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Our study uses a multinomial logit model to analyze the concurrent termination experience of adjustable-rate and fixed-rate mortgages. A new set of ARM-specific interactive determinants expands the conventional FRM specification to isolate the unique termination behavior of ARMs. We find that expected rate adjustments and large lifetime caps are positively related to ARM termination probabilities while long adjustment frequencies are inversely related. Caps, both periodic and lifetime, have a secondary, inverse effect on termination probabilities when interest-rate movements exceed cap limits. The model also shows that interest-rate expectations affect FRM terminations more strongly than ARM terminations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract. This paper analyzes determinants of the fifteen- versus thirty-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) loan term decision. Because the thirty-year FRM may be converted (by partial prepayment) to the shorter term, the thirty-year instrument provides the implicit option to extend repayment. Relative rates measure the price (cost) of this option to the consumer. The results indicate that the term decision of consumers is highly sensitive to relative rates: probit estimates using data from a large national lending institution for the 1987 to 1990 period indicate that a 1% increase in the ratio of fifteen- to thirty-year rates lowers the probability of fifteen-year term choice by 20%. The results also indicate that expected housing price appreciation, which measures investment determinants of housing demand, is negatively related to the fifteen-year FRM term choice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]