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Considerable evidence has shown that social class has a positive relationship with well-being. However, little research has examined this connection in detail, particularly as it relates to the context of adolescence. The present study builds on the framework of Self-Determination Theory, to delineate the psychological mechanism underlying this relationship in adolescents. Study 1 explored the correlation between objective social class and hedonic well-being with national adolescent data (n = 944) from the China Family Panel Studies. The results showed that objective social class was positively correlated with hedonic well-being. Study 2 more fully examined the correlation and potential mechanism of the relationship between social class and hedonic/eudaimonic well-being among 625 adolescents. The results confirmed that social class is correlated with hedonic/eudaimonic well-being and that basic psychological needs satisfaction (BPNS) fully mediates the relationships between them. These findings emphasize the role of BPNS in this relationship among adolescents.

The uneven changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET) in response to temperature rise are called the 'evapotranspiration paradox' phenomenon, which is expected to intensify further under a warming climate. In this paper, we explored the spatial–temporal changes in the future 'evapotranspiration paradox' phenomenon over China and its 10 major river sub‐regions under different climate change scenarios. Thus, this paper uses four global climate model outputs under seven shared socioeconomic pathway‐based scenarios (SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, SSP4‐3.4, SSP4‐6.0 and SSP5‐8.5) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Considering the latest IPCC's 6th Assessment Report (AR6), this research emphasizes the 2021–2040 (near‐term), 2041–2060 (mid‐term) and 2081–2100 (long‐term) periods to anticipate the 'evapotranspiration paradox' phenomenon. In this study, PET is estimated based on the modified Penman–Monteith (P‐M) method (considering CO2). Furthermore, the paradox phenomenon in this study is defined considering two pivotal conditions: the surface temperature increases but the evaporation decreases (Type I), and the temperature decreases but the evaporation still tends to increase (Type II). The results show that there were only Type I 'evapotranspiration paradoxes' that existed in the historical period, which were dominant especially before the 1990s. Nearly 50% of the areas experienced the Type I 'evapotranspiration paradox' phenomenon that occurred during 1975–1994 and 1995–2014. Spatially, it covered 100% of the area of the Southeast River (SER) and the Liaohe River (LR) during 1975–1994 and the area of the SER, the HAR, the HHR and the LR during 1995–2014. In the future, the interdecadal growth rate of PET in China is projected to be the highest under the SSP5‐8.5 and the lowest under the SSP3‐7.0 with spatial variation. Importantly, the largest areas of approximately 36% and 45% with the Type I phenomenon are inclined to occur under the SSP1‐1.9 and SSP4‐6.0, respectively, over the long‐term period (2081–2100). The area with the Type I phenomenon will be less than 20% in the near‐term, and it is less than 12% in the mid‐term period. For the Type II evapotranspiration paradox, the uppermost 45% of the area is expected to experience the Type II phenomenon under SSP1‐1.9 during the mid‐term period, while it is 30% under SSP1‐2.6 during the long‐term period. However, this study's findings provide the scientific basis for formulating adaptation and mitigation strategies to combat 'evapotranspiration paradox'‐related extremes at regional scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation fluctuations are continuously threatening the environment and may cause huge economic losses. In present study, the precipitation over China has been evaluated under five principal shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios during 2015–2099 based on eight CMIP6 models bias-corrected by the method of Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Functions. The results showed that (1) the simulated precipitation in China was in good agreement with observed precipitation for the eight CMIP6 models during 1961–2014, especially for the UKESM1-0-LL and MIROC6. However, the simulated annual mean precipitation has been significantly overvalued in the Southwest River basin (> 50%), while it was undervalued in the higher elevations of the Northwest River basin (< − 60%); (2) the annual mean precipitation will show a fluctuating upward trend during 2015–2099 over China under all the SSPs scenarios for the eight CMIP6 models. The rate of precipitation increase over north China will be higher than that in south China, especially in the Northwest River basin (reach 57.44% in the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 for the ensemble mean). This increase of the precipitation in north China might alleviate the shortage of water there, but will not change the pattern of more rain in the south and less in the north; (3) in the southeastern basins, the precipitation of the multi-model ensemble (MME) and MIROC6 during 2011–2020 will be lower than that of 1961–2010 (− 6.53 to − 0.06%) under all SSPs scenarios. While the precipitation will increase obviously under all the SSPs scenarios, especially for the SSP5-8.5 scenario after the year of 2060; (4) the bias of the MME was much lower than that of individual CMIP6 models, and the bias of lower SSPs scenarios will be relatively lower. Generally, uncertainty ranges of precipitation fluctuations in north China (15.31–79.26%) will be higher than those in south China (16.06–7.55%). These findings revealed the projections and uncertainties of CMIP6 precipitation over China, which will be helpful for a better understanding of the future evolution of precipitation in China at large scale and in other regions of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beginning in 2016, all couples in China were allowed to have two children without any restrictions. This paper provides population and economic projections under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and three fertility policies. By replacing the one‐child policy with the two‐child policy, the population is predicted to continue growing until 2025–2035, with a peak of approximately 1.39–1.42 billion, and then to decline under four SSPs, with the exception of the fragmented world SSP3. As a result, the two‐child policy will lead to mitigation of the pressure from labor shortages and aging problems to a certain extent. In addition, an increase in working‐age people with higher education level relative to projections based on the one‐child policy will lead to an increase in gross domestic product by approximately 38.1–43.9% in the late 21st century. However, labor shortages and aging problems are inevitable, and the proportion of elderly in China will be greater than 14% and 21% by approximately 2025 and 2035, respectively. Full liberalization of fertility is expected to reduce the share of elderly people by 0.7–1.0% and to lead to an increase in gross domestic product by 5.3–6.7% relative to the two‐child policy in the late 21st century. The full liberalization of fertility policies is recommended, supplemented by increases in pension and child‐rearing funds, improvement in the quality of health services for females and children, and extension of compulsory education to meet the needs of an aged society. Plain Language Summary: The one‐child policy in China has been replaced by the two‐child policy since 2016. What might the population and economy change if the one‐child policy is continued in the 21st century? What can China benefit from the fertility policy changes? Is it necessary to allow people to choose their family size in China? We conducted multipopulation policies and multisocioeconomic development pathways combined analysis to explore the effects of fertility policy changes on population and economy in China. We found that population size by the late 21st century might be 28% less than that in 2010 at the one‐child policy, and share of elderly (aged 65+) might be 49%. The implementation of the two‐child policy can mitigate the labor shortages and aging problems to a certain extent, and the increased working‐age population with higher education level can lead to a 38.1–43.9% increase in gross domestic product in the late 21st century. A further 0.7–1.0% reduction in elderly share of the total population and 5.3–6.7% increase in gross domestic product is projected in the late 21st century at the "full relaxation" policy. We believe that introduction of effects from fertility policy changes on socioeconomy can deliver useful information to decision makers. Key Points: The integrated effects of population policies and socioeconomic pathways on the population structure and economy are exploredThe population bust in China caused by the one‐child policy will be relieved after the two‐child policy, as indicated by all the SSPsFull relaxation of fertility control is recommended with the simultaneous implementation of other social policies (e.g., pension funds) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adverse impacts and increasing economic losses from tropical cyclones (TCs) are a major focus in respect to the potential global warming of 1.5 °C or even 2.0 °C. Based on observed meteorological data and county‐scale loss records, loss‐inducing rainfall and wind speed thresholds are identified using the regional climate model CCLM to project future TC events in China. An established damage function is combined with future gross domestic product predictions under five shared socio‐economic pathways. At the 1.5 °C warming level, normalized TC losses will be four times higher than in the reference period (1986–2005). At the 2.0 °C warming level, a sevenfold increase is projected. Relative to the 1.5 °C warming level, TCs will become more frequent under the 2.0 °C scenario, especially along the southeast coast of China. Nearly 0.2–0.5% of the increase in gross domestic product might be offset by TC losses between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming levels, and the single highest TC loss at 2.0 °C may double that at 1.5 °C, with a larger affected area and more severe rainstorms and wind speeds. Rainfall is attributed more often to TC losses than wind speed. Limiting global warming at 1.5 °C would avoid an estimated increase in TC losses of more than 120 billion CNY annually. Based on a simple linear regression approach, normalized event‐based (a) and annual aggregated (b) TC losses in China will be four times higher at the 1.5 °C warming level than in the reference period (1986–2005). Relative to the 1.5 °C warming level, TCs will become more frequent under the 2.0 °C scenario, especially along the southeast coast of China. Limiting global warming at 1.5 °C would avoid an estimated increase in TC losses of more than 120 billion CNY annually. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the intensity, area and duration of future droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPI and SPEI are used to evaluate the simulation ability of drought characteristics with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The projected intensity and duration of future drought events are analyzed for the period 2016-2050 under three different respective concentration pathways (RCPs). The simulated and projected drought events are analyzed by applying the intensity-area-duration method. The results show that CCLM has a robust capability to simulate the average drought characteristics, while some regional disparities are not well captured, mainly the simulation of more drought events of shorter duration in Northwest China. For the future period 2016-2050, more intense dryness conditions are projected for China. An increase in evapotranspiration is found all over China, while a reduction in precipitation is apparent in the southern river basins. The increase in evapotranspiration plays an important role in the changes of future droughts over the northern river basins and southern river basins. Under RCP2.6, drought events of longer duration and with higher frequency are projected for the southwest and southeast of China. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a continuing tendency to more dry conditions is projected along a dryness band stretching from the southwest to the northeast of China. More frequent drought events of longer duration are projected in the southwestern river basins. For all future droughts, larger extents are projected, especially for events with long-term duration. The projected long-term drought events will occur more often and more severe than during the baseline period, and their central locations will likely shift towards Southeast China. The results of this study can be used to initiate and strengthen drought adaptation measures at regional and local scale, especially in the south of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the intensity, area, and duration of droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI was calculated on monthly data for 530 meteorological stations in China for the period 1960-2013. The time series were analyzed for ten major hydrological regions of China, respectively. The relationships between the intensity and the area of droughts for a specific duration were analyzed by the intensity-area-duration method. The results show that areas with a significant trend in dryness can be found in a band reaching from the southwest to the northeast of China, while areas with significant trends in wetness are especially detected in the northern river basins in recent decades. In addition, for recent years (2000-2013), most of the ten major hydrological regions show opposite trends in the SPI when compared to the whole study period (1960-2013) except for the central and southwestern parts of China. This dryness/wetness trends are related to the intensity and duration of drought events, which have been stronger and lasted longer in the detected dryness band except for some northern river basins. A regional shift of drought centers is found from the northwest to the southeast within Central China. Moreover, a decreasing trend in drought area is observed, which might be related to the regional changes in precipitation pattern associated with the atmosphere-ocean interaction. Changes in the SST of the Tropical Pacific and the Tropical Indian Ocean may have resulted in frequent severe drought events of small areal extent in the central and southwestern parts of China. For the study period, the most severe droughts that covered large areas mainly occurred in the north and west of China during the mid-to-late twentieth century. However, in the early twenty-first century, the most severe droughts were located in the southwest of China covering areas less than 0.7 million km. Conclusively, drought areas show a decreasing tendency, while more intense droughts of longer duration have been experienced, especially in the south of China, in the last decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has experienced a huge socioeconomic advancement over the past few decades, resulting in great change in land use and land cover. To date, negligible attention has been given to examining the socioeconomic changes in the context of land-use change, especially from a futuristic standpoint. However, motivated by China's latest carbon neutrality target, this study analyzes the prospective changes in socioeconomic status, and carbon dioxide emission in the context of future land-use change, focusing on three future periods: 2026–2030 (carbon dioxide peak phase), 2056–2060 (carbon-neutral phase), and 2080–2099 (long-term period). In this regard, recently published land-use products under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-based scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) as part of the CMIP6, as well as the projected GDP and population under five socioeconomic scenarios are used. To estimate socioeconomic change over prominent land-use types (urban), we combined five socioeconomic scenarios with seven corresponding SSPs-based land-use change scenarios (SSP1 with SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6; SSP2 with SSP2-4.5; SSP3 with SSP3-7.0; SSP4 with SSP4-3.4 and SSP4-6.0; and SSP5 with SSP5-8.5 scenarios). Our results reveal that rapid urban land expansion in the future is the most dominant aspect in China. In the carbon neutrality phase (2056–2060), urban land is expected to expand ~80% more than that of the reference period (1995–2014). In the spatial aspect, the expansion of urban land is mainly prominent in the eastern and central parts of China. For socioeconomic changes, the most prominent increase in the urban population is estimated at 630.8% under SSP5-8.5 for the 2056–2060 period compared to the reference period. Regarding GDP for the urban area, industrial GDP will be higher than service GDP in the carbon emission peak phase (2026–2030), but it is projected to be overtaken by service GDP for the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) and long-term periods (2080–2099). Further, the CO2 emission in China was found to increase with intensified urban land for the historical period (1995–2019). In the future, the largest increase in CO2 emission from the urban area is anticipated under SSP5-8.5 in the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) phase, while CO2 emission will largely decline after (2056–2060) under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, and SSP4-3.4. Importantly, population change is expected to be the most predominant factor in future urban land expansion in China. These findings highlight the importance of well-governed urban-land development as a key measure to achieve China's carbon neutrality goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • National scale landslide susceptibility models for China. • Landslide data biases and their influence. • Importance of incomplete heterogeneous landslide data. • The generalized additive mixed model employed as counterbalance. China is one of the countries where landslides caused the most fatalities in the last decades. The threat that landslide disasters pose to people might even be greater in the future, due to climate change and the increasing urbanization of mountainous areas. A reliable national-scale rainfall induced landslide susceptibility model is therefore of great relevance in order to identify regions more and less prone to landsliding as well as to develop suitable risk mitigating strategies. However, relying on imperfect landslide data is inevitable when modelling landslide susceptibility for such a large research area. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of incomplete landslide data on national scale statistical landslide susceptibility modeling for China. In this context, it is aimed to explore the benefit of mixed effects modelling to counterbalance associated bias propagations. Six influencing factors including lithology, slope, soil moisture index, mean annual precipitation, land use and geological environment regions were selected based on an initial exploratory data analysis. Three sets of influencing variables were designed to represent different solutions to deal with spatially incomplete landslide information: Set 1 (disregards the presence of incomplete landslide information), Set 2 (excludes factors related to the incompleteness of landslide data), Set 3 (accounts for factors related to the incompleteness via random effects). The variable sets were then introduced in a generalized additive model (GAM: Set 1 and Set 2) and a generalized additive mixed effect model (GAMM: Set 3) to establish three national-scale statistical landslide susceptibility models: models 1, 2 and 3. The models were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) given by spatially explicit and non-spatial cross-validation. The spatial prediction pattern produced by the models were also investigated. The results show that the landslide inventory incompleteness had a substantial impact on the outcomes of the statistical landslide susceptibility models. The cross-validation results provided evidence that the three established models performed well to predict model-independent landslide information with median AUROCs ranging from 0.8 to 0.9. However, although Model 1 reached the highest AUROCs within non-spatial cross-validation (median of 0.9), it was not associated with the most plausible representation of landslide susceptibility. The Model 1 modelling results were inconsistent with geomorphological process knowledge and reflected a large extent the underlying data bias. The Model 2 susceptibility maps provided a less biased picture of landslide susceptibility. However, a lower predicted likelihood of landslide occurrence still existed in areas known to be underrepresented in terms of landslide data (e.g., the Kuenlun Mountains in the northern Tibetan Plateau). The non-linear mixed-effects model (Model 3) reduced the impact of these biases best by introducing bias-describing variables as random effects. Among the three models, Model 3 was selected as the best national-scale susceptibility model for China as it produced the most plausible portray of rainfall induced landslide susceptibility and the highest spatially explicit predictive performance (median AUROC of spatial cross validation 0.84) compared to the other two models (median AUROCs of 0.81 and 0.79, respectively). We conclude that ignoring landslide inventory-based incompleteness can entail misleading modelling results and that the application of non-linear mixed-effect models can reduce the propagation of such biases into the final results for very large areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: In this study the Penman–Monteith reference evapotranspiration, pan evaporation measured by a 20cm pan, and pan coefficient, i.e., the ratio of Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration to pan evaporation, at 150 meteorological stations during 1960–2000 in the Changjiang (Yangtze River) catchment in China are calculated, compared and regionally mapped. Their spatial distributions and temporal variations are examined and the causes for the variations are discussed. The spatial distributions of temporal trends in the reference evapotranspiration as well as in the meteorological variables that determine evapotranspiration are analyzed. The contributions of various meteorological variables to the temporal trend detected in the reference evapotranspiration and pan evaporation are then determined. The results show that: (1) the spatial distributions of reference evapotranspiration and pan evaporation are roughly similar. Spatial correlation coefficients between the reference evapotranspiration and the pan evaporation are high for both the seasonal and annual values. The temporal correlation between the two estimates is higher in the lower (humid) region than in the upper (semi-arid) region. The spatial distribution pattern of the pan coefficient is significantly influenced by wind speed and relative humidity in the region. Higher values of the pan coefficient were found in the central area of the catchment with a relatively high humidity (as compared with the upper area) and a very low wind speed (as compared with other areas); (2) for the whole catchment, there is a significant decreasing trend in both the reference evapotranspiration and the pan evaporation, which is mainly caused by a significant decrease in the net total radiation and to a lesser extent by a significant decrease in the wind speed over the catchment. No temporal trend is detected for the pan coefficient; (3) sensitivity analysis shows that the reference evapotranspiration is most sensitive to the net total radiation, followed by relative humidity, air temperature and wind speed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Tropical cyclones caused significant national economic losses in China in recent decades. For alleviating these hydro-meteorological disasters, the spatiotemporal distributions of losses per economic sector and the associated rainfall and wind patterns of such influential tropical cyclones (ITCs) were estimated for China. Based on multiple reference databases and socio-economic data, ITCs losses for major economic sectors have been deduced. The obtained information plays an important role in the projection of sector losses of future ITCs affecting China. The total economic losses have been split into five major sector loss categories, comprising agriculture, industry, construction, transport, and business & others. About 37% of the total loss occurred in the industrial sector, occupying the largest proportion. High values were primarily distributed in the urban agglomerations of the Pearl River and Yangtze River deltas and along the mainland coast of the Taiwan Strait, with over 1 billion CNY per year. Significant upward trends are found in all of sectors except in agriculture, which shows a decreasing tendency for the period of 1984–2014. The years with the highest losses occurred in the mid-1990s, mid-2000s, and early 2010s, consistently affecting all sectors in all regions along the mainland coast. The southern part of China was most frequently affected by ITCs, with increasing trends in sector losses for most areas. The relationships between wind speed, rainfall and sector losses can be presented in the form of an exponential function. The results show that rainfall is more positively correlated with ITCs losses than wind speed. Here, the industry sector shows the largest correlation coefficient and highest growth rate, whereas the construction sector shows the lowest. In future, research should pay more attention on impacts of heavy rainfall triggered by ITCs in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A standard methodology is needed to recognize potentially suitable areas for sustainable bioenergy crop production. This facilitates better identification of promising crops and cropping systems, logistical and economic studies, and work needed to meet regulatory criteria. A possible approach is built upon three layers of internationally available spatial data: (1) degrading and abandoned areas, (2) potentially suitable land cover classes, (3) exclusion zones such as nature reserves and areas of high biodiversity. For China, areas identified as potentially suitable range from 1.2 to 6.0% of the national territory, depending on different levels of statistical confidence in degrading area status and allowable limits of terrestrial carbon. Verification on the ground showed that about 60% of points tested conformed to the remote suitability assessment in the scenario, which represents the results for the combination of all degrading areas and a terrestrial carbon stock limit of 200 t ha−1. A top-down approach is useful in framing potentially suitable locations, but a complementary bottom-up analysis is still required to ultimately identify areas for sustainable bio-fuel production. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Recently available hydrological data from Hukou station at the junction of the Poyang Lake with the Yangtze River along with other data from stations in the Poyang Lake basin have allowed further examination and understanding of the basin effect (basin discharge generated by rainfall) and the Yangtze River blocking effect on variations of the Poyang Lake level and floods at annual to decadal scales. Major results show that the basin effect has played a primary role influencing the level of Poyang Lake and development of severe floods, while the Yangtze River played a complementary role of blocking outflows from the lake. In most cases, only when the basin effect weakened did the river effect become large, a relationship indicating that the river’s blocking effect diminishes when the lake level is high from receiving large amount of basin discharge, albeit a few exceptions to this relationship occurred when river flow also was elevated from receiving large rainfall discharges in upstream areas. Moreover, the basin effect has become stronger in the period 1960–2003 in accordance with the increase of warm season rainfall in the Poyang Lake basin. In particular, large increases of the basin’s rainfall in the 1990s corresponded to the most severe floods (in 1998, 1995, and 1992) of the last 4 decades. The strong increase of warm season rainfall in the Poyang Lake basin in the 1990s is consistent with the recent southward shift of major warm season rain bands in eastern China. Results of this study provide a utility for improving predictions of the Poyang Lake level and floods, which affect a population of about 10 million. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, future drought characteristics (frequency, duration and intensity) over China are analysed by using four climate models from CMIP6 under the seven SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, SSP370, and SSP585) for three defined periods of 2021–2040 (near-term), 2041–2060 (mid-term) and 2081–2100 (long-term). The corresponding four climate models output from CMIP5 are also used to conduct a comparison analysis between CMIP5 and CMIP6 to address the improvements added to CMIP6 in terms of drought identification. The drought characteristics are identified by applying the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 12-month timescale and run theory. The results show that CMIP6 has a robust capability to capture historical (1986–2005) drought characteristics. For the future period of 2021–2040, the decrease in precipitation and increase in potential evapotranspiration will lead to continuous dry conditions in the upper and middle Yangtze River basin and eastern Pearl River basin. Relative to the reference period, drought events will be more frequent and severe with longer durations in the Northwest River basins and middle Yangtze River basin. Furthermore, higher emissions signify a greater increase in drought frequency and intensity in the long-term period. Except for the SSP585 scenario, the lower emission scenario corresponds to the higher drought duration soon and in the mid-21st century (2021–2060). This finding is regarded as a "strange phenomenon", which cannot be detected by the previous CMIP5-based emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and the unlikely pathway RCP8.5). Therefore, additional "possible future"-based scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, and SSP370) should be included in extreme climate studies, especially for the near future and mid-21st century. Notably, compared with CMIP5, the reduced biases in drought characteristics are more likely associated with improvements in the representation of physical processes in climate models from CMIP6. The results of this study could provide a basis for the development of drought adaptation measures over China. • Latest CMIP6 climate models and seven SSP-RCP scenarios are used to analyze the possible changes in droughts over China. • More robust projections will be presented by CMIP6 than CMIP5, due to the better representations in physical processes. • The higher emission signifies shorter drought duration, lower precipitation and PET in mid-21st century over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a strong inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in time series of variables related to water abundance, such as intense precipitation, high river discharge, flood magnitude, and flood loss in China. Part of this variability can be random or chaotic, but it may well be that climate variability track plays an important role in the interpretation of the variability of water abundance. The principal aim of this review paper is to create a summary of literature-based information on links of various climate-variability drivers, i.e. natural oscillations in the ocean–atmosphere system, and the variability of characteristics of destructive water abundance in China, at a range of spatial scales (national, provincial, basin-based, municipal). The present paper reviews extensive pool of literature discussing the links between the two modes of oscillation in the ocean-atmosphere system (ENSO - El Niño -Southern Oscillation and PDO – Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and variability in time series of variables related to water abundance in China. This paper also reviews examples of extension of the database, with the help of proxies. It reviews interpretation of possible link of particular large flood events (e.g. the 1998 and the 2016 deluges) to climate variability. Also a range of issues of relevance to water management are reviewed, such as seasonal forecasting and non-stationarity of flood frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Droughts reflect the extent of water deficit on the land surface, and can be quantified by various indices. In current study, potential evapotranspiration (PET), which is one of factors that have great influence on the drought condition, is estimated by a set of models. The set consists of four temperature-decisive models (Hamon, Hargreaves-Samani, Oudin, Thornthwaite), two radiation-decisive models (Energy-Only and Priestley-Taylor) and two synthesis models (Penman and Penman-Monteith). Subsequently, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is applied to assess the spatial and temporal distributions of droughts for the arid, the semi-arid and semi-humid, as well as the humid climatic zones in China for 1961–2017. The results show that: (1) Taking China as a whole, annual PET estimated by Penman-Monteith (P-M) formula is about 1000 mm, which is in the middle of the range of results from eight algorithms. Annual PET values estimated by radiation-decisive methods are relatively close to those obtained by P-M, while temperature-decisive methods yield lower values and the largest disparity among the different PET models can be up to 2.5 fold. (2) Comparing to drought records, both P-M and Thornthwaite are suitable for assessing drought condition on the national scale, but the drought assessed by the Thornthwaite method is worse than that by the P-M method in 1990–2017 when warming is faster than before in the arid region. (3) Increase first and then decrease of values of the SPEI index are detected in China for 1961–2017 by all PET estimations. Averaged over entire China, the wetting trend has changed to drying in the early 1990s by P-M-based SPEI. More meteorological stations are found to experience droughts after the early 1990s, particularly in the western humid region and the central semi-arid and semi-humid region. In contrast, a wetness tendency is found in the arid region. (4) Patterns of the drought frequency and duration by all PET algorithms maintain relatively good correspondence in the semi-arid and semi-humid region as well as the humid region. But in the arid region, drought frequency obtained by P-M is lower than for radiation-decisive and temperature-decisive models, while drought duration is longer. • Eight algorithms clustered into three groups are used to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET) for China in 1961–2017. • A wetness trend is detected by synthesis and radiation-decisive models based SPEI, while getting drier by temperature-decisive models in the arid region. • A case study in China shows that choice of potential evapotranspiration formulas influences largely on drought assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]