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Copyright of Canadian Foreign Policy Journal (CFPJ) is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Significant challenges from changes in climate and land use face sustainable water use in the Canadian Prairies ecozone. The region has experienced significant warming since the mid-20th century, and continued warming of an additional 2 ∘ C by 2050 is expected. This paper aims to enhance understanding of climate controls on Prairie basin hydrology through numerical model experiments. It approaches this by developing a basin-classification-based virtual modelling framework for a portion of the Prairie region and applying the modelling framework to investigate the hydrological sensitivity of one Prairie basin class (High Elevation Grasslands) to changes in climate. High Elevation Grasslands dominate much of central and southern Alberta and parts of south-western Saskatchewan, with outliers in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. The experiments revealed that High Elevation Grassland snowpacks are highly sensitive to changes in climate but that this varies geographically. Spring maximum snow water equivalent in grasslands decreases 8 % ∘ C -1 of warming. Climate scenario simulations indicated that a 2 ∘ C increase in temperature requires at least an increase of 20 % in mean annual precipitation for there to be enough additional snowfall to compensate for enhanced melt losses. The sensitivity in runoff is less linear and varies substantially across the study domain: simulations using 6 ∘ C of warming, and a 30 % increase in mean annual precipitation yields simulated decreases in annual runoff of 40 % in climates of the western Prairie but 55 % increases in climates of eastern portions. These results can be used to identify those areas of the region that are most sensitive to climate change and highlight focus areas for monitoring and adaptation. The results also demonstrate how a basin classification-based virtual modelling framework can be applied to evaluate regional-scale impacts of climate change with relatively high spatial resolution in a robust, effective and efficient manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper engages narratives from Tess Lea's (2020) book 'Wild Policy' for how they help consider the messy or 'wild' nature of global policy interventions on sustainability, including in its latest formation as the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We do so alongside data from research on education in the territory of Nunavut, as well as informed by our experiences as settler and Cree university researchers concerned with place and land-informed education policy. Engaging with a methodological framing of policy ecology, the article considers both policy artifacts and 'ambiences' or materialities, and their interrelations. We examine how a Saskatchewan university's draft SDG plan manifests aspects of pre-fabricated globally mobile 'wild policy', including in its gaps in land-informed Indigenous engagement. Instead, we suggest how more systemic and decolonizing approaches to land-informed education policy, as in development in Inuit-based higher education in Nunavut, can inform both future policy decision-making and policy research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the social learning, and its drivers and outcomes, in Yorkton, Saskatchewan, Canada, following flooding events that occurred in 2010, 2014, and 2016. The data for this study came from 15 semi-structured interviews and 110 newspaper articles concerning the flood events and infrastructure upgrades. Research demonstrates that the flood experience and the interactions and communications between the City, Council, and the public have produced social learning. However, this learning has been single- and double-loop learning. While the data revealed no explicit barriers to social learning, the perception that the public cannot contribute to stormwater management issues may have inhibited the degree of social learning that was achieved. As a result of social learning, Yorkton is now more prepared to deal with future flood events, both in terms of prevention and emergency response. However, social learning is diminishing as a result of the passage of time and the false sense of safety that the infrastructure upgrades create. Diminishing social learning has policy implications for Yorkton as the city has not yet implemented all the proposed flood upgrades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research has historically exploited Indigenous communities, particularly in the medical and health sciences, due to the dominance of discriminatory colonial systems. In many regions across Canada and worldwide, historical and continued injustices have worsened health among Indigenous Peoples. Global health crises such as climate change are most adversely impacting Indigenous communities, as their strong connection to the land means that even subtle changes in the environment can disproportionately affect local food and health systems. As we explore strategies for climate change preparedness and adaptation, Indigenous Peoples have a wealth of Traditional Knowledge to tackle specific climate and related health issues. If combined with digital citizen science, data collection by citizens within a community could provide relevant and timely information about specific jurisdictions. Digital devices such as smartphones, which have widespread ownership, can enable equitable participation in citizen science projects to obtain big data for mitigating and managing climate change impacts. Informed by a Two-Eyed Seeing approach, a decolonized lens to digital citizen science can advance climate change adaptation and preparedness efforts. This paper describes the 'Bridge Framework' for decolonizing digital citizen science using a case study with a subarctic Indigenous community in Saskatchewan, Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue Canadienne des Ressources Hydriques is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

North America's infrastructure, in general, and stormwater system, as a crucial component of our urban infrastructure, are in dire condition states that require attention and, in some cases, urgent intervention. According to the American Society of Civil Engineering (ASCE), the stormwater system received a condition state "D+". Even though existing management systems for storm pipes optimize the timing of maintenance and replacement aiming at improving the overall storm pipes' network condition, they ignored the effect of urban growth and climate change (i.e. intense and frequent rainfall cause flooding) on the pipes' deterioration. Thus, this paper presents a scheduling decision-making framework that opts at optimizing the pipes' replacement decisions to increase their resiliency while considering the annual expenditures, urban growth and its' future impact on the demand. To demonstrate the system's functionality, it was deployed on the storm pipes of Kindersley in Saskatchewan, Canada. The results showed that $300,000 a year was enough to meet the city's condition and flow demand–capacity goals, enhance their average condition from 33% to 63% and drop the flow demand–capacity to 64%. Furthermore, replacements' breakdown analysis indicated that longer analysis periods enhance the system's capability in capturing the long-term impact of the decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The soybean industry in Canada is seeking opportunities to expand cultivation due to economic and environmental benefits of growing soybean. Climate projections indicate that soybean expansion into Saskatchewan would be possible with the increases in the available crop heat units under a future warmer climate; however, crop water availability could limit yields. Using a crop growth model, we simulated soybean yields within the Canadian Regional Agricultural Model regions in Saskatchewan for the near-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s), and distant future (2070s) periods under different climate scenarios. Soybean yields were simulated without water stress (potential yield), with water stress (rainfed yield), and under full and partial irrigation scenarios. Irrigation water needs were estimated under the irrigation scenarios and irrigation water availability was discussed. Our results suggest that reasonable and likely more profitable yields (∼2000–2500 kg ha−1) can be achieved under rainfed conditions in the Black soil zone neighbouring Manitoba but soybean production would be less favourable in the Dark Brown soil zone and least favourable in the Brown soil zone. Northeastern regions in the Black soil zone were found to be suitable for growing soybean cultivars in the maturity group (MG) 0 in the distant future and MG 00 in the mid-term under the medium–high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Soybean would still not be suitable in the northwestern region. Our results indicate that regions in central Saskatchewan requiring 120–170 mm of irrigation are more likely to benefit from the proposed Lake Diefenbaker Irrigation Projects in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of the literature on risk treat it or deal with the phenomenon as a global issue. Defining risk as a universal event might lead to the use of a rigid definition of what is risk, as well as ignore both the diversity of risk perceptions and experience in everyday life and the unequal distribution of risk. This paper will explore the construction of climate change risk at the local level. The paper is based on a set of interviews with members of water governance institutions and local advisory watershed committees in a study on water governance in the South Saskatchewan River Basin in Alberta and Saskatchewan in 2007-2008. In the context of these interviews information was obtained relating to the perceived risk of climate change or climate variability and the associated impacts on water resources and whether plans, actions, or amendments to laws were anticipated to respond to climate change or climate variability into the future. The process of local contextualization and knowledge of the risk associated with changes to climate conditions is compared to the legislation and policy on climate in 2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While there are many studies about the environmental impacts of climate change, the role of cross-cultural children and their activities for climate change solutions has been a lesser focus of inquiry on climate change resiliency research. This paper discusses learning from reflective learning, Indigenous Elders land-based teaching, and music and arts learnings and positive interactions with cross-cultural children in a cross-cultural community garden. It is essential to know who we are as a colour settler family on Indigenous land (i.e., treaties six and seven territories known as Alberta and Saskatchewan in Canada). Our family has been involved with various cross-cultural children's activities in the community garden for over eight years. Learning together with cross-cultural children in a community garden assisted us in creating our belonging with land and people, building a cross-cultural community, and taking responsibility for climate change solutions. Following Indigenist research methodology, we used non-traditional stories such as growing foods, learning through Indigenous and intergenerational stories, father and daughter conversations, music, dance, and artwork. We hope learning about climate change solutions through cross-cultural children's activities in a community garden may inspire others to understand the importance of building a cross-cultural children's community for climate change solutions from and within everyday learning and practice. • Explore how cross-cultural children's activities can build a bridge between formal and informal learning. • Identify how community garden activities can help cross-cultural children for climate change resiliency. • Explore how children's cross-cultural activities can develop children's self-determination in climate change solutions. • Discuss how children's cross-cultural activities could enrich children's climate change understanding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of the globe has experienced significant warming trends that have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, these rates of warming are also influenced by short-term climate fluctuations driven by atmospheric circulation dynamics, resulting in inconsistent trend magnitudes in both time and space. This research evaluated winter (December-February) temperature trends over 1950-2020 at 91 climate stations across British Columbia (BC), Alberta (AB), and Saskatchewan (SK), Canada, and determined the components attributed to thermodynamic and dynamic (atmospheric circulation) factors. A synoptic climatological approach was used to classify atmospheric circulation patterns in the midtroposphere, relate those patterns to surface temperature, and evaluate changes in frequency. Moderate to high temperature increases over 71 years were found for most of the region, averaging 3.18C in southern SK to 4.1℃ in central-northern AB, and a maximum of 5.8℃ in northern BC. Low to moderate increases were found for southern BC, averaging 1.2℃. Changes in atmospheric circulation accounted for 29% and 31% of observed temperature changes in central-northern BC and AB, respectively. Dynamic factors were a moderate driver in southern AB (18%) and central-northern SK (13%), and low in southern SK (5%). Negative dynamic contributions in southern BC (-6%), suggest that atmospheric circulation changes counteracted thermodynamically driven temperature changes. Results were consistent with trend analyses, indicating this method is well suited for trend detection and identification of thermodynamic and dynamic drivers. Results of this research improve our understanding of the magnitude of winter temperature changes critical for informing adaptation and climate-related policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has a potentially significant influence on agricultural production in southern Saskatchewan. Crop yields are susceptible to weather patterns and seasonal fluctuations in this sub-humid region owing to the predominance of rain-fed farming practices. A modified Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT-M) and the output from 10 high-resolution (0.22°) regional climate models (RCMs) were used to develop simulations of spring wheat and rain-fed canola in 296 rural municipalities (RM) for a historical baseline period (1975–2004) and three 30-year future periods: near (2010–2039), middle (2040–2069), and far (2070–2099). We combined SWAT-M with the S-curve method to adjust yield to the original drought stress in the source code and evaluated eight indices of extreme precipitation and temperature. Results of calibration and validation suggest that the simulated crop yields generally agree with observed data. Crop yield showed lesser performance compared with streamflow and soil water content (SWC) along with percent bias, ranging from −9.6% to −14.8%, while streamflow calibration ranges from −5.3% to −7.7%. The multi-model ensemble median showed increasing radiative forcing in the temperature and precipitation indices, such that the RCM-projected weather indices were found to be warmer and wetter than those estimated using regional historical data. The results of simulating canola and spring wheat indicate an increase in crop yield of 17% and 9.7% in the near future, 28.2% and 15.6% in the middle future, and 44.7% and 32% in the far future, respectively. Although, there has been an increase in the median wheat and canola yields, a significant reduction in the annual production is observed. This decline in yield amounts to around 1000 kg/ha and is anticipated to occur in the near and middle future. This trend is quite pronounced in the extreme south and southwest regions. Overall, this innovative research framework, along with the region-specific model outcomes in the form of crop yield projections, will aid in the formulation of future agricultural policies aimed at promoting effective climate adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses two policy programs employed over the last several decades in the rural agricultural sector in Saskatchewan, Canada through the lens of adaptive management. The programs relate to farm environmental management practices and farm water infrastructure, which reduce the vulnerability of agricultural producers to climate change impacts. Data were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key informants from the agricultural policy community and then interpreted through qualitative content analysis. Results contribute to the scholarship of adaptive management and suggest ways to improve the two farm programs. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Adapting agriculture to climate change without deteriorating natural resources (e.g., water and energy) is critical to sustainable development. In this paper, we first comprehensively evaluate six agricultural adaptations in response to climate change (2021–2050) through the lens of the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus in Saskatchewan, Canada, using a previously developed nexus model—WEF-Sask. The adaptations involve agronomic measures (early planting date, reducing soil evaporation, irrigation expansion), genetic improvement (cultivars with larger growing degree days (GDD) requirement), and combinations of individual adaptations. The results show that the selected adaptations compensate for crop yield losses (wheat, canola, pea), caused by climate change, to various extents. However, from a nexus perspective, there are mixed effects on water productivity (WP), total agricultural water (green and blue) use, energy consumption for irrigation, and hydropower generation. Individual adaptations such as early planting date and increased GDD requirement compensate for yield losses in both rainfed (0–60 %) and irrigated (18–100 %) conditions with extra use of green water (5–7 %), blue water (2–14 %), and energy for irrigation (2–14 %). Reducing soil water evaporation benefits the overall WEF nexus by compensating for rainfed yield losses (25–82 %) with less use of blue water and energy consumption for irrigation. The combination of the above three adaptations has the potential to sustain agricultural production in water-scarce regions. If irrigation expansion is also included, the combined adaptation almost fully offsets agricultural production losses from climate change but significantly increases blue water use (143–174 %) and energy consumption for irrigation while reducing hydropower production (3 %). This study provides an approach to comprehensively evaluating agricultural adaptation strategies, in response to climate change, and insights to inform decision-makers. • Agricultural adaptations negatively/positively affect the water and energy sectors. • Reducing soil evaporation raises food and hydropower production while saving water. • Changing cultivars/sowing dates besides less soil water loss enhances food security. • Irrigation expansion is not the most effective adaptation to boost crop production. • Irrigation expansion uses plenty of blue water and reduces hydropower production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue Canadienne des Ressources Hydriques is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Summary: In recent years, climate change impacts on water resources sectors have been extensively documented. Anticipated changes range from more severe storms to more frequent floods and drought at regional scale. Pressure on water resources and hence on the environment will probably increase with the need of quality data for sustainable design of water resources projects. Therefore, for an optimal network design, hydrometric networks are to be reviewed periodically based on the information needs of the various end users and the perspective for future water resources development. This paper evaluates hydrometric networks to identify essential streamflow stations and critical areas (highly poor network density) within major watersheds across the different provinces of Canada using entropy theory. The method is applied to daily streamflow data and information coefficients such as marginal entropy, joint entropy and transinformation index are used for the identification of important stations as well as critical areas in the basin. The analysis results show that almost all Canadian main watersheds contain deficient hydrometric networks. The most deficient streamflow networks are identified in Alberta (North Saskatchewan, Oldman, and Red Deer basins), Northern Ontario (Hudson Bay basin), and the Northwest Territories. The information might prove to be helpful for decision makers to undertake cost-benefit analyses for hydrometric network updating in each region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Boreal wildfires are increasing in intensity, extent, and frequency, potentially intensifying carbon emissions and transitioning the region from a globally significant carbon sink to a source. The productive southern boreal forests of central Canada already experience relatively high frequencies of fire, and as such may serve as an analog of future carbon dynamics for more northern forests. Fire–carbon dynamics in southern boreal systems are relatively understudied, with limited investigation into the drivers of pre‐fire carbon stocks or subsequent combustion. As part of NASA's Arctic‐Boreal Vulnerability Experiment, we sampled 79 stands (47 burned, 32 unburned) throughout central Saskatchewan to characterize above‐ and belowground carbon stocks and combustion rates in relation to historical land use, vegetation characteristics, and geophysical attributes. We found southern boreal forests emitted an average of 3.3 ± 1.1 kg C/m2 from field sites. The emissions from southern boreal stands varied as a function of stand age, fire weather conditions, ecozone, and soil moisture class. Sites affected by historical timber harvesting had greater combustion rates due to faster carbon stock recovery rates than sites recovering from wildfire events, indicating that different boreal forest land use practices can generate divergent carbon legacy effects. We estimate the 2015 fire season in Saskatchewan emitted a total of 36.3 ± 15.0 Tg C, emphasizing the importance of southern boreal fires for regional carbon budgets. Using the southern boreal as an analog, the northern boreal may undergo fundamental shifts in forest structure and carbon dynamics, becoming dominated by stands <70 years old that hold 2–7 kg C/m2 less than current mature northern boreal stands. Our latitudinal approach reinforces previous studies showing that northern boreal stands are at a high risk of holding less carbon under changing disturbance conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finding sustainable pathways to efficiently allocate limited available water resources among increasingly competing water uses has become crucial due to climate-change-induced water shortages and increasing water demand. This has led to an urgent need for the inclusion of economic principles, models, and methods in water resources management. Although several studies have developed macro-economic models to evaluate the economic impacts of alternative water allocation strategies, many if not most ignore the hydrological boundaries of transboundary river basins. Furthermore, of those using input-output (IO) models, only a handful have applied supply-side IO models. In this paper, we present one of the first attempts to develop an inter-regional, supply-side IO modelling framework for a multi-jurisdictional, transboundary river basin to assess the direct and indirect economic impacts of water supply restrictions due to climate and policy change. Applying this framework to the Saskatchewan River Basin in Canada encompassing three provinces, we investigate the economic impacts of two different water supply restriction scenarios on the entire river basin and its sub-basins individually. We find that in the face of climate-change-induced water shortage, economic losses can be reduced by almost 50% by adopting appropriate management practices, including prioritization of water allocation, using alternative water sources, and water re-use technologies. • Sectoral water use is incorporated into a supply-side input-output model. • The model is spatially disaggregated into 6 sub-basins across 3 Canadian provinces. • The model evaluates the economic impacts of alternative water allocation policies. • The model results assist policymakers prepare efficient water management plans. • Adopting proper policies, potential economic drought losses can be reduced by 50%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long‐term trends in ecosystem resource use efficiencies (RUEs) and their controlling factors are key pieces of information for understanding how an ecosystem responds to climate change. We used continuous eddy covariance and microclimate data over the period 1999–2017 from a 120‐year‐old black spruce stand in central Saskatchewan, Canada, to assess interannual variability, long‐term trends, and key controlling factors of gross ecosystem production (GEP) and the RUEs of carbon (CUE = net primary production [NPP]/GEP), light (LUE = GEP/absorbed photosynthetic radiation [APAR]), and water (WUE = GEP/evapotranspiration [E]). At this site, annual GEP has shown an increasing trend over the 19 years (p < 0.01), which may be attributed to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Interannual variability in GEP, aside from its increasing trend, was most strongly related to spring temperatures. Associated with the significant increase in annual GEP were relatively small changes in NPP, APAR, and E, so that annual CUE showed a decreasing trend and annual LUE and WUE showed increasing trends over the 19 years. The long‐term trends in the RUEs were related to the increasing CO2 concentration. Further analysis of detrended RUEs showed that their interannual variation was impacted most strongly by air temperature. Two‐factor linear models combining CO2 concentration and air temperature performed well (R2~0.60) in simulating annual RUEs. LUE and WUE were positively correlated both annually and seasonally, while LUE and CUE were mostly negatively correlated. Our results showed divergent long‐term trends among CUE, LUE, and WUE and highlighted the need to account for the combined effects of climatic controls and the 'CO2 fertilization effect' on long‐term variations in RUEs. Since most RUE‐based models rely primarily on one resource limitation, the observed patterns of relative change among the three RUEs may have important implications for RUE‐based modeling of C fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite an overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change poses severe risks to human and natural systems, many young Canadian adults do not view it as a major issue. We analyzed secondary science curricula in each province for their coverage of climate change according to six core topics: physical climate mechanisms (“It’s climate”), observed increase in temperature (“It’s warming”), anthropogenic causes of warming (“It’s us”), scientific consensus (“Experts agree”), negative consequences associated with warming (“It’s bad”), and the possibility for avoiding the worst effects (“We can fix it”). We found that learning objectives tend to focus on knowledge of the first three elements, with little or no emphasis on scientific consensus, climate change impacts, or ways to address the issue. The provinces of Saskatchewan and Ontario provide the most comprehensive standards for climate change education, while Nova Scotia and New Brunswick provide the least. We conducted interviews with individuals responsible for curriculum design in six different provinces to understand how curriculum documents are developed and whether political controversies influence the writing process. Interviewees described a process relying on input from professionals, institutions, and members of the public where curriculum developers made decisions independent of political concerns. In some cases, efforts to provide balance may have led to a focus on social controversy, contrary to overwhelming scientific consensus. Curriculum documents are the basis for teacher instruction and textbook content; aligning these documents with the best possible evidence can improve student learning and engage the next generation of Canadians on the critical issue of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the beginning of the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Solid Precipitation Inter-Comparison Experiment (SPICE, 2013–2015), two precipitation measurement intercomparison sites were established in Saskatchewan to help assess the systematic bias in the automated gauge measurement of solid precipitation and the impact of wind on the undercatch of snow. Caribou Creek, located in the southern boreal forest, and Bratt's Lake, located in the southern plains, are a contribution to the international SPICE project but also to examine national and regional issues in measuring solid precipitation, including regional assessment of wind bias in precipitation gauges and windshield configurations commonly used in Canadian monitoring networks. Overlapping with WMO-SPICE, the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) Special Observation and Analysis Period (SOAP) occurred from 2014 to 2015, involving other enhanced observations and cold regions research projects in the same geographical domain as the Saskatchewan SPICE sites. Following SPICE, the two Saskatchewan sites continued to collect core meteorological data (temperature, humidity, wind speed, etc.) as well as precipitation observations via several automated gauge configurations, including the WMO automated reference and the Meteorological Service of Canada's (MSC) network gauges. In addition, manual snow surveys to collect snow cover depth, density, and water equivalent were completed over the duration of the winter periods at the northern Caribou Creek site. Starting in the fall of 2013, the core intercomparison precipitation and ancillary data continued to be collected through the winter of 2017. Automated observations were obtained at a temporal resolution of 1 min, subjected to a rigorous quality control process, and aggregated to a resolution of 30 min. The manual snow surveys at Caribou Creek were typically performed every second week during the SPICE field program with monthly surveys following the end of the SPICE intercomparison period. The Saskatchewan SPICE data are available at 10.18164/63773b5b-5529-4b1e-9150-10acb84d59f0 (Smith and Yang, 2018). The data collected at the Saskatchewan SPICE sites will continue to be useful for transfer function testing, numerical weather prediction and hydrological forecasting verification, ground truth for remote-sensing applications, as well as providing reference precipitation measurements for other concurrent research applications in the cold regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South Saskatchewan River Basin is one of Canada's most threatened watersheds, with water supplies in most subbasins over-allocated. In 2013, stakeholders representing irrigation districts, the environment, and municipalities collaborated with researchers and consultants to explore opportunities to improve the resiliency of the management of the Oldman and South Saskatchewan River subbasins. Streamflow scenarios for 2025-2054 were constructed by the novel approach of regressing historical river flows against indices of large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate oscillations to derive statistical streamflow models, which were then run using projected climate indices from global climate models. The impacts of some of the most extreme scenarios were simulated using the hydrologic mass-balance model Operational Analysis and Simulation of Integrated Systems (OASIS). Based on stakeholder observations, the project participants proposed and evaluated potential risk management and adaption strategies, e.g., modifying existing infrastructure, building new infrastructure, changing operations to supplement environmental flows, reducing demand, and sharing supply. The OASIS model was applied interactively at live modeling sessions with stakeholders to explore practical adaptation strategies. Our results, which serve as recommendations for policy makers, showed that forecast-based rationing together with new expanded storage could dramatically reduce water shortages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International trade is often viewed as environmentally unproblematic, even beneficial. This article challenges this view, using new trade data from the Food and Agriculture Organization to document inefficiencies in global food trade and to question the prioritization of economics over environment. It can be difficult to identify the effects of macro-level phenomena, such as trade agreements and climate change, on people’s lives at the micro-level. This article uses qualitative research conducted with farm women in the Canadian prairies to illustrate the intersection of policy, climate change, and their gendered effects in everyday life. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) is a vital and essential resource for the three Canadian prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The cumulative impacts of past and future development combined with the realities of climate change raise new questions about the current regime of water governance in the region. At present, multiple agencies affect different aspects of water governance across the SRB. This study is a preliminary assessment, based on key informant interviews, of existing water governance efficacy in the SRB. Using a range of probing questions, key informant perceptions regarding the strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities respecting water governance in the SRB are uncovered. The findings of this study suggest that the advantages of the current fragmented, multiagency regime of water governance in the SRB are outnumbered by the disadvantages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extraction of bitumen from the Athabasca oil sands is rapidly expanding, and emission of sulphur and nitrogen oxides has substantially increased. To determine whether lakes downwind of this development in northwest Saskatchewan have been detrimentally impacted since development of the oil sands, a paleolimnological assessment of ten lakes was carried out. Analysis of diatom valves and inferences of diatom-inferred pH indicated that emissions have not resulted in widespread chronic acidification of acid-sensitive lakes ~80-250 km east and northeast of the oil sands development around Fort McMurray and Fort Mackay. However, one of the closest sites to the development indicated a slight decline in diatom-inferred pH, but the two next closest sites, both of which had higher alkalinity, did not show any evidence of acidification. There were also no consistent trends in the concentration or flux of total or individual priority pollutants including lead, mercury, copper, zinc and vanadium. The sedimentation rates in most lakes increased since the mid-1900s, along with increased flux of both diatoms and scaled chrysophytes. Subtle changes in the species assemblages of diatoms and increased flux of diatoms and chrysophyte scales are consistent with recent climate change in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses a study that assessed potential impacts of climate change on biofuel wheat production in southern Saskatchewan using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-Cropping System Model (DSSAT-CSM). The model simulated biomass and grain yield under three climate change scenarios in the 2050s. DSSAT-CSM predicted increases in biomass and grain yield but model modification is needed to improve the prediction of climate change impacts on biofuel wheat production.

This article investigates linkages between soil conditions, farm-level vulnerability, adaptation, and rural migration during periods of drought. It begins by reviewing existing literature on climate adaptation in agricultural populations and on relationships between soil and rural migration. This is followed by a detailed case study of rural migration patterns that emerged in the Swift Current district of Saskatchewan, Canada, during a period of extended droughts and severe economic conditions in the 1930s. Using a combination of secondary literature, interviews with surviving first-hand observers and GIS modeling, the study shows how the interacting effects of household indebtedness, social capital, government relief programs, and farm-level soil quality helped stimulate population loss in many rural townships across the study area. The study focuses particularly on the role played by differential soil quality across the Swift Current district and how farms situated on sandier soils were typically more sensitive and vulnerable to drought than those situated on clay soils. Higher-than-average rates of population loss were associated with townships containing areas of poorer quality agricultural soils, an association replicable using GIS software and existing soil and population datasets. The findings from the case study are discussed within the context of the broader existing literature, and suggestions are provided on future directions for research, planning, and modeling to assist planners and policymakers concerned with rural adaptation and migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Wavelet and rank correlation analysis were used to identify the links between primary Pacific climate variability modes and low-frequency hydroclimatic variability in the South Saskatchewan River basin (SSRB) of southern Alberta. The April–September average streamflow shows strong interdecadal oscillations with dominant scales of 19–22, 41–42, and 62 yr whereas statistically significant wavelet power in the interannual scale was organized on a background scale of approximately 20–25 yr. At interannual scales, strong coherency is observed between streamflow and the Niño-3 index prior to the 1940s, and in the 1950s, 1970s, and 1980s. However, a change in the phase difference from near 0° in the 1950s to near 180° in the 1980s indicates that the relationship between streamflow and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not consistent. Streamflow–Pacific–North America pattern (PNA) and streamflow–Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) relationships at interannual scales also exhibit similar inconsistencies in phase difference. At interdecadal scales, PDO and streamflow exhibited consistently strong coherence with a stable phase difference of 180° for scales >20 yr. From the period of 1913–2001, the median partial correlation between streamflow and PDO|Niño-3 (read as PDO given Niño-3) was -0.36, whereas it was zero between streamflow and Niño-3|PDO, suggesting that PDO is the primary mode of importance in streamflow variability and predictability in the SSRB. Precipitation variability was also dominated by interdecadal oscillations; however, there is less spatial coherence for dominant scales. Correlations between the basin’s winter precipitation and climate indices are also weaker than with streamflow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatland-margin habitats with organic matter accumulation of 40–150 cm make up a significant but poorly quantified portion of Canada’s boreal forest region. Spanning the transition between non-wetland forest and fen proper, these ecosystems represent a zone of complex environmental and vegetation change, yet little is known about their ecological function or development. We here use vegetation and macrofossil analysis, traditional 14C, bomb-spike 14C, and 210Pb dating to investigate the development, organic matter accumulation, and recent vegetation history of peat margin communities at two sites in central Saskatchewan, Canada. Although similar in general shape, bomb-spike 14C and 210Pb chronologies show limited agreement in three of the four profiles examined, with 210Pb generally producing younger ages than 14C. Peat initiation and long-term organic matter accumulation at the Old Black Spruce (OBS) transect were probably driven mainly by the dynamics of Sphagnum, whereas at the Sandhill Fen (SF) transect, they were controlled by water level fluctuations in the neighboring fen. Bryophyte macrofossils suggest a recent drying of the vegetation surface at both sites, most likely triggered by regional drought in the late 1950s and 1960s. At OBS, the shift from Sphagnum- to feather moss-dominated communities continued in the 1990s, possibly reflecting effects of direct disturbance on local drainage patterns. Overall, our results suggest that community composition and C dynamics of peat-margin swamps respond dynamically to climatic and hydrologic fluctuations. However, uncertainties regarding the reliability of different chronologies limit our ability to link observed community changes to specific causal events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. A lagged, density-dependent relationship between survival of early instars and host-tree condition is revealed during outbreaks of spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. Persistent damage to hosts leads to deterioration of the stand. 2. Resource limitation affects survival during early-instar dispersal of spruce budworm. Impediments to distinguishing these events with estimates of survival were overcome with a simple model that describes the dispersal and survival processes. The model was used to analyse a recent 15-year population series from Black Sturgeon Lake and two historical datasets from Green River, in Canada. 3. Defoliation-induced damage to the trees resulted in increased losses of spring-emerging larvae that are dispersing in search of feeding sites. Losses were further exacerbated by biotic factors such as maternal fecundity, rates of infection by the pathogen, Nosema fumiferanae, and by weather-related effects on the foraging period. 4. Survival of early-stage budworm larvae in persistent outbreaks declined and the likelihood of other density-related factors such as rate of mortality from natural enemies increased. These results may reconcile outstanding differences in interpretation of the role of the forest resource in spruce budworm population dynamics and point to a common process linking the dynamics of other well-known budworm species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon and water budgets of boreal and temperate broadleaf forests are sensitive to interannual climatic variability and are likely to respond to climate change. This study analyses 9 years of eddy-covariance data from the Boreal Ecosystem Research and Monitoring Sites (BERMS) Southern Old Aspen site in central Saskatchewan, Canada and characterizes the primary climatic controls on evapotranspiration, net ecosystem production ( FNEP), gross ecosystem photosynthesis ( P) and ecosystem respiration ( R). The study period was dominated by two climatic extremes: extreme warm and cool springs, which produced marked contrasts in the canopy duration, and a severe, 3-year drought. Annual FNEP varied among years from 55 to 367 g C m−2 (mean 172, SD 94). Interannual variability in FNEP was controlled primarily by factors that affected the R/ P ratio, which varied between 0.74 and 0.96 (mean 0.87, SD 0.06). Canopy duration enhanced P and FNEP with no apparent effect on R. The fraction of annual photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) that was absorbed by the canopy foliage varied from 38% in late leaf-emergence years to 51% in early leaf-emergence years. Photosynthetic light-use efficiency (mean 0.0275, SD 0.026 mol C mol−1 photons) was relatively constant during nondrought years but declined with drought intensity to a minimum of 0.0228 mol C mol−1 photons during the most severe drought year. The impact of drought on FNEP varied with drought intensity. Years of mild-to-moderate drought suppressed R while having little effect on P, so that FNEP was enhanced. Years of severe drought suppressed both R and P, causing either little change or a subtle reduction in FNEP. The analysis produced new insights into the dominance of canopy duration as the most important biophysical control on FNEP. The results suggested a simple conceptual model for annual FNEP in boreal deciduous forests. When water is not limiting, annual P is controlled by canopy duration via its influence on absorbed PAR at constant light-use efficiency. Water stress suppresses P, by reducing light-use efficiency, and R, by limiting growth and/or suppressing microbial respiration. The high photosynthetic light-use efficiency showed this site to be a highly productive boreal deciduous forest, with properties similar to many temperate deciduous forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Borehole temperature depth profiles are commonly used to infer time variations in the ground surface temperature on centennial time scales. We compare different procedures to obtain a regional ground surface temperature history (GSTH) from an ensemble of borehole temperature depth profiles. We address in particular the question of selecting profiles that are not contaminated by non climatic surface perturbations and we compare the joint inversion of all the profiles with the average of individual inversions. Very few profiles of the Canadian data set meet the selection criteria (e.g. only 13 out of 73 profiles in Manitoba and Saskatchewan were retained). We show that the resolution and the stability of the inversion of selected profiles are much improved over those for a complete data set. When profiles have been selected, the average GSTH of individual inversions and the GSTH of the joint inversion are almost identical. This is not observed when the entire data set is inverted: the average of individual inversions is different from the joint inversion. We also show that the joint inversion of very noisy data sets does not improve the resolution but, on the contrary, causes strong instabilities in the inversion. When the profiles that are affected by noise can not be eliminated, averaging of the individual inversions yields the most stable result, but with very poor resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2001–03, continuous eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) flux were made above mature boreal aspen, black spruce, and jack pine forests in Saskatchewan, Canada, prior to and during a 3−year drought. During the 1st drought year, ecosystem respiration ( R) was reduced at the aspen site due to the drying of surface soil layers. Gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) increased as a result of a warm spring and a slow decrease of deep soil moisture. These conditions resulted in the highest annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in the 9 years of flux measurements at this site. During 2002 and 2003, a reduction of 6% and 34% in NEP, respectively, compared to 2000 was observed as the result of reductions in both R and GEP, indicating a conservative response to the drought. Although the drought affected most of western Canada, there was considerable spatial variability in summer rainfall over the 100−km extent of the study area; summer rainfalls in 2001 and 2002 at the two conifer sites minimized the impact of the drought. In 2003, however, precipitation was similarly low at all three sites. Due to low topographic position and consequent poor drainage at the black spruce site and the coarse soil with low water-holding capacity at the jack pine site almost no reduction in R, GEP, and NEP was observed at these two sites. This study shows that the impact of drought on carbon sequestration by boreal forest ecosystems strongly depends on rainfall distribution, soil characteristics, topography, and the presence of vegetation that is well adapted to these conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information regarding long term hydrological variability is critical for the effective management of surface water resources. In the Canadian Prairie region, growing dependence on major river systems for irrigation and other consumptive uses has resulted in an increasing vulnerability to hydrological drought and growing interprovincial tension. This study presents the first dendrochronological records of streamflow for Canadian Prairie rivers. We present 1,113-year, 522-year, and 325-year reconstructions of total water year (October to September) streamflow for the North Saskatchewan, South Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan Rivers, respectively. The reconstructions indicate relatively high flows during the 20th Century and provide evidence of past prolonged droughts. Low flows during the 1840s correspond with aridity that extended over much of the western United States. Similarly, an exceptional period of prolonged low flow conditions, approximately 900 A.D. to 1300 A.D., is coincident with evidence of sustained drought across central and western North America. The 16th Century megadrought of the western United States and Mexico, however, does not appear to have had a major impact on the Canadian rivers. The dendrohydrological records illustrate the risks involved if future water policy and infrastructure development in the Canadian Prairies are based solely on records of streamflow variability over the historical record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractTo evaluate the carbon budget of a boreal deciduous forest, we measured CO2 fluxes using the eddy covariance technique above an old aspen (OA) forest in Prince Albert National Park, Saskatchewan, Canada, in 1994 and 1996 as part of the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS). We found that the OA forest is a strong carbon sink sequestering 200 ± 30 and 130 ± 30 g C m–2 y–1 in 1994 and 1996, respectively. These measurements were 16–45% lower than an inventory result that the mean carbon increment was about 240 g C m–2 y–1 between 1919 and 1994, mainly due to the advanced age of the stand at the time of eddy covariance measurements. Assuming these rates to be representative of Canadian boreal deciduous forests (area ≈ 3 × 105 km2), it is likely they can sequester 40–60 Tg C y–1, which is 2–3% of the missing global carbon sink. The difference in carbon sequestration by the OA forest between 1994 and 1996 was mainly caused by the difference in leaf emergence date. The monthly mean air temperature during March–May 1994, was 4.8 °C higher than in 1996, resulting in leaf emergence being 18–24 days earlier in 1994 than 1996. The warm spring and early leaf emergence in 1994 enabled the aspen forest to exploit the long days and high solar irradiance of mid-to-late spring. In contrast, the 1996 OA growing season included only 32 days before the summer solstice. The earlier leaf emergence in 1994 resulted 16% more absorbed photosynthetically active radiation and a 90 g C m–2 y–1 increase in photosynthesis than 1996. The concomitant increase in respiration in the warmer year (1994) was only 20 g C m–2 y–1. These results show that an important control on carbon sequestration by boreal deciduous forests is spring temperature, via the influence of air temperature on the timing of leaf emergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]