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Summary: We evaluate the informational content of news‐based sentiment indicators for forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) and other macroeconomic variables of the five major European economies. Our dataset includes over 27 million articles for 26 major newspapers in five different languages. The evidence indicates that these sentiment indicators are significant predictors to forecast macroeconomic variables and their predictive content is robust to controlling for other indicators available to forecasters in real time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The pandemic exposes policymakers to fundamental uncertainties about future economic scenarios. While policymakers have to act forcefully to mitigate the impact on the economy, these conditions call for policy strategies that are also robust to uncertainty. This article compares two concepts of robust strategies: robust control and robust satisficing. It argues that a robust satisficing strategy is preferred and shows that the crisis responses of governments and central banks in Europe share features of robust satisficing in several dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this brief, the nanosatellite rendezvous and docking problem is tackled. It was never attempted for small spacecraft, as critical technologies, such as six-degree-of-freedom (DoF) micropropulsion systems, have only recently become available due to advances in MEMS. The typical level of noise in nanosatellites’ sensors and actuators combined with the dynamics uncertainties, low actuation capabilities, and reliability requirements makes the use of robust control appropriate. The system is described by a linearized rotation/translation, six DoFs, and coupled dynamics, including fuel sloshing. An H∞ controller is first designed, in which robust stability and performance are assessed using structured singular values. The controller robustness is then improved using μ-synthesis. Nonlinear Monte Carlo simulations for both controllers, including realistic sensors and actuators models, are provided allowing a thorough assessment of the complete guidance, navigation and control (GNC). The sought GNC schemes are shown to be robust to the modeled uncertainties and to satisfy the docking requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper stresses the lack of attention paid to the geographical definitions of cities in LUTI models as one key detrimental aspect to transferring and generalising LUTI results. First, the argumentation develops from a meta-analysis of peer-reviewed publications about LUTI applications in European cities. We show that most authors do not assess findings against potential geographical biases. Second, theoretical simulations are conducted withUrbanSimapplied to a synthetic urban area. By varying the geographical limits of the system and population endowments, our simulations confirm that the absence of control on city delineation weakens the results. Finally, the paper suggests methodological guidelines to improve the comparability of LUTI applications and push forward their theoretical agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Discontinuity of air routes is a subject that has been analysed in various ways. For example, the complex network approach focuses on network robustness and resilience due to route interruptions during a relatively short period. Also seasonal interruptions of air routes are a well-documented phenomenon in the context of demand variability. However, only recently discussions emerge on the more permanent cessation of air routes, the route churn. Today, European low-cost carriers frequently apply route churn in their networks. To enable early route churn detection in these networks, a regression model is developed in which route characteristics explain the churning likelihood of individual routes. The results of the econometric analysis show that churn rates are higher during an economic downturn, within the Eastern European market, between the Eastern and the Mediterranean market and between primary airports. In addition, we find that distance and the number of seats offered have a significant negative effect on the churn likelihood. The results also show significant effects of market share, seasonality and route age on the chance of cessation. To conclude, the paper demonstrates substantial differences in churn behaviour amongst specific low-cost carriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyze the topological properties of the network of the Euro Area banking market network, with the primary aim of assessing the importance of a bank in the financial system with respect to ownership and control of other credit institutions. The network displays power law distributions in both binary and weighted degree metrics indicating a robust yet fragile structure and a direct link between an increase of control diversification and a rise in the market power. Therefore while in good time the network is seemingly robust, in bad times many banks can simultaneously go into distress. This behavior paves the way for Central bank’s actions. In particular we investigate whether the Single Supervisory Mechanism introduced by the European Central Banks and based on banks’ total asset is a good proxy to quantify their systemic importance. Results indicate that not all the financial institutions with high valued total assets are systemically important but only few of them. Moreover the network structure reveals that control is highly concentrated, with few important shareholders approximately controlling a separate subset of banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of corruption on airport productive efficiency is analyzed using an unbalanced panel data of major European airports from 2003 to 2009. We first compute the residual (or net) variable factor productivity using the multilateral index number method and then apply robust cluster random effects model in order to evaluate the importance of corruption. We find strong evidence that corruption has negative impacts on airport operating efficiency; and the effects depend on the ownership form of the airport. The results suggest that airports under mixed public–private ownership with private majority achieve lower levels of efficiency when located in more corrupt countries. They even operate less efficiently than fully and/or majority government owned airports in high corruption environment. We control for economic regulation, competition level and other airports’ characteristics. Our empirical results survive several robustness checks including different control variables, three alternative corruption measures: International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) corruption index, Corruption Perception Index (CPI) and Control of Corruption Index (CCI). The empirical findings have important policy implications for management and ownership structuring of airports operating in countries that suffer from higher levels of corruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A robust geochronology based on U–Pb zircon ages in Australia (n=158) and Europe (n=376) provides a rigorous test of (1) the model of a climatic–tectonic cycle of a single continent (Pangea) and ocean (Panthalassa) with an icehouse climate alternating with many continents and oceans with a greenhouse climate, and (2) the idea of coeval (320 to 300Ma) right-lateral shear events in Eastern Australia and Europe followed by earliest Permian (~300Ma) extension. During Pangean assembly, stress from the oblique collision of Laurussia and Gondwanaland bent the oroclines in Iberia, drove the intense shortening in Central Australia and terminal megakinking in the Lachlan orogen, and possibly drove the bending of oroclines in Eastern Australia. Extension I (~300Ma, Carboniferous/Permian) followed the first outburst of self-induced (monsoonal) heat from the newly assembled Pangea, and generated fresh accommodation space for globally synchronous sedimentary successions, including the glacial base and succeeding coals of the Gondwana facies. Extension was relieved by sags on (isotropic) cratons and rifts on (anisotropic) fold belts with voluminous volcanics. In Europe, the Variscan orogen was cut into right-lateral magmatic rifts and the craton sagged to accumulate magmatic basins; likewise, the convergent margin of Eastern Australia was cut into a long magmatic rift and the cratonic foreland covered by the Gondwana facies. The end-Permian (251Ma) sea-level drawdown, climate warming, and severe biotic extinction, with no obvious tectonic cause, were responsible for the Early-Middle Triassic coal gap. A second outburst of heat drove Extension II (235Ma, Carnian, Late Triassic), expressed as rifts and sags that accumulated a second set of coal-bearing strata. At this time of its largest extent, Pangea underwent incipient breakup by rifting of the Atlantic Margins of North America, Morocco, and Western Europe that developed into 190Ma drifting. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: High growth firms and reducing innovation barriers figure high in the European innovation policy debate. Do high growth firms face specific innovation barriers which are relevant for innovation policy? In this paper we study the robustness of the perception of innovation barriers when alternative definitions of high growth firms are used. Using data from two waves of the European Innovation survey (CIS 4 and CIS 2006) we show not only that different definitions of high growth firms lead to quite different results across country groups, but also that the results are quite different for the CIS 4 and CIS 2006 samples. We argue that in the light of the available empirical evidence this non-robustness should not come as a surprise and that this negative result makes it difficult to specifically target high growth firms with public policies. Fostering the emergence of high growth innovative firms in Europe may not be feasible with targeted funding policies only but needs a systemic approach. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights: [•] Robust abundance estimates for five cetacean species in EU Atlantic shelf waters. [•] No evidence for large-scale change in abundance between 1994 and 2005 in 3 species. [•] Large shift in harbour porpoise distribution demonstrated by spatial modelling. [•] Results allow assessment of conservation status at large spatial scale. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

European research attempting to quantify neighbourhood effects has relied almost exclusively on analyses of observational data. No consensus has emerged, perhaps because a variety of statistical procedures have been employed. We investigate this by exploring the degree to which alternative, non-experimental statistical methods yield different estimates of the relationship between neighbourhood income mix and individual work income when applied to the same longitudinal database. We find that results are highly sensitive to the statistical approach employed. Methods controlling for geographic selection bias generally reduce the negative association between low-income neighbours and individual earnings, but substantial differences across models remain. Controlling for both selection and endogeneity produces larger associations and evidence of non-linearity, something that is hidden in models only controlling for selection. All methods suffer shortcomings, so we argue for multi-method investigations to identify robust findings, with instrumental variables and fixed effects on non-mover samples being preferred. In our case, we find a substantial neighbourhood effect, regardless of the method employed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we present first-order results detailing the Anatolian crustal from receiver function analysis of data from approximately 300 stations within Turkey. Seismic data from the Kandilli Observatory array (KOERI; KO), the National Seismic Network of Turkey (AFAD-DAD; TU) and available IRIS data from the Northern Anatolian Fault experiment (YL) for the period between 2005 and 2010 is analysed. We calculate receiver functions in the frequency domain using water-level deconvolution. The results are analysed using a combination of H–K stacking and depth stacking to determine robust Moho conversion depths and VP/Vs ratios across Anatolia. We detect a deep Moho in eastern Anatolia of up to ∼55 km, a generally normal Moho in Central Anatolia of ∼37–47 km and a thinned Moho in western Anatolia and Cyprus of ∼30 km. The VP/Vs ratio across the Anatolian Plate is generally slightly elevated; regions of extremely high VP/Vs ratio (>1.85) can be associated with recent volcanism in eastern and central Anatolia. High VP/Vs ratio measurements (>1.85) in western Anatolia may be indicative of partial melt in the lower crust associated with regional extension. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study examines the martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) for the European emerging unit-linked insurance markets, using the automatic portmanteau (AQ) test of Escanciano and Lobato, 2009 for the three sub-periods of pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis. The martingale difference sequence is called conditional mean independence in the statistical literature, implying that the asset return is purely non-predictable from its own past. This study proposes a data-driven Box-Pierce for serial correlation. The automatic Portmanteau test for serial correlation test presents higher power in simulations than the existing ones for models commonly employed in empirical finance: the researcher does not need to specify the order of the autocorrelation tested, since the test automatically chooses this number; its asymptotic null distribution is chi-square with one degree of freedom, so there is no need of using a bootstrap procedure to estimate the critical values and the test is robust to the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form. This paper examines return predictability of the daily ING unit-linked funds prices and aims at monitoring any improvement in the degree of efficiency in time. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We have designed two highly polymorphic microsatellite multiplexes for Larix decidua Mill (European larch), a coniferous tree species with a fragmented distribution across Europe. The multiplexes combine microsatellites previously designed for the sister species L. kaempferi and newly identified microsatellites obtained by pyrosequencing of an enriched microsatellite library and subsequent marker candidate selection. As we wanted to target highly polymorphic markers, only microsatellite motifs with a high number of repeats (≥12) were selected. An important proportion of the marker candidates presented multiple bands, bad amplification or insufficient polymorphism. Such difficulties were expected owing to the large genome size of the studied species. Our strategy for marker validation followed most recent recommendations for microsatellite development, for example verifying marker quality in terms of polymorphism and accurate allele binning before multiplexing. The most promising loci were combined in two multiplexes, a 7-plex and a 6-plex. These were tested on a sample of 413 individuals from 18 populations distributed across the natural range. The 13 loci had from 9 to 36 alleles. Markers were successfully tested in another laboratory, confirming robustness of the marker protocols. We also tested transferability on six other larch species from Asia and North America. Overall, this study shows that, even in species with large genome size and relatively low overall polymorphism, microsatellites can be successfully developed using next-generation sequencing technologies, provided that some additional precautions are taken compared to species lacking these characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coastal zone is a complex environment in which a variety of forcing factors interact causing shoreline evolution. Coastal managers seek to predict coastal evolution and to identify regions vulnerable to erosion. Here, a Bayesian network is developed to identify the primary factors influencing decadal-scale shoreline evolution of European coasts and to reproduce the observed evolution trends. Sensitivity tests demonstrate the robustness of the model, showing higher predictive capabilities for stable coasts than for eroding coasts. Finally, the study highlights the need to update and expand large-scale coastal data sets, particularly by including local scale processes and anthropogenic impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between cross-country differences in drug price regulation and the location of biopharmaceutical Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Europe. Simple theory predicts that price regulation in one country might affect total investment, but not the location of that investment, if sales are global. Nevertheless, some manufacturers threaten that the introduction of price regulation in a country will motivate them to move their investments to other countries. Are such threats cheap talk, or is there evidence that firms avoid price-controlling countries when making FDI location choices? We use data on 527 investments initiated in 27 European countries between 2002 and 2009 and find that investors are less likely to choose countries with price controls, after controlling for other determinants of investment. We also observe a relative decline in investment in countries that increased the stringency of regulatory regimes during our sample period. The effect is restricted to non-manufacturing investments and is most robust for those related to administrative functions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A range of new spatial datasets classifying the European environment has been constructed over the last few years. These datasets share the common objective of dividing European environmental gradients into convenient units, within which objects and variables of interest have relatively homogeneous characteristics. The stratifications and typologies can be used as a basis for up-scaling, for stratified random sampling of ecological resources, for the representative selection of sites for studies across the continent and for the provision of frameworks for modeling exercises and reporting at the European scale. This paper provides an overview of five recent European stratifications and typologies, constructed for contrasting objectives, and differing in spatial and thematic detail. These datasets are: the Environmental Stratification (EnS), the European Landscape Classification (LANMAP), the Spatial Regional Reference Framework (SRRF), the Agri-Environmental Zonation (SEAMzones), and the Foresight Analysis for Rural Areas Of Europe (FARO-EU) Rural Typology. For each classification the objective, background, and construction of the dataset are described, followed by a discussion of its robustness. Finally, applications of each dataset are summarized. The five stratifications and typologies presented here give an overview of different research objectives for constructing such classifications. In addition they illustrate the most up to date methods for classifying the European environment, including their limitations and challenges. As such, they provide a sound basis for describing the factors affecting the robustness of such datasets. The latter is especially relevant, since there is likely to be further interest in European environmental assessment. In addition, advances in data availability and analysis techniques, will probably lead to the construction of other typologies in the future. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Extreme wind speeds and related storm loss potential in Europe have been investigated using multi-model simulations from global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate models. Potential future changes due to anthropogenic climate change have been analysed from these simulations following the IPCC SRES A IB scenario. The large number of available simulations allows an estimation of the robustness of detected future changes. All the climate models reproduced the observed spatial patterns of wind speeds, although some models displayed systematic biases. A storm loss model was applied to the GCM and RCM simulated wind speeds, resulting in realistic mean loss amounts calculated from 20th century climate simulations, although the inter-annual variability of losses is generally underestimated. In future climate simulations, enhanced extreme wind speeds were found over northern parts of Central and Western Europe in most simulations and in the ensemble mean (up to 5%). As a consequence, the loss potential is also higher in these regions, particularly in Central Europe. Conversely, a decrease in extreme wind speeds was found in Southern Europe, as was an associated reduction in loss potential. There was considerable spread in the projected changes of individual ensemble members, with some indicating an opposite signature to the ensemble mean. Downscaling of the large-scale simulations with RCMs has been shown to be an important source of uncertainty. Even RCMs with identical boundary forcings can show a wide range of potential changes. The robustness of the projected changes was estimated using two different measures. First, the inter-model standard deviation was calculated; however, it is sensitive to outliers and thus displayed large uncertainty ranges. Second, a multimodel combinatorics approach considered all possible subensembles from GCMs and RCMs, hence taking into account the arbitrariness of model selection for multi-model studies. Based on all available GCM and RCM simulations, for example, a 25% mean increase in risk of loss for Germany has been estimated for the end of the 21st century, with a 90% confidence range of +15 to +35%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrorist attacks on transportation networks have traumatized modern societies. With a single blast, it has become possible to paralyze airline traffic, electric power supply, ground transportation or Internet communication. How and at which cost can one restructure the network such that it will become more robust against a malicious attack? We introduce a new measure for robustness and use it to devise a method to mitigate economically and efficiently this risk. We demonstrate its efficiency on the European electricity system and on the Internet as well as on complex networks models. We show that with small changes in the network structure (low cost) the robustness of diverse networks can be improved dramatically whereas their functionality remains unchanged. Our results are useful not only for improving significantly with low cost the robustness of existing infrastructures but also for designing economically robust network systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the legitimacy, viability and efficiency of the European Union Solidarity Fund by asking whether the Fund meets its stated purpose of providing solidarity within the EU, whether it is sufficiently capitalized and if it promotes disaster risk reduction in Europe. In examining these questions, we make use of ADAM models of disaster risks throughout Europe. We conclude that the Solidarity Fund falls short on all three counts, and we suggest possible alternatives. Most far-reaching, we explore whether the EUSF could support insurance systems in Europe by, among other possible activities, capitalizing national public-private insurance programs and providing support for government risk transfer. This would leverage the Fund's capital and would overcome barriers to the provision of private and public sector insurance in uncertain catastrophe markets. It would also make insurance more affordable to Europe's most vulnerable communities. Finally, it would reduce the disincentives for risk reduction inherent in post-disaster assistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the design of robust model-based fault detection and isolation (FDI) systems for atmospheric reentry vehicles. This work draws expertise from actions undertaken within a project at the European level, which develops a collaborative effort between the University of Bordeaux, the European Space Agency, and European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company Astrium on innovative and robust strategies for reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) autonomy. Using an H∞/H- setting, a robust residual-based scheme is developed to diagnose faults on the vehicle wing-flap actuators. This design stage is followed by an original and specific diagnosis-oriented analysis phase based on the calculation of the generalized structured singular value. The latter provides a necessary and sufficient condition for robustness and FDI fault sensitivity over the whole vehicle flight trajectory. A key feature of the proposed approach is that the coupling between the in-plane and out-of-plane vehicle motions, as well as the effects that faults could have on the guidance, navigation, and control performances, are explicitly taken into account within the design procedure. The faulty situations are selected by a prior trimmability analysis to determine those for which the remaining healthy control effectors are able to maintain the vehicle around its center of gravity. Finally, some performance indicators including detection time, required onboard computational effort, and CPU time consumption are assessed and discussed. Simulation results are based on a nonlinear benchmark of the HL-20 vehicle under realistic operational conditions during the autolanding phase. The Monte Carlo results are quite encouraging, illustrating clearly the effectiveness of the proposed technique and suggesting that this solution could be considered as a viable candidate for future RLV programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the interdependencies existing in wholesale electricity prices in six major European countries. The results of a robust multivariate long-run dynamic analysis reveal the presence of four highly integrated central European markets (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria). The trend shared by these four electricity markets appears to be common also to gas prices, but not to oil prices. The existence of a common long-term dynamics among electricity prices and between electricity prices and gas prices can be explained by the similarity of the market design across Europe and by the same marginal generation technology. Since standard unit root and cointegration tests are not robust to the peculiar characteristics of electricity prices time series, we also develop a battery of robust inference procedures that should assure the reliability of our results. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many previous studies document a robust premium for value versus growth stocks in international markets. We show that this premium is driven by few years where High Minus Low (HML) returns are high and significant. For instance, for 12 European markets the HML return is statistically significant, on average, approximately 36% of the years and for these statistically significant years the average monthly HML return is 2.24%. For the rest of the years (i.e. about 64% of the time) the average HML monthly return is only 0.54%. We also find that historical βs for value and growth portfolios vary significantly over time, change between good and bad economic conditions, and that value portfolio βs are not always smaller than growth portfolio βs for the majority of the sample markets. Finally, when time-variation in systematic risk is addressed, we cannot reject the zero-intercept hypothesis, i.e. portfolio returns appear consistent with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Factor analysis as a dimension reduction technique is widely used with compositional data. Using the method for raw data or for improperly transformed data will, however, lead to biased results and consequently to misleading interpretations. Although some procedures, suitable for factor analysis with compositional data, were already developed, they require pre-knowledge of variable groups, or are complicated to handle. We present an approach based on the centred logratio (clr) transformation that does not build on this pre-knowledge, but still recognizes the specific character of compositional data. In addition, by using the isometric logratio transformation it is possible to robustify factor analysis using a robust estimation of the covariance matrix. A back-transformation of the results to the clr space allows an interpretation of the results with compositional biplots. The method is demonstrated with data from the Kola project, a large ecogeochemical mapping project in northern Europe. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this article, the nonparametric threshold autoregressive model for the Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP) deviation is proposed. We provide a threshold estimation under the general equilibrium framework. The Keynes-Einzig conjecture based on market observation is verified. Within thresholds, the momentum effect holds. The behavioural finance applies as the aggregated data are used. Outside thresholds, the random process is shown from our general equilibrium estimation. Our estimations show that the CIP deviation is nonstationary within thresholds for some countries. It contradicts to the limit of arbitrages and other market frictions for the threshold trading. The robustness test has been performed to reconfirm our results based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) criterion. The implication shows that the trend-following exists within thresholds and the directionless moving as the threshold is reached. Behind our estimation, it shows that the threshold forms a new equilibrium. As the nonparametric general equilibrium is pursued, the interactive effects behind the parameters estimation are also discussed. In this article, we provide a behavioural perspective about the real exchange rate in terms of covered interest rate parity to show the meaning behind the Keynes-Einzig conjecture. We also provide the estimation of latest aggregated data for comparison. It shows structural changes as the euro is adopted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background, aim, and scope The development of robust and up-to-date generic life cycle inventory data for materials is absolutely crucial for the LCA community since many LCA studies rely on these generic data about materials. LCA databases and software usually include within their package such generic LCI datasets. However, in many cases, the quality of these data is poor while the methodology and the models used for their development are rarely accessible or transparent. This paper presents the development of robust European LCI datasets for the production of primary and recycled aluminium ingots and for the transformation of aluminium ingot into semi-finished products, i.e. sheet, foil and extrusion. Materials and methods The environmental data have been collected through an extensive environmental survey, organised among the European aluminium industry, focusing on the year 2005 and covering EU27 countries as well as EFTA countries (Norway, Iceland and Switzerland). From this survey, European averages, i.e. foreground data, have been calculated for the direct inputs and outputs of the various aluminium processes. Using the GaBi software, the foreground data have been combined within LCI models integrating background LCI data on energy supply systems, ancillary processes and materials. For the primary aluminium production (smelters), a specific model for the electricity production has been developed. The methodology for the data consolidation and for the development of the various models is explained as well as the main differences between the new modelling approach and LCI models used in the past. An independent expert has critically reviewed the entire LCI project including data collection, models development, calculation of LCI data and associated environmental indicators. Results As confirmed by the critical review, the new LCI datasets for aluminium ingot production and transformation into semi-finished products have been developed though a robust methodology in full accordance with ISO 14040 and 14044. Most significant environmental data and LCI results are reported in this paper with an emphasis on energy use and the major emissions to air. The full environmental report, including the critical review report and the calculation of environmental indicators for a pre-set of impact categories, is available on the website of the European Aluminium Association (EAA 2008).… [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]