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Climate and land-use change are important factors in the hydrological process. Climatic and anthropic changes have played a crucial role in surface runoff changes. The objective of this research was to apply land-use change and future climate change to predict runoff change in the Pak Phanang River Basin. The Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model was used to predict the land-use change, while the climate data from 2025 to 2085 under RPC2.6, RPC4.5, and RPC8.5 were generated using the MarkSim model. Additionally, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) combined land-use change and the generated meteorological data to predict the runoff change in the study area. The results showed that the annual runoff in the area would increase in the upcoming year, which would affect the production of field crops in the lowland area. Therefore, a good water drainage system is required for the coming years. Since the runoff would be about 50% reduced in the middle and late 21st century, an agroforestry system is also suggested for water capturing and reducing soil evaporation. Moreover, the runoff change’s overall impact was related to GHG emissions. This finding will be useful for the authorities to determine policies and plans for climate change adaptation in the Malay Peninsula. Validerad;2022;Nivå 2;2022-07-26 (hanlid);Funder: Walailak University, Thailand (WU63245)

The Climate change is a global issue affecting different parts of our planet where we are living. However, the reasons of climate change and consequences differ at different parts too. In Iraq, including the Kurdistan Region, the reasons for the climate change are due to man-made and natural effects, where the rates of CO2 emission and those of other greenhouse gasses are increasing drastically, besides the global warming, decrease in the amount of water income in rivers and streams from Turkey and Iran, decrease of rain and snow fall, increase of population. All these have direct impact on the climate and accordingly the consequences are coming harsher and seriously effective on the daily life of the people. In this research, different man-made and natural effects, which directly affect the climate change are presented and described. Moreover, predictions and recommendations are given to decrease the consequences of the climate change in Iraq among them the status of awareness is one of the main reasons to climate change, besides the global warming. Godkänd;2022;Nivå 0;2022-06-20 (sofila);DOI för värdpublikation: 10.17406/GJHSS

The limited amount of freshwater is the most important challenge facing Egypt due to increasing population and climate change. The objective of this study was to investigate how climatic change affects the winter potato water footprint at the Nile Delta covering 10 governorates from 1990 to 2016. Winter potato evapotranspiration (ETC) was calculated based on daily climate variables of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, wind speed and relative humidity during the growing season (October–February). The Mann–Kendall test was applied to determine the trend of climatic variables, crop evapotranspiration and water footprint. The results showed that the highest precipitation values were registered in the northwest governorates (Alexandria followed by Kafr El-Sheikh). The potato water footprint decreased from 170 m3 ton−1 in 1990 to 120 m3 ton−1 in 2016. The blue-water footprint contributed more than 75% of the total; the remainder came from the green-water footprint. The findings from this research can help government and policy makers better understand the impact of climate change on potato crop yield and to enhance sustainable water management in Egypt’s major crop-producing regions to alleviate water scarcity. Validerad;2022;Nivå 2;2022-07-01 (joosat)

The present work analyzed the yield, water utilize efficiency and water prod-uctivity for carrot Crop under climate change effects. In this research, river water was used with irrigation ratios with drain water to irrigate the carrots (Daucus carota L.) crop during the winter growing season 2021-2022 in free field and utilizing furrow irrigation method with calculation the water use efficiency and water productivity to three sites. The study was conducted in the three sites in the Babil province in Town of Sadat-AlHindya reached 80 km from Baghdad city. Site 1 was used 33% drain water and 67% river water while site 2 was used 83% drain water and 17% river water but the site 3 was used 100% river water. The reduction of yield in site 1 was 17.3% and in site 2 was 75%. The reducing of WUE in site 1 was 23% and in site 2 was 77%. The decrease of WP in site 1 was 22.98% and in site 2 was 82.28%. The value of water stress coefficient (Ks) because irrigation by water salanity and soil salanty was 0.83, 0.78 and 0.92 in site 1, site 2 and site 3, respectively, water salanity and soil salanty reduction in productivity by 9%, 14% and 7% in production of site 1, site 2 and site 3, respectively in every irrigating. Validerad;2022;Nivå 1;2022-10-25 (hanlid)

Erbil city is constructed in a flat plain with moderate gradient increasing northwards, the plain is dissected by tens of ephemeral wadis. The maximum elevation in the high lands NE of Erbil city is 1062 m (a.s.l.), whereas the elevation of the center of Erbil city is 420 m (a.s.l.). The average gradient from the highest part to the center of the city is 2.15%, increasing towards northeast to reach 4.79%. The mean annual rainfall is 365 mm, while the average monthly rainfall is about 24.42 mm. The site of the city is mainly covered by alluvial fan sediments. Towards northeast, however, the exposures of the Bia Hassan Formation, which consists of alternation of conglomerate and claystone cover considerable areas (82 km2) and form the high lands NE of Erbil city. The exposed rocks are thick claystone alternating with coarse conglomerate. Two very heavy torrential rain events have caused flash floods in Erbil city on 30th October and 17th December 2021. The rainfall intensities were 52 mm/day and 60 mm/day, respectively, causing destructive floods. The most affected areas were Zirin (north of Erbil) and Dara Too (northeast of Erbil), respectively, with very heavy property damages and tens of fatalities. The main reasons for the floods were the partially constructed embankments of the 150 m ring-road, and the urban development within large and wide drainage basins. Different climate data were used for the purpose of this article, with field checks. Godkänd;2023;Nivå 0;2023-01-02 (johcin)

A noticeable increase in drought frequency and severity has been observed across the globe due to climate change, which attracted scientists in development of drought prediction models for mitigation of impacts. Droughts are usually monitored using drought indices (DIs), most of which are probabilistic and therefore, highly stochastic and non-linear. The current research investigated the capability of different versions of relatively well-explored machine learning (ML) models including random forest (RF), minimum probability machine regression (MPMR), M5 Tree (M5tree), extreme learning machine (ELM) and online sequential-ELM (OSELM) in predicting the most widely used DI known as standardized precipitation index (SPI) at multiple month horizons (i.e., 1, 3, 6 and 12). Models were developed using monthly rainfall data for the period of 1949–2013 at four meteorological stations namely, Barisal, Bogra, Faridpur and Mymensingh, each representing a geographical region of Bangladesh which frequently experiences droughts. The model inputs were decided based on correlation statistics and the prediction capability was evaluated using several statistical metrics including mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R), Willmott’s Index of agreement (WI), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and Legates and McCabe Index (LM). The results revealed that the proposed models are reliable and robust in predicting droughts in the region. Comparison of the models revealed ELM as the best model in forecasting droughts with minimal RMSE in the range of 0.07–0.85, 0.08–0.76, 0.062–0.80 and 0.042–0.605 for Barisal, Bogra, Faridpur and Mymensingh, respectively for all the SPI scales except one-month SPI for which the RF showed the best performance with minimal RMSE of 0.57, 0.45, 0.59 and 0.42, respectively. Validerad;2021;Nivå 2;2021-02-16 (alebob)

A recent trend of sea level shows constant rising. Sea level rise has caused asignificant risk to seaside areas. This study examines the potential effect ofclimate change and rising sea levels on coastal regions and evaluates the susceptibilityof coastal areas in Inverloch, Melbourne Australia. A model ofHypothetically Flooded Zones, based on LiDAR data was built, processed andmanipulated in ArcGIS. Through applying this model, the effect of rising sealevel on the infrastructures such as buildings, dwellings, roads, land use andthe population was assessed. Elevation data sets of varying resolution and accuracyhave been processed to show the improved quality of LiDAR datacontributes to a more precise delineation of flood-prone coastal lands. Afterthe susceptible areas to sea level rise were delineated, the worst-case scenariowas calculated (based on the increase in sea level projected for 2100) and itwould impacts about 0.86% of roads, 221 of different building infrastructures.This method can be used in other areas to protect the coasts due to rapidchanges caused by climate change. Validerad;2021;Nivå 1;2021-01-18 (alebob)

Decreases in climatic water availability (CWA) and increases in crop water demand (CWD) in the background of climate change are a major concern in arid regions because of less water availability and higher irrigation requirements for crop production. Assessment of the spatiotemporal changes in CWA and CWD is important for the adaptation of irrigated agriculture to climate change for such regions. The recent changes in CWA and CWD during growing seasons of major crops have been assessed for Iraq where rapid changes in climate have been noticed in recent decades. Gridded precipitation of the global precipitation climatology center (GPCC) and gridded temperature of the climate research unit (CRU) having a spatial resolution of 0.5&deg, were used for the estimation of CWA and CWD using simple water balance equations. The Mann&ndash, Kendall (MK) test and one of its modified versions which can consider long-term persistence in time series, were used to estimate trends in CWA for the period 1961&ndash, 2013. In addition, the changes in CWD between early (1961&ndash, 1990) and late (1984&ndash, 2013) periods were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank test. The results revealed a deficit in water in all the seasons in most of the country while a surplus in the northern highlands in all the seasons except summer was observed. A significant reduction in the annual amount of CWA at a rate of &minus, 1 to &minus, 13 mm/year was observed at 0.5 level of significance in most of Iraq except in the north. Decreasing trends in CWA in spring (&minus, 0.4 to &minus, 1.8 mm/year), summer (&minus, 5.0 to &minus, 11 mm/year) and autumn (0.3 to &minus, 0.6 mm/year), and almost no change in winter was observed. The CWA during the growing season of summer crop (millet and sorghum) was found to decrease significantly in most of Iraq except in the north. The comparison of CWD revealed an increase in agricultural water needs in the late period (1984&ndash, 2013) compared to the early period (1961&ndash, 1990) by 1.0&ndash, 8.0, 1.0&ndash, 14, 15&ndash, 30, 14&ndash, 27 and 0.0&ndash, 10 mm for wheat, barley, millet, sorghum and potato, respectively. The highest increase in CWD was found in April, October, June, June and April for wheat, barley, millet, sorghum and potato, respectively.

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a basic element for hydrological designing and agricultural water resources management. The FAO56 recommended Penman–Monteith (FAO56-PM) formula recognized worldwide as the robust and standard model for calculating ETo. However, the use of the FAO56-PM model is restricted in some data-scarce regions like Bangladesh. Therefore, it is imperative to find an optimal alternative for estimating ETo against FAO56-PM model. This study comprehensively compared the performance of 13 empirical models (Hargreaves–Samani, HargreavesM1, Hargreaves M2, Berti, WMO, Abtew, Irmak 1, Irmak 2, Makkink, Priestley-Taylor, Jensen–Haise, Tabari and Turc) by using statistical criteria for 38-years dataset from 1980 to 2017 in Bangladesh. The radiation-based model proposed by Abtew (ETo,6) was selected as an optimal alternative in all the sub-regions and whole Bangladesh against FAO56-PM model owing to its high accuracy, reliability in outlining substantial spatiotemporal variations of ETo, with very well linearly correlation with the FAO56-PM and the least errors. The importance degree analysis of 13 models based on the random forest (RF) also depicted that Abtew (ETo,6) is the most reliable and robust model for ETo computation in different sub-regions. Validation of the optimal alternative produced the largest correlation coefficient of 0.989 between ETo,s and ETo,6 and confirmed that Abtew (ETo,6) is the best suitable method for ETo calculation in Bangladesh. Validerad;2020;Nivå 2;2020-11-24 (alebob)

Overtopping is one of the most serious modes of failures for all dams causing great numbers of human fatalities and material damages. Statistics show that overtopping failures are the highest, especially for embankment dams. The main reason for this is the erroneous prediction of the inflow design discharge, which has resulted from lack of realistic flow data and imperfect hydrological procedures. Failure in most cases occurs when the inflow exceeds the spillway design capacity, but to a lesser extent from the buildup of very high wave setup and runs up. This has led to active efforts in upgrading dams for such occurrences, by either upgrading spillways, adding auxiliary spillways, increasing freeboard by either heightening the dams or the parapet walls on the crest. Advancement in predicting the safe inflow discharges are also made by adopting such procedures as the calculation of the Probable maximum flood based on predicting the Maximum Probable Precipitation or using statistical methods by treating long records of available flow data. Recently, another challenge has come up facing dam owners and builders who are represented by the climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle; this has put a new responsibility to the governments to issue new regulations and plans to mitigate these impacts reducing failure possibilities and improve dam safety against overtopping. Validerad;2020;Nivå 1;2020-06-23 (alebob)

Sea Level Rise (SLR) above the Mean Sea Level (MSL) is more likely to cause a significant risk to the coastal regions. This research explores the potential impact of sea level rise, due to climate change, on coastal areas. It examines the impact of sea level rise on Basrah city and adjacent cities in Iraq. A digital elevation model (DEM) was used to create a model of Potentially Inundated Areas, manipulated and processed in Geographical Information System version 10.7 (ArcGIS 10.7). Through this model, the impact of sea level rise was assessed on the surface area. After the susceptible areas were delineated, it was estimated that at worst case scenario of 5 m sea level rise will impact Basrah city by losing 38 percent of its total surface area. Godkänd;2021;Nivå 0;2021-01-01 (johcin)

Climate change is affecting the hydrological cycle all over the World. The effect on arid and semi-arid regions is relatively more. The Middle East and North Africa region is one of the biggest hyper-arid, semi-arid and arid zones in the world where the long-term average precipitation does not exceed 166mm per year. The Tigris and Euphrates basins are located within the northern part of the Middle East. Future projections indicate the considerable reduction in water resources as a result of drought and population growth. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is responsible for the change in climate over the Tigris and Euphrates basins. This is causing a decrease in rainfall and a consequence decrease in the flow of the rivers. In addition, the temperature is increasing. All these variables are causing sea level rise, increasing dust storms and deletion of groundwater resources. It is believed that quick actions are required to minimize the effect of climate change. This includes prudent water resources planning and good regional cooperation. Validerad;2020;Nivå 1;2019-12-18 (johcin)

Marshes represent a unique ecosystem covering a large area of southern Iraq. In a major environmental disaster, the marshes of Iraq were drained, especially during the 1990s. Since then, droughts and the decrease in water imports from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers from Turkey and Iran have prevented them from regaining their former extent. The aim of this research is to extract the values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for the period 1977&ndash, 2017 from Landsat 2 MSS (multispectral scanner), Landsat 8 OLI (operational land imager) and Sentinel 2 MSI (multi-spectral imaging mission) satellite images and use supervised classification to quantify land and water cover change. The results from the two satellites (Landsat 2 and Landsat 8) are compared with Sentinel 2 to determine the best tool for detecting changes in land and water cover. We also assess the potential impacts of climate change through the study of the annual average maximum temperature and precipitation in different areas in the marshes for the period 1981&ndash, 2016. The NDVI analysis and image classification showed the degradation of vegetation and water bodies in the marshes, as vast areas of natural vegetation and agricultural lands disappeared and were replaced with barren areas. The marshes were influenced by climatic change, including rising temperature and the diminishing amount of precipitation during 1981&ndash, 2016.

The Tigris River is one of the longest rivers in western Asia. Its length is about 1800 km. It drains a catchment area of 473103 km2 divided in 4 countries (Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq). About 23 million people live within this catchment. The flow of the River Tigris is decreasing with time due to the construction of dams and climate change. The discharge of the Tigris River at Baghdad was 1,207 m3/s for the period 1931-1960 and since 2000 onward it is 522m3/s. Riparian countries (mainly Iraq and Iran) are facing water shortage problems. This requires prudent regional and national cooperation and management to overcome this problem. Validerad;2018;Nivå 1;2018-04-27 (andbra)

Iraq as a country is now suffering from Climate Change Impacts in similar or even worse ways than many other countries of the world. The manifestations of these climate changes are being felt in global warming, changes to weather driving elements and sea level rise. Increasing temperatures, declining precipitation rates and changed distribution patterns together with increasing evaporation are causing water stress in Iraq. However, they trigger other changes in a sort of chain reaction; such as droughts, desertification and sand storms. Iraq is not even safe from the consequences of sea level rise where the southern part of the Tigris- Euphrates delta is threatened by inundation and Iraq’s ports and sea coast line are endangered by such projected rise. So far the agricultural sector in Iraq has been hit very badly by the reduced water availability for arable lands; whether rain fed lands as in the northern part, or irrigated lands using the declining discharges of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers as in the southern and middle parts. These discharges have already been additionally strained by the unfair sharing practiced by Turkey from which most of the two rivers’ water resources originate. The present negative climate change trends seem to be continuing in the future as it is obvious from all projections and studies being performed so far. Loss of cultivable land to desertification, recurrent droughts and sand storms and declining agriculture are the pattern of change in Iraq’s already fragile environment; and this will result inevitably in much more distress for the population in the future and will lead to social unrest. These will add to the great pressures facing all future governments unless the government takes protective planning and solutions. Validerad;2018;Nivå 1;2018-04-27 (rokbeg)

Global warming is hitting all parts of the world for the last fifty years due to Global Climate Change and it is expected to continue in the future in an increasing trend unless the present mode of CO2 emission is limited or reversed. This is manifested in the rising temperature over land and the changes induced in the general weather circulation patterns over land and oceans. The Tigris River catchment as most of other parts in the world is suffering from increased temperatures and reduced precipitation contributing to reduced water resources elements all over it and reduction of the river stream flow itself. Studies using the soil and water assessment tool SWAT were performed on the five Tigris River tributaries basins in Iraq in order to assess these impacts. This paper summarizes the results of those studies, the characteristics of each of the five basins, and illustrates the application of SWAT as a tool for future predictions. Moreover, it explains in more details the work done on one of the basins as an example, summarizes the results of the five studies and then analyzes these results and discusses the expected future outcomes. The final conclusion which can be drawn is that severe shortage in all water resources elements will occur over the five basins and the Tigris River stream flow will suffer a considerable decline. This situation demands that policy makers in Iraq should take steps immediately to improve water and soil management practices to try and reduce as much as possible the expected damage that will hit all water using sectors. Validerad;2018;Nivå 1;2018-04-30 (andbra)

Iraq is facing a serious water shortage problem now, which has not been experienced before. This is because of the reduction of flow of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers which is due to the implementation of hydrological projects within the upstream part of the catchment and climate change. Mismanagement of water resources within Iraq made the problem graver. It is believed that serious discussion with all riparian countries to reach an agreement to share the water of the two rivers and their tributaries is desperately needed. In addition, a prudent scientific strategy should be implemented and put into practice to overcome this problem in Iraq. In addition, the key positions within the Iraqi Ministry of Water Resources should be given to people having real experience in the water resources sector to ensure discreet and prudent management of the problem. Validerad;2018;Nivå 1;2018-06-12 (andbra)

Iraq is suffering from water scarcity, and future predictions indicate that it could get worse due to changing climate. Arguably, climate change is one of the greatest challenges onfronting this region it could have significant adverse effects on water resources and hence the environment and economy, particularly in the agricultural sector. This study considers possible adaptation and mitigation measures that could be undertaken in response to climate change. To overcome this problem,adaptation measures at farm and government level were conferred. Farm-level adaptation comprises adopting crop modification, soil conservation, irrigation, changing crop calendar and planting of trees. The government role is to ensure success of these adaptation measures. The government should get involved and support the farmers financially and technologically. Validerad;2018;Nivå 1;2018-05-18 (andbra)

Climate Change which results from global warming is affecting the Tigris and Euphrates River basins in similar ways to all other parts of the Middle East and the East Mediterranean region. This contains also what is historically known as the “Fertile Crescent”, which is threatened in the same way as the other parts and may disappear altogether. The climate change is manifested in increased temperatures, reduced precipitation in addition to erratic weather patterns and decreased annual stream flow of the two rivers. These phenomena have been markedly noticed during the last decades of the last century. Studies show that these changes are linked also to the variations of North Atlantic Pressure Oscillation (NAO) induced by Global Climate Change. Modeling studies on the future trends, in trying to define the magnitude of the changes to be anticipated, reveal clearly that these negative impacts are continuous in the future. But, the widely ranging projections and interpretations of different sources depict an uncertain future for the basin’s climatic conditions and indicate theneed for further modeling studies to reach more definitive conclusions. These studies show however, a drastic decline of the Euphrates and Tigris water resources at the end of this century by something like (30 to 70) %; as compared to their resources in the last three decades of the previous century. The wide variations in the projections emphasize the need of further future work on this matter. All in all, these studies should bring alarm to all responsible governments in the region to resort to long range planning by adopting rational policies in soils and water resources management to mitigate the adverse impacts that could hit human societies in these events. Validerad;2018;Nivå 1;2018-04-30(andbra)

In this paper impact of climate change on precipitation in the arid environment of Iraq is examined. LARS-WG weather generator was applied to 5 representative regions to model current and future precipitation under climate change. Seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) have been employed to account for any uncertainty on future projection for three selected periods, 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099. Performance of LARS-WG in each site was first evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test for fitting wet/dry days in each site, as well as comparison of the mean and standard deviation between the observed and simulated precipitation. The developed LARS-WG models were found to perform well and skilful in simulating precipitation in the arid regions of Iraq as evidenced by the tests carried and the comparison made. The precipitation models were then used to obtain future projections for precipitation using the IPCC scenario SRES A2. Future precipitation results show that most of the Iraq regions are projected to suffer a reduction in annual mean precipitation, especially by the end of the 21st century, while on a seasonal basis most of the regions are anticipated to be wetter in autumn and winter. Validerad; 2017; Nivå 1; 2017-02-15 (andbra)

The Greater Zab and Lesser Zab are the major tributaries of Tigris River contributing the largest flow volumes into the river. The impacts of climate change on water resources in these basins have not been well addressed. To gain a better understanding of the effects of climate change on water resources of the study area in near future (2049-2069) as well as in distant future (2080-2099), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied. The model was first calibrated for the period from 1979 to 2004 to test its suitability in describing the hydrological processes in the basins. The SWAT model showed a good performance in simulating streamflow. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. Six general circulation models (GCMs) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 for periods of 2049-2069 and 2080-2099 were used to project the climate change impacts on these basins. The results demonstrated a significant decline in water resources availability in the future., {"references":["H. Tabari, and P. Willems, 2016. Daily Precipitation Extremes in Iran: Decadal Anomalies and Possible Drivers. Journal of American Water Resources Association 52 (2): 541-599, DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12403.","M. A. Mimikou, E. Baltas, E. Varanou, and K. Pantazis, 2000. Regional Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources Quantity and Quality Indicators. Journal of Hydrology 234(1): 95-109, DOI:10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00244-4.","J. M. Winter and E. A. B. Eltahir, 2012. Modeling the Hydroclimatology of the Midwestern United States. Part 1: Current Climate. 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An analysis of historical data of Fitzroy River, which lies in the east coast of Australia, reveals that there is an increasing trend in extreme floods and droughts apparently attributable to increased variability of blue and green waters which could be due to climate change. In order to get a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the study area for near future as well as distant future, SWAT (soil and water assessment tool) model was applied. The model is first tested for its suitability in capturing the basin characteristics with available data, and then, forecasts from six GCMs (general circulation model) with about half-a-century lead time to 2046~2064 and about one-century lead time to 2080~2100 are incorporated to evaluate the impacts of climate change under three marker emission scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. The results showed worsening water resources regime into the future. Validerad; 2017; Nivå 1; 2017-03-13 (andbra)