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Shear slowness data are crucial data in rock physics analysis and seismic reservoir characterization. In petrophysical formation evaluation, the use of sonic data is limited, and hence, sonic data, especially shear sonic, are not considered as critical. In many deep-water wells to save the cost of operations, shear sonic data are not recorded. In these scenarios for rock physics analysis, it becomes necessary to predict shear sonic data from other available datasets. Conventional techniques for shear slowness predictions rely on empirical relations and rock physics modeling. However, these approaches require extensive information as input and additionally carry assumptions and multiple prerequisites. Presently with the advancement of computing power Machine learning (ML) emerges as a robust and optimized technique for predicting precise DTS in quick time and with fewer input datasets. In this study, wells located in the deep-waters of the East Coast of India and penetrated siliciclastic reservoirs of both compacted sand and soft high porosity sands were used as input to train the ML algorithm. Random Forest machine learning algorithm is best used for both classification and regression tasks, and this algorithm is used here for the data prediction. As a comparison, the convolutional LSTM method is also used for data prediction. To comply with the geological variability in the prediction and to enhance the prediction accuracy, rock physics understandings were used as a guide in feature engineering. The RF prediction shows a good match of ~ 93%, and the LSTM model prediction shows ~ 94% correlation at validation well. Both the model predicted data show good agreement with the rock physics modeling interpretations at the target well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fast growth in renewable power generation, crucial for reducing carbon emissions in the traditional energy system, is constrained by negative environmental and economic repercussions, demanding a smarter integration with conventional energy sources. However, the seamless integration of renewable energy into grid imposes major challenges due to the inherent environment dependence of energy production, necessitating proactive forecasts to anticipate fluctuations in efficiency and dependability that might have an influence on the overall grid status and living style of the users. The objective of the work is to add a consistent dataset in the machine learning community and a new ensemble to deal with the problems pertaining to the projection and integration of renewable energy using predictive modeling. The model includes a stacked ensemble of Random Forest and XGBoost algorithms. The proposed ensemble has been successfully applied to the dataset of Agartala City. In this model, the Random Forest model is used to forecast the target variable based on input parameters, followed by the use of the XGBoost model to improve predictions through a combination of Random Forest predictions, with the goal of leveraging the strengths of multiple models while mitigating their weaknesses. The meta-model, a basic logistic regression, then learns the best combination of these predictions, allowing for the maximum potential accuracy. The model has been evaluated on R2 and RMSE. The accuracy of 99% reveals its feasibility and superiority both in short-term and long-term predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning (ML) approaches have been developed to predict materials' corrosion inhibition efficiency, particularly pyrimidine compounds. Notably, the virtual sample generation (VSG) technique enhances prediction accuracy, a novel approach for handling small datasets in this context. The random forest model, the best-performing nonlinear algorithm, showed substantial accuracy improvement based on the increase in R2 value from 0.05 to 0.99 and the decrease in RMSE value from 5.60 to 0.42, after applying VSG. These results underscore the efficacy of the VSG technique in boosting the predictive performance of ML models, particularly in scenarios constrained by limited data availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Public debt forecasts represent a key policy issue. Many methodologies have been employed to predict debt sustainability, including dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, the stock flow consistent method, the structural vector autoregressive model and, more recently, the neuro-fuzzy method. Despite their widespread application in the empirical literature, all of these approaches exhibit shortcomings that limit their utility. The present research adopts a different approach to public debt forecasts, that is, the random forest, an ensemble of machine learning. Design/methodology/approach: Using quarterly observations over the period 2000–2021, the present research tests the reliability of the random forest technique for forecasting the Italian public debt. Findings: The results show the large predictive power of this method to forecast debt-to-GDP fluctuations, with no need to model the underlying structure of the economy. Originality/value: Compared to other methodologies, the random forest method has a predictive capacity that is granted by the algorithm itself. The use of repeated learning, training and validation stages provides well-defined parameters that are not conditional to strong theoretical restrictions This allows to overcome the shortcomings arising from the traditional techniques which are generally adopted in the empirical literature to forecast public debt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diabetes may lead to several problems, one of the most prevalent and deadly of which is diabetic nephropathy. Therefore, the condition represents a significant threat to one's health since it has the potential to cause irreversible harm to the kidneys' ability to operate. A significant portion of the research that is being conducted now is focused on determining how accurately diabetic people may be predicted to develop kidney illness. Considering this, the research suggests a regression stacking approach for predicting albumin levels. These albumin values will serve as a reference for the incidence of diabetic nephropathy disease. They will be derived from the medical records of patients. The utilization of stacking regression from three different ensemble approaches, using Random Forest and CatBoost regressors, while the Huber algorithm is used as a meta-learner. The accuracy with which the combination of parameters that are employed is determined is a significant factor. It contributes to the high degree of performance that the ensemble approach achieves. Therefore, in this investigation, a grid search was carried out to tune the hyperparameters of both regressor models. We evaluated the performance of the proposed model using accuracy, MAPE, RMSE, and MSE values. The experimental findings demonstrate great performance. Three selected variables including quantitative UACR, semi-quantitative UACR, and urinary creatinine, achieved high performance. Overall, the performance obtained an accuracy rate of more than 98% with an error rate (MAPE, RMSE, and MSE values) of less than 1%. In conclusion, the stack regressor model can be implemented to predict diabetic nephropathy using clinical datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In today's dynamic business environment, the accurate prediction of sales orders plays a critical role in optimizing Supply Chain Management (SCM) and enhancing operational efficiency. In a rapidly changing, Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) business, it is essential to analyze the sales of the products and accordingly plan the supply. Due to low data volume and complexity, traditional forecasting methods struggle to capture intricate patterns. Domain Adversarial Neural Networks (DANNs) offer a promising solution by integrating transfer learning techniques to improve prediction accuracy across diverse datasets. This study presents a new sales order prediction framework that combines DANN-based feature extraction and various machine learning models. The DANN method generalizes the data, maintaining the data behavior's originality. The approach addresses challenges like limited data availability and high variability in sales behavior. Using the transfer learning approach, the DANN model is trained on the training data, and this pre-trained DANN model extracts relevant features from unknown products. In contrast, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are used to build predictive models based on it. The hyperparameter tuning of ensemble models such as Decision Tree (DT) and Random Forest (RF) is also performed. Models like the DT and RF Regressor perform better than Linear Regression and Support Vector Regressor. Notably, even without hyperparameter tuning, the Extreme Gradient Boost (XGBoost) Regressor model outperforms all the other models. This comprehensive analysis highlights the comparative benefits of various models and establishes the superiority of XGBoost in predicting sales orders effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Herbicide resistance has become a major issue in recent decades. Because diagnostics is still expensive, prediction models are helping to assess risks of resistance evolution. In this paper the influence of weed management on the evolution of resistance of the grass Alopecurus myosuroides Huds to ALSinhibitors is investigated based on field history data from two regions, Hohenlohe in Germany and Champagne in France respectively. Champagne data also comprise information on Lolium spp. Using a random forest method variable importance and performance measures were obtained for a large number of single analyses allowing for a statistical analysis of the four performance measures, type I error, type II error, AUC and accuracy. It could be shown that acceptable predictions can be obtained for training data from Hohenlohe applied to Champagne and vice versa. It turned out that in nearly all analyses false negative classifications are more frequent than false positive classifications. Based on a combined training set of A.myosuroides samples from Hohenlohe and Champagne resistance status of Lolium spp. from the Champagne dataset can be predicted with a good accuracy. This suggest that resistance evolution to ALS-inhibitors of the two grasses are closely related. This work is a first step to set a simple herbicide resistance prediction tool to the users based on field history weed management data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria is a deadly disease that can take a person's life if not predicted or cured correctly. Numerous factors like temperature, humidity, precipitation, etc., impact India's increasing cases of malaria diseases. This research presents an advanced machine learning regression technique recently developed to anticipate the prevalence of malaria in Tripura using a real-world data. The proposed structure uses nine different regression methods, such as multilayer perceptron (MLP), random forest, support vector regressor, gradient boosting regressor, Bayesian ridge, kernel ridge, extreme gradient boost regressor (XGB), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM regressor and linear regression, to predict malaria using the most affecting factors of malaria diseases, namely temperature, humidity, precipitation, month, and years as input. Furthermore, to opt out the best suited technology for malaria cases prediction, the range of value method (ROVM)–multi-criteria decision methods (MCDM) technique has been applied, considering various statistical measurements as criteria. Ultimately, a comparison of various MCDM techniques reveals that MLP, XGB, and RF emerge as the top three choices. MLP regression, with root-mean-square error (RMSE) value of 0.03357, yields the lowest RMSE value, and the coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.97616, yielding the maximum among other regressions. To effectively battle the illness in Tripura, it could be useful for continuing intervention tactics by governmental, profit and nonprofit organizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In solar forecasting, it is common practice for solar data (be it irradiance or photovoltaic power) to be converted into a stationary index (e.g., clear-sky or clearness index) before being used as inputs for solar-forecasting models. However, its actual impact is rarely quantified. Thus, this paper aims to study the impact of including this processing step in the modeling workflow within the scope of very-short-term spatio-temporal forecasting. Several forecasting models are considered, and the observed impact is shown to be model-dependent. Persistence does not benefit from this for such short timescales; however, the statistical models achieve an additional 0.5 to 2.5 percentual points (PPs) in terms of the forecasting skill. Machine-learning (ML) models achieve 0.9 to 1.9 more PPs compared to a linear regression, indicating that stationarization reveals non-linear patterns in the data. The exception is Random Forest, which underperforms in comparison with the other models. Lastly, the inclusion of solar elevation and azimuth angles as inputs is tested since these are easy to compute and can inform the model on time-dependent patterns. Only the cases where the input is not made stationary, or the underperforming Random Forest model, seem to benefit from this. This indicates that the apparent Sun position data can compensate for the lack of stationarization in the solar inputs and can help the models to differentiate the daily and seasonal variability from the shorter-term, weather-driven variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combustion optimization is an effective way to improve the efficiency of thermal power generation and reduce carbon and NOx emissions. Real-time and precise NOx emission prediction is the basis for combustion optimization control of thermal power plants. To construct an accurate NOx concentration prediction model, a novel just-in-time learning (JITL) method based on random forest (RF) is proposed in the present work. With this method, first, an improved permutation importance algorithm is proposed to extract important variables. In addition, a similarity index that incorporates temporal and spatial measures is defined to select a local training set representative of the process data. Moreover, considering the influence of model parameters on prediction performance under different working conditions, a process monitoring method based on a moving window (MW) is used to monitor the change in working conditions and guide online updating. The experimental results show that the proposed method has excellent prediction accuracy, with a coefficient of determination of 0.9319, a root-mean-square error of 3.6960 mg/m3, and an average absolute error of 2.7718 mg/m3 on the test set, making it superior to other traditional methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting hotel ratings from reviews involves natural language processing techniques to extract sentiment and features from text data, then applying machine learning (ML) models like regression or classification to estimate the corresponding rating based on these features. This study proposes an ensemble learning approach for predicting hotel ratings from user reviews. By integrating multiple ML algorithms trained on various textual features, including linguistic, semantic, and sentiment-based attributes, our model achieves superior predictive accuracy. The primary aim of this study is to predict user experience ratings with high accuracy. To achieve this, this research utilizes an Ensemble learning approach known as majority voting to make these predictions effectively. In this investigation, initially, the dataset undergoes cleaning and is subsequently subjected to a series of pre-processing steps using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. The research includes a comparative analysis of various classifiers along with different embedding methods. Seven different types of classifiers are used alongside three embedding techniques i.e., Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF), Bag of Words (BoW), and Word2Vec. The classifiers include, Logistic Regression without Cross Validation (LR), LR with Cross Validation (LRCV), Decision Tree Classifier (DTC), Stochastic Gradient Descent Classifier (SGDC), Random Forest Classifier (RFC), Support Vector Classifier (SVC) and K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN). Our proposed methodology demonstrates higher accuracy and robust performance. Accuracy and frequency are utilized as performance metrics for assessing and validating both classifiers and embedding techniques. As per the simulation results, TF-IDF in combination with LRCV achieves an accuracy rate of 61%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to solve the problems of monthly electricity generation forecasting being limited by the lack of actual data source, and the large errors caused by the influence of various factors such as weather and holidays, and the limitations of the applicable scenarios of the existing research results, a monthly electricity generation forecasting model based on similar month screening and Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) was proposed in this paper. The complementary advantages of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Improved Random Forest Regression (RFR) are utilized to achieve the monthly electricity generation prediction in the province. This prediction model does not require a large number of data to obtain a better prediction accuracy, and breaks through the limitations of the existing monthly electricity prediction model that are only suitable for a certain industry or a certain region. Experiments performed on an actual electric power generation series validate the efficiency of the proposed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a crucial parameter in Earth observation and environmental studies due to its significance in various fields. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of including spatial information into the Random Forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models for forecasting LST. The significance and impact of each input parameter on the models’ predictive capabilities are assessed using the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) approach and the model intercomparisons were done using the error evaluation metrices. The predictions were further validated using the Pearson correlation, independent samples t-test and potential geographic anomalies in the predictions are examined by spatial comparison of predicted errors using classification maps and error envelopes. The projected errors are within the acceptable range and range from − 2.267 ◦C to 1.292 ◦C for the spatially enhanced RF model and from − 1.675 ◦C to 1.439 ◦C for the spatially enhanced XGBoost model. These error ranges closely align with the training data’s quality flag of ±2 ◦C, demonstrating the models’ capability to predict LST accurately and within a reasonable error range. The findings show the significance of adding spatial information for precise LST prediction and draw attention to possible uses for such models in environmental monitoring and management. The work advances our understanding of spatial modelling strategies and offers practical guidelines for enhancing LST forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective solar energy utilization demands improvements in forecasting due to the unpredictable nature of solar irradiance (SI). This study introduces and rigorously tests two innovative forecasting models across different locations: the Sequential Deep Artificial Neural Network (SDANN) and the Deep Hybrid Random Forest Gradient Boosting (RFGB). SDANN, leveraging deep learning, aims to identify complex patterns in weather data, while RFGB, combining Random Forest and Gradient Boosting, proves more effective by offering a superior balance of efficiency and accuracy. The research highlights the SDANN model's deep learning capabilities along with the RFGB model's unique blend and their comparative success over existing models such as eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBOOST), Categorical Boosting (CatBOOST), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and a K‐Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and XGBOOST hybrid. With the lowest Mean Squared Error (147.22), Mean Absolute Error (8.77), and a high R2 value (0.80) in a studied region, RFGB stands out. Additionally, detailed ablation studies on meteorological feature impacts on model performance further enhance accuracy and adaptability. By integrating cutting‐edge AI in SI forecasting, this research not only advances the field but also sets the stage for future renewable energy strategies and global policy‐making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sports analytics (SA) incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques and models for performance prediction. Researchers have previously evaluated ML models applied on a variety of basketball statistics. This paper aims to benchmark the forecasting performance of 14 ML models, based on 18 advanced basketball statistics and key performance indicators (KPIs). The models were applied on a filtered pool of 90 high-performance players. This study developed individual forecasting scenarios per player and experimented using all 14 models. The models' performance ranking was developed using a bespoke evaluation metric, called weighted average percentage error (WAPE), formulated from the weighted mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) evaluation results of each forecasted statistic and model. Moreover, we employed a comprehensive forecasting approach to improve KPI's results. Results showed that Tree-based models, namely Extra Trees, Random Forest, and Decision Tree, are the best performers in most of the forecasted performance indicators, with the best performance achieved by Extra Trees with a WAPE of 34.14%. In conclusion, we achieved a 3.6% MAPE improvement for the selected KPI with our approach on unseen data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use monthly data covering a century-long sample period (1915–2021) to study whether geopolitical risk helps to forecast subsequent gold volatility. We account not only for geopolitical threats and acts, but also for 39 country-specific sources of geopolitical risk. The response of subsequent volatility is heterogeneous across countries and nonlinear. We find that accounting for geopolitical risk at the country level improves forecast accuracy, especially when we use random forests to estimate our forecasting models. As an extension, we report empirical evidence on the predictive value of the country-level sources of geopolitical risk for two other candidate safe-haven assets, oil and silver, over the sample periods 1900–2021 and 1915–2021, respectively. Our results have important implications for the portfolio and risk-management decisions of investors who seek a safe haven in times of heightened geopolitical tensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The continued prevalence of cardiovascular disease as a health problem worldwide underscores the importance of accurate models for risk prediction. Machine learning offers potential ways to increase the accuracy of predictions. To enhance the accuracy of the two-stage hybrid machine learning model used in cardiac risk prediction, this research seeks to implement brute force methods and data-driven techniques. A brute force optimization algorithm was used to improve the performance of six machine learning classifiers on two data sets, one containing 1,190 patients and the second 1,025 patients, and was compared with similar studies to produce accurate predictions of heart disease risk. The soft-voting ensemble classifier achieved an accuracy of 95.53%, while the Random Forest classifier achieved an accuracy of 96.42%; These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. By using a brute force optimization approach to a two-stage hybrid machine learning approach the model achieved an accuracy of 97%, there is potential to aid in the rapid and accurate diagnosis of heart disease, thus making a valuable contribution to the global endeavor to reduce mortality rates from cardiovascular disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current research is dedicated to harnessing cutting-edge technologies within the paradigm of Industry 5.0. The objective is to capitalize on advancements in Machine and Deep Learning techniques. This research endeavors to construct robust predictive models, utilizing historical data, for precise real-time predictions in estimating material quantities within a cement workshop. Machine Learning regressors evaluated based on several metrics, SVR (R-squared 0.9739, MAE 0.0403), Random Forest (R-squared 0.9990, MAE 0.0026), MLP (R-squared 0.9890, MAE 0.0255), Gradient Boosting (R-squared 0.9989, MAE 0.0042). The time series models LSTM and GRU yielded R-squared 0.9978, MAE 0.0100, and R-squared 0.9980, MAE 0.0099, respectively. The ultimate outcomes include improved and efficient production, optimization of production processes, streamlined operations, reduced downtime, mitigation of potential disruptions, and the facilitation of the factory's evolution towards intelligent manufacturing processes embedded within the framework of Industry 5.0. These achievements underscore the potential impact of leveraging advanced machine learning techniques for enhancing the operational dynamics and overall efficiency of manufacturing facilities [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of wearable sensors, such as inertial measurement units (IMUs), and machine learning for human intent recognition in health-related areas has grown considerably. However, there is limited research exploring how IMU quantity and placement affect human movement intent prediction (HMIP) at the joint level. The objective of this study was to analyze various combinations of IMU input signals to maximize the machine learning prediction accuracy for multiple simple movements. We trained a Random Forest algorithm to predict future joint angles across these movements using various sensor features. We hypothesized that joint angle prediction accuracy would increase with the addition of IMUs attached to adjacent body segments and that non-adjacent IMUs would not increase the prediction accuracy. The results indicated that the addition of adjacent IMUs to current joint angle inputs did not significantly increase the prediction accuracy (RMSE of 1.92° vs. 3.32° at the ankle, 8.78° vs. 12.54° at the knee, and 5.48° vs. 9.67° at the hip). Additionally, including non-adjacent IMUs did not increase the prediction accuracy (RMSE of 5.35° vs. 5.55° at the ankle, 20.29° vs. 20.71° at the knee, and 14.86° vs. 13.55° at the hip). These results demonstrated how future joint angle prediction during simple movements did not improve with the addition of IMUs alongside current joint angle inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper explores the possibilities of using data classification methods when forecasting time series of the geomagnetic Kp-index by machine learning methods. To classify categories of the Kp-index based on the degree of disturbance, linear and logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting on top of decision trees, and artificial neural networks of various architectures are used. The results of these methods are compared with a trivial inertial forecast (the statistical indicators of which for problems of this type are always high) at horizons from 3 h to 1 day in 3-h increments. The problem of choosing a cross-validation scheme for selecting the model hyperparameters, ways to overcome the imbalance of categories, the relative importance of input features, as well as the dependence of the results on the test sample (beginning of the 25th solar activity cycle) on inclusion in the training sample of data from the 23rd and 24th cycles or only the 24th cycles are studied. Based on the results, conclusions are drawn about the preferred methods for classifying values of the Kp-index based on the level of geomagnetic disturbance. Ways for further research and possible improvement of the classification quality are outlined, including for determining the characteristic hidden states of Earth's magnetosphere as a dynamic system in order to improve the quality of forecasting geomagnetic indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Execution of a marine operation (MO) requires coordinated actions of several vessels conducting simultaneous and sequential offshore activities. These activities have their operational limits given in terms of environmental parameters. Wave parameters are important because of their high energetic level. During the execution of a MO, forecast wave spectral parameters, i.e., significant wave height (Hs), peak period (Tp), and peak direction, are used to make an on-board decision. For critical operations, the use of forecasts can be complemented with buoy measurements. This paper proposes to use synthetic statistics of vessel dynamic responses to predict "real-time" wave spectral parameters using multi-output machine learning (ML) regression algorithms. For a case study of a vessel with no forward speed, it is observed that the random forest model predicts accurate Hs and Tp parameters. The prediction of wave direction is not very accurate but it can be corrected with on-board observations. The random forest model has good performance; it is efficient, useful for practical purposes, and comparable with other deep learning models reported in the scientific literature. Findings from this research can be valuable for real-time assessment of wave spectral parameters, which are necessary to support decision-making during the execution of MOs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid growth of the data scale in data centers, the high reliability of storage is facing various challenges. Specifically, hardware failures such as disk faults occur frequently, causing serious system availability issues. In this context, hardware fault prediction based on AI and big data technologies has become a research hotspot, aiming to guide operation and maintenance personnel to implement preventive replacement through accurate prediction to reduce hardware failure rates. However, existing methods still have weaknesses in terms of accuracy due to the impacts of data quality issues such as the sample imbalance. This article proposes a disk fault prediction method based on classification intensity resampling, which fills the gap between the degree of data imbalance and the actual classification intensity of the task by introducing a base classifier to calculate the classification intensity, thus better preserving the data features of the original dataset. In addition, using ensemble learning methods such as random forests, combined with resampling, an integrated classifier for imbalanced data is developed to further improve the prediction accuracy. Experimental verification shows that compared with traditional methods, the F1-score of disk fault prediction is improved by 6%, and the model training time is also greatly reduced. The fault prediction method proposed in this paper has been applied to approximately 80 disk drives and nearly 40,000 disks in the production environment of a large bank's data center to guide preventive replacements. Compared to traditional methods, the number of preventive replacements based on our method has decreased by approximately 21%, while the overall disk failure rate remains unchanged, thus demonstrating the effectiveness of our method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides threaten human life and infrastructure, resulting in fatalities and economic losses. Monitoring stations provide valuable data for predicting soil movement, which is crucial in mitigating this threat. Accurately predicting soil movement from monitoring data is challenging due to its complexity and inherent class imbalance. This study proposes developing machine learning (ML) models with oversampling techniques to address the class imbalance issue and develop a robust soil movement prediction system. The dataset, comprising 2 years (2019–2021) of monitoring data from a landslide in Uttarakhand, has a 70:30 ratio of training and testing data. To tackle the class imbalance problem, various oversampling techniques, including the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE), K -means SMOTE, borderline-SMOTE, and adaptive SMOTE (ADASYN), were applied to the training dataset. Several ML models, namely random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), category boosting (CatBoost), long short-term memory (LSTM), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a dynamic ensemble, were trained and compared for soil movement prediction. A 5-fold cross-validation method was applied to optimize the ML models on the training data, and the models were tested on the testing set. Among these ML models, the dynamic ensemble model with K -means SMOTE performed the best in testing, with an accuracy, precision, and recall rate of 0.995, 0.995, and 0.995, respectively, and an F1 score of 0.995. Additionally, models without oversampling exhibited poor performance in training and testing, highlighting the importance of incorporating oversampling techniques to enhance predictive capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately predicting species' range shifts in response to environmental change is paramount for understanding ecological processes and global change. In synthetic analyses, traits emerge as significant but weak predictors of species' range shifts across recent climate change. These studies assume linear responses to traits, while detailed empirical work often reveals trait responses that are unimodal and contain thresholds or other nonlinearities. We hypothesize that the use of linear modeling approaches fails to capture these nonlinearities and, therefore, may be under‐powering traits to predict range shifts. We evaluate the predictive performance of approaches that can capture nonlinear relationships (ridge‐regularized linear regression, support vector regression with linear and nonlinear kernels, and random forests). We apply our models using six multidecadal range shift datasets for plants, moths, marine fish, birds, and small mammals. We show that nonlinear approaches can perform better than least‐squares linear modeling in reproducing historical range shifts. Consistent with expectations, we identify dispersal and climatic niche traits as primary determinants of distribution shifts. Traits identified as important predictors and the direction of trait effects are generally consistent across models, but there are notable exceptions. Among important predictors, there are more consistent responses to climatic niches than dispersal ability. Modest improvements in predictability when accounting for nonlinearities and interactions, and the overall low amount of variance accounted for by trait predictors suggest limits to trait‐based statistical predictive frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An optimizer is the process of hyperparameter tuning that updates the machine learning model after each step of weight loss adjustment of input features. The permutation and combination of high and low learning rates with various step sizes ultimately leads to an optimal tuning model. The step size and learning rate sometimes take much smaller steps, allowing the derivatives of tangent to gradually reach global minima. The primary goal of this study is to compare the prediction accuracy of enhanced heart disease using various optimization algorithms. Heart disease treatment requires ensemble hyperparameter tuning for accurate prediction and classification due to multiple feature dependencies. The study analyzed model tuning techniques using the AUC and confusion matrix, revealing improvements in precision, recall, and f1 score from default to optimized models. The Hyper-opt in Bayesian optimizer and T-pot classifiers were used in genetic populations and offspring with 5 and 10 generations, while using Optuna optimization frozen trails was combined with a random forest algorithm. The default random forest (86.6%), Bayesian optimization with random forest (89%), and Bayesian optimization with support vector machines (90%) scored the highest accuracy among all. The generic algorithm with five generations (86.8%) and GAsearchCV with 10 generations (88.5%) scored the second highest accuracy, while Optuna's support vector machine model (84%) scored the least accuracy, respectively. This research further compares the machine learning accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, macro average, and confusion matrix of each optimized model with their model's actual performance execution time. The predictive accuracy from exploratory data analysis and data pre-processing was further tested after the pipeline design of one-hot encoding and standard scaling of enhanced (31-featured) data sets and heart disease data (13 features). The gaussian algorithm (84%), logistic regression (83%), and classification models predict with higher accuracy than dummy classifiers (54%), when compared with standalone default machine learning models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting electricity production from renewable energy sources, such as solar photovoltaic installations, is crucial for effective grid management and energy planning in the transition towards a sustainable future. This study proposes machine learning approaches for predicting electricity production from solar photovoltaic installations at a regional level in Italy, not using data on individual installations. Addressing the challenge of diverse data availability between pinpoint meteorological inputs and aggregated power data for entire regions, we propose leveraging meteorological data from the centroid of each Italian province within each region. Particular attention is given to the selection of the best input features, which leads to augmenting the input with 1-hour-lagged meteorological data and previous-hour power data. Several ML approaches were compared and examined, optimizing the hyperparameters through five-fold cross-validation. The hourly predictions encompass a time horizon ranging from 1 to 24 h. Among tested methods, Kernel Ridge Regression and Random Forest Regression emerge as the most effective models for our specific application. We also performed experiments to assess how frequently the models should be retrained and how frequently the hyperparameters should be optimized in order to comprise between accuracy and computational costs. Our results indicate that once trained, the model can provide accurate predictions for extended periods without frequent retraining, highlighting its long-term reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sugarcane smut and Pachymetra root rots are two serious diseases of sugarcane, with susceptible infected crops losing over 30% of yield. A heritable component to both diseases has been demonstrated, suggesting selection could improve disease resistance. Genomic selection could accelerate gains even further, enabling early selection of resistant seedlings for breeding and clonal propagation. In this study we evaluated four types of algorithms for genomic predictions of clonal performance for disease resistance. These algorithms were: Genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP), including extensions to model dominance and epistasis, Bayesian methods including BayesC and BayesR, Machine learning methods including random forest, multilayer perceptron (MLP), modified convolutional neural network (CNN) and attention networks designed to capture epistasis across the genome-wide markers. Simple hybrid methods, that first used BayesR/GWAS to identify a subset of 1000 markers with moderate to large marginal additive effects, then used attention networks to derive predictions from these effects and their interactions, were also developed and evaluated. The hypothesis for this approach was that using a subset of markers more likely to have an effect would enable better estimation of interaction effects than when there were an extremely large number of possible interactions, especially with our limited data set size. To evaluate the methods, we applied both random five-fold cross-validation and a structured PCA based cross-validation that separated 4702 sugarcane clones (that had disease phenotypes and genotyped for 26k genome wide SNP markers) by genomic relationship. The Bayesian methods (BayesR and BayesC) gave the highest accuracy of prediction, followed closely by hybrid methods with attention networks. The hybrid methods with attention networks gave the lowest variation in accuracy of prediction across validation folds (and lowest MSE), which may be a criteria worth considering in practical breeding programs. This suggests that hybrid methods incorporating the attention mechanism could be useful for genomic prediction of clonal performance, particularly where nonadditive effects may be important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vehicular Ad-hoc Networks (VANET) as the key correspondence organizing innovation has been pulled in by the scholarly world and enterprises with surprising turn of events. With each vehicle acting as a node in an ad hoc network made up of immobile or mobile vehicles, the VANET, which connects vehicles over a wireless connection, is a developing research field that is garnering prominence. The authors of this study examined real-time vehicles and the outcomes of four routing protocols on the basis of three parameters are recorded using network simulator (NS-3) as network simulator and synchronized with simulation on urban mobility (SUMO) as mobility simulator. A dataset is compiled using recorded results with NS-3 and SUMO. For selecting the efficient routing protocol, collection of dataset and selection of different features is done. machine learning (ML) models such as random forest, logistic regression, and k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) are implemented utilizing a set of relevant information regarding the relationship between sender and receiver. The effectiveness of ML models is assessed using a novel dataset and especially in comparison to that with others. The results shows that k-NN outperforms on the basis of evaluation parameters: F-score (75.5%), Accuracy (97.2%), Recall (79.9%) and Precision (75.3%) of classification learning techniques. The purpose of this research is prediction and analysis of ML Models for efficient routing protocol in VANET using different feature information that may be utilized to improve effectiveness of VANET and provided efficient routing protocol for safe, secure, reliable connection between vehicles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our previous study utilized importance analysis, random forest, and Barnes–Hut t-SNE dimensionality reduction to analyze critical dicing parameters and used bidirectional long short-term memory (BLSTM) to predict wafer chipping occurrence successfully in a single dicing machine. However, each dicing machine of the same type may produce unevenly distributed non-IID dicing signals, which may lead to the undesirable result that a pre-trained model trained by dicing machine #1 could not effectively predict chipping occurrence in dicing machine #2. Therefore, regarding the model robustness, this study introduces an ensemble meta-learning-based model that can evaluate many dicing machines for chipping prediction with high stability and accuracy. This approach constructs several base learners, such as the hidden Markov model (HMM), the variational autoencoder (VAE), and BLSTM, to form an ensemble learning. We use model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) to train and test the ensemble learning model by several prediction tasks from machine #1. After MAML learning, we call the trained model a meta learner. Then, we successfully apply a retrieved data set from machine #2 to the meta learner for training and testing wafer chipping occurrence in this machine. As a result, our contribution to the robust chipping prediction on cross-machines can improve the yield of wafer dicing with a prediction accuracy of 93.21%, preserve the practical wearing of dicing kerfs, and significantly cut wafer manufacturing costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Prediction of outcomes following allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) remains a major challenge. Machine learning (ML) is a computational procedure that may facilitate the generation of HCT prediction models. We sought to investigate the prognostic potential of multiple ML algorithms when applied to a large single-center allogeneic HCT database. Methods: Our registry included 2,697 patients that underwent allogeneic HCT from January 1976 to December 2017. 45 pretransplant baseline variables were included in the predictive assessment of each ML algorithm on overall survival (OS) as determined by area under the curve (AUC). Pretransplant variables used in the EBMT ML study (Shouval et al., 2015) were used as a benchmark for comparison. Results: On the entire dataset, the random forest (RF) algorithm performed best (AUC 0.71 ± 0.04) compared to the second-best model, logistic regression (LR) (AUC = 0.69 ± 0.04) (p < 0.001). Both algorithms demonstrated improved AUC scores using all 45 variables compared to the limited variables examined by the EBMT study. Survival at 100 days post-HCT using RF on the full dataset discriminated patients into different prognostic groups with different 2-year OS (p < 0.0001). We then examined the ML methods that allow for significant individual variable identification, including LR and RF, and identified matched related donors (HR = 0.49, p < 0.0001), increasing TBI dose (HR = 1.60, p = 0.006), increasing recipient age (HR = 1.92, p < 0.0001), higher baseline Hb (HR = 0.59, p = 0.0002), and increased baseline FEV1 (HR = 0.73, p = 0.02), among others. Conclusion: The application of multiple ML techniques on single-center allogeneic HCT databases warrants further investigation and may provide a useful tool to identify variables with prognostic potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to rapid expansion in the global economy and industrialization, PM2.5 (particles smaller than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) pollution has become a key environmental issue. The public health and social development directly affected by high PM2.5 levels. In this paper, ambient PM2.5 concentrations along with meteorological data are forecasted using time series models, including random forest (RF), prophet forecasting model (PFM), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in Anhui province, China. The results indicate that the RF model outperformed the PFM and ARIMA in the prediction of PM2.5 concentrations, with cross-validation coefficients of determination R2, RMSE, and MAE values of 0.83, 10.39 µg/m3, and 6.83 µg/m3, respectively. PFM achieved the average results (R2 = 0.71, RMSE = 13.90 µg/m3, and MAE = 9.05 µg/m3), while the predicted results by ARIMA are comparatively poorer (R2 = 0.64, RMSE = 15.85 µg/m3, and MAE = 10.59 µg/m3) than RF and PFM. These findings reveal that the RF model is the most effective method for predicting PM2.5 and can be applied to other regions for new findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates both hourly and daily Downward Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) in Istanbul while determining the importance of variables on SSR using tree-based machine learning methods, namely Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosted Regression Tree (GBRT). The hourly and daily data of climatic factors for the period between January 2016 and December 2020 are gathered from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis data sets. In addition to the meteorology data, hourly data of selected aerosols are obtained from the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change. Temperature, cloud coverage, ozone level, precipitation, pressure, and two components of wind speeds, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2 are utilized to train and test the established models. The model performances are determined with the out-of-bag errors by calculating R-squared, MSE, RMSE, and MBE. The GBRT model is found to be the most accurate model with the lowest error rates. Furthermore, this study provides the variable importance in determining the SSR. Although all models provide different values for the variable importance; temperature, ozone level, cloud coverage, and precipitation are found to be the most important variables in estimating daily SSR. For the hourly estimation, the time of day (hour) becomes the most important factor in addition to temperature, ozone level, and cloud coverage. Finally, this study shows that the tree-based machine learning methods used with these variables to estimate hourly and daily SSR results are very accurate when it is not possible to measure the SSR values directly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In real-world classification problems, it is important to build accurate prediction models and provide information that can improve decision-making. Decision-support tools are often based on network models, and this article uses information encoded by social networks to solve the problem of employer turnover. However, understanding the factors behind black-box prediction models can be challenging. Our question was about the predictability of employee turnover, given information from the multilayer network that describes collaborations and perceptions that assess the performance of organizations that indicate the success of cooperation. Our goal was to develop an accurate prediction procedure, preserve the interpretability of the classification, and capture the wide variety of specific reasons that explain positive cases. After a feature engineering, we identified variables with the best predictive power using decision trees and ranked them based on their added value considering their frequent co-occurrence. We applied the Random Forest using the SMOTE balancing technique for prediction. We calculated the SHAP values to identify the variables that contribute the most to individual predictions. As a last step, we clustered the sample based on SHAP values to fine-tune the explanations for quitting due to different background factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a vital role in ensuring the safe, efficient, and economical operation of power systems. Accurate load forecasting provides numerous benefits for power suppliers, such as cost reduction, increased reliability, and informed decision-making. However, STLF is a complex task due to various factors, including non-linear trends, multiple seasonality, variable variance, and significant random interruptions in electricity demand time series. To address these challenges, advanced techniques and models are required. This study focuses on the development of an efficient short-term power load forecasting model using the random forest (RF) algorithm. RF combines regression trees through bagging and random subspace techniques to improve prediction accuracy and reduce model variability. The algorithm constructs a forest of trees using bootstrap samples and selects random feature subsets at each node to enhance diversity. Hyperparameters such as the number of trees, minimum sample leaf size, and maximum features for each split are tuned to optimize forecasting results. The proposed model was tested using historical hourly load data from four transformer substations supplying different campus areas of the University of Beira Interior, Portugal. The training data were from January 2018 to December 2021, while the data from 2022 were used for testing. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the RF model in forecasting short-term hourly and one day ahead load and its potential to enhance decision-making processes in smart grid operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate well productivity prediction plays a significant role in formulating reservoir development plans. However, traditional well productivity prediction methods lack accuracy in tight gas reservoirs; therefore, this paper quantitatively evaluates the correlations between absolute open flow and the critical parameters for Linxing tight gas reservoirs through statistical analysis. Dominant control factors are obtained by considering reservoir engineering theories, and a novel machine learning-based well productivity prediction method is proposed for tight gas reservoirs. The adaptability of the productivity prediction model is assessed through machine learning and field data analysis. Combined with the typical decline curve analysis, the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of a single well in the tight gas reservoir is forecasted in an appropriate range. The results of the study include 10 parameters (such as gas saturation) identified as the dominant controlling factors for well productivity and geological factors that impact the productivity in this area compared to fracturing parameters. According to the prediction results of the three models, the R2 of Support Vector Regression (SVR), Back Propagation (BP), and Random Forest (RF) models are 0.72, 0.87, and 0.91, respectively. The results indicate that RF has a more accurate prediction. In addition, the RF model is more suitable for medium and high-production wells based on the actual field data. Based on this model, it is verified that the productivity of low-producing wells is affected by water production. This study confirms the model's reliability and application value by predicting recoverable reserves for a single well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a great need for an accurate short‐term wind speed forecast, and statistical forecasts have gained increased popularity for their computational efficiency and satisfactory skill. However, there has been no systematic research to fully explore the capabilities of statistical approaches and evaluate the applicability of probabilistic information from statistical ensemble. This study first compares the skills of different statistical methods, based on linear regression, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL), using three strategies (i.e., direct, recursive, and multi‐output) against the three operational numerical models and their bias‐corrections, for short‐term wind speed forecast over Pearl River Estuary during 2018–2021. Inter‐comparison between statistical forecasts reveals the dominant superiority of direct strategy. On this basis, Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) perform best compared to other statistical forecasts and bias correction of numerical forecasts throughout 48 hr lead time, while the performance of methods with simplified (linear) or more complex (DL) model structures degrades significantly. Moreover, the top 10 forecasts are utilized to account for forecast uncertainties but present a substantial under‐dispersed prediction. Two traditional methods and three modern methods are implemented to perform probabilistic post‐processing. Modern methods based on ML or DL present worse skills, while traditional methods, particularly for ensemble model output statistics, show added value in discriminating binary events due to limited enhancements in calibration. Overall, RF and SVM using direct strategy are highly recommended for short‐term wind speed forecasts, and efforts are ongoing to address the issues of strong wind prediction and ensemble calibration. Plain Language Summary: Accurate short‐term wind speed forecasts are of urgent need for various facets of production‐living‐ecology. Numerical models are widely implemented for providing a single prediction (i.e., deterministic) or a suite of predictions (i.e., ensemble). However, they are computationally expensive and suffer from multi‐source uncertainties. On the contrary, statistical forecasts have gained increased popularity for their computational efficiency and satisfactory performance. However, there has been no systematic research to fully explore the capabilities of deterministic statistical methods and evaluate the applicability of probabilistic information from statistical ensemble, which motivates this study. Intercomparison between statistical forecasts reveals the importance of using direct strategy, which allows for the development of a distinct model for each time step of the forecast. Random Forest and Support Vector Machines using direct strategy are superior to other statistical forecasts and bias‐correction of numerical forecasts within 48 hr lead time. In addition, five probabilistic post‐processing methods are implemented on the statistical ensemble, which is underdispersed due to a lack of diversity. The traditional ensemble model output statistics shows improvements in capturing binary events, while modern methods even have the opposite effect. Overall, this study improves the understanding and performance of the statistical wind speed forecasting. Key Points: Inter‐comparison between statistical forecasts reveals the dominant superiority of direct strategy in short‐term wind speed forecastingRandom Forest and Support Vector Machines utilizing the direct strategy are more skilled than other statistical forecasts and bias‐correction of numerical forecastsThe statistical ensemble shows a substantial under‐dispersed prediction, which is sort of mitigated using traditional ensemble model output statistics post‐processing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article proposes to use machine learning as one of the areas of artificial intelligence to forecast the volume of biogas production from household organic waste. The use of five regression algorithms (Linear Regression, Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression, Random Forest Regression, and Gradient Boosting Regression) to create an effective model for forecasting the volume of biogas production from household organic waste is considered. Based on the comparison of these algorithms by MSE and MAE indicators, the quality of training and their accuracy during forecasting are evaluated. The proposed algorithm for creating a model for forecasting biogas production volumes from household organic waste involves the implementation of 10 main and 3 auxiliary steps. Their advantage is that they aid in the performance of component data analysis, which is carried out based on the method of reducing the dimensionality of the data set, increasing interpretability, and minimizing the risk of data loss. An analysis of 2433 data is was carried out, which characterizes the formation of biogas from food (FW) and yard waste (YW) according to four features. Data preparation is performed using the Jupyter Notebook environment in Python. We select five machine learning algorithms to substantiate an effective model for forecasting volumes of biogas production from household organic waste. On the basis of the conducted research, the main advantages and disadvantages of the used algorithms for building forecasting models of biogas production volumes from household organic waste are determined. It is found that two models, "Random Forest Regressor" and "Gradient Boosting Regressor", show the best accuracy indicators. The other three models (Linear Regression, Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression) are inferior in accuracy and were not considered further. To determine the accuracy of the "Random Forest Regressor" and "Gradient Boosting Regressor" models, we choose the MSE and MAE indicators. The Random Forest Regressor model is found to be a more accurate model compared to the Gradient Boosting Regressor. This is confirmed by the fact that the MSE of the "Random Forest Regressor" model on the training data set is 7.14 times smaller than that of the "Gradient Boosting Regressor" model. At the same time, MAE is 2.67 times smaller in the "Random Forest Regressor" model than in the "Gradient Boosting Regressor" model. The MSE and MAE of both models are worse on the test data set, which indicates overtraining tendencies. The Gradient Boosting Regressor model has worse MSE and MAE than the Random Forest Regressor model on both the training and test data sets. It is established that the model based on the "Random Forest Regressor" algorithm is the most effective for forecasting the volume of biogas production from household organic waste. It provides MAE = 0.088 on test data and the smallest absolute errors in predictions. Further systematic improvement of the "Random Forest Regressor" model for forecasting biogas production volumes from household organic waste based on new data will ensure its accuracy and maintain competitive advantages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, people have reduced eating out, resulting in a severe drop in the revenue of the catering industry. Health risks have become a major factor affecting the revenue of this industry. Predicting the revenue of the catering industry during the COVID-19 pandemic will not only allow practitioners to adjust their business strategies, but also provide a reference for governments to formulate relief measures. To this end, this study proposes a fuzzy big data analytics approach in which random forests, recursive feature elimination, fuzzy c-means, and deep neural networks are jointly applied. First, random forests and recursive feature elimination are used to select the most influential factors. The data is then divided into clusters by fuzzy c-means. Subsequently, a deep neural network is built for each cluster to make predictions. The prediction results of individual clusters are then aggregated to improve prediction accuracy. The proposed methodology has been applied to forecast the revenue of the catering industry in Taiwan. The results of the experiment showed that the impact of new deaths on the revenue of the catering industry was far greater than the number of newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty presents unfamiliar circumstances or incomplete information that may be difficult to handle with a single model of a traditional machine learning algorithm. They are possibly limited by inadequate data, an ambiguous model, and learning performance to make a prediction. Therefore, ensemble modeling is proposed as a powerful model for enhancing predictive capabilities and robustness. This study aims to apply Bayesian prediction to ensemble modeling because it can encode conditional dependencies between variables and present the reasoning model using the BMIC model. The BMIC has clarified knowledge in the model which is ready for learning. Then, it was selected as the base model to be integrated with well-known algorithms such as logistic regression, K-nearest neighbors, decision trees, random forests, support vector machines (SVMs), neural networks, naive Bayes, and XGBoost classifiers. Also, the Bayesian neural network (BNN) and the probabilistic Bayesian neural network (PBN) were considered to compare their performance as a single model. The findings of this study indicate that the ensemble model of the BMIC with some traditional algorithms, which are SVM, random forest, neural networks, and XGBoost classifiers, returns 96.3% model accuracy in prediction. It provides a more reliable model and a versatile approach to support decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A machine learning-based approach is applied to simulate and forecast forest fires in the Golestan province in Iran. A dataset for no-fire, medium confidence (MC) fire events, and high confidence (HC) fire events is constructed from MODIS-MOD14A2. Nine climate variables from NASA's FLDAS are used as input variables, and 12 dates and 915 study points are considered. Three machine learning ensemble multi-label classifiers, gradient boosting (GBC), random forest (RFC), and extremely randomized tree (ETC), are used for forest fire simulation for the period 2000 to 2021, and ETC is found to be the most accurate classifier. Future fire projection for the near-future period of 2030 to 2050 is carried out with the ETC model, using CMIP6 EC-Earth3-SSP245 General Circulation Model (GCM) data. It is projected that MC forest fire occurrences will decrease, while HC forest fire occurrences will increase, and that the summer months, especially September, will be the most affected by fire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to forecast New York and Los Angeles gasoline spot prices on a daily frequency. The dataset includes gasoline prices and a big set of 128 other relevant variables spanning the period from 17 February 2004 to 26 March 2022. These variables were fed to three tree-based machine learning algorithms: decision trees, random forest, and XGBoost. Furthermore, a variable importance measure (VIM) technique was applied to identify and rank the most important explanatory variables. The optimal model, a trained random forest, achieves a mean absolute percent error (MAPE) in the out-of-sample of 3.23% for the New York and 3.78% for the Los Angeles gasoline spot prices. The first lag, AR (1), of gasoline is the most important variable in both markets; the top five variables are all energy-related. This paper can strengthen the understanding of price determinants and has the potential to inform strategic decisions and policy directions within the energy sector, making it a valuable asset for both industry practitioners and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gender prediction based on names is an important task with various applications. In this study, we used the PhoBERT model to predict gender and compared its performance with traditional classifiers such as Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Random Forest. We evaluated the performance of these methods on the GenderVN 1.0 dataset, which consists of over 3 million Vietnamese name samples. Additionally, we analyzed the impact of removing family names or using only middle names on the prediction results. The experimental results showed that the PhoBERT model outperformed traditional classifiers, achieving an accuracy of 92.3%, compared to 90.9% for previously applied methods on the GenderVN 1.0 dataset. This study also demonstrates that using the PhoBERT model for this task can lead to reduced training data requirements without compromising prediction accuracy. These findings contribute to the advancement of gender prediction methodologies and establish a solid groundwork for future research in this domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To increase an accuracy of the sleep stage estimation without connecting any devices/electrodes to the body, this paper proposes the updating method for its estimation according to an ultradian rhythm as one of the biological rhythms of humans. In the proposed method, the prediction probability of the sleep stage is updated by the Widrow–Hoff learning rule which is generally employed in the update of reinforcement learning. Through the human subject experiment which acquired the biological vibration data from the mattress sensor during sleep, the following implications have been revealed: (1) the accuracy and the quadratic weighted kappa (QWK) of the sleep stage estimation updated by the proposed method are higher than those of random forest (RF) as the conventional method; (2) the multiple update of the probability of the sleep stage according to the ultradian rhythm is significantly important to improve its accuracy and QWK; and (3) compared with RF which over-estimated the NR2 stage while less-estimated the NR1 and NR3 stages, the proposed method contributes to correctly estimating the NR1–3 stages thank to the follow of the ultradian rhythm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, heart diseases have become a leading cause of mortality worldwide and it affects a huge number of individuals. The early and accurate prediction of heart disease risk factors plays a crucial role in preventing opposing results. Additionally, it is necessary to recognize heart disease quickly and accurately by analyzing patient's data. This paper proposed a novel approach for predicting heart disease through machine learning techniques. The proposed Bat Algorithm (BA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) based Random Forest (RF), named BAPSO-RF is utilized for selecting optimum features that can enhance the heart-disease prediction accuracy. The proposed BAPSO-RF is evaluated on UCI heart disease dataset which contains 14 attributes and 270 records. The proposed BAPSO-RF model attains better results by utilizing metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, and f1-score values of about 98.71%, 98.67%, 98.23%, and 98.45% correspondingly which ensures early and accurate prediction of heart disease compared to existing techniques like hybrid of Genetic Algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with Random Forest (GAPSO-RF), stacked Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Genetic Algorithm with Radial Basis Function (GA-RBF). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The river stage is certainly an important indicator of how the water level fluctuates overtime. Continuous control of the water stage can help build an early warning indicator of floods along rivers and streams. Hence, forecasting river stages up to several days in advance is very important and constitutes a challenging task. Over the past few decades, the use of machine learning paradigm to investigate complex hydrological systems has gained significant importance, and forecasting river stage is one of the promising areas of investigations. Traditional in situ measurements, which are sometime restricted by the existing of several handicaps especially in terms of regular access to any points alongside the streams and rivers, can be overpassed by the use of modeling approaches. For more accurate forecasting of river stages, we suggest a new modeling framework based on machine learning. A hybrid forecasting approach was developed by combining machine learning techniques, namely random forest regression (RFR), bootstrap aggregating (Bagging), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN), with empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to provide a robust forecasting model. The singles models were first applied using only the river stage data without preprocessing, and in the following step, the data were decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMF), which were then used as new input variables. According to the obtained results, the proposed models showed improved results compared to the standard RFR without EMD for which, the error performances metrics were drastically reduced, and the correlation index was increased remarkably and great changes in models' performances have taken place. The RFR_EMD, Bagging_EMD, and AdaBoost_EMD were less accurate than the ANN_EMD model, which had higher R≈0.974, NSE≈0.949, RMSE≈0.330 and MAE≈0.175 values. While the RFR_EMD and the Bagging_EMD were relatively equal and exhibited the same accuracies higher than the AdaBoost_EMD, the superiority of the ANN_EMD was obvious. The proposed model shows the potential for combining signal decomposition with machine learning, which can serve as a basis for new insights into river stage forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a core component of the smart grid, capacitive equipment plays a critical role in modern power systems. When defects occur, they pose a significant threat to the safety of both other equipment and personnel. Hence, it is of great significance to predict whether defects occur in capacitive equipment in advance. To achieve this goal, we propose a novel method that integrates the weight of evidence (WOE) feature encoding with machine learning (ML). Five models, including support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), and linear classification, are employed with WOE features for defect prediction. Furthermore, based on the prediction of equipment with defects, an additional prediction is conducted to determine the potential defect level of the equipment. Experimental results demonstrate that the performance of each algorithm significantly improves with WOE encoding features. Particularly, the RF model with WOE encoding features exhibits optimal performance. In conclusion, the proposed method offers a promising solution for predicting the occurrence of defects and the corresponding defect levels of capacitive equipment. It enables relevant personnel to focus on and inspect equipment predicted to be at risk of defects, thereby preventing major malfunctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One important aspect of solar radiation that has a direct impact on atmospheric processes, climatic conditions, and energy generation is direct normal irradiance. The integration of solar geometry, geographic location, and atmospheric characteristics is required for the prediction of Direct Normal Irradiance. Predicting Direct Normal Irradiance is essential for maximizing the efficiency of solar power plants in the field of renewable energy. Precise predictions facilitate the efficient assimilation of solar electricity into the electrical grid, augmenting energy production and maintaining system stability. This study uses the Genetic algorithm, Moth Flame Optimization, and Ant Lion Optimizer to optimize the Random Forest model. The basic approach for this study is provided as a novel hybrid method by combining Ant Lion Optimizer with Random Forest, which has the best performance outcome compared to other created models. The data used is from June 1, 2022, to July 30, 2023. In presenting this study, many aspects have been considered, including the coefficient of determination, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, and mean absolute error. The proposed model's findings with the highest amount of R-squared have shown satisfactory performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Petroleum production forecasting involves the anticipation of fluid production from wells based on historical data. Compared to traditional empirical, statistical, or reservoir simulation-based models, machine learning techniques leverage inherent relationships among historical dynamic data to predict future production. These methods are characterized by readily available parameters, fast computational speeds, high precision, and time–cost advantages, making them widely applicable in oilfield production. In this study, time series forecast models utilizing robust and efficient machine learning techniques are formulated for the prediction of production. We have fused the two-stage data preprocessing methods and the attention mechanism into the temporal convolutional network-gated recurrent unit (TCN-GRU) model. Firstly, the random forest (RF) algorithm is employed to extract key dynamic production features that influence output, serving to reduce data dimensionality and mitigate overfitting. Next, the mode decomposition algorithm, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), is introduced. It employs a decomposition–reconstruction approach to segment production data into high-frequency noise components, low-frequency regular components and trend components. These segments are then individually subjected to prediction tasks, facilitating the model's ability to capture more accurate intrinsic relationships among the data. Finally, the TCN-GRU-MA model, which integrates a multi-head attention (MA) mechanism, is utilized for production forecasting. In this model, the TCN module is employed to capture temporal data features, while the attention mechanism assigns varying weights to highlight the most critical influencing factors. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model achieves outstanding predictive performance. Compared to the best-performing comparative model, it exhibits a reduction in RMSE by 3%, MAE by 1.6%, MAPE by 12.7%, and an increase in R2 by 2.6% in Case 1. Similarly, in Case 2, there is a 7.7% decrease in RMSE, 7.7% in MAE, 11.6% in MAPE, and a 4.7% improvement in R2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As massive underground projects have become popular in dense urban cities, a problem has arisen: which model predicts the best for Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) performance in these tunneling projects? However, performance level of TBMs in complex geological conditions is still a great challenge for practitioners and researchers. On the other hand, a reliable and accurate prediction of TBM performance is essential to planning an applicable tunnel construction schedule. The performance of TBM is very difficult to estimate due to various geotechnical and geological factors and machine specifications. The previously-proposed intelligent techniques in this field are mostly based on a single or base model with a low level of accuracy. Hence, this study aims to introduce a hybrid random forest (RF) technique optimized by global harmony search with generalized opposition-based learning (GOGHS) for forecasting TBM advance rate (AR). Optimizing the RF hyper-parameters in terms of, e.g., tree number and maximum tree depth is the main objective of using the GOGHS-RF model. In the modelling of this study, a comprehensive database with the most influential parameters on TBM together with TBM AR were used as input and output variables, respectively. To examine the capability and power of the GOGHS-RF model, three more hybrid models of particle swarm optimization-RF, genetic algorithm-RF and artificial bee colony-RF were also constructed to forecast TBM AR. Evaluation of the developed models was performed by calculating several performance indices, including determination coefficient (R²), root-mean-square-error (RMSE), and mean-absolute-percentage-error (MAPE). The results showed that the GOGHS-RF is amore accurate technique for estimating TBMAR compared to the other applied models. The newly-developed GOGHS-RF model enjoyed R² = 0.9937 and 0.9844, respectively, for train and test stages, which are higher than a pre-developed RF. Also, the importance of the input parameters was interpreted through the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method, and it was found that thrust force per cutter is the most important variable on TBMAR. The GOGHS-RF model can be used in mechanized tunnel projects for predicting and checking performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heart failure is a complex cardiovascular condition characterized by the heart's inability to pump blood effectively, leading to a cascade of physiological changes. Predicting survival in heart failure patients is crucial for optimizing patient care and resource allocation. This research aims to develop a robust survival prediction model for heart failure patients using advanced machine learning techniques. We analyzed data from 299 hospitalized heart failure patients, addressing the issue of imbalanced data with the Synthetic Minority Oversampling (SMOTE) method. Additionally, we proposed a novel transfer learning-based feature engineering approach that generates a new probabilistic feature set from patient data using ensemble trees. Nine fine-tuned machine learning models are built and compared to evaluate performance in patient survival prediction. Our novel transfer learning mechanism applied to the random forest model outperformed other models and state-of-the-art studies, achieving a remarkable accuracy of 0.975. All models underwent evaluation using 10-fold cross-validation and tuning through hyperparameter optimization. The findings of this study have the potential to advance the field of cardiovascular medicine by providing more accurate and personalized prognostic assessments for individuals with heart failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]