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This paper aims to demonstrate the impact of coal enterprises’ vertical integration on the performance of innovation corporate social responsibility (ICSR) and to elaborate its specific transmission path through financing structure and market power. This paper takes the data of A-share listed coal company from 2008 to 2017 as samples, uses input-output table method to measure the degree of vertical integration, and explores the relationship between the four factors through multiple linear regression and Bootstrap method. We found that: (1) the vertical integration of coal enterprises has positive incentives for the promotion of ICSR. (2) Financing structure and market power play a chain intermediary role in this process of incentive. (3) In areas with high marketization process, vertical integration has more significant incentive effect on ICSR. The paper extends the research on the relationship between vertical integration and innovation, which provides a reference for the improvement of China’s supply-side reform and corporate social responsibility (CSR) fulfillment policy. It is helpful to promote the sustainable development of the coal industry, stimulate the innovation vitality of enterprises, and improve the fulfillment of CSR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on evaluating the systemic risk in interbank networks, proposing a series of measurements: risk distance, risk degree and m-order risk degree. The proposed measurements are formally proven to have good basic and extended properties that are able to reflect the effect of bank size, liability size, liability distribution, and the discount factor on the default risk, not only of a single bank, but also of the entire system. Additionally, the abovementioned properties and the relationship between risk distance and financial contagion indicate the rationality embodied in the proposed measurements. This paper also provides some implications on how to decrease or prevent the systemic risk in an interbank system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a formulation for selecting the stage ratios and number of stages in a multistage transmission with a given desired total transmission ratio in a manner that maximizes efficiency, maximizes acceleration, or minimizes the mass of the transmission. The formulation is used to highlight several implications for gear train design, including the fact that minimizing rotational inertia and mass are competing objectives with respect to optimal selection of stage ratios, and that both rotational inertia and mass can often be minimized by increasing the total number of stages beyond a minimum realizable number. Additionally, a multistage transmission will generally provide maximum acceleration when the stage ratios increase monotonically from the motor to the load. The transmission will have minimum mass when the stage ratios decrease monotonically. The transmission will also provide maximum efficiency when the corresponding stages employ constant stage ratios. This paper aims to use this optimization formulation to elucidate tradeoffs between various common objectives in gear train design (efficiency, acceleration, and mass). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Floating catchment methods have recently been applied to identify priority regions for Automated External Defibrillator (AED) deployment, to aid in improving Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) survival. This approach models access as a supply-to-demand ratio for each area, targeting areas with high demand and low supply for AED placement. These methods incorporate spatial covariates on OHCA occurrence, but do not provide precise AED locations, which are critical to the initial intent of such location analysis research. Exact AED locations can be determined using optimisation methods, but they do not incorporate known spatial risk factors for OHCA, such as income and demographics. Combining these two approaches would evaluate AED placement impact, describe drivers of OHCA occurrence, and identify areas that may not be appropriately covered by AED placement strategies. There are two aims in this paper. First, to develop geospatial models of OHCA that account for and display uncertainty. Second, to evaluate the AED placement methods using geospatial models of accessibility. We first identify communities with the greatest gap between demand and supply for allocating AEDs. We then use this information to evaluate models for precise AED location deployment. Methods: Case study data set consisted of 2802 OHCA events and 719 AEDs. Spatial OHCA occurrence was described using a geospatial model, with possible spatial correlation accommodated by introducing a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior on the municipality-level spatial random effect. This model was fit with Integrated Nested Laplacian Approximation (INLA), using covariates for population density, proportion male, proportion over 65 years, financial strength, and the proportion of land used for transport, commercial, buildings, recreation, and urban areas. Optimisation methods for AED locations were applied to find the top 100 AED placement locations. AED access was calculated for current access and 100 AED placements. Priority rankings were then given for each area based on their access score and predicted number of OHCA events. Results: Of the 2802 OHCA events, 64.28% occurred in rural areas, and 35.72% in urban areas. Additionally, over 70% of individuals were aged over 65. Supply of AEDs was less than demand in most areas. Priority regions for AED placement were identified, and access scores were evaluated for AED placement methodology by ranking the access scores and the predicted OHCA count. AED placement methodology placed AEDs in areas with the highest priority, but placed more AEDs in areas with more predicted OHCA events in each grid cell. Conclusion: The methods in this paper incorporate OHCA spatial risk factors and OHCA coverage to identify spatial regions most in need of resources. These methods can be used to help understand how AED allocation methods affect OHCA accessibility, which is of significant practical value for communities when deciding AED placements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Setting: Research capacity is weakest in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) where operational research is highly relevant and needed. Structured Operational Research and Training Initiative (SORT IT) courses have been developed to train participants to conduct and publish operational research and influence policy and practice. Twenty courses were completed in Asia, Africa, Europe and the South Pacific between 2009 and 2014. Objectives: In the 20 completed SORT IT courses, to assess where the research was conducted, who was trained, who became facilitators in subsequent courses and course outcomes. Design: A cohort study of completed SORT IT courses Results: There were 236 participants (41% female) including 64 nationalities who conducted research in 59 countries, mostly from Asia and Africa (mean course duration = 9.7 months). Most participants (68%) were from government health programs and non-governmental agencies. A total of 213(90%) participants completed all milestones successfully with 41(19%) becoming subsequent course facilitators, 88% of whom were from LMICs. Of 228 manuscripts submitted to scientific journals, 197(86%) were either published or in press; in 86%, the principal investigator (first author) was a LMIC national. Papers were published in 23 scientific journals (impact factor 0.5–4.4) and covered 21 disease categories (median publication time = 5.7 months). Published papers (186) had 94,794 cumulative article views/downloads. Article views/downloads for immediate open access articles were double those from closed access journals. Conclusion: The SORT IT model has been effective in training personnel to produce relevant operational research in LMICs. It merits continued commitment and support for further scale-up and development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China’s fast economic growth contributes to the rapid development of its urbanization process, and also renders a series of industrial accidents, which often cause loss of life, damage to property and environment, thus requiring the associated risk analysis and safety control measures to be implemented in advance. However, incompleteness of historical failure data before the occurrence of accidents makes it difficult to use traditional risk analysis approaches such as probabilistic risk analysis in many cases. This paper aims to develop a new methodology capable of assessing regional industrial safety (RIS) in an uncertain environment. A hierarchical structure for modelling the risks influencing RIS is first constructed. The hybrid of evidential reasoning (ER) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then used to assess the risks in a complementary way, in which AHP is hired to evaluate the weight of each risk factor and ER is employed to synthesise the safety evaluations of the investigated region(s) against the risk factors from the bottom to the top level in the hierarchy. The successful application of the hybrid approach in a real case analysis of RIS in several major districts of Beijing (capital of China) demonstrates its feasibility as well as provides risk analysts and safety engineers with useful insights on effective solutions to comprehensive risk assessment of RIS in metropolitan cities. The contribution of this paper is made by the findings on the comparison of risk levels of RIS at different regions against various risk factors so that best practices from the good performer(s) can be used to improve the safety of the others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recommender systems are vulnerable to shilling attacks. Forged user-generated content data, such as user ratings and reviews, are used by attackers to manipulate recommendation rankings. Shilling attack detection in recommender systems is of great significance to maintain the fairness and sustainability of recommender systems. The current studies have problems in terms of the poor universality of algorithms, difficulty in selection of user profile attributes, and lack of an optimization mechanism. In this paper, a shilling behaviour detection structure based on abnormal group user findings and rating time series analysis is proposed. This paper adds to the current understanding in the field by studying the credibility evaluation model in-depth based on the rating prediction model to derive proximity-based predictions. A method for detecting suspicious ratings based on suspicious time windows and target item analysis is proposed. Suspicious rating time segments are determined by constructing a time series, and data streams of the rating items are examined and suspicious rating segments are checked. To analyse features of shilling attacks by a group user’s credibility, an abnormal group user discovery method based on time series and time window is proposed. Standard testing datasets are used to verify the effect of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on temporal characteristics of human dynamics has attracted much attentions for its contribution to various areas such as communication, medical treatment, finance, etc. Existing studies show that the time intervals between two consecutive events present different non-Poisson characteristics, such as power-law, Pareto, bimodal distribution of power-law, exponential distribution, piecewise power-law, et al. With the occurrences of new services, new types of distributions may arise. In this paper, we study the distributions of the time intervals between two consecutive visits to QQ and WeChat service, the top two popular instant messaging services in China, and present a new finding that when the value of statistical unit T is set to 0.001s, the inter-event time distribution follows a piecewise distribution of exponential and power-law, indicating the heterogeneous character of IM services users’ online behavior in different time scales. We infer that the heterogeneous character is related to the communication mechanism of IM and the habits of users. Then we develop a combination model of exponential model and interest model to characterize the heterogeneity. Furthermore, we find that the exponent of the inter-event time distribution of the same service is different in two cities, which is correlated with the popularity of the services. Our research is useful for the application of information diffusion, prediction of economic development of cities, and so on. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to optimize a desirable fare structure for the public transit service along a bus-subway corridor with the consideration of those factors related to equity in trip, including travel distance and comfort level. The travel distance factor is represented by the distance-based fare strategy, which is an existing differential strategy. The comfort level one is considered in the area-based fare strategy which is a new differential strategy defined in this paper. Both factors are referred to by the combined fare strategy which is composed of distance-based and area-based fare strategies. The flat fare strategy is applied to determine a reference level of social welfare and obtain the general passenger flow along transit lines, which is used to divide areas or zones along the corridor. This problem is formulated as a bi-level program, of which the upper level maximizes the social welfare and the lower level capturing traveler choice behavior is a variable-demand stochastic user equilibrium assignment model. A genetic algorithm is applied to solve the bi-level program while the method of successive averages is adopted to solve the lower-level model. A series of numerical experiments are carried out to illustrate the performance of the models and solution methods. Numerical results indicate that all three differential fare strategies play a better role in enhancing the social welfare than the flat fare strategy and that the fare structure under the combined fare strategy generates the highest social welfare and the largest resulting passenger demand, which implies that the more equity factors a differential fare strategy involves the more desirable fare structure the strategy has. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical studies show that discrimination by identity found in offline markets also prevails online. This paper reveal that in a competitive market, buyers that intend to discriminate exist but they are prevented from influencing the market outcome. To this end, we construct a field experiment on eBay, where half of the sellers disclose their names in their usernames while the other half do not. eBay, however, automatically discloses the seller’s names to the buyer after the auction. In the anonymous auctions, winning bidders thus learn the identity of the seller after the auction ends, and here we find buyers to discriminate against sellers with foreign-sounding names by leaving them feedback less often. However, there is no such discrimination in feedback provision when the seller name was known to the buyer before the auction. When bidders know the names of the sellers, the bidders with animus towards individuals with specific names can select out of auctions from these sellers, leaving winners that do not discriminate. One would expect that the auctions of for example sellers with foreign-sounding names would receive fewer bidders and thus lower auction prices. However, we observe no such differences: there are no statistically significant differences in the number of bids or auction prices received by sellers with foreign or domestic sounding names. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the heterogeneous effects of exchange rate and stock market on carbon emission allowance price in four emissions trading scheme pilots in China. We employ a panel quantile regression model, which can describe both individual and distributional heterogeneity. The empirical results illustrate that the effects of explanatory variables on carbon emission allowance price is heterogeneous along the whole quantiles. Specifically, exchange rate has a negative effect on carbon emission allowance price at lower quantiles, while becomes a positive effect at higher quantiles. In addition, a negative effect exists between domestic stock market and carbon emission allowance price, and the intensity decreasing along with the increase of quantile. By contrast, an increasing positive effect is discovered between European stock market and domestic carbon emission allowance prices. Finally, heterogeneous effects on carbon emission allowance price can also be proved in European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the location trajectory contains more spatial-temporal information about the user, it will be even dangerous for jeopardizing the privacy of the user. In order to cope with the correlation, an algorithm that utilizes the query division had been proposed. In this algorithm, random blocks of query context was used, so as the adversary was obfuscated and difficult to correlate the real result. However, this algorithm fails to dispose the size of each query block, as once same size blocks were obtained by the adversary continuously, so the adversary can regard them as blocks from the same query context, and then obtains the query context to correlate the discrete locations. In view of above conditions, in this paper we propose a fine granularity block division algorithm based on the conception of granularity measurement as well as granularity layer division, so with the help of collaborative users the location privacy of the user will be protected. In this algorithm, the query context will be divided into fine granularity size of information blocks that difficult to be distinguished with others, and then these blocks will be exchanged with other collaborative users to eliminate the difference in block size. In addition, as each block is divided into fine granularity size, the adversary will be difficult to correlate the discrete locations into location trajectory, so the location privacy will be protected. At last, through security analysis and experimental verification, this granularity indistinguishable algorithm is analyzed and verified at both theoretical and practical levels, which further demonstrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm compared with other similar algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, with the rapid development of China's air transport industry and the change in market consumption structure, service quality has become one of the important factors affecting airline revenue. How to formulate a reasonable pricing strategy and maintain competitiveness in the fierce market competition has become an urgent problem for airlines. First, the impact factor of service quality level in the traditional pricing model is introduced and a static price competition model for multi-oligopoly airlines based on service quality is established in this paper. And then, a dynamic pricing model based on service quality of the multi-oligopoly airlines is established. The model incorporates the weight factor of service quality impact, which is used to indicate the weight of the service quality level in the process of airline dynamic pricing. The research results show that the service quality level of airlines has an indispensable influence on its development. Airlines should improve service quality as soon as possible to enhance market competitiveness and achieve sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the complexity of large production systems, maintenance events are diverse, simultaneous and dynamic. Appropriate maintenance management of complex large production systems can guarantee high availability and save maintenance costs. However, current maintenance decision-making methods mainly focus on the maintenance events of single-components and series connection multi-components; little research pays attention to the combination maintenance of different maintenance events. Therefore, this paper proposes a multi-event combination maintenance model based on event correlation. First, the maintenance downtime and cost of three types of maintenance events under different maintenance beginning times and degrees are analysed. Then, shared maintenance downtime and cost models are established by maintenance event correlations. In addition, a multi-event combination maintenance model is constructed to achieve the goal of the highest availability and the lowest cost rate in both the decision-making cycle and the remaining life. Moreover, a particle swarm optimization algorithm based on interval segmentation for model solving is designed. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coordination is essential for improving supply chain performance, and one of the most critical factors in achieving the coordination of a supply chain is the integrated research of production and distribution. In this paper, a novel two-stage hybrid solution methodology is proposed. In the first stage, products are processed on the serial machines of multiple manufacturers located in two industrial parks. A fuzzy multi-objective scheduling optimization is performed using a modified non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II). The result obtained in the first stage is used in the second stage to optimize the distribution scheduling problem using a modified genetic annealing algorithm (GAA). Finally, simulation results verify both the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed solution methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model is modified to analyze post-work grocery shopping activity duration. Much previous shopping duration analysis was conducted using the proportional hazard (PH) modeling approach. Once the proportionality assumption was violated, the traditional accelerated failure time (TAFT) model was usually selected as an alternative modeling approach. However, a TAFT model only has covariates with non-proportional and time-dependent effects on the hazard overtime while a PH model only accommodates covariates with proportional and time-independent effects. Neither of them considers the possibility that some of covariates may have proportional and time-independent effects and some may have non-proportional and time-dependent effects on the hazard value in one model. To address this issue, the paper generalizes the TAFT model and develops a modified accelerated failure time (MAFT) model to accommodate both time-dependent and time-independent covariates for activity duration analysis. Checking on the proportionality assumption indicates that the assumption is not valid in the post-work grocery shopping activity data extracted from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) conducted by the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT). Both TAFT and MAFT models are developed for comparisons and analysis. The empirical and statistical results show that there do exist two different types of covariates affecting shopping activity duration, including covariates only with proportional and time-independent effects (i.e. working duration, commute travel time) and those with non-proportional and time-dependent effects. The MAFT model can capture the subtleties in various types of covariate effects and help better understand how those covariates affect activity duration overtime. This paper also shows the importance to develop a flexible duration model with both time-dependent and time-independent covariates for accurately evaluating travel demand management (TDM) policies, like flexible work hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a description of how market competitiveness evaluations concerning mechanical equipment can be made in the context of multi-criteria decision environments. It is assumed that, when we are evaluating the market competitiveness, there are limited number of candidates with some required qualifications, and the alternatives will be pairwise compared on a ratio scale. The qualifications are depicted as criteria in hierarchical structure. A hierarchical decision model called PCbHDM was used in this study based on an analysis of its desirable traits. Illustration and comparison shows that the PCbHDM provides a convenient and effective tool for evaluating the market competitiveness of mechanical equipment. The researchers and practitioners might use findings of this paper in application of PCbHDM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem that passengers are hard to take taxis while empty driving rate is high widely exists under the traditional taxi operation mode. The implementation of taxi carpooling mode can alleviate the problem in a certain extent. The objective of this study is to optimize the taxi carpooling path. Firstly, the taxi carpooling path optimization model with single objective and its extended model with multiple objectives are built respectively. Then, the single objective path optimization model of taxi carpooling is solved based on the improved single objective genetic algorithm, and the multiple-objective path optimization model of taxi carpooling is solved based on the improved multiple-objective genetic algorithm. Finally, a case study is carried out based on a road network with 24 nodes. The case study results show the path optimization models and algorithms of taxi carpooling proposed in the paper can quickly get the taxi carpooling path, and can increase the income of taxi driver while reduce the cost for passengers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accidents, bad weathers, traffic congestions, etc. led to the uncertainties of travel times in real-life road networks, which greatly affected the quality of individual’s life and the reliability of transportation system. This paper addressed the school bus routing problem in such a stochastic and time-dependent road environment. Firstly, the problem was set based on a single-school configuration, and the students were picked up at their homes, which was in line with the current situation of school bus systems in China. Thus, it could be regarded as an independent problem of school bus route generation in random dynamic networks, which could be solved as a variant of extended Vehicle Routing Problem. However, due to the fluctuation and uncertainty of link travel times, the arrival time at each stop including the destination was varying. Therefore, the selection of optimal path connecting the current service node with the next one was treated as a sub-problem in this study, where the reliability of travel times in the stochastic and time-varying network was highly concerned by such time-rigid commuters. To this end, a Robust Optimal Schedule Times model with a hard time windows constraint was built to generate a most cost-reliable route for school buses. By the use of Robust Optimization method, it was intended to minimize the worst-case total cost which combined the cost of earlier schedule delays with the disutility of travel times. It was also proved that the proposed model could be converted into solving a conventional problem in deterministic dynamic networks for a reduction of computation complexity, which provided the potential of applying to the practical problems. Finally, the validity of the proposed model and its performance evaluation was analyzed through a small-scale computational instance, where all the link travel times in the simulated network were attributed to both time-varying and stochastic. Then, a mathematical programming solver was used to find the exact optimal solution. The results indicated that the model was valid, and the necessity of considering the stochastic and time-dependent nature of transportation networks was also confirmed in the case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate reporting and forecasting of PM2.5 concentration are important for improving public health. In this paper, we propose a partial differential equation (PDE) model, specially, a linear diffusive equation, to describe the spatial-temporal characteristics of PM2.5 in order to make short-term prediction. We analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of a real dataset from China’s National Environmental Monitoring and validate the PDE-based model in terms of predicting the PM2.5 concentration of the next day by the former days’ history data. Our experiment results show that the PDE model is able to characterize and predict the process of PM2.5 transport. For example, for 300 continuous days of 2016, the average prediction accuracy of the PDE model over all city-regions is 93% or 83% based on different accuracy definitions. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to use PDE-based model to study PM2.5 prediction in both temporal and spatial dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the Retailer Stackelberg game in a supply chain consisting of two manufacturers and one retailer where they compete simultaneously under three factors including price, service and simple price discount contract. It is assumed that the second manufacturer provides service directly to his customers, and the retailer provides service for the first product’s customers, while the retailer buys the first product under price discount from the first manufacturer. The analysis of the optimal equilibrium solutions and the results of the numerical examples show that if a manufacturer chooses the appropriate range of discount rate, he will gain more profit than when there is no discount given to the retailer. This situation can be considered as an effective tool for the coordination of the first manufacturer and the retailer to offer discount by manufacturer and to provide the service by the retailer. We obtain equilibrium solution of Retailer Stackelberg game and analyze the numerical examples under two cases: a) the manufacturers sell their products to the retailer without price discount contract. b) The first manufacturer sells his products to the retailer with the simple price discount contract. The preliminary results show that the service and the price discount contract can improve the performance of supply chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Security is considered a major challenge for self-driving and semi self-driving vehicles. These vehicles depend heavily on communications to predict and sense their external environment used in their motion. They use a type of ad hoc network termed Vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs). Unfortunately, VANETs are potentially exposed to many attacks on network and application level. This paper, proposes a new intrusion detection system to protect the communication system of self-driving cars; utilising a combination of hierarchical models based on clusters and log parameters. This security system is designed to detect Sybil and Wormhole attacks in highway usage scenarios. It is based on clusters, utilising Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) to overcome some of the obstacles of VANETs such as high density, high mobility and bandwidth limitations in exchanging messages. This makes the security system more efficient, accurate and capable of real time detection and quick in identification of malicious behaviour in VANETs. In this scheme, each vehicle log calculates and stores different parameter values after receiving the cooperative awareness messages from nearby vehicles. The vehicles exchange their log data and determine the difference between the parameters, which is utilised to detect Sybil attacks and Wormhole attacks. In order to realize efficient and effective intrusion detection system, we use the well-known network simulator (ns-2) to verify the performance of the security system. Simulation results indicate that the security system can achieve high detection rates and effectively detect anomalies with low rate of false alarms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Grid scheduler, schedules user jobs on the best available resource in terms of resource characteristics by optimizing job execution time. Resource failure in Grid is no longer an exception but a regular occurring event as resources are increasingly being used by the scientific community to solve computationally intensive problems which typically run for days or even months. It is therefore absolutely essential that these long-running applications are able to tolerate failures and avoid re-computations from scratch after resource failure has occurred, to satisfy the user’s Quality of Service (QoS) requirement. Job Scheduling with Fault Tolerance in Grid Computing using Ant Colony Optimization is proposed to ensure that jobs are executed successfully even when resource failure has occurred. The technique employed in this paper, is the use of resource failure rate, as well as checkpoint-based roll back recovery strategy. Check-pointing aims at reducing the amount of work that is lost upon failure of the system by immediately saving the state of the system. A comparison of the proposed approach with an existing Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm is discussed. The experimental results of the implemented Fault Tolerance scheduling algorithm show that there is an improvement in the user’s QoS requirement over the existing ACO algorithm, which has no fault tolerance integrated in it. The performance evaluation of the two algorithms was measured in terms of the three main scheduling performance metrics: makespan, throughput and average turnaround time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: National Health Systems managers have been subject in recent years to considerable pressure to increase concentration and allow mergers. This pressure has been justified by a belief that larger hospitals lead to lower average costs and better clinical outcomes through the exploitation of economies of scale. In this context, the opportunity to measure scale efficiency is crucial to address the question of optimal productive size and to manage a fair allocation of resources. Methods and findings: This paper analyses the stance of existing research on scale efficiency and optimal size of the hospital sector. We performed a systematic search of 45 past years (1969–2014) of research published in peer-reviewed scientific journals recorded by the Social Sciences Citation Index concerning this topic. We classified articles by the journal’s category, research topic, hospital setting, method and primary data analysis technique. Results showed that most of the studies were focussed on the analysis of technical and scale efficiency or on input / output ratio using Data Envelopment Analysis. We also find increasing interest concerning the effect of possible changes in hospital size on quality of care. Conclusions: Studies analysed in this review showed that economies of scale are present for merging hospitals. Results supported the current policy of expanding larger hospitals and restructuring/closing smaller hospitals. In terms of beds, studies reported consistent evidence of economies of scale for hospitals with 200–300 beds. Diseconomies of scale can be expected to occur below 200 beds and above 600 beds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Customized buses (CBs) are a new mode of public transportation and an important part of diversified public transportation, providing advanced, attractive and user-led service. The operational activity of a CB is planned by aggregating space–time demand and similar passenger travel demands. Based on an analysis of domestic and international research and the current development of CBs in China and considering passenger travel data, this paper studies the problems associated with the operation of CBs, such as stop selection, line planning and timetables, and establishes a model for the stop planning and timetables of CBs. The improved immune genetic algorithm (IIGA) is used to solve the model with regard to the following: 1) multiple population design and transport operator design, 2) memory library design, 3) mutation probability design and crossover probability design, and 4) the fitness calculation of the gene segment. Finally, a real-world example in Beijing is calculated, and the model and solution results are verified and analyzed. The results illustrate that the IIGA solves the model and is superior to the basic genetic algorithm in terms of the number of passengers, travel time, average passenger travel time, average passenger arrival time ahead of schedule and total line revenue. This study covers the key issues involving operational systems of CBs, combines theoretical research and empirical analysis, and provides a theoretical foundation for the planning and operation of CBs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently the integrated modular avionics (IMA) architecture has been widely adopted by the avionics industry due to its strong partition mechanism. Although the IMA architecture can achieve effective cost reduction and reliability enhancement in the development of avionics systems, it results in a complex allocation and scheduling problem. All partitions in an IMA system should be integrated together according to a proper schedule such that their deadlines will be met even under the worst case situations. In order to help provide a proper scheduling table for all partitions in IMA systems, we study the schedulability of independent partitions on a multiprocessor platform in this paper. We firstly present an exact formulation to calculate the maximum scaling factor and determine whether all partitions are schedulable on a limited number of processors. Then with a Game Theory analogy, we design an approximation algorithm to solve the scheduling problem of partitions, by allowing each partition to optimize its own schedule according to the allocations of the others. Finally, simulation experiments are conducted to show the efficiency and reliability of the approach proposed in terms of time consumption and acceptance ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Mesh topology is one of the most promising architecture due to its regular and simple structure for on-chip communication. Performance of mesh topology degraded greatly by increasing the network size due to small bisection width and large network diameter. In order to overcome this limitation, many researchers presented modified Mesh design by adding some extra links to improve its performance in terms of network latency and power consumption. The Cross-By-Pass-Mesh was presented by us as an improved version of Mesh topology by intelligent addition of extra links. This paper presents an efficient topology named Cross-By-Pass-Torus for further increase in the performance of the Cross-By-Pass-Mesh topology. The proposed design merges the best features of the Cross-By-Pass-Mesh and Torus, to reduce the network diameter, minimize the average number of hops between nodes, increase the bisection width and to enhance the overall performance of the network. In this paper, the architectural design of the topology is presented and analyzed against similar kind of 2D topologies in terms of average latency, throughput and power consumption. In order to certify the actual behavior of proposed topology, the synthetic traffic trace and five different real embedded application workloads are applied to the proposed as well as other competitor network topologies. The simulation results indicate that Cross-By-Pass-Torus is an efficient candidate among its predecessor’s and competitor topologies due to its less average latency and increased throughput at a slight cost in network power and energy for on-chip communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, control of uncertain fractional-order financial chaotic system with input saturation and external disturbance is investigated. The unknown part of the input saturation as well as the system’s unknown nonlinear function is approximated by a fuzzy logic system. To handle the fuzzy approximation error and the estimation error of the unknown upper bound of the external disturbance, fractional-order adaptation laws are constructed. Based on fractional Lyapunov stability theorem, an adaptive fuzzy controller is designed, and the asymptotical stability can be guaranteed. Finally, simulation studies are given to indicate the effectiveness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geometric phases describe how in a continuous-time dynamical system the displacement of a variable (called phase variable) can be related to other variables (shape variables) undergoing a cyclic motion, according to an area rule. The aim of this paper is to show that geometric phases can exist also for discrete-time systems, and even when the cycles in shape space have zero area. A context in which this principle can be applied is stock trading. A zero-area cycle in shape space represents the type of trading operations normally carried out by high-frequency traders (entering and exiting a position on a fast time-scale), while the phase variable represents the cash balance of a trader. Under the assumption that trading impacts stock prices, even zero-area cyclic trading operations can induce geometric phases, i.e., profits or losses, without affecting the stock quote. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a result of the greatly increased use of mobile devices, the disadvantages of portable devices have gradually begun to emerge. To solve these problems, the use of mobile cloud computing assisted by cloud data centers has been proposed. However, cloud data centers are always very far from the mobile requesters. In this paper, we propose an improved multi-objective local mobile cloud model: Compounded Local Mobile Cloud Architecture with Dynamic Priority Queues (LMCpri). This new architecture could briefly store jobs that arrive simultaneously at the cloudlet in different priority positions according to the result of auction processing, and then execute partitioning tasks on capable helpers. In the Scheduling Module, NSGA-II is employed as the scheduling algorithm to shorten processing time and decrease requester cost relative to PSO and sequential scheduling. The simulation results show that the number of iteration times that is defined to 30 is the best choice of the system. In addition, comparing with LMCque, LMCpri is able to effectively accommodate a requester who would like his job to be executed in advance and shorten execution time. Finally, we make a comparing experiment between LMCpri and cloud assisting architecture, and the results reveal that LMCpri presents a better performance advantage than cloud assisting architecture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world is still recovering from the financial crisis peaking in September 2008. The triggering event was the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. To detect such turmoils, one can investigate the time-dependent behaviour of correlations between assets or indices. These cross-correlations have been connected to the systemic risks within markets by several studies in the aftermath of this crisis. We study 37 different US indices which cover almost all aspects of the US economy and show that monitoring an average investor’s behaviour can be used to quantify times of increased risk. In this paper the overall investing strategy is approximated by the ground-states of the mean-variance model along the efficient frontier bound to real world constraints. Changes in the behaviour of the average investor is utlilized as a early warning sign. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current models of bilateral trade neglect the effects of income distribution. This paper addresses the issue by accounting for non-homothetic consumer preferences and hence investigating the role of income distribution in the context of the gravity model of trade. A theoretically justified gravity model is estimated for disaggregated trade data (Dollar volume is used as dependent variable) using a sample of 104 exporters and 108 importers for 1980–2003 to achieve two main goals. We define and calculate new measures of income distribution similarity and empirically confirm that greater similarity of income distribution between countries implies more trade. Using distribution-based measures as a proxy for demand similarities in gravity models, we find consistent and robust support for the hypothesis that countries with more similar income-distributions trade more with each other. The hypothesis is also confirmed at disaggregated level for differentiated product categories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As defined by IEEE 802.15.6 standard, channel sharing is a potential method to coordinate inter-network interference among Medical Body Area Networks (MBANs) that are close to one another. However, channel sharing opens up new vulnerabilities as selfish MBANs may manipulate their online channel requests to gain unfair advantage over others. In this paper, we address this issue by proposing a truthful online channel sharing algorithm and a companion protocol that allocates channel efficiently and truthfully by punishing MBANs for misreporting their channel request parameters such as time, duration and bid for the channel. We first present an online channel sharing scheme for unit-length channel requests and prove that it is truthful. We then generalize our model to settings with variable-length channel requests, where we propose a critical value based channel pricing and preemption scheme. A bid adjustment procedure prevents unbeneficial preemption by artificially raising the ongoing winner’s bid controlled by a penalty factor λ. Our scheme can efficiently detect selfish behaviors by monitoring a trust parameter α of each MBAN and punish MBANs from cheating by suspending their requests. Our extensive simulation results show our scheme can achieve a total profit that is more than 85% of the offline optimum method in the typical MBAN settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the effect of speed cameras on road traffic collisions using an approximate Bayesian doubly-robust (DR) causal inference estimation method. Previous empirical work on this topic, which shows a diverse range of estimated effects, is based largely on outcome regression (OR) models using the Empirical Bayes approach or on simple before and after comparisons. Issues of causality and confounding have received little formal attention. A causal DR approach combines propensity score (PS) and OR models to give an average treatment effect (ATE) estimator that is consistent and asymptotically normal under correct specification of either of the two component models. We develop this approach within a novel approximate Bayesian framework to derive posterior predictive distributions for the ATE of speed cameras on road traffic collisions. Our results for England indicate significant reductions in the number of collisions at speed cameras sites (mean ATE = -15%). Our proposed method offers a promising approach for evaluation of transport safety interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lack of homogeneity in the product (LHP) is a problem when customers require homogeneous units of a single product. In such cases, the optimal allocation of inventory to orders becomes much more complex. Furthermore, in an MTS environment, an optimal initial allocation may become less than ideal over time, due to different circumstances. This problem occurs in the ceramics sector, where the final product varies in tone and calibre. This paper proposes a methodology for the reallocation of inventory to orders in LHP situation (MERIO-LHP) and a model-based decision-support system (DSS) to support the methodology, which enables an optimal reallocation of inventory to order lines to be carried out in real businesses environments in which LHP is inherent. The proposed methodology and model-based DSS were validated by applying it to a real case at a ceramics company. The analysis of the results indicates that considerable improvements can be obtained with regard to the quantity of orders fulfilled and sales turnover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the socio-economic level of an urban region is of great significance for governments and city managers when allocating resources and making decisions. However, the current approaches for estimating regional socio-economic levels heavily rely on census data, which demands significant effort in terms of time and money. With the ubiquitous usage of smart phones and the prevalence of mobile applications, massive amounts of data are generated by mobile networks that record people’s behaviors. In this paper, we propose a low-cost approach of using humans’ online and offline indicators to predict the socio-economic levels of urban regions. The results show that the socio-economic prediction model that is trained using online and offline features extracted from these data achieves a high accuracy over 85%. Notably, online features are showed to be tightly linked with socio-economic development. In environments where censuses are rarely held, our method provides an option for timely and accurate prediction of the economic status of urban regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption of the shared prosperity goal by the World Bank in 2013 and Sustainable Development Goal 10, on inequality, by the United Nations in 2015 should strengthen the focus of development interventions and cooperation on the income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. This paper contributes to the incipient literature on within-country allocations of development institutions and assesses the geographic targeting of World Bank projects to the bottom 40 percent. Bivariate correlations between the allocation of project funding approved over 2005–14 and the geographical distribution of the bottom 40 as measured by survey income or consumption data are complemented by regressions with population and other potential factors affecting the within-country allocations as controls. The correlation analysis shows that, of the 58 countries in the sample, 41 exhibit a positive correlation between the shares of the bottom 40 and World Bank funding, and, in almost half of these, the correlation is above 0.5. Slightly more than a quarter of the countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, exhibit a negative correlation. The regression analysis shows that, once one controls for population, the correlation between the bottom 40 and World Bank funding switches sign and becomes significant and negative on average. This is entirely driven by Sub-Saharan Africa and not observed in the other regions. Hence, the significant and positive correlation in the estimations without controlling for population suggests that World Bank project funding is concentrated in administrative areas in which more people live (including the bottom 40) rather than in poorer administrative areas. Furthermore, capital cities receive disproportionally high shares of World Bank funding on average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of large renewable energy projects is characterized by the great uncertainties associated with their administrative complexity and their constructive characteristics. For proper management, it is necessary to undertake a thorough project risk assessment prior to construction. The work presented in this paper is based on a hierarchical risk structure identified by a group of experts, from which a Probabilistic Fuzzy Sets with Analysis Hierarchy Process (PFSAHP) was applied. This probabilistic analysis approach used expert opinion based on the Monte Carlo Method that allows for extracting more information from the original data. In addition, the coherence of the experts’ opinions is assessed using a novel parameter known as Confidence Level, which allows for adjusting the opinions of experts and weighting their judgments regarding impact and probability according to their coherence. This model has the advantage of offering a risk analysis in the early stages of the management of renewable energy projects in which there is no detailed information. This model is also more accurate than the classic fuzzy methodology when working with complete distribution functions, whilst it avoids the loss of information that results from the traditional mathematical operations with Fuzzy numbers. To test the model, it was applied to a 250 MW photovoltaic solar plant construction project located in southeast of Spain (Region of Murcia). As a result of the application of the proposed method, risk rankings are obtained with respect to the cost, the time, the scope and from a general point of view of the project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pallet is a very important innovation in logistics industry. Pallets are so widely used that we can find them in nearly every logistical operation scenario. In order to manage pallets efficiently, researchers have developed several pallet management strategies (PMS). The most common and widely accepted PMS includes extensive management of pallets (EMP), transfer of pallet's ownership (TPO), and pallet rent (PR). This paper addresses mainly on how to help pallet managers choose a certain kind of PMS from the perspective of supply chain cost. Firstly, cost models of three kinds of PMS are presented. Secondly, all parameters involved in the models are valued based on data that is collected from industry survey. The results show that the cost of PR is constantly lower than EMP, and also lower than TPO when the operation period is no more than 37 months. Finally, the effect of several important parameters on the cost is studied by sensitivity analysis. The selection strategies of PMS are proposed based on the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quigley derived his hybrid price model to improve the precision of predicted prices of sold homes by statistically merging data of resold homes in a repeat sales model with that of once-sold homes in a single sales hedonic price model. The literature has few applications of the hybrid model aside from those by Quigley and his collaborators. Two reasons for this underuse may be its computational intensiveness and its marginal empirical improvement in comparison with two other models. This paper first demystifies this computational intensiveness by calibrating models in Microsoft Excel with transferable procedures into other software. It second evaluates the hybrid price model’s empirical improvement as a reason for its underuse by predicting prices of 2,559 sold and resold homes observed in two inner-city neighbourhoods in Windsor, Ontario, during a 30-year period. The results as hypothesized are its lower standard errors of regression coefficients and higher simple R-squared than those of a single sales hedonic price model. Moreover, the hybrid model’s predictions have higher correlations than those of the single sales model with not only in-sample observed prices or changes in prices but also out-of-sample ones. The conclusion speculates in plans for future research about reasons for two models’ similar or dissimilar regression coefficients and standard errors predicting correspondingly similar or dissimilar sale prices of homes through time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The unrivaled computing capabilities of modern GPUs meet the demand of processing massive amounts of data seen in many application domains. While traditional HPC systems support applications as standalone entities that occupy entire GPUs, there are GPU-based DBMSs where multiple tasks are meant to be run at the same time in the same device. To that end, system-level resource management mechanisms are needed to fully unleash the computing power of GPUs in large data processing, and there were some researches focusing on it. In our previous work, we explored the single compute-bound kernel modeling on GPUs under NVidia’s CUDA framework and provided an in-depth anatomy of the NVidia’s concurrent kernel execution mechanism (CUDA stream). This paper focuses on resource allocation of multiple GPU applications towards optimization of system throughput in the context of systems. Comparing to earlier studies of enabling concurrent tasks support on GPU such as MultiQx-GPU, we use a different approach that is to control the launching parameters of multiple GPU kernels as provided by compile-time performance modeling as a kernel-level optimization and also a more general pre-processing model with batch-level control to enhance performance. Specifically, we construct a variation of multi-dimensional knapsack model to maximize concurrency in a multi-kernel environment. We present an in-depth analysis of our model and develop an algorithm based on dynamic programming technique to solve the model. We prove the algorithm can find optimal solutions (in terms of thread concurrency) to the problem and bears pseudopolynomial complexity on both time and space. Such results are verified by extensive experiments running on our microbenchmark that consists of real-world GPU queries. Furthermore, solutions identified by our method also significantly reduce the total running time of the workload, as compared to sequential and MultiQx-GPU executions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new Interpolation based Reversible Data Hiding (IRDH) scheme is reported in this paper. For different applications of an IRDH scheme to the digital image, video, multimedia, big-data and biological data, the embedding capacity requirement usually varies. Disregarding this important consideration, existing IRDH schemes do not offer a better embedding rate-distortion performance for varying size payloads. To attain this varying capacity requirement with our proposed adaptive embedding, we formulate a capacity control parameter and propose to utilize it to determine a minimum set of embeddable bits in a pixel. Additionally, we use a logical (or bit-wise) correlation between the embeddable pixel and estimated versions of an embedded pixel. Thereby, while a higher range between an upper and lower limit of the embedding capacity is maintained, a given capacity requirement within that limit is also attained with a better-embedded image quality. Computational modeling of all new processes of the scheme is presented, and performance of the scheme is evaluated with a set of popular test-images. Experimental results of our proposed scheme compared to the prominent IRDH schemes have recorded a significantly better-embedding rate-distortion performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In general, the stock prices of the same industry have a similar trend, but those of different industries do not. When investing in stocks of different industries, one should select the optimal model from lots of trading models for each industry because any model may not be suitable for capturing the stock trends of all industries. However, the study has not been carried out at present. In this paper, firstly we select 424 S&P 500 index component stocks (SPICS) and 185 CSI 300 index component stocks (CSICS) as the research objects from 2010 to 2017, divide them into 9 industries such as finance and energy respectively. Secondly, we apply 12 widely used machine learning algorithms to generate stock trading signals in different industries and execute the back-testing based on the trading signals. Thirdly, we use a non-parametric statistical test to evaluate whether there are significant differences among the trading performance evaluation indicators (PEI) of different models in the same industry. Finally, we propose a series of rules to select the optimal models for stock investment of every industry. The analytical results on SPICS and CSICS show that we can find the optimal trading models for each industry based on the statistical tests and the rules. Most importantly, the PEI of the best algorithms can be significantly better than that of the benchmark index and “Buy and Hold” strategy. Therefore, the algorithms can be used for making profits from industry stock trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many different time-series methods have been widely used in forecast stock prices for earning a profit. However, there are still some problems in the previous time series models. To overcome the problems, this paper proposes a hybrid time-series model based on a feature selection method for forecasting the leading industry stock prices. In the proposed model, stepwise regression is first adopted, and multivariate adaptive regression splines and kernel ridge regression are then used to select the key features. Second, this study constructs the forecasting model by a genetic algorithm to optimize the parameters of support vector regression. To evaluate the forecasting performance of the proposed models, this study collects five leading enterprise datasets in different industries from 2003 to 2012. The collected stock prices are employed to verify the proposed model under accuracy. The results show that proposed model is better accuracy than the other listed models, and provide persuasive investment guidance to investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The financial risk not only affects the development of the company itself, but also affects the economic development of the whole society; therefore, the financial risk assessment of company is an important part. At present, numerous methods of financial risk assessment have been researched by scholars. However, most of the extant methods neither integrated fuzzy sets with quantitative analysis, nor took into account the historical data of the past few years. To settle these defects, this paper proposes a novel financial risk assessment model for companies based on heterogeneous multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) and historical data. Subjective and objective indexes are comprehensively taken into consideration in the financial risk assessment index system of the model, which combines fuzzy theory with quantitative data analysis. Moreover, the assessment information obtained from historical financial information of company, credit rating agency and decision makers, including crisp numbers, triangular fuzzy numbers and neutrosophic numbers. Furthermore, the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method is used to determine the ranking order of companies according to their financial risk. Finally, an empirical study of financial risk assessment for companies is conducted, and the results of comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis suggest that the proposed model can effectively and reliably obtain the company with the lowest financial risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a supply chain solution integrator, fourth party logistics (4PL) has become an important focus for improving the operational efficiency of the logistics industry in recent days. This paper addresses the mechanism design problem of the 4PL for selecting a third party logistics (3PL) provider who involves loss-averse behavior to form a longer-term strategic partnership in multi-attribute reverse auctions. Due to fluctuating costs of energy or labor and unintentional delivery failures like traffic jam or technology malfunctions, we consider two incomplete attributes, namely cost uncertainty and delivery risk. Integrating the loss-averse behavior of 3PLs, based on the prospect theory, the bid decision model is constructed to obtain 3PLs’ bidding strategies. The corresponding efficient and optimal scoring auctions that consist of cost-sharing contract and contingent penalty are developed to maximize the ex ante expected profit of the system or the 4PL depending on whether the 4PL is willing to cooperate or not. Theoretical analysis verified by numerical examples illustrates the advantage of the proposed mechanisms. Impacts of model parameters on the 4PL’s decision are also investigated and managerial insights are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The clustering of time series has attracted growing research interest in recent years. The most popular clustering methods assume that the time series are only linearly dependent but this assumption usually fails in practice. To overcome this limitation, in this paper, we study clustering methods applicable to time series with a general and dependent structure. We propose a copula-based distance to measure dissimilarity among time series and consider an estimator for it, where the strong consistency of the estimator is guaranteed. Once the pairwise distance matrix for time series has been obtained, we apply a hierarchical clustering algorithm to cluster the time series and ensure its consistency. Numerical studies, including a large number of simulations and analysis of practical data, show that our method performs well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies a Non-convex State-dependent Linear Quadratic Regulator (NSLQR) problem, in which the control penalty weighting matrix in the performance index is state-dependent. A necessary and sufficient condition for the optimal solution is established with a rigorous proof by Euler-Lagrange Equation. It is found that the optimal solution of the NSLQR problem can be obtained by solving a Pseudo-Differential-Riccati-Equation (PDRE) simultaneously with the closed-loop system equation. A Comparison Theorem for the PDRE is given to facilitate solution methods for the PDRE. A linear time-variant system is employed as an example in simulation to verify the proposed optimal solution. As a non-trivial application, a goal pursuit process in psychology is modeled as a NSLQR problem and two typical goal pursuit behaviors found in human and animals are reproduced using different control weighting . It is found that these two behaviors save control energy and cause less stress over Conventional Control Behavior typified by the LQR control with a constant control weighting , in situations where only the goal discrepancy at the terminal time is of concern, such as in Marathon races and target hitting missions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to difficulties in accurately predicting the emergency timing and the magnitude of a disaster, operations for perishable emergency inventory planning often encounter expiration and shortage problems. In order to ease the expiration problem in emergency medicine preparation inventories, this paper investigates an emergency medicine closed-loop supply chain for returning unused items from an ERC (Emergency Reserve Center) to a hospital. To assure that the return strategy is meaningful, we propose a critical parameter that we term the latest return time, after which the remaining emergency medicine in the ERC cannot be returned to the hospital. In addition, the short lifetime of emergency products and uncertainty about demand time and demand quantity are also considered in this emergency inventory planning system. In analyzing the optimal ordering policies, we find that the two threshold values for the predefined return time, which affect the total costs, are not monotonous; rather, the direction of their effect is first down, then up, and then down again, which means that a better predefined value of the latest return time can be determined by minimizing total costs. By studying and comparing decentralized and centralized decisions, we find that the centralized decision system works better to control expiration and costs. Therefore, we design a coordination mechanism for the cooperation between the ERC and the hospital. Our analysis shows that we should not ignore the emergency uncertainty and perishability of emergency items. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]