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Context: The large inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability that occurs in northern Australian rangelands poses major challenges for the profitable and sustainable management of grazing businesses. Aims: An integrated bio-economic modelling framework (GRASP integrated with Breedcow and Dynama (BCD)) was developed to assess the effect of alternative grazing-management options on the profitability and sustainability of a beef cattle enterprise in the central-western Mitchell grasslands of Queensland over a multi-decadal time period. Methods: Four grazing-management strategies were simulated over a 36-year period (1982–2017) in the GRASP pasture-growth model, using historic climate records for Longreach in central-western Queensland. Simulated annual stocking rates and steer liveweight-gain predictions from GRASP were integrated with published functions for mortality and conception rates in beef-breeding cattle in northern Australia, and then used to develop dynamic BCD cattle-herd models and discounted cash-flow budgets over the last 30 years of the period (1988–2017), following a 6-year model-equilibration period. The grazing-management strategies differed in the extent to which stocking rates were adjusted each year, from a common starting point in Year 1, in response to changes in the amount of forage available at the end of the summer growing season (May). They ranged from a low flexibility of 'Safe stocking rate' (SSR) and 'Retain core herd' (RCH) strategies, to a moderate flexibility of 'Drought responsive' (DR), to a 'Fully flexible' (FF) strategy. The RCH strategy included the following two herd-management scenarios: (1) 'Retain herd structure', where a mix of cattle were sold in response to low pasture availability, and (2) 'Retain core breeders', where steers were sold before reducing the breeder herd. Herd-management scenarios within the DR and FF strategies examined five and four options respectively, to rebuild cattle numbers and utilise available pasture following herd reductions made in response to drought. Key results: Property-level investment returns expressed as the internal rate of return (IRR) were poor for SSR (–0.09%) and the three other strategies when the herd was rebuilt following drought through natural increase alone (RCH, –0.27%; DR, –1.57%; and FF, –4.44%). However, positive IRR were achieved when the DR herd was rebuilt through purchasing a mix of cattle (1.70%), purchasing pregnant cows (1.45%), trading steers (0.50%) or accepting cattle on agistment (0.19%). A positive IRR of 0.70% was also achieved for the FF property when purchasing a mix of cattle to rebuild numbers. However, negative returns were obtained when either trading steers (–2.60%) or agistment (–0.11%) scenarios were applied to the FF property. Strategies that were either inflexible or highly flexible increased the risk of financial losses and business failure. Property-level pasture condition (expressed as the percentage of perennial grasses; %P) was initially 69%P and was maintained under the DR strategy (68%P; average of final 5 years). The SSR strategy increased pasture condition by 25% to 86%P, while the RCH and FF strategies decreased pasture condition by 29% (49%P) and 65% (24%P) respectively. Conclusions: In a highly variable and unpredictable climate, managing stocking rates with a moderate degree of flexibility in response to pasture availability (DR) was the most profitable approach and also maintained pasture condition. However, it was essential to economic viability that the property was re-stocked as soon as possible, in line with pasture availability, once good seasonal conditions returned. Implications: This bio-economic modelling analysis refines current grazing-management recommendations by providing insights into both the economic and sustainability consequences of stocking-rate flexibility in response to fluctuating pasture supply. Caution should be exercised in recommending either overly conservative safe stocking strategies that are inflexible, or overly flexible stocking strategies, due to the increased risk of very poor outcomes. The large inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability, which occurs in northern Australian rangelands, poses major challenges for the profitable and sustainable management of grazing businesses. A bio-economic evaluation found that when stocking rates were based on conservative carrying-capacity principles designed to maintain pasture condition, a moderate flexibility in response to pasture availability was likely to be the most profitable approach to grazing management, as well as maintaining pasture condition over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Declines in growing-season rainfall and increases in the frequency of heatwaves in southern Australia necessitate effective adaptation. The Sustainable Grazing Systems Pasture Model (SGS) was used to model the growth of three pasture species differing in root depth and root distribution under three different climate scenarios at two sites. The modelled metabolisable energy intake (in MJ) was used in a partial discounted net cash flow budget. Both the biophysical and economic modelling suggest that deep roots were advantageous in all climate scenarios at the long growing season site but provided no to little advantage at the short growing season site, likely due to the deep-rooted species drying out the soil profile earlier. In scenarios including climate change, the DM production of the deep-rooted species at the long growing season site averaged 386 kg/ha/year more than the more shallow-rooted species, while at the site with a shorter growing season it averaged 205 kg/ha/year less than the shallower-rooted species. The timing of the extra growth and pasture persistence strongly influenced the extent of the benefit. At the short growing season site other adaptation options such as summer dormancy will likely be necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy transition for a net-zero future will require deep decarbonisation that hydrogen is uniquely positioned to facilitate. This technoeconomic study considers renewable hydrogen production, transmission and storage for energy networks using the National Electricity Market (NEM) region of Eastern Australia as a case study. Plausible growth projections are developed to meet domestic demands for gas out to 2040 based on industry commitments and scalable technology deployment. Analysis using the discounted cash flow technique is performed to determine possible levelised cost figures for key processes out to 2050. Variables include geographic limitations, growth rates and capacity factors to minimise abatement costs compared to business-as-usual natural gas forecasts. The study provides an optimistic outlook considering renewable power-to-X opportunities for blending, replacement and gas-to-power to show viable pathways for the gas transition to green hydrogen. Blending is achievable with modest (3%) green premiums this decade, and substitution for natural gas combustion in the long-term is likely to represent an abatement cost of AUD 18/tCO2-e including transmission and storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]