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Excessive use of groundwater in irrigation (mainly for production of winter wheat) in the North China Plain (NCP) has resulted in markedly decreased groundwater levels. Alternative cropping systems may have potential to reduce groundwater use in the region. The APSIM (Agricultural Production System Simulator) farming systems model was used to simulate long-term (1981–2015) water use, net overdraft and crop yield for eight cropping systems. The wheat-maize double cropping system (WW–SM) in the study area resulted in overdrafts of 258 mm yr − 1 , about 100 mm yr − 1 more than estimated groundwater recharge. Although six of eight simulated systems reduced overdrafts below the estimated recharge value of 150 mm yr − 1 , a triple-cropping system consisting of winter wheat/summer maize followed by fallow and early maize (WW–SM/F–EM) in two years appears to be the most viable alternative. Annual grain yield under the triple cropping system was only 13% less than that under the current WW–SM double cropping system. Groundwater overdrafts under triple-cropping system were about equal to lateral recharge from the mountains, water brought in via the South-North Water Transfer (SNWT) project and water from other water-saving measures (e.g. plastic film mulching) in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in field management and climate will alter soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (SN) cycling in the coming decades. This study is to quantify the effects of various fertilisation strategies and climate change scenarios on crop yield, and soil C and N cycling by the end of this century. Data from a long-term experiment with a winter-wheat ( Triticum aestivium L.) and summer maize ( Zea mays L.) rotation in Northern China was used to calibrate and validate the SPACSYS model. Five fertiliser practices were used: control (CK); combined mineral nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK); NPK plus manure (NPKM); high application rate of NPK fertilisers plus manure (hNPKM) and NPK with straw incorporation (NPKS). Crop yields, and SOC and SN stocks by 2100 were predicted under four climate scenarios (Baseline, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP4.5). Results showed that the SPACSYS model can adequately simulate the dynamics of SOC and SN stocks and the yields of winter wheat and summer maize. An application of NPK plus manure or straw not only enhanced crop yield, but also substantially increased SOC and SN stocks. The predictions showed the positive effects of fertilisation and climate change on crop yields and SOC stocks compared with those under the baseline. However, SN stock under the RCP8.5 decreased by 3–14% by 2100 for various fertilisation strategies compared with that under the baseline. On the other hand, mineral fertiliser plus manure led to a higher soil respiration rate and nitrogen losses through leaching and surface runoff under all the climate scenarios. Therefore, application of mineral fertilisers plus manure could enhance crop productivity and sustain soil fertility but cause more carbon emitted to the atmosphere and nitrogen losses. More attention should be paid on optimising fertilisation in order to increase crop productivity while minimising environmental risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important agricultural production area in China. Crop production in the NCP is sensitive to changes in both climate and management practices. While previous studies showed a negative impact of climatic change on crop yield since 1980s, the confounding effects of climatic and agronomic factors have not been separately investigated. This paper used 25 years of crop data from three locations (Nanyang, Zhengzhou and Luancheng) across the NCP, together with daily weather data and crop modeling, to analyse the contribution of changes in climatic and agronomic factors to changes in grain yields of wheat and maize. The results showed that the changes in climate were not uniform across the NCP and during different crop growth stages. Warming mainly occurred during the vegetative (preflowering) growth stage of wheat and maize, while there was a cooling trend or no significant change in temperatures during the postflowering stage of wheat (spring) or maize (autumn). If varietal effects were excluded, warming during vegetative stages would lead to a reduction in the length of the growing period for both crops, generally leading to a negative impact on crop production. However, autonomous adoption of new crop varieties in the NCP was able to compensate the negative impact of climatic change. For both wheat and maize, the varietal changes helped stabilize the length of preflowering period against the shortening effect of warming and, together with the slightly reduced temperature in the postflowering period, extend the length of the grain-filling period. The combined effect led to increased wheat yield at Zhengzhou and Luancheng; increased maize yield at Nanyang and Luancheng; stabilized wheat yield at Nanyang, and a slight reduction in maize yield at Zhengzhou, compared with the yield change caused entirely by climatic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]