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Background: The relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors versus unavoidable stochastic risk factors to the variation in cancer risk among tissues have become a widely-discussed topic. Some claim that the stochastic effects of DNA replication are mainly responsible, others believe that cancer risk is heavily affected by environmental and hereditary factors. Some of these studies made evidence from the correlation analysis between the lifetime number of stem cell divisions within each tissue and tissue-specific lifetime cancer risk. However, they did not consider the measurement error in the estimated number of stem cell divisions, which is caused by the exposure to different levels of genetic and environmental factors. This will obscure the authentic contribution of environmental or inherited factors.Methods: In this study, we proposed two distinct modeling strategies, which integrate the measurement error model with the prevailing model of carcinogenesis to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of hereditary and environmental factors to cancer development. Then, we applied the proposed strategies to cancer data from 423 registries in 68 different countries (global-wide), 125 registries across China (national-wide of China), and 139 counties in Shandong province (Shandong provincial, China), respectively.Results: The results suggest that the contribution of genetic and environmental factors is at least 92% to the variation in cancer risk among 17 tissues. Moreover, mutations occurring in progenitor cells and differentiated cells are less likely to be accumulated enough for cancer to occur, and the carcinogenesis is more likely to originate from stem cells. Except for medulloblastoma, the contribution of genetic and environmental factors to the risk of other 16 organ-specific cancers are all more than 60%.Conclusions: This work provides additional evidence that genetic and environmental factors play leading roles in cancer development. Therefore, the identification of modifiable environmental and hereditary risk factors for each cancer is highly recommended, and primary prevention in early life-course should be the major focus of cancer prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To explore the relationship between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and the metabolic syndrome (MetS), and evaluate the value of NAFLD as a marker for predicting the risk of MetS in a large scale prospective cohort from northern urban Han Chinese population. Materials and Methods: A total of 17,920 MetS-free at baseline cohort members was included in the current study between 2005 and 2011. The baseline characteristics of the cohort were compared by NAFLD status at baseline, MetS status after follow-up. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the unadjusted or adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for NAFLD at baseline predicting the risk of MetS. Results: 2,183 (12.18%) new cases of MetS occurred between 2005 and 2011. In unadjusted model, HRs (95% CIs) for NAFLD predicting MetS was 3.65 (3.35, 3.97). After adjusting the confounding factors of age, gender, the metabolic factors, smoke and exercise, the HRs (95% CIs) was 1.70 (1.55, 1.87). Gender difference was observed, adjusted HRs (95% CIs) of NAFLD for predicting MetS were 2.06(1.72, 2.46) and 1.55(1.39, 1.72) in female and male population, respectively. Moreover, 163 participants developed MetS among participants without any MetS component at baseline, and its adjusted HRs was still significant, 1.87 (1.12, 3.13). Conclusion: The present study indicates that NAFLD is an independent risk factor for predicting the risk of MetS in northern urban Han Chinese population, and the people with NAFLD should initiate weight and dietary control to prevent the occurrence of MetS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]