1. Early Prediction of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in the Chinese Population via Advanced Machine Learning
- Author
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Jian-Zhong Sheng, Lei Chen, Yi Shi, Jian-Xia Fan, Yan-Ting Wu, Chenjie Zhang, Yu Wang, Andrew Kawai, Ben W.J. Mol, Cheng Li, and He-Feng Huang
- Subjects
Adult ,China ,GDM ,Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism ,Clinical Biochemistry ,030209 endocrinology & metabolism ,Feature selection ,Context (language use) ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,Logistic regression ,Biochemistry ,Body Mass Index ,Machine Learning ,03 medical and health sciences ,BMI ,0302 clinical medicine ,Endocrinology ,Insulin resistance ,Discriminative model ,Pregnancy ,Risk Factors ,medicine ,Humans ,machine learning models ,Online Only Articles ,Clinical Research Articles ,thyroxine ,early prediction ,early pregnancy ,030219 obstetrics & reproductive medicine ,Models, Statistical ,business.industry ,Biochemistry (medical) ,Area under the curve ,nutritional and metabolic diseases ,medicine.disease ,Prognosis ,Gestational diabetes ,Diabetes, Gestational ,Early Diagnosis ,Socioeconomic Factors ,Female ,Artificial intelligence ,business ,computer ,AcademicSubjects/MED00250 ,Algorithms - Abstract
Context Accurate methods for early gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) (during the first trimester of pregnancy) prediction in Chinese and other populations are lacking. Objectives This work aimed to establish effective models to predict early GDM. Methods Pregnancy data for 73 variables during the first trimester were extracted from the electronic medical record system. Based on a machine learning (ML)-driven feature selection method, 17 variables were selected for early GDM prediction. To facilitate clinical application, 7 variables were selected from the 17-variable panel. Advanced ML approaches were then employed using the 7-variable data set and the 73-variable data set to build models predicting early GDM for different situations, respectively. Results A total of 16 819 and 14 992 cases were included in the training and testing sets, respectively. Using 73 variables, the deep neural network model achieved high discriminative power, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.80. The 7-variable logistic regression (LR) model also achieved effective discriminate power (AUC = 0.77). Low body mass index (BMI) (≤ 17) was related to an increased risk of GDM, compared to a BMI in the range of 17 to 18 (minimum risk interval) (11.8% vs 8.7%, P = .09). Total 3,3,5′-triiodothyronine (T3) and total thyroxin (T4) were superior to free T3 and free T4 in predicting GDM. Lipoprotein(a) was demonstrated a promising predictive value (AUC = 0.66). Conclusions We employed ML models that achieved high accuracy in predicting GDM in early pregnancy. A clinically cost-effective 7-variable LR model was simultaneously developed. The relationship of GDM with thyroxine and BMI was investigated in the Chinese population.
- Published
- 2020