Search

This paper describes very short-term wind prediction for power generation, utilizing a case study from Tasmania, Australia. Windpower presently is the fastest growing power generation sector in the world. However, windpower is intermittent. To be able to trade efficiently, make the best use of transmission line capability, and address concerns with system frequency in a re-regulated system, accurate very short-term forecasts are essential. The research introduces a novel approach—the application of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system to forecasting a wind time series. Over the very short-term forecast interval, both windspeed and wind direction are important parameters. To be able to be gain the most from a forecast on this time scale, the turbines must be directed toward on oncoming wind. For this reason, this paper forecasts wind vectors, rather than windspeed or power output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a property rights model for electric transmission is proposed and its properties analyzed. The proposed rights, called "border flow rights," support financial hedging of transmission risk and merchant transmission expansion through associated financial rights, called "contracts for differences of differences." These financial rights allow for forward trading of both energy and transmission by a unified exchange, avoiding the bifurcation in current markets between decentralized long-term energy trading and centralized long-term transmission trading. Such long-term trading can help to support the financing of both generation and transmission assets. We consider incentive properties of such a right in the absence of lumpiness, economies of scale, and market power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]