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For the last quarter century, Asia has been seeking greater autonomy within the existing international monetary system. While the region has had the resources to go its own way, intraregional rivalries and a reluctance to damage ties to the US and the International Monetary Fund have put a damper on regional initiatives. Now the ascendency of China offers a path toward greater regional autonomy in monetary affairs. Asia, led by China, has been playing a two-track strategy pushing for greater influence within the existing global institutions, while developing its own parallel institutions such as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Use of the Chinese renminbi will likely grow as a trade invoicing currency but expanded use of the renminbi as a reserve currency is more uncertain. It is possible that the dollar-centered international financial system could evolve into a multipolar system with multiple currencies playing key roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By linking measures of forecast accuracy as well as testing procedures with regard to forecast rationality this paper investigates aggregated survey forecasts with forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months for the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Singapore dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar and, hence, for four different currency regimes. The rationality of the exchange rate predictions is initially assessed utilizing tests for unbiasedness and efficiency which indicate that the investigated forecasts are irrational in the sense that the predictions are biased. As onemajor contribution of this paper, it is subsequently shown that these results are not consistent with an alternative, less restrictive, measure of rationality. Investigating the order of integration of the time series aswell as cointegrating relationships, this empirical evidence supports the conclusion that the majority of forecasts are in fact rational. Regarding forerunning properties of the predictions, the results are rather mediocre, with shorter term forecasts for the tightly managed USD/CNY FX regime being one exception. As one additional important and novel evaluation result, it can be concluded, that the currency regime matters for the quality of exchange rate forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For several years now, China has implemented policies to promote the international use of its national currency, the Renminbi ( RMB). As part of these efforts, the People's Bank of China ( PBC) has negotiated 25 bilateral currency swap agreements ( BSAs) with foreign central banks. These make it easier for firms in both China and its partner countries to settle cross-border trade and direct investment in RMB. We seek to explain why China and these countries cooperate via BSAs. We theorize that trade and direct investment interdependence relate to dyadic BSA cooperation via two mechanisms: financing insulation from international liquidity shocks and reduced transaction costs of cross-border exchange for local firms. Additionally, we expect the presence of preferential trade agreements ( PTAs) and bilateral investment treaties ( BITs) will increase the probability of dyadic BSA cooperation. BSAs are natural extensions of these existing agreements. They represent an additional layer of state-level formal cooperation that further reduces barriers to cross-border trade and direct investment. Our empirical analysis finds that both de facto trade interdependence and de jure economic integration via PTAs and BITs increase the probability of BSA cooperation between China and partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The renminbi is currently undergoing a process of internationalization which has raised fundamental questions about the evolution of the international monetary system and the dominance of the US dollar. In this article, we assess how far the renminbi has travelled down the internationalization road and analyse the possibilities for it challenging the role of the US dollar in the future. We utilize Cohen's () taxonomy to document the current dimensions of renminbi internationalization. Looking forward, we briefly summarize three common approaches to analysing currency internationalization, and propose a new approach. We argue that renminbi internationalization should be seen as a response to crises, first the Asian financial crisis and then the global financial crisis. As such, we argue that current internationalization has been driven by short-term problem solving rather than a coherent long-term strategy. The current path of RMB internationalization is best described as one of 'currency normalization' rather than 'currency dominance'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the financial linkage between the RMB and other Asian currencies before and after the Asian financial crises in 1997 and 1998 to shed light on the role of China in Asian monetary integration. A newly developed econometrics methodology is employed to test the relationships among financial time series. Empirical test results indicate that correlations between the RMB and other East Asian currencies were higher after the 1997 Asian crisis than before the crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is a tentative endeavor to delineate the potential of the renminbi to become a global currency. It first analyzes the critical economic, financial and policy attributes that are required to support a currency to gain an international role. It then examines whether China has the potential to acquire these attributes. The paper concludes by offering some provisional observations on the implications for Asia and the global economy, should the renminbi evolve into a world currency in the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

No abstract received. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A panel regression gives evidence that more flexibility in Asian exchange rates reduces risk associated with bank borrowing abroad, but deviations from mean exchange rates, and from the renminbi, increase risk. Since the exchange rate regime affects bank behavior and the incentives to hedge, the results broadly support the bank run over the moral hazard view of twin banking and currency crisis. The results suggest that flexibility in exchange rates is required for Asian EMEs, but the flexibility has to be limited, and it depends on more flexibility in the renminbi. This has implications for current global imbalances in reserves and feasible adjustment paths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]