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Since 1990, global forest area has been reducing; tropical forests have suffered from different anthropogenic and natural factors that account for forest loss. Tropical deforestation is the second driver of anthropogenic emissions; increasing demand and investments in tropical forests drive these emissions. These forests attract significant foreign direct investments, but the effects of these investments on carbon emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry are not well enshrined in the literature for the countries under study. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of foreign direct investments on carbon emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry amongst 30 tropical forest countries from 1996 to 2019. The sampled countries were disaggregated by tropical blocs: Amazon, Congo basin, Australasia, and Southeast Asia, and by income levels; low-income, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income. The findings reveal a U-shape structure of the impact of FDI on carbon emissions from LULUCF within Congo basin and Amazon countries; at higher levels of FDI, emissions from LULUCF will increase while Australasia and Southeast Asian countries show an inverted U-shape impact, thus at higher levels of FDI, there will be a negative and significant impact on carbon emissions from LULUCF. The income levels reveal an inverted U-shape for low-income and high-income countries and a U-shape for upper-middle-income countries; the impact for lower-middle-income countries is not significant. Overall, for the whole sample, the impact depicts a U-shape. This paper proposes high-level development of environmental conditions for FDI for different sectors that align with country and regional green growth plans. Enhancing national and regional governance systems to enforce decisions and fight corruption effectively can significantly promote green FDI for green growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food system resilience to climate change is uniquely imperative for bringing Sustainable Development Goals within reach and leaving no one behind. Food systems in East and Southeast Asia are interacting with planetary boundaries and are adversely affected by extreme weather-related events. A practical question for East and Southeast Asian stakeholders is how to foster climateresilient food systems in the face of lingering food system vulnerabilities and policy gaps. This paper reviews food system vulnerabilities and policy responses to climate change. In the policy-based review, this paper compares the economy-wide and agriculture-specific targets of low-carbon development across East and Southeast Asia. With China and member states of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations as case studies, multilevel policies in building and financing climate-resilient food systems are further synthesized. The findings confirm significant differences in agriculture-specific emission goals and public financing supports across East and Southeast Asian nations. With an objective to break practical barriers and finance climate-resilient food systems for the future, this paper recommends defining agriculture-specific greenhouse gas emission goals, reorienting the public finance scheme and enhancing mechanisms for the synergy of public and private resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Secondary cities are home to most of the world's urban populations vulnerable to climate change, yet researchers and policymakers have devoted less attention to them than large and megacities. To help address this gap, this paper explores the relationship between incomplete decentralized governance, climate change, and urban resilience. It does through the case studies of secondary cities of Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. Secondary cities are of importance because they are the fastest growing cities in the Global South but also because they have weaker capacity to address climate risks. Through these case studies, the paper draws comparisons between the different cases to look at the linkages between decentralization and urban resilience in secondary cities. Overall, it argues that climate governance, due to the retention of power and resources by central bureaucrats along with fragmented governance structures, and misaligned incentive structures which prioritize economic growth over climate protection have undermined resilience building and contributed to the uneven distribution of climate risks in these cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are integral to efforts to keep global warming below 2°C in accordance with the United Nations' 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Yet the transboundary governance dimensions of NbS remain unclear and largely undocumented. In Southeast Asia, NbS have emphasised the conservation and/ or sustainable commodification of carbon sinks found in terrestrial and mangrove forests, seagrass meadows, peatlands and agricultural soils. Mostly project-driven and fixed-term, these "solutions" have often failed to meet their social and ecological objectives. Increasingly, they have added to cross-border problems of: (1) displaced carbon emissions; and (2) economic migration and societal dispossession. This perspective paper delineates a transboundary governance research agenda to mitigate these trade-offs and enhance the co-benefits of NbS in carbon sinks. Building on NbS literature, it identifies cross-sector, multi-scalar and interdisciplinary pathways to improve transboundary cooperation, inclusion and equity in carbon sink governance in varying Southeast Asian contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC predicts that hot seasons will get even hotter due to global climate change. There exists a critical dependence of human metabolic processes on temperature. Changes in thermal balance therefore, have an adverse effect on health because they raise body temperature, cause excessive sweating, and accelerate the rate of dehydration. Different nations and professional groups use different techniques to measure heat strain. This paper aims to review previous research conducted in the area of heat strain due to heat exposure among workers in Southeast Asia and also to profile mitigation strategies in North East India. Studies conducted between the years 2011 to 2023 in the evaluation of the health impacts of occupational heat stress were searched systematically using several sources of databases like PubMed, Google Scholar, Science Direct, Web of Science, Scopus, etc. It was noted that a greater proportion of previous research on evaluating physiological effects was carried out in controlled environments as opposed to real-world field settings. While such studies give us valuable insights into the relationship, applying the same methodology in the workplace may not be feasible. In India, very few research has been carried out on workplace heat stress, and even fewer have been done in North East India using physiological indicators. North East India is also affected by global climate change leading top more hotter days than before. The region of Northeast India, particularly Guwahati (Assam), has recently seen extreme heat waves during the sweltering summer months. With less literature available in this geographical location, studies with actual field-based settings are much needed to understand the occupational health impacts in this region. This review can formulate a suitable methodology for assessing the health impacts in working environment. This can also help the local health professionals to recognize the heat strain parameters that are acceptable worldwide, and use as pertinent indicators to scrutinize worker's health and develop preventive agendas as climate change advances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how global trade shapes and intensifies disasters. Juxtaposing three basic, everyday consumer goods – a t‐shirt, a brick, and a tea bag – with disasters manifesting in their respective global supply chains, it highlights how climate change, local environmental degradation, and carbon emissions are dynamically shaped by consumption. Analysis of data collected in South and Southeast Asia reveals that local environmental degradation linked to international trade interacts with global climate change and the policies intended to mitigate it, influencing how and where disasters manifest. Underpinning this analysis is the physical and conceptual presence of the container. With more and more of the natural environment packaged and redistributed for global trade, the container thinking that underpins these logistics is increasingly imbricated in environmental processes. Indeed, as this paper aims to show, the container logic that frames analysis of these processes – linked to and drawn from the logistics of global trade – serves as both obfuscator and actor in the global landscape of environmental risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A process-based ecosystem model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM), was applied to evaluate the effects of cropland expansion on terrestrial carbon fluxes and pools in South and Southeast Asia in the 20th century. The results indicated that cropland expansion in both regions has resulted in a release of 18.26 PgC into the atmosphere in the study period. Of this amount, approximately 23% (4.19 Pg C) was released from South Asia and 77% (14.07 Pg C) from Southeast Asia. More land area was converted to cropland but less carbon was emitted in South Asia than in Southeast Asia, where forest biomass and soil carbon are significantly higher. Carbon losses in vegetation, soil organic matter, and litter carbon pools accounted for 15.09, 2.01, and 1.60 PgC, respectively. Significant decreases in vegetation carbon occurred across most regions of Southeast Asia due to continuous cropland expansion and depletion of natural forests. Our study also indicated that it is important to take into account the land use legacy effect when evaluating the contemporary carbon balance in terrestrial ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing global fire regimes including extended fire seasons due to climate change may increase the co-occurrence of high-impact fires that overwhelm national fire suppression capacities. These shifts increase the demand for international resource sharing to supplement national fire suppression efforts. In this paper, we explore the development and evaluate the effectiveness of international resource sharing arrangements of three regions: (1) The United States, Canada, and Australia ("Big Three"); (2) Europe; and (3) Southeast Asia by conducting a literature review of gray and peer- reviewed literature in combination with key informant interviews. For the "Big Three" and Europe, international resource sharing is perceived as necessary, effective, and continuously improving. Converging fire management processes and training and developing more effective administrative procedures facilitate these relationships. In Southeast Asia, political tensions and limited firefighting capacities have hampered effective cooperation. Formalized agreements of country-to-country support for fire management are nascent and evolving, and there is evidence that demand for expanding and improving these partnerships is increasing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) heralds the establishment of the large-scale East Asian summer monsoon and the western North Pacific summer monsoon, as well as the beginning of the major rainy season. The occurrence of an early or late SCSSM onset is an important indicator for the summertime climate anomalies over East and Southeast Asia. Therefore, the onset of the SCSSM has received extensive research attention, and has been one of the key foci of monsoon research in recent decades. This paper reviews the multi-scale climate variations (from interdecadal to synoptic scales) and mechanisms of the SCSSM onset, with special attention paid to the progress in the past five years. On the interdecadal timescale, the SCSSM onset underwent a significant advancement in the mid-to-late 1990s, which may have been related to the background condition of the Pacific Ocean. On the interannual timescale, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is considered to be the most critical factor controlling the variability of the SCSSM onset. However, the linkage between ENSO and the SCSSM onset has become much weaker and insignificant in recent years. The intraseasonal oscillations (including the 30–60-day oscillation and quasi-biweekly oscillation) are important modulators of the SCSSM onset. The transition from an inactive phase to an active phase may be more worthy of attention than the phase itself. There appear to be close interactions between the SCSSM onset and synoptic-scale systems like tropical cyclones (TCs). TCs are important triggers for the SCSSM onset, while in return the SCSSM onset provides a favorable background condition for the formation and development of TCs. In addition, this paper also reviews a series of recent works on the withdrawal of the SCSSM. Finally, to close the paper, some important scientific issues worthy of further investigation are put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Study of the implications of Asian tourism for climate change is critical to fulfilling the terms of the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow (COP26) and reaching the Sustainable Development Goals. Research has only recently begun to cover these topics. This paper examines climate risks, adaptation response, carbon emission, and mitigation in Asian tourism by reviewing the state-of-the-art and identifying gaps in previous research and future directions. More work has been done on East, Southeast, and South Asia than on Central, West, and North Asia, but great differences exist among needed research topics in these subregions. While some progress has been made on impact assessments of climate change and carbon emissions estimations, analysis and action remain mismatched. Often, one tourism sector is analyzed in isolation and only general suggestions are given for climate change adaptation and mitigation. This therefore highlights research that can facilitate the integrated analysis of climate change to inform policymakers and the public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, agrarian transformations in Southeast Asia have resulted in significant environmental and social change, yet insufficient attention has focused on the particular pathways by which these changes have increased vulnerability to climate change. In particular, climate precarity, a situation in which class, social, labour and/or gender inequities amplify negative impacts from climate change, has been on the rise for many smallholders. Using case studies in Vietnam of changes to swidden agriculture in upland areas and the loss of deepwater rice systems in the Mekong Delta lowlands, the paper examines social differentiation and ecological outcomes of these processes and how they have increased climate precarity, particularly for poor households and women. Based on longitudinal fieldwork in affected regions, we identify key changes contributing to climate precarity as farming systems intensify. In particular, loss of flexibility in farmer decision‐making, loss of voluntary engagement with markets, and declining access to social capital and entitlements have increased risks for households and reduced adaptation options. Suggestions are made to more directly address these elements in future agricultural and climate policies, rather than current approaches to climate adaptation that often promote even more intensification of agriculture, which runs the risk of exacerbating precarity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More reliable estimates of carbon (C) stock within forest ecosystems and C emission induced by deforestation are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of emissions on climate change. A process-based terrestrial biogeochemical model (VISIT) was applied to tropical primary forests of two types (a seasonal dry forest in Thailand and a rain-forest in Malaysia) and one agro-forest (an oil palm plantation in Malaysia) to estimate the C budget of tropical ecosystems, including the impacts of land-use conversion, in Southeast Asia. Observations and VISIT model simulations indicated that the primary forests had high photosynthetic uptake: gross primary production was estimated at 31.5-35.5 tCha-1 yr-1. In the VISIT model simulation, the rainforest had a higher total C stock (plant biomass and soil organic matter, 301.5 tCha-1) than that in the seasonal dry forest (266.5 tCha-1) in 2008. The VISIT model appropriately captured the impacts of disturbances such as deforestation and land-use conversions on the C budget. Results of sensitivity analysis implied that the ratio of remaining residual debris was a key parameter determining the soil C budget after deforestation events. The C stock of the oil palm plantation was about 46% of the rainforest's C at 30 yr following initiation of the plantation, when the ratio of remaining residual debris was assumed to be about 33%. These results show that adequate forest management is important for reducing C emission from soil and C budget of each ecosystem must be evaluated over a long term using both the model simulations and observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the extreme dependence of agriculture on weather conditions, this paper analyses the effect of climatic variations on this economic sector, by considering both a huge data set and a flexible spatiotemporal model specification. In particular, we study the response of N‐fertilizer application to abnormal weather conditions, while accounting for other relevant control variables. The data set consists of gridded data spanning over 21 years (1993–2013), while the methodological strategy makes use of a spatial dynamic panel data (SDPD) model that accounts for both space and time fixed effects, besides dealing with both space and time dependences. Time‐invariant short‐ and long‐term effects, as well as time‐varying marginal effects are also properly defined, revealing interesting results on the impact of both GDP and weather conditions on fertilizer utilizations. The analysis considers four macroregions—Europe, South America, Southeast Asia and Africa—to allow for comparisons among different socio‐economic societies. In addition to finding both spatial (in the form of knowledge spillover effects) and temporal dependences as well as a good support for the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve for fertilizer application, the paper shows peculiar responses of N‐fertilization to deviations from normal weather conditions of moisture for each selected region, calling for ad hoc policy interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southeast Asia’s coastal communities are the frontliners of climate change impacts. Traditional livelihoods and fish landings are already declining due to changes in sea temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme weather. A human security lens should be used to examine the consequences of climate change impacts on the marginalised communities that suffer directly from it. This study adapts a 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vulnerability assessment for human and food security and assessment of potential conflicts, merging it with a tool to assess community resilience and adaptability to threats, as a framework to analyse the predicament of Malaysia’s artisanal fishermen. A case study based on 16 years of ethnographic and participant observation in a fishing community that depends on the maritime boundary between Malaysia and Singapore is used to illustrate the above. This paper demonstrates how local knowledge and experience in overcoming change should be used for better climate change adaptation policies and implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The planet is predicted to become drier because of accelerating global warming, increasing great challenges to the survival of terrestrial species. However, the understanding of when and where increasing aridity in the future will lead to abrupt biodiversity loss is still limited. Here, we predicted the spatiotemporal dynamics of future vertebrate biodiversity loss driven by increasing aridity at the assemblage scale under the scenario framework of the shared socio‐economic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results show that, under the high‐emissions scenario of SSP5‐8.5, more than 24.19% of terrestrial assemblages are projected to have at least one vertebrate species exposed to unprecedented aridity conditions by 2100, leading to 55.29% of terrestrial vertebrate species experiencing local habitat loss. In addition, the mean magnitude of global exposure is expected to reach 17.47% by 2100. Within these assemblages, most species will be simultaneously exposed to unprecedented aridity conditions, with an average exposure abruptness of 78.00%, most of which will occur intensively after 2050. If we manage to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the SSP1‐2.6 (SSP2‐4.5) scenario, the magnitude of exposure can significantly decrease to 7.35% (10.56%), and the onset of exposure can be delayed by 43 (30) years, averaging approximately 30% (14%) of vertebrate species from local habitat loss. Our findings also highlight that the concurrent extremes of increasing aridity and rising temperature in Southeast Asia and Amazon rainforests may amplify exposure risks, which can motivate decision‐makers to respond early and effectively to mitigate abrupt ecological disruption. Plain Language Summary: The global land surface is predicted to become more drier in the future due to the accelerating global warming, which places great challenges on the survival of terrestrial species. In this paper, we predicted the future spatiotemporal dynamics of biodiversity loss of vertebrate species as a result of the increase in aridity, trying to understand when and where the increasing aridity will cause biodiversity loss intensively and lead to abrupt ecological disruption. We found that, under the high‐emissions scenario (∼4.4°C global temperature rise), more than 24.19% of global terrestrial assemblages are projected to have at least one vertebrate species exposed to aridity condition exceeding their niche, leading to the consequence that 55.29% of species will experience habitat loss. The exposure events within most terrestrial assemblages will occur simultaneously after 2050. If we manage to reduce emissions to the low (intermediate)‐emissions scenario (∼1.8°C and 2.7°C global temperature rise), the onset of exposure can be delay by 43 (30) years. Our findings also highlight that the concurrent extremes of increasing aridity and rising temperature in Southeast Asia and Amazon rainforests may amplify exposure risks, which can motivate decision‐makers to respond early to mitigate abrupt ecological disruption. Key Points: We predicted and highlighted the risk of abrupt biodiversity loss in terrestrial vertebrate species driven by increasing aridityMore than 24% of terrestrial assemblages will be exposed to unprecedented aridity, and 55.29% of species will experience local habitat lossConcurrent extremes of increasing aridity and rising temperature in Southeast Asia and Amazon rainforests may amplify exposure risks [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the existing reforestation and forest conservation policies and strategies in Southeast Asia and how they have impacted people's lives. Southeast Asia contains 11 countries and is home to 20% of the world's species. Unfortunately, the region has been practising deforestation at an alarming rate. The main cause of deforestation in the region is the creation of land for agriculture, with forest fires and the growing demand for timber also contributing. As a result, the region has lost 376,000 km2 of forest in the last 30 years. Parts of the region have been involved in international efforts to protect forests, such as the 2016 Paris Agreement. However, some of these policies have not made much difference because most countries are not willing to support the necessary strategies. From the study findings, the main strength of the existing polices and strategies is that they are being amended to suit different changes in demographics and the practical needs of the sector. The sector has been able to shift from the initial state forestry management to making forests a multi-sectoral economic development agent. On the other hand, there are few polices at the national level that ensure every citizen participates in tree planting and that they understand the need to stop deforestation. In addition, many countries in the region are less willing to join the international communities in fighting climate change; that is, they do not agree with international partnerships like the Pris Climate Change Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tonle Sap Lake (TSL), located in southwestern Mekong Basin, is the largest freshwater lake in Southeast Asia. The water-level regime of the TSL has been changing over the last few decades due to the rapid development of water infrastructures and climate change in the Mekong Basin. This paper makes efforts to quantify the water-level regime alterations of the TSL by analyzing the pre- and post-1991 historical data of daily water levels from Kompong Luong Station. The method of modified indicators of hydrologic alteration was utilized, and the TSL's hydrological behavior was explored further by focusing on the redistribution of hydrology and unfavorable disturbances. The results reveal that the coefficients of variation of most indicators in recent years increase compared with the preimpact years from 1960 to 1990. This demonstrates that the Mekong Basin and TSL are experiencing an increasingly unstable and varied hydrological cycle, which is more susceptible to interference with increased frequency and degree. Moreover, the system may have suffered more unfavorable human interference in dry years and in the dry season. It is expected that the findings in this paper will contribute to the protective development and adaptive management of the Mekong Basin and the TSL in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on climate exposures and human migration has focused largely on assessing short‐term responses to temperature and precipitation shocks. In this paper, we suggest that this common coping strategies model can be extended to account for mechanisms that link environmental conditions to migration behavior over longer periods of time. We argue that early‐life climate exposures may affect the likelihood of migration from childhood through early adulthood by influencing parental migration, community migration networks, human capital development, and decisions about household resource allocation, all of which are correlates of geographic mobility. After developing this conceptual framework, we evaluate the corresponding hypotheses using a big data approach, analyzing 20 million individual georeferenced records from 81 censuses implemented across 31 countries in tropical Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. For each world region, we estimate regression models that predict lifetime migration (a change in residence between birth and ages 30–39) as a function of temperature and precipitation anomalies in early life, defined as the year prior to birth to age four. Results suggest that early‐life climate is systematically associated with changes in the probability of lifetime migration in most regions of the tropics, with the largest effects observed in sub‐Saharan Africa. In East and Southern Africa, the effects of temperature shocks vary by sex and educational attainment and in a manner that suggests women and those of lower socioeconomic status are most vulnerable. Finally, we compare our main results with models using alternative measures of climate exposures. This comparison suggests climate exposures during the prenatal period and first few years of life are particularly (but not exclusively) salient for lifetime migration, which is most consistent with the hypothesized human capital mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the reliability of regional climate downscaling products from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-Southeast Asia (CORDEX-SEA) in reproducing the present-day wind at the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia (ECPM). A total of five CORDEX-SEA products, namely CNRM-CM5(RegCM4), CSIRO-Mk3-6-0(RegCM4), EC-EARTH(RegCM4), HadGEM2-ES(RegCM4) and MPI-ESM-MR(RegCM4), with a resolution of 25 km, were compared to reference data from the European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth generation atmospheric reanalysis ERA5 spanning 1980–2005. This study focused on the period of the southwest monsoon, specifically the months of June, July and August (JJA), as wind during this season is known to play an important role in generating upwelling at the ECPM. The results obtained show that only three of the CORDEX-SEA products, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0(RegCM4), HadGEM2-ES(RegCM4) and MPI-ESM-MR(RegCM4), were able to reproduce the wind in terms of wind speed, wind stress curl and wind pattern as effectively as ERA5. An ensemble was made from these three CORDEX-SEA products, and it was found that the ensemble was able to reproduce a value of the Upwelling Index (UI) that was similar to the reference data, albeit with some bias. Hence, only the three stated CORDEX-SEA products and their ensemble are suitable to be used for future climate change studies within the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing weather patterns, increasing frequency and intensity of natural hazards, and rising sea levels associated with global climate change have the potential to threaten cultural heritage sites worldwide. This is especially the case for maritime heritage sites located in the low-lying coastal and delta regions of Asia. Maritime heritage can reflect both highly localized cultural products based on the coupling of people and maritime environments and the historic footprints of complex maritime networks that connect people, ideas, and material over vast distances, creating unique cultural spheres. Furthermore, maritime heritage sites potentially serve as or contain records of how past societies have been impacted by and adapted to past environmental stress. Therefore, their degradation threatens local/regional/global cultural patrimony as well as evidence of human resilience and fragility in the face of environmental change. This makes a strong case for urgent preservation. However, the possible damage caused by climate change and the scale of vulnerable maritime heritage pose seemingly insurmountable challenges. In this paper, we present the ways in which maritime heritage sites across Asia are vulnerable to environmental stresses, such as changing sea levels, coastal erosion, flooding, and storm surges. Our objective is to draw upon our experience documenting endangered cultural heritage across South and Southeast Asia to illustrate that there are unique conceptual and practical characteristics of maritime heritage that complicate effective management and conservation efforts on the scale required to prevent massive loss by climate change. We conclude by stressing the need to reconceptualize debates about the custody and stewardship of maritime heritage and the urgency of employing a wide range of innovative preservation solutions to ensure maritime patrimony is not lost to the rising tides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent transformative resilience research calls for urban climate interventions that better meet the needs of low-income and other marginalized groups. Such initiatives, it is suggested, must move beyond technocratic and superficial solutions to address the systems and structures that create climate vulnerability. While these are important theoretical developments, there is still much to be learned about how to support transformative resilience on the ground. This paper situates transformative resilience theory in practice with lessons from a five-year research partnership in Southeast Asian cities. We argue that for resilience research to advance rights and justice, knowledge production and mobilization efforts must be conceptualized as active parts of the transformation process. Bringing together conceptual and methodological insights from resilience, political ecology and governance learning research, we offer three pathways for transformative resilience and present examples of how they can be operationalized in Southeast Asia and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid deployment of modern renewable energy generation capacity in the fast‐growing Southeast Asian region will be crucial to ensure that the region can meet its increasing future energy demand in a sustainable way. However, many countries will need assistance through international cooperation and foreign aid to develop their sustainable energy sources. The three East Asian donor states Japan, South Korea and China are particularly crucial because they account for a large share of aid disbursement to the region and serve as development role models for many recipient countries. All three states are signatories of the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and thus committed to the global goals of climate protection and sustainable energy development. This paper is based on an analysis of official aid databases and second‐party data to explore the details of the energy‐related aid contributions of the three key donor states to Southeast Asia during the last 15 years. The findings indicate that all three states contradicted their own international pledges by financing fossil‐fuel power generation projects in many countries in the region. Although recent policy changes in Japan and South Korea are cause for optimism, the opacity of China's energy‐related aid flows combined with its renewed support for domestic coal power generation are worrying signs for the future of energy development in Southeast Asia and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global demand for water has been growing rapidly in the last decade with a global population growth rate of 1.1% p.a., which is equivalent to 81 million people per year. Southeast Asian countries are facing severe water scarcity challenge due to their location in the tropics. In 2018, the Sumba Island experienced the highest temperature of 36°C and lesser rainfall of 911.1 mm³ per year and it was classified as a long dry island prone to drought due to dry winds from Australian desserts. This paper focuses on the perceived effect of water scarcity on livelihoods in the Mandahu Village, Indonesia, due to climate change. Sampling and survey covered rural households and the findings showed that the average household of 4 to 8 people consumed around 250 dm³ of water per day. The community relied on two main sources of clean water from two main springs. However, the prolonged dry season from May until December every year results in major challenges to access water and eventually affect the agricultural productivity. Hence, the feasibility of the fog collection technology has been investigated from technological, economic and social points of view as a reliable and cost-effective source of water. The outcome of this work will produce a feasibility statement for fog-to-water as an alternative solution counteracting water scarcity in the Sumba Island, a solution which can be replicated in other climate change stricken hot spots in Southeast Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the adaptation strategies of developing countries and the possible adaptation options available for Southeast Asia. Adaptation refers to the actions taken by individuals, communities, or governments in response to climate change, to reduce the adverse impacts or to take advantage of opportunities offered by such changes. Adaptation strategies have hardly been considered by many Southeast Asian countries in as recently as two or three years ago. The cost of adaptation and the funding available is also discussed, with the possibility of using institutions for risk sharing (disaster management) and risk transfer (insurance and derivatives) as measures to adapt. A regional outlook for adaptation for Southeast Asia concludes the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Food- and water-borne diseases (FWBD) are among climate and environmental sensitive infectious diseases. Climate change can highly exacerbate FWBD through vulnerable water systems. Highlights • Food- and water-borne diseases (FWBD) are a major cause of mortality and morbidity. • Africa counts 91 million people falling ill and 137,000 dying per year by FWBD. • Climate change could increase FWBD through bad water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). • Floods' vulnerability maps of drinking water systems are important for prevention. • Appropriate WASH interventions can significantly contribute in reducing FWBD under climate change. Abstract This paper provides a view of the major facts and figures related to infectious diseases with a focus on food-borne and water-borne diseases and their link with environmental factors and climate change. The global burden of food-borne diseases for 31 selected hazards was estimated by the World Health Organization at 33 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2010 with 40% of this burden concentrated among children under 5 years of age. The highest burden per population of food-borne diseases is found in Africa, followed by Southeast Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean sub-regions. Unsafe water used for the cleaning and processing of food is a key risk factors contributing to food-borne diseases. The role of quality and quantity of water to the general burden of infectious diseases deserves attention, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, as its effects go beyond the food chain. Water-related infectious diseases are a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, and climate change effects will exacerbate the challenges for the public health sector for both food-borne and water-borne diseases. Selected case studies from Africa and Asia show that (i) climate change extreme events, such as floods, may exacerbate the risks for infectious diseases spreading through water systems, and (ii) improvements related to drinking water, sanitation and hygiene could result in a significant reduction of intestinal parasitic infections among school-aged children. There is a need to better anticipate the impacts of climate change on infectious diseases and fostering multi-stakeholder engagement and multi-sectoral collaborations for integrated interventions at schools, community and household levels. The paper calls for giving priority to improving the environmental conditions affecting food-borne and water-borne infectious diseases under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Rambutan (Nephelium lappaceum L.) is an underexploited fruit of the humid tropics. • Rambutan seeds are treasure trove of beneficial lipids. • The essential chemicals in Rambutan's edible components account for the fruit's substantial nutraceuticals qualities. • Growth in the production, marketing, and processing sectors will elevate the livelihood generation of the Rambutan growers. • Popularizing Rambutan as an orchard plantation crop will be a significant step toward carbon sequestration and combating global climate change. The rambutan (Nephelium lappaceum L.), a member of the family Sapindaceae finds its natural habitat in tropical regions of South East Asia. Present cultivation of this crop covers different humid tropic regions of the world across the continents. The utilization of this fruit in various means to serve the interests of industrial and nutraceutical sector are being explored in the recent past; cultivation of rambutan also trends to develop livelihood quality of growers due to its demand in export and the fresh market as an exotic fruit attributed by its peculiar vibrant red hairy outgrowth of the peel. Fruits are deseeded during processing and the peels and seeds remain as a wasted by-product of the canning industry. Various studies have reported that different parts of rambutan fruit such as peel, seed and root contain bioactive compounds which hold potentiality for curing inflammation, bacterial diseases, diabetes and cancer. Stakeholders may consider rambutan as an orchard crop since its increased tree biomass will help mitigate climate change and reduce the risk of severe climatic disasters like strong winds, erosion, and flooding. Trees enhance soil fertility and consequently farm productivity. The present review paper has been undertaken for providing an overview of the chemical constituents, potential industrial utilization and valuable nutraceutical properties of rambutan along with its role in livelihood development and climate resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper undertakes an in-depth analysis of six least developed countries (LDCs) in South and Southeast Asia to assess the extent of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into national development plans by reviewing their National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs), national development plans, and Strategic Programs for Climate Resilience (SPCRs) (where available). The paper proposes two perspectives to analyze the level of mainstreaming and five factors that may affect such a level. The results show that there is a significant difference in the success of their mainstreaming efforts: mainstreaming is relatively advanced in Bangladesh, limited in Lao People's Democratic Republic, the Maldives, and Nepal, and still minimal in Bhutan and Cambodia. Among the factors, the study finds that the inter-ministerial coordination supported by the highest levels of government is most relevant to the success of mainstreaming, which is measured by the integration of climate adaptation consideration into development priorities and a country's own initiatives, particularly those involving budget allocation. Recognition of the need for mainstreaming and monitoring and evaluation also affect the success of mainstreaming efforts in LDCs. Another important factor is to make adaptation plans compatible with national development plans in terms of their time horizon, and SPCRs effectively facilitate this process. As all countries still require external support for advancing mainstreaming, the role of development partners is instrumental. The paper points to issues that need to be incorporated in the relevant NAPAs including updating to facilitate mainstreaming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

‘Non-traditional security’ (NTS) is prominently featured in the agenda of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other ASEAN-led institutions in the Asia-Pacific. ‘NTS’ brings together a series transnational and non-military security threats that are considered common among regional states, urgent for them to attend to, and non-sensitive all at the same time. Thisa priorimakes it a self-evident focus of attempts to bring regional security cooperation ‘to a higher plane’. However, this paper reveals that the uncontroversial character of NTS is overestimated, by shedding light on the co-existence of divergent – and potentially contradictory – interpretations of its meaning and implications in ASEAN and the wider region. In a context where ASEAN's relevance to the pursuit of regional security is increasingly being measured against its (in)ability to provide a coherent approach to security challenges that affect the region, the contested nature of NTS has important implications for the grouping's resilience in the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The volume of the aquaculture industry has tripled since 2000 and recent data showed that 47% of the total global fish production and 10.34% of it comes from the Southeast Asia region. Thus, the purpose of this study is to synthesise the available literature of aquaculture research in Southeast Asia from 1990 to 2019 using the scientometric method. This article found that a total of 1662 publications with 230,221 total citations were retrieved from Web of Sciences on 10th November 2020. The aquaculture research's landscape from Southeast Asia showed that the year of 2018 resulted in the highest number of total publications in terms of the year. The study reveals that "aquaculture" is the top publication title used, and the author of Qiwei Qin is the most prolific author in the aquaculture research in Southeast Asia (author's affiliation was not among the Southeast Asia countries). The study also reveals that Vietnam and Can Tho University is the leading country and organisation, respectively within Southeast Asia in this research area (i.e. Aquaculture Research) in terms of the highest publication. The key topic and development showed that "Ecology, Earth, Marine" discipline dominate the study in this area. There are six clusters that emerged as key topics with high silhouette scores ranging from 0.649 to 0.988. Surprisingly, keyword with largest magnitude was "climate change" (strength = 10.9997), with a burst span of 2 years and the strongest burst strength for an article by Richards and Friess. Overall, this study shows a diversity trend with the continuous development of cross disciplinary integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

40% of global population, who resides in Asian monsoon region is at high risk from extreme hot summer events, which is expected to increase by 25%/30 years under RCP8.5 scenario. Using Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large-ensemble simulations we assess the relative contribution of external forcings and internal variability on hot extremes over South and East Asia. Climate change projects surface mean temperature to reach 2.0 °C and 5.0 °C by ~2050 and ~2100, respectively, making the region uninhabitable under exposed conditions. Internal variability will partly obscure anthropogenic warming over South and Southeast Asia; however, East Asia will experience a 4–6 fold rise in record breaking hot events in later periods. Nevertheless, beyond 2.35 °C warming internal variability will decrease over South Asia due to weaker albedo feedback on unforced internal variability. Our results contradict the existing hypothesis that warming will increase volatility in weather patterns everywhere, particularly the Asian monsoon regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to climate change, the world is experiencing a great transition in how nations pursue, distribute, and utilize resources. However, a more pressing concern posed by climate change is its exacerbation of environmental inequality, which is unevenly burdening economically marginalized countries. Among those in the marginalized group, India and its neighboring countries in the South and Southeast Asian regions have been classified as particularly vulnerable to climate change-induced risks. Focusing on state fragility as a main cause of a country's climate change vulnerability, this research seeks to examine which configurations of state fragility dimensions contribute to heightened climate vulnerability in the regions through the utilization of fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fs/QCA). The analysis suggests that when countries exhibit (1) lower levels of fragility in cohesion and social dimensions combined with higher levels of economic, political, and external intervention dimensions of state fragility; or (2) higher levels of cohesion, economic, political, social, and external intervention dimensions, they suffer from a heightened level of climate change vulnerability. In light of the findings, this research proposes that policymakers in India and its neighboring countries implement policies that foster inclusive growth, enhance their democratic governance, and leverage international regional organizations to address vulnerability to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transboundary water governance is highly complex. It is often plagued by tense relations, technocratic water management and from being infrastructure orientated. In particular, the governance of transboundary rivers in the South and Southeast Asian region is likely to become increasingly complex due to a changing geopolitical environment. This makes it difficult to assess whether it will follow a similar trajectory as countries in the global North, where the uncertainty and complexities involved in water management are recognized and basin wide cooperation is often the norm, or forge a different path. An expert survey was conducted to identify the most significant factors influencing transboundary water governance in South and Southeast Asia and their implications for the future to extrapolate the trajectory of hydropolitics for the region. It was found that China is becoming increasingly influential in the governance of transboundary water in the region, which may come to represent a new water management regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of global warming on lightning flash rates remains relatively unknown. In this study, the South China Sea (SCS) and the surrounding areas within Southeast Asia were selected to examine the long‐term trend and future projection of lightning activity based on the currently longest satellite‐based lightning data set available and climate models. Our study revealed a reduction in the observed lightning flash rates around the SCS, with a linear trend of −0.11 fl km−2 yr−2 during 1996–2013. In contrast, the precipitation around the SCS exhibited an increasing trend and was negatively correlated with the local lightning flash rate. The sea surface temperature gradient over equatorial Pacific Ocean, latent heat flux over the equatorial Indian Ocean, local convective available potential energy, precipitation and aerosol changes collectively accounted for 82% of the variance in the lightning fluctuations over the SCS and Southeast Asia. Multiple linear regression proxies of lightning flash rates were constructed and applied to the climate models. The models indicated that lightning activity around the SCS is projected to intensify by 10% and 12% by the end of the 21st century under SSP245 and SSP370, respectively. Plain Language Summary: The projection of future changes in lightning activity is uncertain owing to various factors, and different regions exhibit distinct trajectories. In this study, the focus was on the South China Sea (SCS) and Southeast Asia, and past variations in lightning activity was examined and used to predict future variations in lightning activity. Employing a multiple linear regression approach, we identified the large‐scale thermodynamic drivers and local environmental factors that influence lightning activity around the SCS. The research findings indicated a reduction in lightning activity over the past few decades over the SCS and Southeast Asia region. The simulation results indicate that in the future under ongoing global warming, regional lightning activity will intensify. Key Points: Lightning activity and precipitation show opposing regional trends around the South China Sea (SCS)Remote thermodynamic and local environmental factors both contribute to the variability in lightning around the SCSUnder future climate change scenarios, lightning activity around the SCS is projected to gradually increase [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides high-resolution information on the projected changes in annual extreme rainfall and high- and low-streamflow events over Southeast Asia under extreme climate change. The analysis was performed using the bias-corrected result of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) multi-model experiment for the period 1971–2050. Eleven rainfall indices were calculated, along with streamflow simulation using the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model. The historical period 1981–2010 and the near-future period 2021–2050 were considered for this analysis. Results indicate that, over former mainland Southeast Asia, Myanmar will face more challenges in the near future. The east coast of Myanmar will experience more extreme high-rainfall conditions, while northern Myanmar will have longer dry spells. Over the Indonesian maritime continent, Sumatra and Java will suffer from an increase in dry-spell length of up to 40 %, while the increase in extreme high rainfall will occur over Borneo and mountainous areas in Papua. Based on the streamflow analysis, the impact of climate change is more prominent in a low-flow event than in a high-flow event. The majority of rivers in the central Mekong catchment, Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, and Java will experience more extreme low-flow events. More extreme dry conditions in the near future are also seen from the increasing probability of future low-flow occurrences, which reaches 101 % and 90 %, on average, over Sumatra and Java, respectively. In addition, based on our results over Java and Sumatra, we found that the changes in extreme high- and low-streamflow events are more pronounced in rivers with steep hydrographs (rivers where flash floods are easily triggered), while rivers with flat hydrographs have a higher risk in terms of the probability of low-flow change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on hydro-meteorological droughts in the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB), Thailand under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We used three Reginal Climate Models (RCMs) of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment—Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA), which are bias corrected. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate streamflow for future periods. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) were estimated and used for drought characterization at three time scales (3, 6, and 12 months). The lag time between meteorological and hydrological droughts is approximately 1–3 months. The results suggest that the CPRB is likely to experience less frequent hydro-meteorological drought events in the future. The meteorological drought is projected to be longer, more severe, and intense. The severity of hydrological drought tends to decrease, but the intensity could increase. Climate change has been discovered to alter drought behaviors in the CPRB, posing a threat to drought monitoring and warning because droughts will be less predictable in future climate scenarios. The characterization of historical and future droughts over the CPRB is therefore valuable in developing an improved understanding of the risks of drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One invasive species that decreases citrus fruit yield is the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama. The psyllids are the carriers of Candidatus Liberibacter species, the pathogen that causes citrus greening disease (commonly called huanglongbing, or HLB), which is the most devastating citrus disease in the world. Originally from Southeast Asia, the Asian citrus psyllid, a highly invasive species, is spreading rapidly throughout the world. Regarding geographical distribution and population growth, climate change will aggravate its impacts on many citrus agroecosystems. However, limited information on the mechanisms underpinning the pest's invasion impedes the formulation of biosecurity risk measures. We highlight the potential suitable areas for D. citri, combining their climatic requirements, temperature and humidity, in the CLIMEX model. The model's performance was high, and it can be utilized for biosecurity risk assessment, as only 2.82% of the 496 known occurrence spots were located in areas deemed unsuitable by the model's fit. The potential habitat suitability for D. citri covered all continents except Antarctica, and the suitability ranges from unsuitable (EI < 0) to highly suitable areas (EI ≥ 30). Our model predicted suitable areas outside its known native and invaded regions, especially in Africa, South America, and Oceania. Most of these regions will remain suitable for D. citri in the future. This underscores the importance of our findings as a significant guide for future early detection and the development of climate-smart management strategies against D. citri. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models are a core element in performing local estimation of the climate change input. In this work, a novel approach to perform a fast downscaling of global temperature anomalies on a regional level is presented. The approach is based on a set of data-driven models linking global temperature anomalies and regional and global emissions to regional temperature anomalies. In particular, due to the limited number of available data, a linear autoregressive structure with exogenous input (ARX) has been considered. To demonstrate their relevance to the existing literature and context, the proposed ARX models have been employed to evaluate the impact of temperature anomalies on rice production in a socially, economically, and climatologically fragile area like Southeast Asia. The results show a significant impact on this region, with estimations strongly in accordance with information presented in the literature from different sources and scientific fields. The work represents a first step towards the development of a fast, data-driven, holistic approach to the climate change impact evaluation problem. The proposed ARX data-driven models reveal a novel and feasible way to downscale global temperature anomalies to regional levels, showing their importance in comprehending global temperature anomalies, emissions, and regional climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal and small island communities in Southeast Asia face daily threats from the impacts of climate change and climate-related hazards. This paper describes and analyses local and indigenous knowledge and practices related to climate-related hazards identified and documented in Indonesia, the Philippines and Timor-Leste. These include observations of changes in the environment and celestial bodies to predict climate-related hazards. Communities use local materials and methods to prevent and/or mitigate such hazards, and adapt to and prepare for them. Rituals and ceremonies are based on traditional or religious beliefs. Together with customary laws that govern behaviour, these rituals engender and reinforce respect for the environment, strengthen social cohesion, and thus help communities to better face and respond to the impacts of climate change and climate-related hazards. After going through a process of documentation, analysis and validation, local and indigenous knowledge can be grouped and categorised, which helps us better understand how such knowledge can be integrated with science. This will then enable communities to develop strategies to cope with climate-related hazards and adapt to climate change. Scientists, practitioners and policy-makers can also harness this knowledge for further research, education, and policy. It is important to promote the transmission of local and indigenous knowledge to increase community resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the western Maritime Continent during the austral summer. For this purpose, cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to the tropical rainfall measuring mission rain rate and the Japanese Reanalysis-25 data for the period 1998-2008. The real-time multivariate MJO index by Wheeler and Hendon (Mon Wea Rev 132:1917-1932, ) is adopted to define the intensity and the phase of MJO. It is demonstrated that the hourly maximum rain rate over the domain tends to increase when convectively active phase of MJO approaches the Maritime Continent. In contrast, the hourly maximum rain rate tends to decrease when convectively suppressed phase of MJO resides over the region. The changes in the rain rate due to MJO differ over the ocean and the land. This difference is the greatest when the MJO is in the mature stage. Throughout the day during this stage, terrestrial rain rates show minimum values while diurnally varying oceanic rain rates record maximum values. Thus, precipitation becomes more intense in the morning over the Java Sea and is weakened in the evening over Borneo and Sumatra during the mature stage of MJO. During the decaying stage of MJO over the Maritime Continent, the diurnal cycle of precipitation weakens significantly over the ocean but only weakly over land. Analyses suggest that the anomalous lower level winds accompanied by MJO interact with the monsoonal flow over the Maritime Continent. Westerlies induced by MJO convection in the mature stage are superimposed on the monsoonal westerlies over the equator and increase wind speed mainly over the Java Sea due to the blocking effect of orography. Mountainous islands induce flow bifurcation, causing near-surface winds to converge mainly over the oceanic channels between two islands. As a result, heat flux release from the ocean to the atmosphere is enhanced by the increased surface wind resulting in instability as described in the wind-induced surface heat exchange mechanism. This may contribute to heavy rainfall over the Java Sea in the morning during the mature stage. On the other hand, convergence and vertical velocity over the islands, which play important roles in inducing nighttime rainfall, tend to be weak in the evening during the mature stage of MJO. Strong westerlies arising from MJO and the seasonal flow during the mature stage tend to interrupt convergence over islands. This interruption of convergence by MJO gives rise to decreased rain rates over the land regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that in the future typhoons and floods may become more intense and will occur more frequently in some regions. This prediction imposes an implicit continuum of choices on all, ranging from: do nothing (beyond the status quo) to further prepare (paying the costs as they occur); through to invest now (in, for example, flood mitigation infrastructure) in the hope that such investments will reduce damage later. Good choices require good information. In this paper, we provide an empirical demonstration of one method (the life satisfaction approach) for generating quantitative estimates of both the tangible and intangible cost of disasters – the cost of doing nothing (beyond the status quo). We use data collected from almost 400 households in a flood prone region of the Philippines, finding that from 2008 to 2013, flooding generated an average of US$86 per annum in financial damages for each household. Our model predicts that the average respondent would require a one-off payment of between US$2,577 and US$3,221 (3.5 to 4.4 times the average annual income) to 'compensate' them for the additional intangible costs of flooding. Estimated total compensation exceeds estimated financial damage by about 1/3 – suggesting that assessments, which do not account for intangibles may substantially underestimate the cost of doing nothing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the economy-wide impacts of wild catch fishery decline due to climate change on major wild catch producing countries in Southeast Asia and South America, particularly focusing on food industries. A global economic model has been extended to separate the choice between wild catch and aquaculture in the production and consumption functions. The fish commodity/sector is also disaggregated in the database into wild catch and aquaculture commodities/sectors in order to make it compatible with the modified model. Results show that the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Ecuador and Peru experience considerable impacts on their economies, food industries, and households. Vietnam experiences the lowest impact on their economy because of low impact on their ocean fish resource. Results also indicate that expansions in aquaculture outputs are not adequate to compensate losses in wild catch production in all countries, and there will be a scarcity of fish in the international market that will be harmful to international trade of wild catch and aquaculture, as well as global food security. Households will also be substantially vulnerable due to high prices of fish and lower income levels resulting from contractions of production levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forested tropical peatlands in Southeast Asia store at least 42 000 Million metric tonnes (Mt) of soil carbon. Human activity and climate change threatens the stability of this large pool, which has been decreasing rapidly over the last few decades owing to deforestation, drainage and fire. In this paper we estimate the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from drainage of lowland tropical peatland for agricultural and forestry development which dominates the perturbation of the carbon balance in the region. Present and future emissions from drained peatlands are quantified using data on peatland extent and peat thickness, present and projected land use, water management practices and decomposition rates. Of the 27.1 Million hectares (Mha) of peatland in Southeast Asia, 12.9 Mha had been deforested and mostly drained by 2006. This latter area is increasing rapidly because of increasing land development pressures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission caused by decomposition of drained peatlands was between 355 Mt y-1 and 855 Mt y-1 in 2006 of which 82% came from Indonesia, largely Sumatra and Kalimantan. At a global scale, CO2 emission from peatland drainage in Southeast Asia is contributing the equivalent of 1.3% to 3.1% of current global CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuel. If current peatland development and management practices continue, these emissions are predicted to continue for decades. This warrants inclusion of tropical peatland CO2 emissions in global greenhouse gas emission calculations and climate mitigation policies. Uncertainties in emission calculations are discussed and research needs for improved estimates are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ecosystems approach to capture fisheries management has some practical implications for institutions. The goal should be to achieve, at the local or sub-regional level, an integration of fisheries and habitat management. To succeed, cooperation among the various departments of fisheries, environment, and marine and coastal resources together with those responsible for zoning of activities along the coast and in coastal waters must be fostered. In addition, fishermen and coastal villagers must be involved. Here, an introduction is given to some of the institutional and social aspects that must be addressed, based on experiences in Southeast Asia. The paper includes: a) an overview of institutional implications at various levels; b) participatory and local approaches to fisheries and environmental management; c) the uses of various types of fisheries resources and environmental conservation areas; d) coastal planning activities, that have increasing importance due to the rise in natural hazards in the wake of climate change; and e) the need to manage fishing capacity to reduce conflicts and to provide a balance between fishing effort and ecosystem productivity. Positive actions in these areas should move ecosystems towards sustainability and create a less conflict prone environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatiotemporal patterns and shifts of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) play a pivotal role in ecological conservation and addressing climate change. For example, by quantifying the NEP information within ecosystems, we can achieve the protection and restoration of natural ecological balance. Monitoring the changes in NEP enables a more profound understanding and prediction of ecosystem alterations caused by global warming, thereby providing a scientific basis for formulating policies aimed at mitigating and adapting to climate change. The accurate prediction of NEP sheds light on the ecosystem's response to climatic variations and aids in formulating targeted carbon sequestration policies. While traditional ecological process models provide a comprehensive approach to predicting NEP, they often require extensive experimental and empirical data, increasing research costs. In contrast, machine-learning models offer a cost-effective alternative for NEP prediction; however, the delicate balance in algorithm selection and hyperparameter tuning is frequently overlooked. In our quest for the optimal prediction model, we examined a combination of four mainstream machine-learning algorithms with four hyperparameter-optimization techniques. Our analysis identified that the backpropagation neural network combined with Bayesian optimization yielded the best performance, with an R2 of 0.68 and an MSE of 1.43. Additionally, deep-learning models showcased promising potential in NEP prediction. Selecting appropriate algorithms and executing precise hyperparameter-optimization strategies are crucial for enhancing the accuracy of NEP predictions. This approach not only improves model performance but also provides us with new tools for a deeper understanding of and response to ecosystem changes induced by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Understanding the long‐term impact of projected climate change on tropical rainforests is critical given their central role in the Earth's system. Palaeoecological records can provide a valuable perspective on this problem. Here, we examine the effects of past climatic changes on the dominant forest type of Southeast Asia – lowland dipterocarp forest.We use a range of proxies extracted from a 1400‐yr‐old lacustrine sedimentary sequence from north‐eastern Philippines to determine long‐term vegetation responses of lowland dipterocarp forest, including its dominant tree group dipterocarps, to changes in precipitation, fire and nutrient availability over time.Our results show a positive relationship between dipterocarp pollen accumulation rates (PARs) and leaf wax hydrogen isotope values, which suggests a negative effect of drier conditions on dipterocarp abundance. Furthermore, we find a positive relationship between dipterocarp PARs and the proxy for phosphorus availability, which suggests phosphorus controls the productivity of these keystone trees on longer time scales. Other pollen taxa show widely varying relationships with the abiotic factors, demonstrating a high diversity of plant functional responses.Our findings provide novel insights into lowland dipterocarp forest responses to changing climatic conditions in the past and highlight potential impacts of future climate change on this globally important ecosystem. See also the Commentary on this article by Utteridge 240: 2176–2178. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In comparison to temperate and arid regions, environmental responses to the Last Glacial Maximum and the Terminal Pleistocene and Holocene boundary remain poorly known for many parts of the tropics, making it challenging to unravel human–landscape interactions across this timeframe. This is particularly the case in insular Near Oceania, where sea‐level fluctuations and potential changes in forest cover may have had major impacts on hunter–gatherer populations. Here, we apply stable carbon and oxygen isotope analyses to small‐mammal teeth from four Pleistocene–Holocene (spanning from 29 000 years ago to the late Holocene) sequences in the Bismarck Archipelago to reconstruct changes in environments directly exploited by human populations in this part of the world. Our results show a subtle response of tropical habitats in Near Oceania to relatively arid conditions during the late‐glacial period, something that has also been observed at sites in South and Southeast Asia, followed by a Terminal Pleistocene–Holocene expansion of tropical forest cover. Nevertheless, site‐based variability in environmental responses across this period highlight the need for more multidisciplinary studies of human occupation sequences in a region that is becoming increasingly central to exploring human adaptations, environmental modifications and social network development over the past 20 000 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reforestation is promoted to address the dual global climate and biodiversity crises. This is particularly relevant for carbon‐rich, biodiverse tropical peatlands, for which active reforestation typically involves two post‐germination stages: nursery rearing of seedlings, then outplanting. Yet, linkages between these stages and cumulative seedling performance are rarely quantified during tropical peatland reforestation. By monitoring tree seedling survival and growth, we investigate factors influencing seedling performance (species identity, seedling source, treatments, and climate), whether nursery performance predicts outplanting performance, and calculate cumulative survival (nursery plus outplanting) in Sebangau National Park, Indonesian Borneo. Standardized survival at 2 years was higher in the nursery (mean 67% across 40 species) than outplanting (44% across 24 species). For nursery and outplanting, species identity was the main source of variation in survival and height growth. Seedling source, treatments, site condition, and precipitation had no significant impact on survival but did influence growth in some cases. Nursery survival did not predict outplanting survival, but nursery height did predict outplanting height. Across species, around a quarter of seedlings survived from nursery to outplanting over 4 years. Cumulative survival represents a more realistic basis for assessing the genetic and other resource costs of tropical peatland reforestation. Our two‐phase approach identified outplanting as the greater bottleneck to cumulative seedling survivability. We argue that the nursery stage may be used to harden seedlings for degraded peatland conditions by selecting more relevant treatments (e.g. flooding) and screening for resilience to common disturbances (e.g. fire) to enhance outplanted, and thus cumulative, seedling survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]