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Timely release of flow from upstream hydropower generation facilities on the Peace River can enhance potential ice-jam flooding near the drying Peace–Athabasca Delta (PAD), a Ramsar wetland of international importance and homeland to Indigenous Peoples. An important consideration in deciding whether and when to commence a release is the celerity of the breakup front as it advances along the Peace River. Relevant historical data for a key stretch of the river are analyzed to determine average celerities, which can vary by an order of magnitude from year to year. Seven breakup events are identified that might have been candidates for a release, and the predictability of associated celerities is explored in terms of antecedent hydroclimatic variables, including cumulative winter snowfall, snow water equivalent on 1 April, ice cover thickness, coldness of the winter, and freezeup level. It is shown that celerity can be predicted to within a factor of two or less, with the freezeup level giving the best results. Three of the seven "promising" events culminated in PAD floods and were associated with the three highest celerities. The empirical findings are shown to generally align with physical understanding of breakup driving and resisting factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major ice jams that occasionally form in lower Peace River generate extensive flooding, which helps replenish the perched basins of Peace-Athabasca Delta, a Ramsar wetland of international importance and a UNESCO World Heritage Site. This complex and dynamic ecosystem has experienced prolonged dry periods since the late 1960s, coincident with the construction of the W.A.C. Bennett hydroelectric dam in British Columbia. Physically-based and paleolimnological studies differ with respect to the impact of regulation on flood frequency. This issue is examined herein, based entirely on the historical record of observed ice-jam flood events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice processes in general, and ice jams in particular, play a dominant role in the hydrologic regime of Canadian rivers, often causing extreme floods and affecting the life cycle of many aquatic, terrestrial, and avian species. Various numerical models have been developed to help simulate the formation and consequences of these very dynamic and often destructive jam events. To test and compare the performance of existing models, a series of three tests have been devised and coordinated by a task force appointed by the Committee on River Ice Processes and the Environment (CRIPE). The results indicate that the overall performance of the models is good when calibration data are available, but considerably more varied when the models are applied in uncalibrated or 'blind' mode. However, the diversity of results in the blind mode may be attributed more to the variations in perceptions of the physical processes by the users, as compared to the mechanics of the numerical computations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Since the late 1960s, a paucity of ice-jam flooding in the lower Peace River has resulted in prolonged dry periods and considerable reduction in the area covered by lakes and ponds that provide habitat for aquatic life in the Peace–Athabasca Delta region. To help identify the causes of this trend and assess future conditions under a changing climate, a field observation program was conducted during 1999–2003. Limited data were also obtained during a significant event in 2007. This program has furnished the first detailed documentation of ice processes in the lower Peace. Though focusing on the breakup period, relevant antecedent conditions were also documented. Freezeup often involves formation of thickened ice covers, which lead to high freezeup stages and potentially to enhanced growth of the solid-ice layer during the winter. Ice decay prior to breakup can be moderate to severe, and is manifested in saturation and candling. The type of observed breakup ranged from essential melt-out in 2000, to occasional jamming upstream of the delta reach in 2003, and to a moderate delta flood in 2007. The field observations and measurements, including the only ice jam profile that has been measured in the lower Peace, are shown to be consistent with current physical understanding of breakup and jamming processes. The main factors conducive to ice-jam flooding are identified and their relative importance is assessed using physically-based breakup criteria. Breakup patterns are shown to be strongly influenced by the very low slope of the river, which amplifies the importance of waves generated by ice jam releases. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This article discusses the mechanisms that lead to breakup of the ice cover and jamming within the delta reach of Peace River-Athabasca Delta region in Canada. According to the authors, the extremely flat lower Peace River does not generally allow long period waves caused by spring snowmelt to dislodge the winter ice cover. However, major ice jams do occur on occasion form in the middle section of the river and move to the delta via repeated stalls and releases. The releases cause steep waves which amplify the hydrodynamic forces acting on the ice cover and cause it to become dislodged.

Major ice jams forming in lower reaches of the Peace River during spring breakup have been identified as the main agents of flooding and replenishment of perched basins of the Peace–Athabasca Delta, one of the world's largest inland freshwater deltas that supports a dynamic and valuable ecosystem. The paucity of ice jamming in the lower Peace River following construction of the Bennett Dam and the potential impacts of climate change have raised concerns regarding habitat degradation. One of the factors controlling ice-jam formation is the thickness of the winter ice cover, which may decrease in the future as a result of climatic warming, known to be most pronounced in northern parts of the globe and during the winter season. Using downscaled daily output from six Global Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, ice thickness is calculated for the years 1950 to 2100. Comparisons of monthly model-generated air temperatures and winter snowfall to historical data at nearby Fort Chipewyan indicate satisfactory agreement in terms of both magnitude and variability. Future projections show that under the highest emission scenario, average thickness decreases by about 0.2 m between the 1980s and the 2050s; and by an additional 0.1 m by the 2080s. Projected probability distributions of ice thickness point to increased incidence of thermal breakup, potentially reducing the already-low chances of ice-jam flooding. At the same time, a need for enhanced ice thickness monitoring is identified, aiming to develop a database of annual thickness values at selected sites within the lower reach of Peace River. • Peace-Athabasca Delta is partly sustained by Peace River ice-jam flooding. • Ice cover thickness can be a limiting factor to ice-jam occurrence. • Downscaled daily temperature and precipitation from six CMIP5 GCMs examined. • Thinner ice covers projected for the 2050s and 2080s under two RCP scenarios. • Likely to result in reduced ice-jam flood frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]