. The ways in which intergenerational inequality and global economic crises have affected population health, particularly with respect to excessive drinking and substance use in disadvantaged population groups has been understudied. Consequently, in this article, we seek to characterise the effects of the GFC on national trends in binge alcohol and substance use among Millennials, Generation X, and Baby Boomers. By doing so, we aim to contribute to a fuller understanding of the ways in which socioeconomic disadvantage engendered by the GFC has disparately affected the wellbeing of these generational cohorts. Methods and findings: We present results from National Survey on Drug Use and Health from 2007–16 to characterise binge alcohol and substance use among different generational cohorts in the United States during and after the GFC. Bivariate descriptive analysis and maximum-likelihood logit regressions focused on: (a) individual substances and binge drinking, (b) poly-use and (c) any use to simultaneously model how socioeconomic, demographic, and health characteristics were related to past-month substance use and to report the social, economic, and demographic correlates of substance use. Socioeconomic vulnerability was captured on a five-point scale comprised of: (1) health insurance status, (2) government assistance, (3) income, (4) self rated health, and (5) employment status. Millennials showed generally higher risk of binge alcohol and substance use during 2007–16 than Generation X, while Baby Boomers generally exhibited lower risk. Comparison of individual and poly-use patterns for the birth cohorts before and after reveals: Millennials were at significantly increased risk of use of binge alcohol (AOR = 1.51; 95% CI = 1.46–1.56), cocaine (AOR = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.03–1.37), heroin (AOR = 1.39; 95% CI = 1.01–1.91), and oxycontin (AOR = 2.33; 95% CI = 1.74–3.12) than Gen X while Baby Boomers were at significantly reduced risk of all substances. Nevertheless, Millennials were at significantly reduced risk of crack use (AOR = 0.33; 95% CI = 0.25–0.43) and poly-use (AOR = 0.56; 95% CI = 0.45–0.70) compared to Gen X. These differences may be related to measures of austerity and socioeconomic vulnerability. Millennials exhibited the highest vulnerability related to austerity with an average vulnerability score of 0.97 (95% CI = 0.96–0.98) while Baby Boomers exhibited the lowest average vulnerability score of 0.65 (95% CI = 0.64–0.66) with Generation X in between with 0.72 (95% CI = 0.71–0.73). Increased social and economic vulnerability after the 2007 crisis is strongly associated with higher rates of substance use in all generations. Conclusion: Millennials have been especially affected by socioeconomic changes associated with the GFC as reflected by their heightened vulnerability and increased use of binge alcohol and other substances compared to preceding generations. These findings suggest that attention is needed to address disparities in socioeconomic vulnerability, relationships to substance use and overall mental health of Millennials to mitigate the potential long term negative impacts of the GFC. In the context of a continuing international opioid and heroin crisis, the ways in which Millennials have been differentially affected warrants much greater attention both from policymakers and from researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tobacco addiction is a complex, multicomponent phenomenon stemming from nicotine's pharmacology and the user's biology, psychology, sociology, and environment. After decades of public denial, the tobacco industry now agrees with public health authorities that nicotine is addictive. In 2000, Philip Morris became the first major tobacco company to admit nicotine's addictiveness. Evolving definitions of addiction have historically affected subsequent policymaking. This article examines how Philip Morris internally conceptualized addiction immediately before and after this announcement.Methods and Findings: We analyzed previously secret, internal Philip Morris documents made available as a result of litigation against the tobacco industry. We compared these documents to public company statements and found that Philip Morris's move from public denial to public affirmation of nicotine's addictiveness coincided with pressure on the industry from poor public approval ratings, the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA), the United States government's filing of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) suit, and the Institute of Medicine's (IoM's) endorsement of potentially reduced risk products. Philip Morris continued to research the causes of addiction through the 2000s in order to create successful potentially reduced exposure products (PREPs). While Philip Morris's public statements reinforce the idea that nicotine's pharmacology principally drives smoking addiction, company scientists framed addiction as the result of interconnected biological, social, psychological, and environmental determinants, with nicotine as but one component. Due to the fragmentary nature of the industry document database, we may have missed relevant information that could have affected our analysis.Conclusions: Philip Morris's research suggests that tobacco industry activity influences addiction treatment outcomes. Beyond nicotine's pharmacology, the industry's continued aggressive advertising, lobbying, and litigation against effective tobacco control policies promotes various nonpharmacological determinants of addiction. To help tobacco users quit, policy makers should increase attention on the social and environmental dimensions of addiction alongside traditional cessation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate demand forecasting for new technology products is a key factor in the success of a business. We propose a way to forecasting a new product’s diffusion through technology diffusion and interest diffusion. Technology diffusion and interest diffusion are measured by the volume of patent citations and web search traffic, respectively. We apply the proposed method to forecast the sales of hybrid cars and industrial robots in the US market. The results show that that technology diffusion, as represented by patent citations, can explain long-term sales for hybrid cars and industrial robots. On the other hand, interest diffusion, as represented by web search traffic, can help to improve the predictability of market sales of hybrid cars in the short-term. However, interest diffusion is difficult to explain the sales of industrial robots due to the different market characteristics. Finding indicates our proposed model can relatively well explain the diffusion of consumer goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most prevalent sexually transmitted infection worldwide and can lead to the development of genital warts, and cancers throughout the body. Despite the availability of HPV vaccines for over a decade, uptake in the United States among adolescents and young adults remains well below national targets. While most efforts to improve HPV vaccine uptake have rightly focused on adolescents, there is still a tremendous opportunity to improve vaccination among young adults who have not been vaccinated against HPV. To that end, we report an exploratory examination of associations between HPV vaccination status and intentions with psychological traits that may impact HPV vaccine uptake with a national, demographically diverse sample of young adults (N = 1358) who completed an online survey. These psychological traits conceptually mapped onto motivations to: 1) understand health-related information, 2) deliberate, 3) manage uncertainty, and 4) manage threats. We found notable gender differences for the association of these motivations and vaccination status. For women, higher interest in and ability to understand health-related information seemed to distinguish those who reported receiving the HPV vaccine from those who did not. For men, less need to deliberate and greater needs to manage threat and uncertainty seemed to be the distinguishing motives for those who reported receiving the HPV vaccine compared to those who did not. Results for vaccination intentions were less consistent, but there was some evidence to indicate that, regardless of gender, greater health-related information interest and understanding and need to manage uncertainty and threats were associated with increased intention to receive the HPV vaccine, while greater need to deliberate was associated with decreased vaccination intentions. These results suggest that there are psychological differences that are associated with HPV vaccination decisions and that these motivations should be considered in efforts to improve HPV vaccine uptake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Men outperform women in many athletic endeavors due to physiological and anatomical differences (e.g. larger and faster muscle); however, the observed sex differences in elite athletic performance are typically larger than expected, and may reflect sex-related differences in opportunity or incentives. As collegiate rowing in the United States has been largely incentivized for women over the last 20 years, but not men, the purpose of this study was to examine sex differences in elite rowing performance over that timeframe. Finishing times from grand finale races for collegiate championship on-water performances (n = 480) and junior indoor performances (n = 1,280) were compared between men and women across 20 years (1997–2016), weight classes (heavy vs. lightweight) and finishing place. Participation of the numbers of men and women rowers were also quantified across years. Men were faster than women across all finishing places, weight classes and years of competition and performance declined across finishing place for both men and women (P<0.001). Interestingly, the reduction in performance time across finishing place was greater (P<0.001) for collegiate men compared to women in the heavyweight division. This result is opposite to other sports (e.g. running and swimming), and to lightweight rowing in this study, which provides women fewer incentives than in heavyweight rowing. Correspondingly, participation in collegiate rowing has increased by ~113 women per year (P<0.001), with no change (P = 0.899) for collegiate men. These results indicate that increased participation and incentives within collegiate rowing for women vs. men contribute to sex differences in athletic performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1976, the United States has seen over 1,400 judicial executions, and these have been highly concentrated in only a few states and counties. The number of executions across counties appears to fit a stretched distribution. These distributions are typically reflective of self-reinforcing processes where the probability of observing an event increases for each previous event. To examine these processes, we employ two-pronged empirical strategy. First, we utilize bootstrapped Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to determine whether the pattern of executions reflect a stretched distribution, and confirm that they do. Second, we test for event-dependence using the Conditional Frailty Model. Our tests estimate the monthly hazard of an execution in a given county, accounting for the number of previous executions, homicides, poverty, and population demographics. Controlling for other factors, we find that the number of prior executions in a county increases the probability of the next execution and accelerates its timing. Once a jurisdiction goes down a given path, the path becomes self-reinforcing, causing the counties to separate out into those never executing (the vast majority of counties) and those which use the punishment frequently. This finding is of great legal and normative concern, and ultimately, may not be consistent with the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: As gentrification continues in New York City as well as other urban areas, residents of lower socioeconomic status maybe at higher risk for residential displacement. Yet, there have been few quantitative assessments of the health impacts of displacement. The objective of this paper is to assess the association between displacement and healthcare access and mental health among the original residents of gentrifying neighborhoods in New York City. Methods: We used 2 data sources: 1) 2005–2014 American Community Surveys to identify gentrifying neighborhoods in New York City, and 2) 2006–2014 Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System. Our cohort included 12,882 residents of gentrifying neighborhoods in 2006 who had records of emergency department visits or hospitalization at least once every 2 years in 2006–2014. Rates of emergency department visits and hospitalizations post-baseline were compared between residents who were displaced and those who remained. Results: During 2006–2014, 23% were displaced. Compared with those who remained, displaced residents were more likely to make emergency department visits and experience hospitalizations, mainly due to mental health (Rate Ratio = 1.8, 95% confidence interval = 1.5, 2.2), after controlling for baseline demographics, health status, healthcare utilization, residential movement, and the neighborhood of residence in 2006. Conclusions: These findings suggest negative impacts of displacement on healthcare access and mental health, particularly among adults living in urban areas and with a history of frequent emergency department visits or hospitalizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After 40 years, the 1976 US Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) was revised under the Frank R. Lautenberg Chemical Safety for the 21st Century Act. Its original goals of protecting the public from hazardous chemicals were hindered by complex and cumbersome administrative burdens, data limitations, vulnerabilities in risk assessments, and recurring corporate lawsuits. As a result, countless chemicals were entered into commercial use without toxicological information. Few chemicals of the many identified as potential public health threats were regulated or banned. This paper explores the factors that have worked against a comprehensive and rational policy for regulating toxic chemicals and discusses whether the TSCA revisions offer greater public protection against existing and new chemicals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the causal uncertainty surrounding the flash crash in the U.S. Treasury bond market on October 15, 2014, and the unresolved concern that no clear link has been identified between the start of the flash crash at 9:33 and the opening of the U.S. equity market at 9:30. We consider the contributory effect of mini flash crashes in equity markets, and find that the number of equity mini flash crashes in the three-minute window between market open and the Treasury Flash Crash was 2.6 times larger than the number experienced in any other three-minute window in the prior ten weekdays. We argue that (a) this statistically significant finding suggests that mini flash crashes in equity markets both predicted and contributed to the October 2014 U.S. Treasury Bond Flash Crash, and (b) mini-flash crashes are important phenomena with negative externalities that deserve much greater scholarly attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Military veterans may have higher rates of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) mortality than non-veterans. Few studies, with sparse exposure information and mixed results, have studied relationships between military-related factors and ALS survival. We evaluated associations between military-related factors and ALS survival among U.S. military veteran cases. Methods: We followed 616 medical record-confirmed cases from enrollment (2005–2010) in the Genes and Environmental Exposures in Veterans with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis study until death or July 25, 2013, whichever came first. We ascertained vital status information from several sources within the Department of Veterans Affairs. We obtained information regarding military service, deployments, and 39 related exposures via standardized telephone interviews. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals. We adjusted for potential confounding and missing covariate data biases via inverse probability weights. We also used inverse probability weights to adjust for potential selection bias among a case group that included a disproportionate number of long-term survivors at enrollment. Results: We observed 446 deaths during 24,267 person-months of follow-up (median follow-up: 28 months). Survival was shorter for cases who served before 1950, were deployed to World War II, or mixed and applied burning agents, with HRs between 1.58 and 2.57. Longer survival was associated with exposure to: paint, solvents, or petrochemical substances; local food not provided by the Armed Forces; or burning agents or Agent Orange in the field with HRs between 0.56 and 0.73. Conclusions: Although most military-related factors were not associated with survival, associations we observed with shorter survival are potentially important because of the large number of military veterans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a diffusion process to describe the global dynamic evolution of credit operations at a national level given observed operations at a subnational level in a sovereign country. Empirical analysis with a unique dataset from Brazilian federate constituents supports the conclusions. Despite the heterogeneity observed in credit operations at a subnational level, the aggregated dynamics at a national level were accurately described by the proposed model. Results may guide management of public finances, particularly debt manager authorities in charge of reaching surplus targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To synthesize outputs and outcomes of community-based tuberculosis targeted testing and treatment (TTT) programs in foreign-born populations (FBP) in the United States (US). Methods: We systematically searched five bibliographic databases and other key resources. Two reviewers independently applied eligibility criteria to screen citations and extracted data from included studies. We excluded studies that contained <50% FBP participants or that examined steps only after diagnosis of latent TB infection (LTBI). We stratified studies as majority FBP (50–90%) and predominantly FBP (>90%). We used random-effects meta-analytic models to calculate pooled proportions and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for community-based TTT cascade steps (e.g., recruited, tested and treated), and used them to create two hypothetical cascades for 100 individuals. Results: Fifteen studies conducted in 10 US states met inclusion criteria. Studies were heterogeneous in recruitment strategies and mostly recruited participants born in Latin America. Of 100 hypothetical participants (predominantly FBP) reached by community-based TTT, 40.4 (95% CI 28.6 to 50.1) would have valid test results, 15.7 (95% CI 9.9 to 21.8) would test positive, and 3.6 (95% CI 1.4 to 6.0) would complete LTBI treatment. Likewise, of 100 hypothetical participants (majority FBP) reached, 77.9 (95% CI 54.0 to 92.1) would have valid test results, 26.5 (95% CI 18.0 to 33.5) would test positive, and 5.4 (95% CI 2.1 to 9.0) would complete LTBI treatment. Of those with valid test results, pooled proportions of LTBI test positive for predominantly FBP and majority FBP were 38.9% (95% CI 28.6 to 49.8) and 34.3% (95% CI 29.3 to 39.5), respectively. Conclusions: We observed high attrition throughout the care cascade in FBP participating in LTBI community-based TTT studies. Few studies included cascade steps prior to LTBI diagnosis, limiting our review findings. Moreover, Asia-born populations in the US are substantially underrepresented in the FBP community-based TTT literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Toxocariasis is one of the most common neglected infections of poverty in the U.S. with a reported National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III (1988–1994) seroprevalence of 13.9% based on enzyme immunoassay testing. We reviewed NHANES data from 2011–2014 to assess current levels. Sera collected from NHANES 2011–2014 participants six years and older were tested for exposure using rTc-CTL-1 antigen, a more sensitive and specific recombinant antigen for IgG antibodies for Toxocara spp. These results were subdivided into children (age 6–17) and adults (age ≥ 18) and then compared between various sociodemographic characteristics. Given prior associations of Toxocara exposure with atopic disease and lead exposure, we also reviewed laboratory values including complete blood counts and blood and urine lead levels. Data from 13,509 individuals with Toxocara antibody results were examined including 3337 children (15.2%) and 10172 adults (84.8%). Overall seroprevalence was 5.1%. In adults increased antibody positivity occurred with non-White ethnicity, male gender, less than college-level education and lower income. Among children, increased antibody positivity was solely related to a lack of health insurance. Additionally, seropositivity was associated with increased blood lead and eosinophil levels in adults and both blood and urine lead levels in children. Relative to NHANES III (1988–1994), current data suggest an overall decrease in Toxocara spp. seroprevalence from 13.9% to 5.1%, however this may be artificially lowered due to difference in testing methods used. Persistent disparities appear to be associated with at-risk populations such as minority ethnicity and low socioeconomic status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

NASA’s periodic selection of astronauts is a highly selective process accepting applications from the general population, wherein the mechanics of selection are not made public. This research was an effort to determine if biases (specifically age) exist in the process and, if so, at which points they might manifest. Two sets of analyses were conducted. The first utilized data requested via the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) on NASA astronaut applicants for the 2009 and 2013 selection years. Using a series of multinomial and logistic regressions, the data were analyzed to uncover whether age of the applicants linearly or nonlinearly affected their likelihood of receiving an invitation, as well as their likelihood of being selected into the astronaut program. The second used public data on age at selection and age at other career milestones for every astronaut selected from 1959 to 2013 to analyze trends in age over time using ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression and Pearson’s correlation. The results for the FOIA data revealed a nonlinear relationship between age and receiving an interview, as well as age and selection into the astronaut program, but the most striking observation was the loss of age diversity at each stage of selection. Applicants younger or older than approximately 40 years were significantly less likely to receive invitations for interviews and were significantly less likely to be selected as an astronaut. Analysis of the public-source data for all selections since the beginning of the astronaut program revealed significant age trends over time including a gradual increase in selectee age and decreased tenure at NASA after last flight, with average age at retirement steady over the entire history of the astronaut program at approximately 48 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2015, we conducted a cross-sectional, Internet-based, U.S. nationally representative probability survey of 2,021 adults (975 men, 1,046 women) focused on a broad range of sexual behaviors. Individuals invited to participate were from the GfK KnowledgePanel®. The survey was titled the 2015 Sexual Exploration in America Study and survey completion took about 12 to 15 minutes. The survey was confidential and the researchers never had access to respondents’ identifiers. Respondents reported on demographic items, lifetime and recent sexual behaviors, and the appeal of 50+ sexual behaviors. Most (>80%) reported lifetime masturbation, vaginal sex, and oral sex. Lifetime anal sex was reported by 43% of men (insertive) and 37% of women (receptive). Common lifetime sexual behaviors included wearing sexy lingerie/underwear (75% women, 26% men), sending/receiving digital nude/semi-nude photos (54% women, 65% men), reading erotic stories (57% of participants), public sex (≥43%), role-playing (≥22%), tying/being tied up (≥20%), spanking (≥30%), and watching sexually explicit videos/DVDs (60% women, 82% men). Having engaged in threesomes (10% women, 18% men) and playful whipping (≥13%) were less common. Lifetime group sex, sex parties, taking a sexuality class/workshop, and going to BDSM parties were uncommon (each <8%). More Americans identified behaviors as “appealing” than had engaged in them. Romantic/affectionate behaviors were among those most commonly identified as appealing for both men and women. The appeal of particular behaviors was associated with greater odds that the individual had ever engaged in the behavior. This study contributes to our understanding of more diverse adult sexual behaviors than has previously been captured in U.S. nationally representative probability surveys. Implications for sexuality educators, clinicians, and individuals in the general population are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In recent decades the overall smoking prevalence in the US has fallen steadily. This study examines whether the same trend is seen in the Medicaid population. Methods and findings: National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data from 17 consecutive annual surveys from 1997 to 2013 (combined N = 514,043) were used to compare smoking trends for 4 insurance groups: Medicaid, the Uninsured, Private Insurance, and Other Coverage. Rates of chronic disease and psychological distress were also compared. Results: Adjusted smoking prevalence showed no detectable decline in the Medicaid population (from 33.8% in 1997 to 31.8% in 2013, trend test P = 0.13), while prevalence in the other insurance groups showed significant declines (38.6%-34.7% for the Uninsured, 21.3%-15.8% for Private Insurance, and 22.6%-16.8% for Other Coverage; all P’s<0.005). Among individuals who have ever smoked, Medicaid recipients were less likely to have quit (38.8%) than those in Private Insurance (62.3%) or Other Coverage (69.8%; both P’s<0.001). Smokers in Medicaid were more likely than those in Private Insurance and the Uninsured to have chronic disease (55.0% vs 37.3% and 32.4%, respectively; both P’s<0.01). Smokers in Medicaid were also more likely to experience severe psychological distress (16.2% for Medicaid vs 3.2% for Private Insurance and 7.6% for the Uninsured; both P’s<0.001). Conclusions: The high and relatively unchanging smoking prevalence in the Medicaid population, low quit ratio, and high rates of chronic disease and severe psychological distress highlight the need to focus on this population. A targeted and sustained campaign to help Medicaid recipients quit smoking is urgently needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we extend some usual techniques of classification resulting from a large-scale data-mining and network approach. This new technology, which in particular is designed to be suitable to big data, is used to construct an open consolidated database from raw data on 4 million patents taken from the US patent office from 1976 onward. To build the pattern network, not only do we look at each patent title, but we also examine their full abstract and extract the relevant keywords accordingly. We refer to this classification as semantic approach in contrast with the more common technological approach which consists in taking the topology when considering US Patent office technological classes. Moreover, we document that both approaches have highly different topological measures and strong statistical evidence that they feature a different model. This suggests that our method is a useful tool to extract endogenous information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite known health disparities for sexual minorities, few studies have described sexual function by sexual orientation using a robust approach to measurement of sexual function. We compared recent sexual function and satisfaction by sexual orientation among English-speaking US adults. Methods and findings: Cross-sectional surveys were administered by KnowledgePanel® (GfK), an online panel that uses address-based probability sampling and is representative of the civilian, noninstitutionalized US population. Data were collected in 2013 from the general population (n = 3314, 35% response rate) and in 2014 from self-identified lesbian, gay, and bisexual adults (n = 1011, 50% response rate). Sexual function and satisfaction were measured using the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System® Sexual Function and Satisfaction measure version 2.0 (PROMIS SexFS v2). The PROMIS SexFS v2 is a comprehensive, customizable measurement system with evidence for validity in diverse populations. A score of 50 (SD 10) on each domain corresponds to the average for US adults sexually active in the past 30 days. We adjusted all statistics for the complex sample designs and report differences within each sex where the 95% CIs do not overlap, corresponding to p<0.01. Among US men who reported any sexual activity in the past 30 days, there were no differences in erectile function or orgasm-ability. Compared to heterosexual men, sexual minority men reported higher oral dryness and lower orgasm-pleasure and satisfaction. Compared to heterosexual men, gay men reported lower interest, higher anal discomfort and higher oral discomfort. Among sexually active women, there were no differences in the domains of vulvar discomfort-clitoral, orgasm-pleasure, or satisfaction. Compared to heterosexual women, sexual minority women reported higher oral dryness. Lesbian women reported lower vaginal discomfort than other women; lesbian women reported higher lubrication and orgasm-ability than heterosexual women. Bisexual women reported higher interest, higher vulvar discomfort-labial and higher anal discomfort than other women, as well as higher oral discomfort compared to heterosexual women. Conclusions: Recent sexual function and satisfaction differed by sexual orientation among US adults. Sexual minority men and women had decrements in domains of sexual function that have not traditionally been included in multi-dimensional self-report measures. Clinicians should make themselves aware of their patients’ sexual concerns and recognize that sexual minority patients may be more vulnerable to certain sexual difficulties than heterosexual patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Norms and stigma regarding pregnancy decisions (parenting, adoption, and abortion) are salient to maternal well-being, particularly for groups disproportionately affected by unintended pregnancy. However, there are few validated measures of individual-level perceptions of norms and stigma around pregnancy decisions. Additionally, little is known about variation in the content of norms regarding pregnancy decisions, and in stigma related to violations of these norms, across socio-demographic groups. Methods: To create measures of perceived norms and stigma around pregnancy decisions, we developed and pre-tested 97 survey items using a mixed methods approach. The resulting survey was administered to 642 young adult women recruited from health department clinics and a public university campus in Birmingham, Alabama. Principal components factor analyses, reliability analyses, independent t-tests, and correlation analyses were conducted to establish the reliability and validity of scales. Additionally, multiple linear regression was used to identify demographic predictors of higher scale scores. Results: Factor analyses revealed four subscales for each pregnancy decision: conditional acceptability, anticipated reactions, stereotypes/misperceptions, and attitudes. The total scales and their subscales demonstrated good internal reliability (alpha coefficients 0.72–0.94). The mean scores for each scale were significantly associated with each other, with related measures, and differed by sociodemographic characteristics. Specifically, in adjusted analyses, women in the university setting and White women expressed more negative attitudes and stigma around parenting. Minority women endorsed more negative norms and stigma around adoption. Finally, women from the health department, White women, and religious women expressed more negative norms and stigma around abortion. Conclusion: Findings suggest that our multidimensional measures have good psychometric properties in our sample of young women in the U.S. South, and highlight the importance of conceptualizing and measuring norms and stigmas around all pregnancy decisions. These scales may be of use in research on pregnancy decision-making and evaluation of stigma-reduction interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a bibliometric, citation network-based method for assessing the social validation of novel research, and applies this method to the development of high-throughput toxicology research at the US Environmental Protection Agency. Social validation refers to the acceptance of novel research methods by a relevant scientific community; it is formally independent of the technical validation of methods, and is frequently studied in history, philosophy, and social studies of science using qualitative methods. The quantitative methods introduced here find that high-throughput toxicology methods are spread throughout a large and well-connected research community, which suggests high social validation. Further assessment of social validation involving mixed qualitative and quantitative methods are discussed in the conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The U.S. is the main country in the world that delivers its food assistance primarily via transoceanic shipments of commodity-based in-kind food. This approach is costlier and less timely than cash-based assistance, which includes cash transfers, food vouchers, and local and regional procurement, where food is bought in or nearby the recipient country. The U.S.’s approach is exacerbated by a requirement that half of its transoceanic food shipments need to be sent on U.S.-flag vessels. We estimate the effect of these U.S. food assistance distribution policies on child mortality in northern Kenya by formulating and optimizing a supply chain model. In our model, monthly orders of transoceanic shipments and cash-based interventions are chosen to minimize child mortality subject to an annual budget constraint and to policy constraints on the allowable proportions of cash-based interventions and non-US-flag shipments. By varying the restrictiveness of these policy constraints, we assess the impact of possible changes in U.S. food aid policies on child mortality. The model includes an existing regression model that uses household survey data and geospatial data to forecast the mean mid-upper-arm circumference Z scores among children in a community, and allows food assistance to increase Z scores, and Z scores to influence mortality rates. We find that cash-based interventions are a much more powerful policy lever than the U.S.-flag vessel requirement: switching to cash-based interventions reduces child mortality from 4.4% to 3.7% (a 16.2% relative reduction) in our model, whereas eliminating the U.S.-flag vessel restriction without increasing the use of cash-based interventions generates a relative reduction in child mortality of only 1.1%. The great majority of the gains achieved by cash-based interventions are due to their reduced cost, not their reduced delivery lead times; i.e., the reduction of shipping expenses allows for more food to be delivered, which reduces child mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both obesity (body mass index ≥ 30) and educational attainment have increased dramatically in the United States since the 1970s. This study analyzed the influences of educational inequalities in obesity and population improvements in education on national obesity trends between 1970 and 2010. For non-Hispanic white and black males and females aged 25–74 years, educational differences in the probability of being obese were estimated from the 1971–2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, and population distributions of age and educational groups, from the 1970 Census and 2010 American Community Survey. In the total population, obesity increased from 15.7% to 38.8%, and there were increases in the greater obese probabilities of non-college graduates relative to four-year college graduates. The increase in obesity would have been lower by 10% (2.2 percentage points) if educational inequalities in obesity had stayed at their 1970 values and lower by one third (7.9 points) if obesity inequalities had been eliminated. Obesity inequalities were larger for females than males and for whites than blacks, and obesity did not differ by education among black males. As a result, the impact of obesity inequalities on the obesity trend was largest among white females (a 47% reduction in the obesity increase if obesity inequalities had been eliminated), and virtually zero among black males. On the other hand, without educational improvements, the obesity increase would have been 9% more in the total population, 23% more among white females and not different in the other three subpopulations. Results indicate that obesity inequalities made sizable contributions to the obesity trends, and the obesity reductions associated with educational improvements were more limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]