Search

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence at ages <50 years is increasing worldwide. Screening initiation was lowered to 45 years in the United States. The cost‐effectiveness of initiating CRC screening at 45 years in Israel was assessed with the aim of informing national policy and addressing internationally relevant questions. Methods: A validated CRC screening model was calibrated to Israeli data and examined annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) or colonoscopy every 10 years from 45 to 74 years (FIT45‐74 or Colo45‐74) versus from 50 to 74 years (FIT50‐74 or Colo50‐74). The addition of a fourth colonoscopy at 75 years was explored, subanalyses were performed by sex/ethnicity, and resource demands were estimated. Results: FIT50‐74 and Colo50‐74 reduced CRC incidence by 57% and 70% and mortality by 70% and 77%, respectively, versus no screening, with greater absolute impact in Jews/Other versus Arabs but comparable relative impact. FIT45‐74 further reduced CRC incidence and mortality by an absolute 3% and 2%, respectively. With Colo45‐74 versus Colo50‐74, CRC cases and deaths increased slightly as three colonoscopies per lifetime shifted to 5 years earlier but mean quality‐adjusted life‐years gained (QALYGs) per person increased. FIT45‐74 and Colo45‐74 cost 23,800–53,900 new Israeli shekels (NIS)/QALYG and 110,600–162,700 NIS/QALYG, with the lowest and highest values among Jewish/Other men and Arab women, respectively. A fourth lifetime colonoscopy cost 48,700 NIS/QALYG. Lowering FIT initiation to 45 years with modest participation required 19,300 additional colonoscopies in the first 3 years. Conclusions: Beginning CRC screening at 45 years in Israel is projected to yield modest clinical benefits at acceptable costs per QALYG. Despite different estimates by sex/ethnicity, a uniform national policy is favored. These findings can inform Israeli guidelines and serve as a case study internationally. In a modeling study of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in Israel, where CRC incidence at ages <50 years has not increased, lowering CRC screening initiation to 45 years yielded moderate clinical benefits at acceptable costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

INTRODUCTION: The rates of serious cardiac, neurologic, and pulmonary events attributable to colonoscopy are poorly characterized, and background event rates are usually not accounted for. METHODS: We performed a multistate population-based study using changepoint analysis to determine the rates and timing of serious gastrointestinal and nongastrointestinal adverse events associated with screening/surveillance colonoscopy, including analyses by age (45 to <55, 55 to <65, 65 to <75, and ≥75 years). Among 4.5 million persons in the Ambulatory Surgery and Services Databases of California, Florida, and New York who underwent screening/surveillance colonoscopy in 2005-2015, we ascertained serious postcolonoscopy events in excess of background rates in Emergency Department (SEDD) and Inpatient Databases (SID). RESULTS: Most serious nongastrointestinal postcolonoscopy events were expected based on the background rate and not associatedwith colonoscopy itself. However, associated nongastrointestinal events predominated over gastrointestinal events at ages ≥65 years, including more myocardial infarctions plus ischemic strokes than perforations at ages ≥75 years (361 [95% confidence intervals {CI} 312-419] plus 1,279 [95% CI 1,182-1,384] vs 912 [95% CI 831-1,002] per million). At all ages, the observed-to-expected ratios for days 0-7, 0-30, and 0-60 after colonoscopy were substantially >1 for gastrointestinal bleeding and perforation, but minimally >1 for most nongastrointestinal complications. Risk periods ranged from 1 to 125 days depending on complication type and age. No excess postcolonoscopy in-hospital deaths were observed. DISCUSSION: Although crude counts substantially overestimate nongastrointestinal events associated with colonoscopy, nongastrointestinal complications exceed bleeding and perforation risk in older persons. The inability to ascertain modifications to antiplatelet therapy was a study limitation. Our results can inform benefit-to-risk determinations for preventive colonoscopy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening remains underused, especially in safety-net systems. The objective of this study was to determine the effectiveness, costs, and cost-effectiveness of organized outreach using fecal immunochemical tests (FITs) compared with usual care.Methods: Patients age 50-75 years eligible for CRC screening from eight participating primary care safety-net clinics were randomly assigned to outreach intervention with usual care vs usual care alone. The intervention included a mailed postcard and call, followed by a mailed FIT kit, and a reminder phone call if the FIT kit was not returned. The primary outcome was screening participation at 1 year and a microcosting analysis of the outreach activities with embedded long-term cost-effectiveness of outreach. All statistical tests were two-sided.Results: A total of 5386 patients were randomly assigned to the intervention group and 5434 to usual care. FIT screening was statistically significantly higher in the intervention group than in the control group (57.9% vs 37.4%, P < .001; difference = 20.5%, 95% confidence interval = 18.6% to 22.4%). In the intervention group, FIT completion rate was higher in patients who had previously completed a FIT vs those who had not (71.9% vs 35.7%, P < .001). There was evidence of effect modification of the intervention by language, and clinic. Outreach cost approximately $23 per patient and $112 per additional patient screened. Projecting long-term outcomes, outreach was estimated to cost $9200 per quality-adjusted life-year gained vs usual care.Conclusion: Population-based management with organized FIT outreach statistically significantly increased CRC screening and was cost-effective in a safety-net system. The sustainability of the program and any impact of economies of scale remain to be determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Global increases in colorectal cancer risk have spurred debate about optimal use of screening resources. We explored the potential clinical and economic impact of colorectal cancer screening tailored to predicted colorectal cancer risk. Methods: We compared screening tailored to predicted risk versus uniform screening in a validated decision analytic model, considering the average risk population's actual colorectal cancer risk distribution, and a risk-prediction tool's discriminatory ability and cost. Low, moderate, and high risk tiers were identified as colorectal cancer risk after age 50 years of =3%, >3 to <12%, and =12%, respectively, based on threshold analyses with willingness-to-pay <$50,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Tailored colonoscopy (once at age 60 years for low risk, every 10 years for moderate risk, and every 5 years for high risk) was compared with colonoscopy every 10 years for all. Tailored fecal immunochemical testing (FIT)/colonoscopy (annual FIT for low and moderate risk, colonoscopy every 5 years for high risk) was compared with annual FIT for all. Results: Assuming no colorectal cancer risk misclassification or risk-prediction tool costs, tailored screening was preferred over uniform screening. Tailored colonoscopy was minimally less effective than uniform colonoscopy, but saved $90,200-$889,000/QALY; tailored FIT/colonoscopy yielded more QALYs/person than annual FIT at $10,600-$60,000/QALY gained. Relatively modest colorectal cancer risk misclassification rates or risk-prediction tool costs resulted in uniform screening as the preferred approach. Conclusions: Current risk-prediction tools may not yet be accurate enough to optimize colorectal cancer screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The American Cancer Society has recommended initiating colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at age 45 years instead of 50 years. We estimated the cost effectiveness and national effects of adopting this recommendation. We compared screening strategies and alternative resource allocations in a validated Markov model. We based national projections on screening participation rates by age and census data. Screening colonoscopy initiation at age 45 years instead of 50 years in 1000 persons averted 4 CRCs and 2 CRC deaths, gained 14 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), cost $33,900/QALY gained, and required 758 additional colonoscopies. These 758 colonoscopies could instead be used to screen 231 currently unscreened 55-year-old persons or 342 currently unscreened 65-year-old persons, through age 75 years. These alternatives averted 13–14 CRC cases and 6–7 CRC deaths and gained 27–28 discounted QALYs while saving $163,700–$445,800. Improving colonoscopy completion rates after abnormal results from a fecal immunochemical test yielded greater benefits and savings. Initiation of fecal immunochemical testing at age 45 years instead of 50 years cost $7700/QALY gained. Shifting current age-specific screening rates to 5 years earlier could avert 29,400 CRC cases and 11,100 CRC deaths over the next 5 years but would require 10.7 million additional colonoscopies and cost an incremental $10.4 billion. Improving screening rates to 80% in persons who are 50–75 years old would avert nearly 3-fold more CRC deaths at one third the incremental cost. In a Markov model analysis, we found that starting CRC screening at age 45 years is likely to be cost effective. However, greater benefit, at lower cost, could be achieved by increasing participation rates for unscreened older and higher-risk persons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tailoring screening to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk could improve screening effectiveness. Most CRCs arise from advanced neoplasia (AN) that dwells for years. To date, no available colorectal neoplasia risk score has been validated externally in a diverse population. The authors explored whether the National Cancer Institute (NCI) CRC risk-assessment tool, which was developed to predict future CRC risk, could predict current AN prevalence in a diverse population, thereby allowing its use in risk stratification for screening.Methods: This was a prospective examination of the relation between predicted 10-year CRC risk and the prevalence of AN, defined as advanced or multiple (≥3 adenomatous, ≥5 serrated) adenomatous or sessile serrated polyps, in individuals undergoing screening colonoscopy.Results: Among 509 screenees (50% women; median age, 58 years; 61% white, 5% black, 10% Hispanic, and 24% Asian), 58 (11%) had AN. The prevalence of AN increased progressively from 6% in the lowest risk-score quintile to 17% in the highest risk-score quintile (P = .002). Risk-score distributions in individuals with versus without AN differed significantly (median, 1.38 [0.90-1.87] vs 1.02 [0.62-1.57], respectively; P = .003), with substantial overlap. The discriminatory accuracy of the tool was modest, with areas under the curve of 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.69) overall, 0.59 (95% CI, 0.49-0.70) for women, and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.53-0.73) for men. The results did not change substantively when the analysis was restricted to adenomatous lesions or to screening procedures without any additional incidental indication.Conclusions: The NCI CRC risk-assessment tool displays modest discriminatory accuracy in predicting AN at screening colonoscopy in a diverse population. This tool may aid shared decision-making in clinical practice. Cancer 2016. © 2016 American Cancer Society. Cancer 2016;122:2663-2670. © 2016 American Cancer Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims Cirrhosis from hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma worldwide. We determine the prevalence of cirrhosis among HCV-infected American adults including those unaware of their infection. Methods Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data, we identified participants aged ⩾20 years with detectable serum HCV RNA. The prevalence of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis was determined for eras 1 (1988–94), 2 (1999–2006) and 3 (2007–2012) by using FIB-4 >3.25 and APRI >2.0, respectively. Results Out of 52,644 NHANES examinees, 49,429 were tested for HCV, of whom 725 met the inclusion criteria (positive HCV RNA with available data for FIB-4 and APRI). Based on APRI, 6.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.2–11.0) of HCV-infected adults in era 1, 7.6% (95% CI: 3.4–11.8) in era 2 and 17.0% (95% CI: 8.0–26.0) in era 3 had cirrhosis. In the multivariable regression analysis, this era effect was attributable to increasing age (odds ratio [OR]:1.04, 95% CI: 1.02–1.07), diabetes (OR: 2.33, 95% CI: 1.01–5.40) and obesity (OR: 2.96, 95% CI: 1.15–7.57). Cirrhosis was as common among respondents who were unaware of their infection as those who were aware (both 11%). Results were identical when FIB-4 was used. Conclusions Among HCV-infected American adults, the proportion with cirrhosis has increased rapidly. Cirrhosis prevalence remains high in individuals unaware of their HCV infection. These data highlight the urgency for HCV screening regardless of symptoms, systematic assessment for liver fibrosis in those with HCV infection and institution of antivirals to prevent advanced liver disease. Lay summary Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major cause of cirrhosis, creating a large public health burden. Based on the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey sample, we found the proportion of patients with cirrhosis among Americans with HCV infection increased from 6.6% to 17.0% over the past two decades. Patients who were unaware of their infection were just as likely to have cirrhosis as those who knew about their infection, which highlights the need for screening and treatment for HCV at the population level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]