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This paper explores the cause-and-effect relationship between the elderly population and global economic growth, focusing on different continents. A panel dataset spanning from 1961 to 2020 is utilized, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serving as the key measure for economic growth, represented as the percentage change in annual GDP. The study specifically centers on individuals aged 65 and above as a percentage of the total population. The analysis employs a Panel Granger causality test to assess the impact of the elderly population on economic growth. The results reveal a unidirectional Granger causality for Africa and Oceania, suggesting a one-way influence from the elderly population to economic growth. Conversely, instances of bidirectional Granger causality are identified for Asia, Europe, North America, and South America, indicating a mutual influence between the elderly population and economic growth during the study period. The study concludes that an endogenous relationship between economic growth and the elderly population emerges, but notably, this relationship becomes apparent only after an economy has completed its transition in economic development. This implies that the dynamics of the elderly population and economic growth are interlinked, with the nature of their interaction becoming more pronounced in the later stages of economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the causal relationship between the economy and the elderly population in 15 European countries. The economy was measured by the Per Capita Gross Domestic Product growth rate, while the population aged above 65 as a percentage of the total was considered the elderly population. The data were obtained from a time series dataset published by the World Bank for six decades from 1961 to 2021. The Granger causality test was employed in the study to analyse the impact between the economy and the elderly population. An alternate approach, wavelet coherence, was used to demonstrate the changes to the relationship between the two variables in Europe over the 60 years. The findings from the Granger causality test indicate a unidirectional Granger causality from the economy to the elderly population for Luxembourg, Austria, Denmark, Spain, and Sweden, while vice versa for Greece and the United Kingdom. Furthermore, for Belgium, Finland, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, and Turkey, Granger causality does not exist between the said variables. Moreover, wavelet coherence analysis depicts that for Europe, the elderly population negatively affected the economic growth in the 1960s, and vice versa in the 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to explore the causal relationship between the economy and the elderly population globally as well as continent-wise. This research was designed as a continent-wide study to investigate the differences between several regions simultaneously. The economy was measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth rate while the population aged above 65 as a percentage of the total was considered the elderly population. A panel dataset published by the World Bank for a period of six decades from 1961 to 2020 covering 84 countries was used as data for the analysis. Wavelet coherence was the methodology used for the study since it was considered suitable to present causality as well as the causal direction between the two variables for different sections during the six decades. Thereafter, Granger causality was applied for a cross-country analysis to gain further insights on the causality of individual countries over the years. Findings of the study reveal that the causality and its direction have been changing over time for most continents. Negative correlations with the leading variable interchanging with time are evident for the majority of the regions. Nevertheless, results indicate that in a global perspective, elderly population predominantly leads the economic growth with a positive correlation. Research approach allows ascertaining the short-term and medium-term changes that occurred concerning the direction of the relationship throughout the stipulated period of the study, which could not be drawn by any previous study. Even though region-wise literature is available on this topic, global studies for decades have not been conducted yet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]