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Sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the East China Sea–Kuroshio (EK) region has important implications for the surrounding weather, climate, and marine ecology. The year-to-year variations of the EK SST are expectedly linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the predominant predictability source of seasonal-to-interannual climate variability. Surprisingly, no significant SST signal is observed in the EK region when focusing on the ENSO autumn–winter season with the persistent and pronounced SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific. We find that a remarkable seasonal reversal appears in the ENSO–EK SST connection, shifting from a negative relationship in autumn [Aug(0)–Oct(0)] to a positive relationship in winter [Dec(0)–Feb(1)]. This reversal is mainly attributed to the seasonally varying ENSO-associated western North Pacific (WNP) atmospheric circulation patterns. During ENSO autumns, the anomalous WNP anticyclone is confined south of 20°N, which is accompanied with cyclonic circulation anomalies in the EK region. The associated anomalous northerly wind tends to enhance the background northerly wind, thereby facilitating the local SST cooling mainly via the wind–evaporation–SST effect. In the subsequent winter, the ENSO-related WNP anticyclonic anomalies intensify and extend toward the EK region. Consequently, the weakened background northerly wind induced by southerly wind anomalies leads to the increase of downward latent and sensible heat flux in the EK region, fostering the local SST warming. The observed seasonal reversal of ENSO impacts can be evidenced by the tropical Pacific pacemaker experiments, emphasizing the importance of seasonally modulated ENSO teleconnection and holding implications for the local SST climate prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the prominent influence of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Indian Ocean Oscillation (IOD) is widely recognized, intricate relationships between them are often invoked that introduce challenges into seasonal predictions. Previous studies have shown that different flavors of El Niño exhibit distinct associations with the IOD. In this study, we demonstrate that La Niña's teleconnection to the IOD is primarily controlled by its longitudinal position. Westward‐displaced La Niña events tend to produce stronger negative convection anomalies in the central Pacific and more pronounced Walk Circulation anomalies, thereby triggering strong negative IOD events. In contrast, eastward‐displaced La Niña events are usually accompanied by feeble convection response due to the excessively cold conditions in the cold tongue, yielding insignificant IOD response. The pivotal role of La Niña's longitudinal position on the IOD's response is realistically reproduced by targeted pacemaker experiments, providing new insights into inter‐basin climate connections. Plain Language Summary: The tropical Indian Ocean usually witnesses a dipolar pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which is commonly referred to as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD phenomenon has received much attention due to its profound global impacts, yet its seasonal prediction remains a large challenge for the climate community. The year‐to‐year variability of IOD has usually been linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the predominant interannual climate variability in the tropical Pacific. The relationship between El Niño (i.e., warm phase of ENSO) and the intensity of IOD has been demonstrated in previous studies, which is shown to be dependent on the different El Niño flavors. In this study, we show that the longitudinal position of negative SST anomalies during La Niña events (i.e., cold phase of ENSO) in shaping their connection with IOD. Different from westward‐displaced La Niña events that can drive robust negative IOD events, eastward‐displaced La Niña events do not yield significant IOD anomalies due to the excessively cold conditions prevalent in the eastern Pacific cold tongue region. We highlight the importance of La Niña's longitudinal position in its teleconnection to other ocean basins and the associated regional climate anomalies. Key Points: The La Niña's regulation of Indian Ocean Oscillation (IOD) mainly depends on the La Niña longitudinal positionThe westward‐displaced La Niña events produce significant Walker Circulation anomalies, triggering robust negative IOD eventThe importance of La Niña longitudinal position on the IOD's response can be evidenced by the targeted pacemaker experiments [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Westerly wind bursts (WWBs), aperiodic burst-like atmospheric disturbances in the tropics, play an important role during the development stage of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and in turn can be strongly modulated by ENSO itself. Previous work argued that WWBs exhibit a pronounced seasonality at the equator during an El Niño evolution, i.e., being more frequent and vigorous during the developing boreal autumn compared to the decaying spring. Here we show that this seasonal difference in WWB activity at the equator is a segmentary manifestation of a meridional migration of WWB activity, which is closely linked to the southward displacement of the El Niño-related deep convection from the developing autumn to decaying spring. The highest climatological SSTs over the western-central Pacific are located mainly to the north of the equator in boreal autumn and south of it during boreal spring; hence the equatorially quasi-symmetric El Niño-related SST anomalies tend to induce deep convection and generate more WWBs in the Northern Hemisphere during the developing autumn and more in the Southern Hemisphere during the decaying spring. Despite some differences in the zonal distribution and intensity, there appears a close resemblance between the seasonal-varying features of WWBs during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events regarding the north–south displacement, due to similar meridional shifts of deep convection anomalies. This study provides a more comprehensive picture of the spatiotemporal characteristics of WWBs during El Niño events and improves our understanding of the relationship between ENSO and high-frequency atmospheric variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) has long been associated with extra‐tropical air‐sea coupling processes, which are thought to influence the development of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we show that the PMM on seasonal to interannual timescales is closely associated with a newly proposed tropical mode known as the ENSO Combination mode (C‐mode), which arises from the nonlinear interaction between ENSO and the background annual cycle in the deep tropics. The PMM exhibits a remarkable resemblance with the C‐mode in atmospheric patterns, spectral characteristics, and local impacts. Based on a simple Hasselmann‐type model, we further demonstrate that the C‐mode‐related atmospheric anomalies can effectively drive PMM‐like sea surface temperature anomalies. As the C‐mode captures seasonally modulated ENSO characteristics, the seasonal‐to‐interannual PMM variability could naturally establish a connection with ENSO, thereby offering an alternative explanation for the observed relationship between PMM and ENSO. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies demonstrated that the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) is driven by the extratropical climate systems, which can impact the development of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the tropics. In our study, we establish a close connection between the PMM on seasonal‐to‐interannual timescales and a tropical atmospheric mode arising from the nonlinear interaction between ENSO and the background annual cycle (the ENSO Combination mode, C‐mode). The C‐mode closely resembles the PMM in terms of atmospheric patterns and spectral characteristics. We further demonstrate that the C‐mode could drive a PMM‐like SST pattern in the tropical Pacific. Consequently, we suggest that the PMM on seasonal‐to‐interannual timescales has tropical origins, thereby offering an alternative explanation for the relationship between the conventional PMM index and the mature phase of ENSO. Key Points: The spatiotemporal features of Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) on seasonal‐to‐interannual timescales exhibit a remarkable resemblance with those of the tropical combination modeC‐mode‐related atmospheric anomalies are capable of inducing PMM‐like sea surface temperature changes in the tropical PacificEl Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)'s interaction with the annual cycle manifests in PMM‐related air‐sea conditions, which explains the observed ENSO‐PMM linkage [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits highly asymmetric temporal evolutions between its warm and cold phases. While El Niño events usually terminate rapidly after their mature phase and show an already established transition into the cold phase by the following summer, many La Niña events tend to persist throughout the second year and even reintensify in the ensuing winter. While many mechanisms were proposed, no consensus has been reached yet and the essential physical processes responsible for the multiyear behavior of La Niña remain to be illustrated. Here, we show that a unique ocean physical process operates during multiyear La Niña events. It is characterized by rapid double reversals of zonal ocean current anomalies in the equatorial Pacific and exhibits a fairly regular near-annual periodicity. Mixed-layer heat budget analyses reveal comparable contributions of the thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks to the SST anomaly growth in the first year of multiyear La Niña events; however, the zonal advective feedback plays a dominant role in the reintensification of La Niña events. Furthermore, the unique ocean process is identified to be closely associated with the preconditioning heat content state in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific before the first year of La Niña, which has been shown in previous studies to play an active role in setting the stage for the future reintensification of La Niña. Despite systematic underestimation, the above oceanic process can be broadly reproduced by state-of-the-art climate models, providing a potential additional source of predictability for the multiyear La Niña events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the interaction between the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans has challenged the climate community for decades. Typically, boreal summer Atlantic Niño events are followed by vigorous Pacific events of opposite sign around two seasons later. However, incorporating the equatorial Atlantic information to variabilities internal to the Pacific lends no significant additional predictive skill for the subsequent El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we resolve this conundrum in a physically consistent frame, in which the nascent onset of a Pacific event rapidly induces an opposite‐signed summer equatorial Atlantic event and the lead correlation of Atlantic over Pacific is a statistical artifact of ENSO's autocorrelation. This Pacific‐to‐Atlantic impact is limited to a short window around late spring due to seasonally‐amplified Atlantic atmosphere‐ocean coupling. This new frame reconciles the discrepancies between the observed and multi‐model simulated inter‐basin relationship, providing a major advance in understanding seasonally‐modulated inter‐basin climate connections as well as their predictability. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies interpreted the observed lead/lag relationship between Atlantic Niño/Niña and Pacific Niño/Niña sea surface temperature anomalies as evidence for a precursory role of the equatorial Atlantic on the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. This study clearly demonstrates that this statistical relationship is not related to Atlantic‐to‐Pacific causality, but can rather be explained by seasonally modulated equatorial Atlantic's response to ENSO. We find that Pacific ENSO events drive equatorial Atlantic events rather than vice versa, and reconcile the apparent discrepancies between the observed and multi‐model simulated tropical Pacific/Atlantic relationship. Key Points: The lead correlation of the equatorial Atlantic over the Pacific is not related to Atlantic‐to‐Pacific causalityThe tropical Pacific/Atlantic interaction is consistent with the nascent onset of Pacific events driving the equatorial Atlantic eventsThe discrepancies between the observed and multi‐model simulated tropical Pacific/Atlantic relationship can be reconciled in this new frame [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The three strongest positive Indian Ocean dipole (pIOD) events over the past four decades occurred in 1994, 1997, and 2019 and caused severe social-economic impacts in the Indian Ocean (IO) rim countries. These three strongest positive pIOD events exhibited similar oceanic and atmospheric anomaly patterns during their mature phase, though with different physical origins. The extreme amplitudes of these pIOD events were closely related to concurrent El Niño or Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) activity. For the 1997 extreme pIOD case, the concurrent extreme El Niño in the Pacific triggered strong easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial IO and therefore favored the rapid growth of the pIOD via intense upwelling along the Sumatra-Java coast. In contrast, the long stalled MJO convective anomalies over the western IO exerted an important role in the 2019 extreme pIOD event especially during September–October by causing easterly anomalies over the equatorial IO. During that year, the Pacific moderate warming had likely a small impact since no strong associated convection was present over the western and central equatorial Pacific due to the small amplitude of the Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Different from the 1997 and 2019 cases, both El Niño conditions in the Pacific as well as MJO activity over the western IO contributed to the 1994 extreme pIOD event. Our results emphasize that MJO activity should be considered as one physical drivers for the extreme pIOD event in addition to the traditional El Niño-associated forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study demonstrates the main physical mechanism for the maintenance of the western North Pacific (WNP) anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) during the El Niño decaying summer by analyzing the respective effects of the cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the WNP, the warm SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean (IO), and the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) combination mode. We find that the WNPAC is usually accompanied by significant cold WNP SST anomalies in the El Niño mature winter and following spring, which almost disappear in the decaying summer and cannot explain the maintenance of the WNPAC in summer. The influence of the IO warm SST anomalies on the WNPAC exhibits conspicuous decadal differences. Before the 2000s, the IO warm SST anomalies play a role in the WNPAC maintenance through the response of the baroclinic atmospheric Kelvin wave; however, this effect cannot be evidently detected after the 2000s. This decadal difference may be related to changes in the decaying speed of ENSO events. In contrast to El Niño events before the 2000s, El Niño events after the 2000s decay more rapidly, and the associated tropical central-eastern Pacific SST features a La Niña-like condition in the El Niño decaying summer. Concomitantly, no significant warm SST anomalies appear over the tropical Indian Ocean, exerting a weak influence on the WNPAC. Relative to the cold WNP SST anomalies and warm IO SST anomalies, the ENSO combination mode, originating from the nonlinear interaction between ENSO and the annual cycle, has a relatively more stable relationship with the WNPAC during the El Niño decaying summer, which exhibits a crucial role in the maintenance of the WNPAC. Considering the persistence of the ENSO combination mode, the WNPAC and associated climate variability during the El Niño decaying summer can be skillfully predicted at least one season in advance based on the ENSO combination mode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current climate models have relatively high skills in predicting El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (i.e., El Niño, neutral, and La Niña), once leaping over the spring predictability barrier. However, it is still a big challenge to realistically forecast the ENSO amplitude, for instance, whether a predicted event will be strong, moderate, or weak. Here we demonstrate that the accumulated westerly wind events (WWEs)/easterly wind surges (EWSs) and oceanic recharged/discharged states are both of importance in accurate ENSO amplitude forecasts. El Niño and La Niña events exhibit asymmetric temporal and spatial features in the atmospheric and oceanic preconditions. El Niño amplitude at the peak season is closely associated with the accumulated WWEs over the eastern equatorial Pacific from the previous December to May and the recharged state in the western equatorial Pacific during February. In contrast, the amplitude of La Niña events is sensitive to the accumulated EWSs over the equatorial western Pacific from the previous November to April and the discharged state extending from the equatorial western to central Pacific during February. Considering these asymmetric atmospheric and oceanic preconditions of El Niño and La Niña cases, a statistical model is established to accurately forecast the ENSO amplitude at its mature phase during 1982–2018, which is validated to be robust based on a 1-yr cross-validation and independent sample tests. The feasibility and the limitation of the established statistical model are also discussed by examining its practical utility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quasi‐decadal (QD) climate variability is detected in the tropical Pacific based on the recent 70 years of observations. This QD variability is identified in equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the pattern of which resembles the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but extends further meridionally to the northeastern subtropical Pacific. Whereas equatorial upper‐ocean heat content and SSTs are in quadrature for ENSO, these two quantities are almost in phase on the QD timescale. Further analysis shows that nonlinear dynamical heating, primarily originating from strong El Niño events, tends to lead QD SSTs by a quarter of its dominant period (approximately 30 months) and shapes the dominant QD periodicity in observations. Our results suggest that the observed QD variability largely originates from ENSO nonlinearity and thus is fundamentally different from ENSO's oscillatory nature. Plain Language Summary: The climate variability of the tropical Pacific atmosphere‐ocean system profoundly influences the global weather and climate patterns on a wide range of temporal scales. The dynamical understanding of interannual climate variability dominated by the well‐known El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena has established a promising way for the operational seasonal to interannual climate prediction. So far, nevertheless, there is still a lack of consensus for the understanding of tropical Pacific decadal climate variability despite the increasing desire for climatic information on longer timescales. In this article, we illustrate the evolution features and possible governing mechanisms of a prominent quasi‐decadal (QD) variability in the tropical Pacific with the utilization of an advanced spectrum approach and reliable observational data sets. The results show that this QD variability that makes up a substantial portion of tropical Pacific low‐frequency variance is largely equatorial originated from the ENSO nonlinearity, which is dynamically different from the oscillatory nature of the ENSO phenomenon. Our study has important implications for the decadal climate prediction and improving the representations of tropical Pacific decadal variability in climate models. Key Points: Observations show that CP‐ENSO‐like quasi‐decadal variability originates in the equatorial Pacific and extends to the off‐equatorial regionThe equatorial ocean heat content and sea surface temperature are in phase on quasi‐decadal timescales, whereas they are in quadrature for interannual ENSOEquatorial nonlinear dynamical heating is proposed as the dynamical origin of the quasi‐decadal variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to influence the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) during its decaying spring, providing an essential source of NTA predictability. However, the positive ENSO–NTA SST relationship is absent during boreal winter, impeding accurate anticipation of wintertime NTA SST fluctuations. We find that this absence is mainly due to different NTA preconditions. Taking into account the previous summer NTA SST state as an initial condition, a robust relationship is established between ENSO and wintertime NTA SST variability. Furthermore, we show that the NTA initial conditions are in part traced to the ENSO preconditions. Besides, the simultaneous local atmospheric conditions play a role in shaping the initial NTA SST variabilities, especially in the developing summer of El Niño events. The understanding of the complicated ENSO–wintertime NTA SST relationship has implications for exploring trans‐basin climate interactions and associated climate predictability. Plain Language Summary: One of the most striking features of the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) variability is its pronounced dependency on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO remote effects are felt in the NTA SST a few months after the mature phase. However, an absence of statistically significant linkage between wintertime NTA SST anomalies and ENSO largely limits our understanding of the wintertime climatic variations over the NTA sector. In this study, we show that a robust positive linkage exists between ENSO and NTA SST variability during winter in light of the NTA SST tendency, and the previous summer NTA SST state as an initial condition acts to explain the complicated ENSO–wintertime NTA SST relationship. We also discuss about the possible dynamical origins of the NTA initial conditions, which are attributable to the preceding ENSO conditions as well as the simultaneous local atmospheric conditions. Key Points: A robust linkage between ENSO and wintertime NTA SST variability could be established by considering the previous summer NTA SST stateThe NTA initial state is in part traced to the preceding ENSO conditions, and also partially attributable to the local disturbanceThe understanding of the ENSO–wintertime NTA SST relationship has implications for extending the seasonal predictability for the NTA SST [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present work investigates leading modes of winter fog days over eastern China and possible association with sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, two dominant interannual modes of winter fog days are identified: a monopole mode and a meridional dipole mode. The monopole mode displays a significantly positive relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The meridional dipole mode is closely linked to North Atlantic tripole (NAT) SST anomalies. A quasi-barotropic Rossby wave train can be excited by the NAT SST anomalies and propagates eastwards to East Asia. During winters with the positive phase of the NAT SST anomalies, there appear cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation anomalies over northern and southern China, favoring less and more winter fog frequency, respectively. These observed impacts from the ENSO and NAT SST anomalies can be further reproduced by atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. Consideration of the NAT SST anomalies can apparently improve the explained variance of winter fog days over eastern China on the basis of the common-used ENSO signal. When ENSO and NAT occur as in-phase combinations and out-of-phase combinations, winter fog days anomalies appear over southern and northern China, respectively. These results have important implications on the seasonal-to-interannual predictability of the winter fog frequency over eastern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies suggest that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on tropical Atlantic climate variability shows strong seasonal preference, manifesting itself primarily in the decaying boreal spring season. However, here we show that a robust ENSO signal in tropical Atlantic precipitation anomalies can be detected throughout ENSO's whole lifecycle. We find that the ENSO impact on the tropical Atlantic precipitation migrates meridionally, following the seasonal migration of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Taking into account the modulation of the local seasonal cycle, the full spatiotemporal characteristics of ENSO's impact on tropical Atlantic precipitation are uncovered. Furthermore, we demonstrate that climate models can simulate the modulation of ENSO‐related precipitation over the tropical Atlantic by the local seasonal cycle despite the substantial mean state model bias in the Atlantic ITCZ. This extended perspective on ENSO's impact on tropical Atlantic climate variability enhances prospects for skillful year‐round regional climate prediction. Plain Language Summary: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides the primary source of predictability for the tropical Atlantic precipitation on interannual time scales. In most previous studies, a strong seasonal preference in the ENSO teleconnection to the Atlantic was identified. We here demonstrate that ENSO's impact on tropical Atlantic precipitation can be detected from ENSO developing to decaying phases, which is strongly modulated by the local seasonal cycle regarding its meridional migration. On this basis, we establish a robust year‐round statistical relationship between ENSO and tropical Atlantic precipitation by involving the local seasonal cycle. This observed modulation of the local seasonal cycle on ENSO's impact can also be simulated in the state‐of‐the‐art climate models. It is suggested that the realistic representation of the Atlantic seasonal cycle, as well as the improved ENSO prediction, could directly translate into enhanced prediction skill over the tropical Atlantic sector. Key Points: ENSO impact on the tropical Atlantic precipitation migrates meridionally along with the local seasonal cycle phaseA robust year‐round relationship can be established between ENSO and tropical Atlantic precipitation by involving the seasonal cycleThe extended perspective on ENSO's impact enhances prospects for seasonal climate prediction over the tropical Atlantic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary source of year‐to‐year climate variability on Earth, has profound impacts on the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), another important climate pattern. Much attention has been paid to potentially increased ENSO predictability by utilizing IOD conditions, inferred from a statistically significant correlation with ENSO at a long lead time. However, the intrinsic dynamics for the causality of this IOD‐ENSO relationship remain largely elusive. Here, we demonstrate that the observed nonstationary IOD‐ENSO lead‐lag relationship is mainly ENSO‐driven and therefore adds no additional information for ENSO predictability. The nonstationarity of their correlation is a manifestation of ENSO cycle complexity. Multi‐climate model and theoretical results further demonstrate that ENSO pacing tightly controls the statistical IOD‐ENSO relationship via changes in ENSO periodicity and regularity. This highlights that ENSO dominates the inter‐basin Pacific‐Indian Ocean interactions, shedding light on the key predictors for interannual pantropical climate variability. Plain Language Summary: Mounting attention has been paid to finding potential predictability sources outside the tropical Pacific to extend the prediction horizon of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study shows that the observed inter‐basin lead‐lag relationship in the Indo‐Pacific, that was previously invoked to identify the Indian Ocean dipole as an independent predictor of ENSO, is in fact a manifestation of ENSO cycle complexity. We demonstrate that ENSO pacing tightly controls the inter‐basin Pacific‐Indian Ocean interannual relationship via changes in fundamental ENSO properties. The causal relationship identified here regarding inter‐basin climate interactions is of crucial relevance for future studies investigating pantropical climate interactions. Key Points: The observed Indian Ocean dipole (IOD)‐El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead‐lag relationship is primarily ENSO‐driven, which adds no additional information to ENSO predictabilityThe observed nonstationarity of inter‐basin Pacific‐Indian Ocean interannual connectivity is a manifestation of ENSO cycle complexityENSO pacing regulates the IOD‐ENSO relationship via changes in fundamental ENSO properties [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary source of year‐to‐year climate variability on Earth, has profound impacts on the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), another important climate pattern. Much attention has been paid to potentially increased ENSO predictability by utilizing IOD conditions, inferred from a statistically significant correlation with ENSO at a long lead time. However, the intrinsic dynamics for the causality of this IOD‐ENSO relationship remain largely elusive. Here, we demonstrate that the observed nonstationary IOD‐ENSO lead‐lag relationship is mainly ENSO‐driven and therefore adds no additional information for ENSO predictability. The nonstationarity of their correlation is a manifestation of ENSO cycle complexity. Multi‐climate model and theoretical results further demonstrate that ENSO pacing tightly controls the statistical IOD‐ENSO relationship via changes in ENSO periodicity and regularity. This highlights that ENSO dominates the inter‐basin Pacific‐Indian Ocean interactions, shedding light on the key predictors for interannual pantropical climate variability. Plain Language Summary: Mounting attention has been paid to finding potential predictability sources outside the tropical Pacific to extend the prediction horizon of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study shows that the observed inter‐basin lead‐lag relationship in the Indo‐Pacific, that was previously invoked to identify the Indian Ocean dipole as an independent predictor of ENSO, is in fact a manifestation of ENSO cycle complexity. We demonstrate that ENSO pacing tightly controls the inter‐basin Pacific‐Indian Ocean interannual relationship via changes in fundamental ENSO properties. The causal relationship identified here regarding inter‐basin climate interactions is of crucial relevance for future studies investigating pantropical climate interactions. Key Points: The observed Indian Ocean dipole (IOD)‐El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead‐lag relationship is primarily ENSO‐driven, which adds no additional information to ENSO predictabilityThe observed nonstationarity of inter‐basin Pacific‐Indian Ocean interannual connectivity is a manifestation of ENSO cycle complexityENSO pacing regulates the IOD‐ENSO relationship via changes in fundamental ENSO properties [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño events are considered to be the strongest on record, their subsequent La Niña events exhibited contrasted evolutions. In this study, we demonstrate that the extremely strong period of tropical instability waves (TIWs) at the beginning of boreal summer of 2016 played an important role in hindering the subsequent La Niña's development by transporting extra off-equatorial heat into the Pacific cold tongue. By comparing the TIWs' contribution based on an oceanic mixed layer heat budget analysis for the 1998 and 2016 episodes, we establish that TIW-induced nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) is a significant contributor to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase transition in 2016. TIW-induced NDH contributed to around 0.4°C warming per month during the early boreal summer (May–June) following the 2015/16 El Niño's peak, which is found to be an essential inhibiting factor that prevented the subsequent La Niña's growth. A time-mean eddy kinetic energy analysis reveals that anomalous TIWs during 2016 mainly gained their energy from the baroclinic instability conversion due to a strong SST warming in the northeastern off-equatorial Pacific that promoted an increased meridional SST gradient. This highlights the importance of accurately reproducing TIW activity in ENSO simulation and the benefit of off-equatorial SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific as an independent precursor for ENSO predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variabilities in precipitation frequency carry profound implications for many aspects of socioeconomic activities. Based on the observations from 613 meteorological stations in China, the dominant mode of wintertime precipitation days and its possible causes are investigated in this article. It is revealed that the leading mode accounts for 35.0% of the total variance and mainly displays quasi‐uniform anomalies of precipitation days to the south of 40°N with the monopolar centre over southeastern China. The associated principal component exhibits remarkable interannual variability with a peak periodicity at 2–3 years. We suggest that this leading mode is largely contributed by the variabilities of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific and Eurasian (EU) teleconnection over the mid‐high latitudes. While ENSO mostly affects the variability of precipitation frequency in South China, the EU teleconnection is largely responsible for the changes of precipitation days in North China. On one hand, when El Niño events occur, the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific propagates abundant moisture towards South China, leading to more frequent precipitation occurrence there. On the other hand, during the winters with a negative EU pattern, North China tends to be rainy due to an evident moisture transport and a profound regional anomalous ascending flow which are embedded in the large‐scale eastward‐propagating wave‐train. The responses are roughly reversed in sign when these two factors are in their opposite phases. Based on the impacts from ENSO and the EU teleconnection, a binary statistical regression model is established and over 20% variance of the precipitation days can be realistically captured in eastern China. Our results could be beneficial for wintertime precipitation prediction and disaster mitigation in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reanalysis data are extensively employed in investigation of the tropical large-scale climate variability. In this study, we attempt to use the Advanced Microwave Sounding unit-A (AMSU-A) window channel brightness temperature (TB) observations to examine their relationship with the sea surface temperature (SST). A close relationship is found between the AMSU-A window channel TB and SST in the tropical oceans. A TB Niño Index (TNI) of AMSU-A window (sounding) channels is found to sometimes reach its maximum for about 2 months ahead of Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for half of El Niño cases from 1998 to 2020. The AMSU-A sounding channels TNI had minimum values about 1–3 months behind ONI peak month. Spatial correlation maps of AMSU-A window channel TB anomalies with TNI are similar to those of SST anomalies with ONI, featuring a horseshoe-shaped pattern in the tropical Pacific and a dipole-shaped pattern in the tropical Indian Ocean. The AMSU-A retrieved liquid water path (LWP) is also highly correlated with the ONI, with larger values in El Niño years. An active development of tropical convective disturbances and their movement associated with westerly wind bursts may be the reason for the peak TNI to occur 1–3 months earlier than the peak ONI. The potential for AMSU-A TB observations to reveal El Niño signals adds additional satellite data source for El Niño research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many previous studies have shown that an Indian Ocean basin warming (IOBW) occurs usually during El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) decaying spring to summer seasons through modifying the equatorial zonal circulation. Decadal modulation associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) is further investigated here to understand the nonstationary ENSO–IOBW relationship during ENSO decaying summer (July–September). During the positive IPO phase, significant warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean in El Niño decaying summers and vice versa for La Niña events, while these patterns are not well detected in the negative IPO phase. Different decaying speeds of ENSO associated with the IPO phase, largely controlled by both zonal advective and thermocline feedbacks, are suggested to be mainly responsible for these different ENSO–IOBW relationships. In contrast to ENSO events in the negative IPO phase, the ones in the positive IPO phase display a slower decaying speed and delay their transitions both from a warm to a cold state and a cold to a warm state. The slower decay of El Niño and La Niña thereby helps to sustain the teleconnection forcing over the equatorial Indian Ocean and corresponding SST anomalies there can persist into summer. This IPO modulation of the ENSO–IOBW relationship carries important implications for the seasonal prediction of the Indian Ocean SST anomalies and associated summer climate anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have shown that nonlinear atmospheric interactions between ENSO and the warm pool annual cycle generates a combination mode (C-mode), which is responsible for the termination of strong El Niño events and the development of the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP). However, the C-mode has experienced a remarkable decadal change in its characteristics around the early 2000s. The C-mode in both pre- and post-2000 exhibits its characteristic anomalous atmospheric circulation meridional asymmetry but with somewhat different spatial structures and time scales. During 1979–99, the C-mode pattern featured prominent westerly surface wind anomalies in the southeastern tropical Pacific and anticyclonic anomalies over the WNP. In contrast, the C-mode-associated westerly anomalies were shifted farther westward to the central Pacific and the WNP anticyclone was farther westward extended and weaker after 2000. These different C-mode patterns were accompanied by distinct climate impacts over the Indo-Pacific region. The decadal differences of the C-mode are tightly connected with the ENSO regime shift around 2000; that is, the occurrence of central Pacific (CP) El Niño events with quasi-biennial and decadal periodicities increased while the occurrence of eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events with quasi-quadrennial periodicity decreased. The associated near-annual combination tone periodicities of the C-mode also changed in accordance with these changes in the dominant ENSO frequency between the two time periods. Numerical model experiments further confirm the impacts of the ENSO regime shift on the C-mode characteristics. These results have important implications for understanding the C-mode dynamics and improving predictions of its climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies demonstrated the existence of a conspicuous atmospheric combination mode (C-mode) originating from nonlinear interactions between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific warm pool annual cycle (AC). Here we find that the C-mode exhibits prominent decadal amplitude variations during the ENSO decaying boreal spring season. It is revealed that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) can largely explain this waxing and waning in amplitude. A robust positive correlation between ENSO and the C-mode is detected during a negative AMO phase but not during a positive phase. Similar results can also be found in the relationship of ENSO with 1) the western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone and 2) spring precipitation over southern China, both of which are closely associated with the C-mode. We suggest that ENSO property changes due to an AMO modulation play a crucial role in determining these decadal shifts. During a positive AMO phase, ENSO events are distinctly weaker than those in an AMO negative phase. In addition, El Niño events concurrent with a positive AMO phase tend to exhibit a westward-shifted sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern. These SST characteristics during the positive AMO phase are both not conducive to the development of the meridionally asymmetric C-mode atmospheric circulation pattern and thus reduce the ENSO/C-mode correlation on decadal time scales. These observations can be realistically reproduced by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) experiment in which North Atlantic SSTs are nudged to reproduce a 50-yr sinusoidally varying AMO evolution. Our conclusion carries important implications for understanding seasonally modulated ENSO dynamics and multiscale climate impacts over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal summer western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) exhibits a remarkable decadal shift in its spatial pattern and periodicity around the late 1990s. In the former period, the WPSH is primarily characterized by a large-scale uniform pattern over Asia and its surrounding area with an oscillating period of ~4–5 yr. However, the WPSH-related atmospheric circulations shift to a dipole structure and oscillate at ~2–3 yr in the recent period. We found that this decadal shift is largely contributed by the ENSO regime change. During the former period, the tropical Pacific was dominated by the conventional eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with an oscillating period of ~4–5 yr. Strong anticyclone anomalies usually are maintained over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the EP El Niño decaying summer, accounting for most of the WPSH temporal and spatial variability. In contrast, the recent period features much more frequent occurrence of central Pacific (CP) El Niño events in the tropical Pacific with a ~2–3-yr oscillating period. A dipole structure in the WNP and Indian Ocean is evident during both developing and decaying summers of CP El Niño, consistent with the WPSH leading mode after the late 1990s. The results have important implications for seasonal prediction of the WPSH and associated Asian summer climate anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we investigate the response of boreal spring precipitation over southern China (SPSC) to central Pacific (CP) El Niño based on observational datasets. While there is enhanced precipitation over southern China during the decaying boreal spring of eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, so far no clear precipitation response has been detected during the same decaying stage for CP El Niño composites. Here we show that around half of the CP El Niño events coincide with enhanced SPSC (wet CP El Niño), while the other half are accompanied by reduced SPSC (dry CP El Niño). These two types of CP El Niño events bear dramatically different evolution features in their respective tropical sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns. Wet CP El Niño events are characterized by an SSTA longitudinal position confined to the tropical central-eastern Pacific. In contrast, dry CP El Niño events exhibit a clear westward propagation of SSTAs during their evolution, with maximum SSTAs located to the west of the date line after their mature phase. These different longitudinal positions of positive SSTAs during their decaying phase result in distinct meridional structures of the tropical Pacific convection anomalies as well as the ENSO combination mode (C-mode) response. An anomalous low-level anticyclone is evident over the western North Pacific during wet CP El Niño events during their decaying phase, while an anomalous cyclonic circulation is found for dry CP El Niño events. We emphasize that the impacts of CP El Niño on the SPSC depend crucially on the simultaneous zonal location of warm SSTAs in the tropical Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present work investigates different responses of Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) to two ENSO types based on reanalysis datasets and model experiments. We find that eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO events are accompanied by statistically significant SAT responses over the Barents–Kara Seas in February, while central Pacific (CP) events coincide with statistically significant SAT responses over northeastern Canada and Greenland. These impacts are largely of opposite sign for ENSO warm and cold phases. During EP El Niño in February, the enhanced tropospheric polar vortex over Eurasia and associated local low-level northeasterly anomalies over the Barents–Kara Seas lead to anomalously cold SAT in this region. Simultaneously, the enhanced tropospheric polar vortex leads to enhanced sinking air motion and consequently reduced cloud cover. This in turn reduces downward infrared radiation (IR), which further reduces SAT in the Barents–Kara Seas region. Such a robust response cannot be detected during other winter months for EP ENSO events. During CP El Niño, the February SATs over northeastern Canada and Greenland are anomalously warm and coincide with a weakened tropospheric polar vortex and related local low-level southwesterly anomalies originating from the Atlantic Ocean. The anomalous warmth can be enhanced by the local positive feedback. Similar SAT signals as in February during CP ENSO events can also be seen in January, but they are less statistically robust. We demonstrate that these contrasting Arctic February SAT responses are consistent with responses to the two ENSO types with a series of atmospheric general circulation model experiments. These results have implications for the seasonal predictability of regional Arctic SAT anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) has varied considerably on decadal timescales. These changes are strongly related to the occurrence frequency of central Pacific (CP) ENSO events. While both eastern Pacific (EP) and CP ENSO events show clear signatures of WWV recharge/discharge, their phase‐lag relationships between WWV and Niño3.4 SST are different. The WWV usually leads the Niño3.4 SST by two to three seasons during EP ENSO, while the lead time is reduced to one season during CP ENSO. The different phase‐lag relationships can be explained by distinct periodicities of the two ENSO types. Hence, ENSO regime changes associated with decadal predominance of either EP or CP ENSO events can give rise to decadal variations in the statistical WWV‐ENSO SST relationship. We emphasize the importance of identifying these different ENSO types and potentially different ENSO regimes to assess ENSO predictability. Key Points: Relationship between WWV and Niño3.4 SST varies on decadal timescales, corresponding to the occurrence frequency of central Pacific ENSOBoth eastern and central Pacific ENSO events show recharge/discharge signatures but with different WWV/Niño3.4 phase‐lag relationshipsThis difference can be explained by the existence of two different ENSO types characterized by distinct intrinsic periodicities [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many previous studies have demonstrated a high uncertainty in the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In the present work, decadal modulation by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is investigated as a possible cause of the nonstationary ENSO–NAO relationship based on observed and reanalysis data. It is found that the negative ENSO–NAO correlation in late winter is significant only when ENSO and the AMO are in phase (AMO+/El Niño and AMO−/La Niña). However, no significant ENSO-driven atmospheric anomalies can be observed over the North Atlantic when ENSO and the AMO are out of phase (AMO−/El Niño and AMO+/La Niña). Further analysis indicates that the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) plays an essential role in this modulating effect. Because of broadly analogous TNA SSTA responses to both ENSO and the AMO during late winter, a warm SSTA in the TNA is evident when El Niño occurs during a positive AMO phase, resulting in a significantly weakened NAO, and vice versa when La Niña occurs during a negative AMO phase. In contrast, neither the TNA SSTA nor the NAO shows a prominent change under out-of-phase combinations of ENSO and AMO. The AMO modulation and the associated effect of the TNA SSTA are shown to be well reproduced by historical simulations of the HadCM3 coupled model and further verified by forced experiments using an atmospheric circulation model. These offer hope that similar models will be able to make predictions for the NAO when appropriately initialized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While significant improvements have been made in understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts both North American and Asian climate, its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) remains less clear. Observations indicate that ENSO exhibits a highly complex relationship with the NAO-associated atmospheric circulation. One critical contribution to this ambiguous ENSO/NAO relationship originates from ENSO's diversity in its spatial structure. In general, both eastern (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events tend to be accompanied by a negative NAO-like atmospheric response. However, for two different types of La Niña the NAO response is almost opposite. Thus, the NAO responses for the CP ENSO are mostly linear, while nonlinear NAO responses dominate for the EP ENSO. These contrasting extra-tropical atmospheric responses are mainly attributed to nonlinear air-sea interactions in the tropical eastern Pacific. The local atmospheric response to the CP ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is highly linear since the air-sea action center is located within the Pacific warm pool, characterized by relatively high climatological SSTs. In contrast, the EP ENSO SST anomalies are located in an area of relatively low climatological SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Here only sufficiently high positive SST anomalies during EP El Niño events are able to overcome the SST threshold for deep convection, while hardly any anomalous convection is associated with EP La Niña SSTs that are below this threshold. This ENSO/NAO relationship has important implications for NAO seasonal prediction and places a higher requirement on models in reproducing the full diversity of ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work investigates the decadal modulation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) relationship by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A stable ENSO-EAWM relationship is found during the positive AMO phase but not during the negative phase. While the impact of El Niño events on the EAWM does not depend on the AMO phase, a different picture is observed for La Niña events. The La Niña boreal winter season coincides with a strengthened EAWM during a positive AMO phase and a weakened EAWM during a negative AMO phase. We suggest that the AMO's modulating effect mainly comprises two pathways that influence ENSO's impact on the EAWM. On one hand, when La Niña coincides with a positive AMO, the warm SST anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are amplified both in intensity and spatial extent, which favors strengthened WNP cyclonic anomalies and an enhanced EAWM. During La Niña with a negative AMO, only very weak SST anomalies occur over the WNP with reduced WNP cyclonic anomalies that are confined to the tropics, thus having little effect on the EAWM. On the other hand, an eastward-propagating Rossby wavetrain across the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia during a warm AMO phase strengthens the Siberian high and thus leads to a strengthened EAWM, while during a cold AMO phase the Siberian high is weakened, leading to a reduced EAWM. In contrast, El Niño and its associated atmospheric responses are relatively strong and stable, independent of the AMO phase. These results carry important implications to the seasonal-to-interannual predictability associated with ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the dominant form of mesoscale variability in the equatorial eastern Pacific, Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) are known to interact with the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in complex ways. TIWs activity is modulated by the ENSO state and also provide significant feedback on ENSO via nonlinear dynamic heating (NDH), acting as a source of asymmetry between the El Niño and La Niña phases. In this work, we show that the interannual variability of TIWs-induced heat flux and NDH can be approximately expressed in terms of the mean meridional temperature gradient as TIWs tend to transport heat downgradient of the temperature anomalies along the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) front. The TIWs-induced NDH can be quantified as an asymmetric negative feedback on ENSO by a nonlinear thermal eddy diffusivity which depends on the background TIWs pattern and the ENSO-related linear and nonlinear processes. This proposed parameterization scheme can capture well the direct ENSO modulation on TIWs activity, the combination effect arising from the nonlinear interaction between ENSO and the cold tongue annual cycle, and associated ENSO nonlinearity. This parameterization scheme is effectively tested using four ocean reanalysis datasets with different horizontal resolutions that exhibit contrasted patterns of TIWs activity. This scheme may be useful for assessing the TIWs-induced feedback on ENSO in mechanistic ENSO models to better understand the dynamics of ENSO complexity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have shown that the Indo-Pacific atmospheric response to ENSO comprises two dominant modes of variability: a meridionally quasi-symmetric response (independent of the annual cycle) and an antisymmetric response (arising from the nonlinear atmospheric interaction between ENSO variability and the annual cycle), referred to as the combination mode (C-mode). This study demonstrates that the direct El Niño signal over the tropics is confined to the equatorial region and has no significant impact on the atmospheric response over East Asia. The El Niño-associated equatorial anomalies can be expanded toward off-equatorial regions by the C-mode through ENSO's interaction with the annual cycle. The C-mode is the prime driver for the development of an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the El Niño decay phase, which usually transports more moisture to East Asia and thereby causes more precipitation over southern China. An atmospheric general circulation model is used that reproduces well the WNP anticyclonic anomalies when both El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies as well as the SST annual cycle are prescribed as boundary conditions. However, no significant WNP anticyclonic circulation anomaly appears during the El Niño decay phase when excluding the SST annual cycle. The analyses herein of observational data and model experiments suggest that the annual cycle plays a key role in the East Asian climate anomalies associated with El Niño through their nonlinear atmospheric interaction. Hence, a realistic simulation of the annual cycle is crucial in order to correctly capture the ENSO-associated climate anomalies over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies documented that a distinct southward shift of central Pacific low-level wind anomalies occurring during the ENSO decaying phase is caused by an interaction between the western Pacific annual cycle and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. The present study finds that the meridional movement of the central Pacific wind anomalies appears only during traditional eastern Pacific El Niño (EP El Niño) events rather than in central Pacific El Niño (CP El Niño) events in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are confined to the central Pacific. The zonal structure of ENSO-related SST anomalies therefore has an important effect on meridional asymmetry in the associated atmospheric response and its modulation by the annual cycle. In contrast to EP El Niño events, the SST anomalies of CP El Niño events extend farther west toward the warm pool region with its climatological warm SSTs. In the warm pool region, relatively small SST anomalies are thus able to excite convection anomalies on both sides of the equator, even with a meridionally asymmetric SST background state. Therefore, almost meridionally symmetric precipitation and wind anomalies are observed over the central Pacific during the decaying phase of CP El Niño events. The SST anomaly pattern of La Niña events is similar to CP El Niño events with a reversed sign. Accordingly, no distinct southward displacement of the atmospheric response occurs over the central Pacific during the La Niña decaying phase. These results have important implications for ENSO climate impacts over East Asia, since the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western North Pacific is an integral part of the annual cycle-modulated ENSO response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A severe drought struck southwest China during autumn 2009, which had a huge impact on productivity and the lives of the affected population. A nonconventional El Niño, the so-called warm pool (WP) El Niño, was supposed to be a principal factor of this strong autumn drought. In sharp contrast to a conventional El Niño, in the 2009 WP El Niño year the maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are confined to the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Moreover, this WP El Niño was characterized by the relatively farther westward location and the strongest intensity among the WP El Niño events in the past 60 years. Observations and modeling studies both indicate that the rainfall deficits over southwest China are significantly influenced by the combined effects of the location and intensity of the WP El Niño. That is, the drought over southwest China tends to be more severe when the warming SST anomalies associated with the WP El Niño are located farther westward and are stronger. Therefore, the strong autumn drought over southwest China in 2009 can be largely attributed to the concurrent distinctive WP El Niño, which generates a strongly anomalous cyclone over the west North Pacific and leads to a serious reduction in rainfall over southwest China. The influence of the Indian Ocean warming on autumn rainfall over southwest China was also examined but seems to have little contribution to this drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fidelity of coupled climate models simulating El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns has been widely examined. Nevertheless, a systematical narrow bias in the simulated meridional width of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) of ENSO has been largely overlooked. Utilizing the preindustrial control simulations of 11 coupled climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), it was shown that the simulated width of the ENSO SSTA is only about two-thirds of what is observed. Through a heat budget analysis based on simulations and ocean reanalysis datasets, it is demonstrated that the SSTA outside of the equatorial strip is predominantly controlled by the anomalous meridional advection by climatological currents and heat-flux damping. The authors thus propose a simple damped-advective conceptual model to describe ENSO width. The simple model indicates that this width is primarily determined by three factors: meridional current, ENSO period, and thermal damping rate. When the meridional current is weak, it spreads the equatorial SSTA away from the equator less effectively and the ENSO width thus tends to be narrow. A short ENSO period allows less time to transport the equatorial SSTA toward the off-equatorial region, and strong damping prevents expansion of the SSTA away from the equator, both of which lead to the meridional width becoming narrow. The narrow bias of the simulated ENSO width is mainly due to a systematical bias in weak trade winds that lead to weak ocean meridional currents, and partly due to a bias toward short ENSO periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interactions between El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are known to have great implications for global climate variability and seasonal climate predictions. Observational analysis suggests that the ENSO–IOD inter‐basin connection is time‐varying and related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) with weakened ENSO–IOD relationship corresponding to AMO warm phases. A suite of Atlantic pacemaker simulations successfully reproduces the decadal fluctuations in ENSO–IOD relationship and its link to the AMO. The warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the AMO drive a series of Indo‐Pacific mean climate changes through tropical‐wide teleconnections, including the La Niña‐like mean SST cooling over the central Pacific and the deepening of mean thermocline depth in the eastern Indian Ocean. By modulating ocean–atmosphere feedback strength, those mean state changes decrease both ENSO amplitude and the Indian Ocean sensitivity to ENSO forcing, therefore decoupling the IOD from ENSO. Plain Language Summary: The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are two most important interannual climate signals exciting world‐wide climate and socioeconomic impacts. Their interactions are known to have great implications for global climate variability and seasonal climate predictions. However, the ENSO–IOD relationship is time‐varying and show prominent decadal fluctuations. Such changes in ENSO–IOD relationship are associated with the decadal variation in IOD teleconnections and predictability. The prediction skill of IOD is high when the ENSO–IOD relationship is strong, and vice versa. But it remains unknown what controls the decadal modulation of Indo‐Pacific inter‐basin connection. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may modulate the ENSO–IOD inter‐basin connection. The AMO sea surface temperature anomalies drive a series of Indo‐Pacific mean climate changes through tropical‐wide teleconnections. Those mean state changes further influence both ENSO amplitude and the Indian Ocean sensitivity to ENSO forcing, thereby modulating the ENSO–IOD relationship. This study advances our understandings on inter‐basin and cross‐scale interactions in the climate system. Key Points: The inter‐basin connection between El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole is time‐varying and controlled by the remote Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)The AMO sea surface temperature anomalies drive a series of Indo‐Pacific mean climate changes through tropical‐wide teleconnectionsThe AMO induced mean state changes influence both ENSO amplitude and the Indian Ocean sensitivity to ENSO forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme El Niño events have outsized global impacts and control the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases asymmetries. Yet, a consensus regarding the relative contributions of atmospheric and oceanic nonlinearities to their genesis remains elusive. Here, we isolate the contribution of oceanic nonlinearities by conducting paired experiments forced with opposite wind stress anomalies in an oceanic general circulation model, which realistically simulates extreme El Niño events and oceanic nonlinearities thought to contribute to ENSO skewness (Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs), Nonlinear Dynamical Heating (NDH)). Our findings indicate a weak contribution of oceanic nonlinearities to extreme El Niño events in the eastern Pacific, owing to compensatory effects between lateral (NDH and TIWs) and vertical processes. These results hold across different vertical mixing schemes and modifications of the upper‐ocean heat budget mixed layer criterion. Our study reinforces previous research underscoring the pivotal role of atmospheric nonlinearities in shaping extreme El Niño events. Plain Language Summary: The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of year‐to‐year climate variations in the tropics and beyond. Originating from air‐sea interactions in the tropical Pacific, ENSO oscillates between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases, modulating sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Occasionally, El Niño events intensify into "super" El Niño events, causing widespread impacts globally. Utilizing a state‐of‐the‐art oceanic model, our research challenges previous results suggesting a strong oceanic contribution to the amplitude difference between "normal" and "super" El Niño events. Instead, our findings reveal that potential oceanic influences on "super" El Niño events tend to offset each other. This is consistent with recent research highlighting the crucial role of atmospheric processes in the transformation from a "normal" to a "super" El Niño. Key Points: A state‐of‐the‐art ocean model reproduces extreme El Niño events and the corresponding nonlinear oceanic processes realisticallyContributions from oceanic nonlinearities are isolated using paired simulations forced by opposite wind stress anomaliesEffects of oceanic nonlinearities on extreme El Niño events are small, due to compensation between lateral and vertical processes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have demonstrated that the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) could affect El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through thermocline adjustment, with a stronger ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) amplitude during a negative AMO phase than during a positive phase. In this study, we find that the ENSO atmospheric anomaly amplitudes in the tropical Pacific during different AMO phases are not necessarily consistent with these ENSO SST changes. For El Niño episodes, the low-level wind and precipitation anomalies over the tropical Pacific in the boreal winter are more pronounced during the negative AMO phase than during the positive phase, corresponding well to the stronger SST anomalies. However, La Niña events during the negative AMO phase are accompanied by weaker atmospheric anomalies in the tropical Pacific, although their SST anomalies are stronger than those during the positive phase. We suggest that this mismatch between La Niña SST and atmospheric anomalies can be largely attributed to AMO decadal modulation. A positive AMO favors intensified trade winds and weakened precipitation in the central tropical Pacific by modifying Walker circulation. Therefore, when La Niña coincides with a positive AMO, the low-level easterly and negative precipitation anomalies are superimposed, which gives rise to stronger atmospheric perturbations. In contrast, under a negative AMO background, the atmospheric anomalies induced by La Niña anomalous SST are partly counteracted by the AMO remote decadal modulation, thereby resulting in weaker anomaly amplitudes. Here, we highlight that AMO decadal forcing needs to be considered when investigating ENSO atmospheric variabilities and related regional climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The temperature of the subsurface water entrained into the surface mixed layer plays a key role in controlling the sea surface temperature (SST) and its interannual variability in the equatorial Pacific. In this paper, we combine a hyperbolic tangent function bounded by the warm pool SST and centered at the thermocline depth with a variable sharpness parameter to describe the time‐space evolutions of the subsurface temperature. Under simple approximations of the sharpness parameter, this concise expression becomes remarkably efficient in capturing the observed and climate‐model simulated subsurface temperature variability in terms of anomalies of the thermocline depth and SST of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The formulations for the subsurface temperature and thermocline sharpness developed in this work should be useful tools for evaluating and understanding the role of the thermocline feedback in ENSO behaviors in both theoretical and comprehensive climate models. Plain Language Summary: While significant advances have been made in our ability to understand, simulate, and predict the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), its remarkable complexity is still not well understood. The subsurface ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific is known to play a key role in controlling sea surface temperature and its interannual variations. An accurate description of its relationship with thermocline depth variability is of essential importance to understanding ENSO's complex dynamics in mechanistic studies. In this paper, we develop a concise expression which captures the observed relationship between anomalies of the subsurface temperature and thermocline depth remarkably well. This expression should be useful for ENSO mechanistic model studies and diagnostic investigations into climate models' performances in their ENSO simulations. Key Points: The equatorial Pacific subsurface temperature is expressed as a hyperbolic tangent function of thermocline depth and sharpnessEffective parameterizations for the subsurface temperature are derived by simple approximations of the thermocline sharpnessThese parameterizations can be useful tools for evaluating the impacts of thermocline feedback on ENSO [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical instability waves (TIWs), the dominant form of eddy variability in the tropics, have a peak period at about 5 weeks and are strongly modulated by both the seasonal cycle and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, we first demonstrated that TIW‐induced nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) is basically proportional to the TIW amplitude depicted by a complex index for TIW. We further delineated that this NDH, capturing the seasonally modulated nonlinear feedback of TIW activity onto ENSO, is well approximated by a theoretical formulation derived analytically from a simple linear stochastic model for the TIW index. The results of this study may be useful for the climate community to evaluate and understand the TIW‐ENSO multiscale interaction. Plain Language Summary: Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are westward propagating high‐frequency waves having a main period about 5 weeks. Their activity is strongly modulated by the cold tongue annual cycle and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). At the same time, TIW activity as a whole systematically transports heat meridionally from warm to cold regions, and thus when they are modulated by ENSO, they can have a nonlinear rectification effect on ENSO in return. We find that the TIW‐induced rectification effect on ENSO can be related to the amplitude of a simple index that captures the main propagative wavy feature of TIW. This feedback effect prevents the growth of La Niña (El Niño) events by promoting a warming (cooling) through meridional convergence of TIW heat transport. Finally, we introduce a theoretical formulation for TIW‐induced effect by adopting a simple linear stochastic model for TIW focused on the complex index for TIW. This validated formulation shall be useful, for instance, for evaluating and understanding the climate model's ability in simulating the TIW‐ENSO multiscale interaction. Key Points: Nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) due to tropical instability waves (TIWs) is largely proportional to the amplitude of a simple TIW indexTIW feedback onto El Niño–Southern Oscillation through TIW‐induced NDH is nonlinear and strongly seasonal dependentA theoretical derived simple expression for this feedback is in agreement with the deduced result from the reanalysis data [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the predictive skill of eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) models in predicting the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). We find that the forecasted ensemble-mean IOD–El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship deteriorates away from the observed relationship with increasing lead time, which might be one reason that limits the IOD predictive skill in coupled models. We are able to improve the IOD predictive skill using a recently developed stochastic dynamical model (SDM) forced by forecasted ENSO conditions. The results are consistent with the previous result that operational IOD predictability beyond persistence at lead times beyond one season is mostly controlled by ENSO predictability and the signal-to-noise ratio of the Indo-Pacific climate system. The multimodel ensemble (MME) investigated here is found to be of superior skill compared to each individual model at most lead times. Importantly, the skill of the SDM IOD predictions forced with forecasted ENSO conditions were either similar or better than those of the MME IOD forecasts. Moreover, the SDM forced with observed ENSO conditions exhibits significantly higher IOD prediction skill than the MME at longer lead times, suggesting the large potential skill increase that could be achieved by improving operational ENSO forecasts. We find that both cold and warm biases of the predicted Niño-3.4 index may cause false alarms of negative and positive IOD events, respectively, in NMME models. Many false alarms for IOD forecasts at lead times longer than one season in the original forecasts disappear or are significantly reduced in the SDM forced by forecasted ENSO conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]