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Temporal hierarchies have been widely used during the past few years as they are capable to provide more accurate coherent forecasts at different planning horizons. However, they still display some limitations, being mainly subject to the forecasting methods used for generating the base forecasts and the particularities of the examined series. This paper deals with such limitations by considering three different strategies: (i) combining forecasts of multiple methods, (ii) applying bias adjustments and (iii) selectively implementing temporal hierarchies to avoid seasonal shrinkage. The proposed strategies can be applied either separately or simultaneously, being complements to the method considered for reconciling the base forecasts and completely independent from each other. Their effect is evaluated using the monthly series of the M and M3 competitions. The results are very promising, displaying lots of potential for improving the performance of temporal hierarchies, both in terms of accuracy and bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examined results from previous studies of early life vitamin D exposure and risk of MS in adulthood, including studies on season or month of birth and of migration. A systematic review was conducted using PubMed and Web of Science databases as well as checking references cited in articles. The quality of studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale and the AMSTAR score. Twenty-eight studies were selected for analysis. Of these, six population studies investigated early life vitamin D exposure and risk of MS, and three found inverse while the remaining found no associations. A consistent seasonal tendency for MS seemed evident from 11/15 studies, finding a reduced occurrence of MS for Northern hemisphere children who were born late autumn, and late fall for children born in the Southern hemisphere. This was also confirmed by pooled analysis of 6/15 studies. Results of the migration studies showed an increased risk of MS if migration from high to low-MS-risk areas had occurred after age 15 years, while risk of MS was reduced for those migrating earlier in life (<15years). A similar, but inverse risk pattern was observed among migrants from low to high-MS-risk areas. One study found an increased risk of MS in the second generation of migrants when migrating from low to high-MS-risk areas. An association between early life vitamin D and later risk of MS seems possible, however evidence is still insufficient to conclude that low vitamin D exposure in early life increases the risk of MS in adulthood. PROSPERO register number: CRD 42016043229. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research investigating the dynamics of coupled physical systems has demonstrated that small feedback delays can allow a dynamic response system to anticipate chaotic behavior. This counterintuitive phenomenon, termed anticipatory synchronization, has been observed in coupled electrical circuits, laser semi-conductors, and artificial neurons. Recent research indicates that the same process might also support the ability of humans to anticipate the occurrence of chaotic behavior in other individuals. Motivated by this latter work, the current study examined whether the process of feedback delay induced anticipatory synchronization could be employed to develop an interactive artificial agent capable of anticipating chaotic human movement. Results revealed that incorporating such delays within the movement-control dynamics of an artificial agent not only enhances an artificial agent’s ability to anticipate chaotic human behavior, but to synchronize with such behavior in a manner similar to natural human-human anticipatory synchronization. The implication of these findings for the development of human-machine interaction systems is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study compares husbands' and wives' views on the person in a couple who should be responsible for preparing for hurricane hazards; it also examines whether the varying levels of agreement reached by husbands and wives regarding this responsibility are associated with actual preparedness behaviors. An online survey targeting married, heterosexual couples living in Sarasota County, Florida, USA was sent out between March and May, 2015. Both the husbands and the wives were asked to fill out the survey. A total of 170 surveys were used for analysis. Results suggested that husbands and wives felt that they had shared responsibility for most of the 19 preparedness behaviors considered. However, a few stereotypically masculine preparedness behaviors were found to typically fall to husbands. Husbands' and wives' views of perceived responsibility were not statistically different, but husbands tended to favor individual responsibility, while wives tended to favor joint responsibility. Higher levels of agreement were significantly associated with greater engagement in planning-related preparedness behaviors. Policy implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a new approach for learning node embeddings for weighted undirected networks. We perform a random walk on the network to extract the latent structural information and perform node embedding learning under a similarity-based framework. Unlike previous works, we apply a different criterion to capture the proximity information between nodes in a network, and use it for improved modeling of similarities between nodes. We show that the mean commute time (MCT) between two nodes, defined as the average time a random walker takes to reach a target node and return to the source, plays a crucial role in quantifying the actual degree of proximity between two nodes of the network. We then introduce a novel definition of a similarity matrix that is based on the pair-wise mean commute time captured, which enables us to adequately represent the connection of similar nodes. We utilize pseudoinverse of the Laplacian matrix of the graph for calculating such a proximity measure, capturing rich structural information out of the graph for learning more adequate node representations of a network. The results of different experiments on three real-world networks demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms existing related efforts in classification, clustering, visualization as well as link prediction tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Not much is known about the fleet level total seabird bycatch from pelagic longlines of United States vessels in the western North Atlantic or other fleets of the Atlantic or other oceans. Onboard observers generally only record seabird bycatch during line hauling. Seabirds are predominantly caught during the line setting stage, and, due to predation or mechanical action, those caught prior to the haul can drop off the hook and be lost to the onboard observer. We developed a model to gauge the size of this bycatch loss problem and provide a first approximation of its impact on estimates of total fleet bycatch. We started with a traditional loss-free bycatch model, which assumes that birds recorded were the only birds captured, and integrated into it two crucial components of the bycatch process: capture origin (set or haul) and bycatch loss of set-captures. We extracted count data on seabird bycatch loss and bycatch mortality from the literature on other longline fisheries and used these data to simulate potential total seabird bycatch in the western North Atlantic. Simulations revealed the shortcomings of both the traditional bycatch model and the current haul-only observer protocol, each of which contributed to biologically significant underestimation of total bycatch and estimation uncertainty. Based on our results, we recommend a loss-corrected modeling approach to provide a more accurate estimate of seabird mortalities in pelagic longline fisheries. Where possible, fishery-specific seabird bycatch loss rates need to be ascertained via specific set and haul observing protocols. But, even where fishery-specific estimates for a region are not available, the methodology developed here is applicable to other pelagic longline fisheries to approximate fleet-level loss-corrected bycatch. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patterns of spatial behavior dictate how we use our infrastructure, encounter other people, or are exposed to services and opportunities. Understanding these patterns through the analysis of data commonly available through commodity smartphones has become an important arena for innovation in both academia and industry. The resulting datasets can quickly become massive, indicating the need for concise understanding of the scope of the data collected. Some data is obviously correlated (for example GPS location and which WiFi routers are seen). Codifying the extent of these correlations could identify potential new models, provide guidance on the amount of data to collect, and even provide actionable features. However, identifying correlations, or even the extent of correlation, is difficult because the form of the correlation must be specified. Fractal-based intrinsic dimensionality directly calculates the minimum number of dimensions required to represent a dataset. We provide an intrinsic dimensionality analysis of four smartphone datasets over seven input dimensions, and empirically demonstrate an intrinsic dimension of approximately two. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable development goals are used as a guidance for strategies development on local, regional and national levels. The importance of including young people in this complex process is recognized in all relevant documents (i.e. Agenda 21), however it is not an easy task to elicit opinions and preferences from the youth. Furthermore, the assessment of the sustainable development goals itself presents a challenge for the noisy data and nonlinear relationships in data. Popular approach is fuzzy set models where expert knowledge is presented with comprehensible rules; however expert knowledge elicitation takes a long time too. Several studies proposed an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system approach that combines the fuzzy set theory to model expert knowledge with neural networks for inferring rules and membership functions from data to assess the sustainable development performance. We base our assumptions that ANFIS can be used to predict the importance of sustainable development pillars from the demographic data of young people. For this purpose, we have conducted an online survey on sustainable development goals opinions and importance of young people in Serbia. The sample of 386 respondents has been split into a training sample of 300 instances (to generate membership functions and fuzzy rules) and a testing sample of 86 instances to predict the importance of the three pillars. We have conducted a trace-driven simulation test to validate the results of the proposed ANFIS model. Results of the study provided insights into how the young people in Serbia assess the importance of sustainable development goals. Secondly, the results suggest that ANFIS can be applied to predict values of importance of the three sustainable development pillars with the relative error of Rel Err < 5%. It must be noted that the considered model could be further improved by using training samples with more data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Research has demonstrated benefits of social capital on depression, but variations in this relationship by geographic characteristics such as urbanicity have rarely been investigated. Methods: Using survey data on 4,209 Ghanaian and 3,148 South African adults aged 50 and above from the World Health Organization (WHO) Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE), exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were conducted to extract dimensions of social capital from survey items. Structural equation models with the extracted factors were then used to estimate the associations between social capital and depression in each sample and assess differences between urban and rural settings with measurement and structural invariance tests. Results: Factor analyses suggested three dimensions of social capital representing community engagement, sociability, and trust. Urbanicity did not substantially modify the effects of social capital on depression in either setting, but urban-rural differences in the measurement and level of social capital were observed. Urban Ghanaian older adults were less socially integrated and trusting than older rural residents (standardized mean difference: -0.28, -0.24, and -0.38 for community engagement, sociability, and trust, respectively) while urban South African older adults appeared less engaged in community activities but significantly more trusting and socially active informally than older rural residents (standardized mean difference: -0.33, 0.30, and 0.17 for community engagement, sociability, and trust, respectively). Moreover, while trust was associated with a lower risk of depression in South Africa overall, sociability and trust were associated with an increased risk of depression in Ghana. Conclusions: Results indicate that the composition and average levels of social capital differ between urban and rural older adult residents in Ghana and South Africa although urban-rural differences in the strength of the association between social capital and depression were not substantial. Furthermore, the associations between social capital and depression are context-specific and are not uniformly beneficial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Violations of personal space are associated with discomfort. However, the exact function linking the magnitude of discomfort to interpersonal distance has not yet been specified. In this study, we explore whether interpersonal distance and discomfort are isotropic with respect to uncomfortably far or close distances. We also extend previous findings with regard to intrusions into personal space as well as maintenance of distances outside of personal space. We presented subjects with 15 interpersonal distances ranging from 40 to 250 cm and obtained verbal and joystick-based ratings of discomfort. Whereas discomfort rose immediately when personal space was entered, the gradient was less steep for distances that exceeded the comfort region of personal space. Thus, personal space is anisotropic with regard to experienced discomfort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Reviews of violence against children in disaster settings focus on armed conflict. Little is understood about natural disasters which has implications in planning humanitarian response. We examined the magnitude and direction of the association between exposure to natural disasters and physical, emotional, and sexual violence against children, and assessed the quality of the evidence. Methods: We searched 15 health and social science databases from first record until May 16, 2018. Publications describing all types of quantitative study design were eligible for inclusion. We presented study characteristics and quality in a narrative form and generated pooled estimates using a three-level random effects model. We evaluated Cochrane’s Q with p-values below 0.10 and radial plots to assess heterogeneity. Planned subgroup analyses explored differential results by violence form, study design, and analysis method. Results: 11 publications met inclusion criteria. The majority were cross-sectional studies examining physical or sexual violence in the United States. We found no evidence of a consistent association or directional influence between natural disasters and violence against children. Combined categorical violence outcomes had substantial heterogeneity [Q (df = 66) = 252.83, p < 0.001]. Subgroups without evidence of heterogeneity had confidence intervals that included a possible null effect. Our findings were mainly limited by inconsistencies in operational definitions of violence, a lack of representative sampling, and unclear establishment of temporal order between natural disaster exposure and violence outcomes. Conclusions: Based on the available evidence, we cannot confidently conclude that natural disasters increase the level or severity of violence against children above non-disaster settings, however heterogeneity and study quality hamper our ability to draw firm conclusions. More nuanced and rigorous research is needed to inform practice and policy as natural disasters increasingly affect human populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on awe has grown exponentially in recent decades; however, few studies have considered whether awe-inspiring experiences also inspire other emotions. In two studies, we explored whether interventions targeting awe also evoke other discrete emotions. Additionally, we considered two constructs that may be associated with increases in each emotion—self-relevant thoughts and connectedness. In Study 1, we manipulated awe in virtual reality and examined the potential effects of a prototypical awe experience—a spacewalk accompanied by an audio clip of Carl Sagan’s Pale Blue Dot. In Study 2, we manipulated awe with a video depicting scenes of Earth from outer space paired with the same audio clip. Across both studies, a prototypical awe experience was associated not only with awe, but with compassion, gratitude, love, and optimism, along with connectedness and self-relevant thoughts. Furthermore, we found that increases in self-relevant thoughts and connectedness in response to the awe induction predicted increases in each emotion evoked and vice-versa. These findings suggest that experiences that are commonly considered awe-inspiring—such as viewing a picturesque landscape—may be more appropriately conceptualized more broadly as self-transcendent. More work is needed to determine whether the documented benefits of awe may be more appropriately interpreted as the benefits of self-transcendent emotions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the most common neurological disorders and is one of the main causes of disability. The prevalence and incidence of MS in Iran is reported to range from 5.3 to 89/ 100,000and 7 to 148.1/ 100,000, respectively. There are no systematic and meta-analysis studies on MS in Iran. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the prevalence and incidence of MS in Iran using meta-analysis. Method: A systematic review of the present study focused on MS epidemiology in Iran based on PRISMA guidelines for systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched eight international databases including Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Google Scholar search engine and six Persian databases for peer-reviewed studies published without time limit until May 2018. Data were analyzed using Comprehensive meta-analysis ver. 2 software. The review protocol has been registered in PROSPERO with ID: CRD42018114491. Results: According to searching on different databases, 39 (15%) articles finalized. The prevalence of MS in Iran was estimated 29.3/ 100,000 (95%CI: 25.6–33.5) based on random effects model. The prevalence of MS in men and women was estimated to be 16.5/ 100,000 (95%CI: 13.7–23.4) and 44.8/ 100,000 (95%CI: 36.3–61.6), respectively. The incidence of MS in Iran was estimated to be 3.4/ 100,000 (95%CI: 1.8–6.2) based on random effects model. The incidence of MS in men was estimated to be 16.5/ 100,000 (95%CI: 13.7–23.4) and the incidence of MS in women was 44.8/ 100,000 (95%CI: 36.3–61.6). The meta-regression model for prevalence and incidence of MS was significantly higher in terms of year of study (p<0.001). Conclusions: The results of this study can provide a general picture of MS epidemiology in Iran. The current meta-analysis showed that the prevalence and incidence of MS in Iran is high and is rising over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extent to which a good person-environment (PE) interest fit between student and study program leads to better study results in higher education is an ongoing debate wherein the role of the study program environment has remained inadequately studied. Unanswered questions include: how diverse study programs are in the interests of their student populations, and how this program interest diversity influences study results, in comparison to individual PE fit? The present study addressed these questions in students (N = 4,635) enrolled in open-access university education. In such an open access system, students are allowed to make study choices without prior limitations based on previous achievement or high stakes testing. Starting from the homogeneity assumption applied to this open access setting, we propose several hypotheses regarding program interest diversity, motivation, student-program interest fit, and study results. Furthermore, we applied a method of measuring interest diversity based on an existing measure of correlational person-environment fit. Results indicated that interest diversity in an open access study environment was low across study programs. Results also showed the variance present in program interest diversity was linked to autonomous and controlled motivation in the programs’ student populations. Finally, program interest diversity better explained study results than individual student fit with their program of choice. Indeed, program interest diversity explained up to 44% of the variance in the average program’s study results while individual student-program fit hardly predicted study success at all. Educational policy makers should therefore be aware of the importance of both interest fit and interest diversity during the process of study orientation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the NFL, kickers play a special role in determining the outcome of a match. There is a significant body of literature attributing the success of kicks to observed environmental and situational factors. However, the significance of these is not subject to agreement. In this study, we synthesize the deterministic and stochastic models based on data from the 2000–2017 NFL seasons to identify significant conditions associated with “choking.” This study’s empirical findings focus on integrating the statistical evidence on causality of skill and performance, and the interpretation of observed and unobserved heterogeneity of kicks, on the intervention effect of the new extra-point rule in the NFL since 2015, and on providing an in-depth evaluation of the impact of competition pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to investigate the running pace and step characteristics among various competitive-level 400-m hurdlers through inter-group and intra-athlete comparisons. We analysed spatiotemporal data involving the split time, mean step length (SL) and mean step frequency (SF) for 13 male world-class and 14 male national-level 400-m hurdlers. We analysed 16.5 ± 3.9 races for each world-class hurdler and 19.8 ± 6.0 races for each national-level hurdler (the total number of analysed runs was 491) using publicly available television and internet broadcasts. Inter-group comparisons showed that both first- and latter-halves split times of the world-class hurdlers were significantly shorter than those of the national-level hurdlers. In the latter-half phase, no significant differences of SL and SF were observed between the world-class and national level hurdlers. Intra-athlete comparisons showed that no athletes favoured only first-half phase in terms of running speed in short finish times. In contrast, finish times of all hurdlers were sensitive to running speed in the latter-half phase. In the latter half of the race, 18 of the 27 hurdlers were identified as being SF reliant during speed enhancements; running speed of the other 9 hurdlers were also sensitive to high SF. In conclusions, important findings regarding high performance in inter-group comparisons do not always corresponded with those in intra-athlete comparisons. All athletes and coaches should first prioritize maintaining high running speeds in the latter half of 400-m hurdles rather than in the first half of the race. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the uncertain population status of low-density, widely-occurring raptors, monitoring changes in abundance and distribution is critical to conserving populations. Nest-based monitoring is a common, useful approach, but the difficulty and expense of monitoring raptor nests and importance of reliable trend data to conservation requires that limited resources are allocated efficiently. Power analyses offer a helpful tool to ensure that monitoring programs have the ability to detect trends and to optimize financial resources devoted to monitoring. We evaluated alternative monitoring designs for raptors to identify appropriate survey effort to detect population trends. We used data collected from a territory-occupancy study of ferruginous hawks throughout Wyoming to guide simulations and evaluate the ability to detect trends in occupancy rates. Results suggest that greater gains in precision of trend estimation may be achieved through the addition of more sites and not more visits; statistical power was ≥80% when monitoring lasted 20 years and population declines were 20%; and probability of detection affected statistical power less than rates of population decline. Monitoring at least 150 sites for 20 years would provide reasonable estimates of trend in occupancy given certain rates of detection and occupancy, but only for population declines of 20%. Removal sampling did not result in substantial changes of any metrics used to evaluate simulations, providing little justification for employing the standard design if territory occupancy is the variable of interest. Initial rates of territory occupancy may be biased high, a problem inherent to many studies that monitor territory occupancy. We explored the effects of lower rates of initial occupancy on the ability to detect trends. Although we present data from a study of ferruginous hawks, our simulations can be applied to other raptor species with similar life history and population dynamics to provide guidance for future trend estimation of territory occupancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vehicle-pedestrian encounter at midblock crosswalks in urban centers is inevitable but the challenge to urban transportation planners is in achieving a balance between traffic flow efficiency and pedestrian safety. Vehicles are expected to yield to pedestrians who have a right of way at the midblock unsignalized crosswalks but, failure to yield causes conflicts that at times are fatal. This study investigated the effect of macroscopic factors on the vehicle yielding. Six environmental factors are considered: temporal gap size, number of traffic lanes, number of waiting pedestrians, position of pedestrian (whether on street kerb or median), traffic flow direction and presence (or absence) of monitoring ePolice. Video Data on six observed variables that influenced vehicle yielding was collected from 13 uncontrolled crosswalk locations in Shanghai city in the Peoples Republic of China. A Logit model with a 95.9% accuracy was developed to describe the vehicle yielding behavior. The results showed that gap size and number of traffic lanes had the highest influence on driver yielding decision and that drivers were more likely to yield if ePolice was present. The sensitivity analysis was conducted and appropriate recommendations on improving the pedestrians crossing safety were proposed accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the relationship of weather conditions, together with sex and country of origin, with running performance in the Boston Marathon from 1972 to 2018. A total of 580,990 observations from 382,209 different finishers were analyzed using Generalized Additive Mixed Models. Different groups and subgroups were considered such as all runners, near elite 101:200 finishers, near elite 21:100, annual top ten finishers and annual winners. Weather conditions, over the hours of the event, were average air temperature (°C), total precipitations (mm), wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) (°C), wind speed (km/h), wind direction (head wind, side wind, tail wind) and barometric pressure (hPa). These effects were examined in a multi-variable model, together with: sex, country of origin, calendar year, an interaction term country:sex and a spline smooth term in function of calendar year and sex. The average temperature, when increasing by 1°C, was related to worsened performance (by 00:01:47 h:min:sec for all finishers and by 00:00:20 h:min:sec for annual winners). Also, the pressure and wet-bulb globe temperature, when increasing, were related to worsened performances. Tail wind improved performances of all groups. Increasing precipitation was significantly (p<0.05) related to worsened performances in all groups except annual winners. Increasing wind speed was also related to worsened performances in all finishers and near elite groups. Kenyans and Ethiopians were the fastest nationalities. The sex differences (men faster than women in all groups) were the largest in near elite groups. Our findings contributed to the knowledge of the performance in Boston Marathon across calendar years, considering as main effects weather conditions, country of origin and sex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The understanding of human mobility patterns in different transportation modes is an interdisciplinary research field with a direct impact in aspects as varied as urban planning, traffic optimization, sustainability, the reduction of operating costs as well as the mitigation of pollution in urban areas. In this paper, we study the global activity of users in bike-sharing systems operating in the cities of Chicago and New York. For this transportation mode, we explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of the mobility of cyclists. In particular, through the analysis of origin-destination matrices, we characterize the spatial structure of the displacements of users. We apply a mobility model for the global activity of the system that classifies the displacements between stations in local and non-local transitions. In local transitions, cyclists move in a region around each station whereas, in the non-local case, bike users travel with long-range displacements in a similar way to Lévy flights. We reproduce the spatial dynamics by using Monte Carlo simulations. The obtained results are similar to the observed in real data and reveal that the model implemented captures important characteristics of the global spatial dynamics in the systems analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We sought to characterize the association between a forensic event (arrest or incarceration) with housing vulnerability and mental and physical health status over a four-year follow-up among a cohort of homeless and vulnerably housed individuals in Vancouver, Toronto and Ottawa. Data were obtained from the Health and Housing in Transition Study, a prospective cohort study of homeless and vulnerably housed individuals between 2009 and 2012. Participants were interviewed in-person at baseline (N = 1190) and at four annual follow-up time points. We used generalized estimating equations to characterize the independent associations between a forensic event and the number of residential moves and SF-12 physical and mental health component scores over the four-year follow-up period. We analyzed data from 1173 homeless and vulnerably housed participants. Forensic events were reported by 446 participants at baseline. In multivariate analyses, a history of forensic event in the preceding twelve months was independently associated with an increased number of residential moves over the four-year follow-up period (ARR 1.24; 95% CI 1.19–1.3). It was not, however, independently associated with a change in physical or mental health status (respective ß-estimates; 95% CI: -0.34; -1.02, 0.34, and -0.69; -1.5, 0.2). Female gender and a history of problematic substance use were significantly associated with all three primary outcomes. This suggests arrest or incarceration is associated with increased housing vulnerability. The results underline the importance of supporting individuals experiencing arrest or incarceration with post-release planning in order to obtain stable housing after discharge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have found a positive effect of cosmetics on certain behavioral measures, such as the tip given to waitresses by male patrons. These studies have employed confederates who usually wear cosmetics. We therefore sought to examine whether the positive effect found in these studies could, in part, be explained by a change in behavior. In order to test the possibility of a ‘cosmetics placebo effect’, we employed a confederate to solicit donations from passersby. On some days our confederate would not have any cosmetics applied to her face (i.e., no cosmetics condition), on some days cosmetics were pretended to be applied to her face (i.e., placebo cosmetics condition), and on other days cosmetics were actually applied to her face (i.e., cosmetics condition). In line with previous research, we found that across conditions men donated significantly more than women to our female solicitor, providing support for the ‘showoff hypothesis’, in which male generosity serves as a mating tactic. When investigating men’s donations in more detail, we found that the highest percentage of donations came in the cosmetics condition, followed by the placebo cosmetics condition, and then by no cosmetics condition. The effect of condition on donation rates, however, was not statistically significant. Our study was limited to one solicitor and one dependent variable (i.e., percentage of people approached who donated) and therefore future research would benefit from using more confederates as well as examining other behavioral measures. Given the influence of cosmetics use on so many real-world outcomes, we believe that further exploration into a possible ‘cosmetics placebo effect’ would be valuable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migratory birds like endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana) require suitable nocturnal roost sites during twice annual migrations. Whooping cranes primarily roost in shallow surface water wetlands, ponds, and rivers. All these features have been greatly impacted by human activities, which present threats to the continued recovery of the species. A portion of one such river, the central Platte River, has been identified as critical habitat for the survival of the endangered whooping crane. Management intervention is now underway to rehabilitate habitat form and function on the central Platte River to increase use and thereby contribute to the survival of whooping cranes. The goal of our analyses was to develop habitat selection models that could be used to direct riverine habitat management activities (i.e., channel widening, tree removal, flow augmentation, etc.) along the central Platte River and throughout the species’ range. As such, we focused our analyses on two robust sets of whooping crane observations and habitat metrics the Platte River Recovery Implementation Program (Program or PRRIP) and other such organizations could influence. This included channel characteristics such as total channel width, the width of channel unobstructed by dense vegetation, and distance of forest from the edge of the channel and flow-related metrics like wetted width and unit discharge (flow volume per linear meter of wetted channel width) that could be influenced by flow augmentation or reductions during migration. We used 17 years of systematic monitoring data in a discrete-choice framework to evaluate the influence these various metrics have on the relative probability of whooping crane use and found the width of channel unobstructed by dense vegetation and distance to the nearest forest were the best predictors of whooping crane use. Secondly, we used telemetry data obtained from a sample of 38 birds of all ages over the course of seven years, 2010–2016, to evaluate whooping crane use of riverine habitat within the North-central Great Plains, USA. For this second analysis, we focused on the two metrics found to be important predictors of whooping crane use along the central Platte River, unobstructed channel width and distance to nearest forest or wooded area. Our findings indicate resource managers, such as the Program, have the potential to influence whooping crane use of the central Platte River through removal of in-channel vegetation to increase the unobstructed width of narrow channels and through removal of trees along the bank line to increase unforested corridor widths. Results of both analyses also indicated that increases in relative probability of use by whooping cranes did not appreciably increase with unobstructed views ≥200 m wide and unforested corridor widths that were ≥330 m. Therefore, managing riverine sites for channels widths >200 m and removing trees beyond 165 m from the channel’s edge would increase costs associated with implementing management actions such as channel and bank-line disking, removing trees, augmenting flow, etc. without necessarily realizing an additional appreciable increase in use by migrating whooping cranes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ghost crabs have been widely used as a bio-indicator species of human impacts on sandy beaches to obtain reliable biological data for management and conservation purposes. Ghost crab population densities and individual sizes decline dramatically under human pressure. However, distribution within a beach and the factors that determine this distribution of ghost crabs is still an open question. These factors may provide valuable information for understanding human impacts on sandy beaches. Here we examine ghost crab burrows on 20 sandy beaches of South Carolina, USA under various levels of human impacts to understand the response in terms of spatial distribution of this species to human impacts. We also examine the burrow characteristics and environmental properties of the burrows to determine whether these factors alter burrow characteristics. We show that crabs on heavily impacted beaches altered their spatial distribution to mostly occupy the edges of impacted beaches. Further, this change in spatial distribution was influenced by the size distribution of the population on a beach (i.e. larger individuals occupy upper parts on the beaches). We also found that ghost crabs altered the morphology of their burrows on heavily impacted beaches. Ghost crabs create deeper, steeper and smaller burrows under human impacts. These patterns were also influenced by physical characteristics of the beach. Our results suggest that human impacts can directly influence the spatial distribution of ghost crab populations within a beach and therefore sampling at upper parts of the beaches overestimates the population density and individual sizes. Our results support the use of ghost crabs as indicator species in effective beach management, but suggest that assessments would benefit from examining the morphology and distribution of burrows as opposed to simply using burrow counts to assess the health of sandy shores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Professional football is a globalized game in which players are the most valuable assets for clubs. In this study, we explore the evolution of the football players’ transfer network among 21 European first leagues between the seasons 1996/1997 and 2015/2016. From a topological point of view, we show that this network achieved an upper limit expansion around season 2007/2008, thereafter becoming more connected and dense. Using a machine learning approach based on Self-Organizing Maps and Principal Component Analysis we confirm that European competitions, such as the UEFA Champions League or UEFA Europa League, are indeed a “money game” where the clubs with the highest transfer spending achieve better sportive performance. Some clubs’ transfer market activities also affect domestic performance. We conclude from our findings that the relationship between transfer spending and domestic or international sportive performance might lead to substantial inequality between clubs and leagues, while potentially creating a virtuous (vicious) circle in which these variables reinforce (weaken) each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dehumanization and infrahumanization involve decreasing the humanity attributed to others. Despite the existence of a large body of work on these topics, little is known about how to increase outgroup humanization. Across two experiments, we examined the effects of intergroup and intragroup helping on dehumanization and infrahumanization. In Study 1, we showed that news of an outgroup helping the ingroup after a natural disaster reduced infrahumanization, but not dehumanization. Reduced infrahumanization emerged regardless of the amount of aid given by the outgroup. By contrast, learning about ingroup helping the outgroup following a natural disaster did not decrease dehumanization or infrahumanization, regardless of amount of aid offered by the ingroup. Study 2 replicated and extended these findings by demonstrating that only intergroup helping by the outgroup to the ingroup reduced dehumanization. Intragroup helping, by either the ingroup or outgroup had no influence on outgroup perceptions. We report all measures, manipulations, and exclusions in each study. Implications of recent research on intergroup helping as a means to outgroup humanization are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial indicators are used to quantify the state of species and ecosystem status, that is the impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes, as well as to comprehend species ecology. These metrics are thus, determinant to the stakeholder’s decisions on the conservation measures to be implemented. A detailed review of the literature (55 papers) showed that 18 spatial indicators were commonly used in marine ecology. Those indicators were than characterized and studied in detail, based on its application to empirical data (a time series of 35 marine species spatial distributions, sampled either with a random stratified survey or a regular transects surveys). The results suggest that the indicators can be grouped into three classes, that summarize the way the individuals occupy space: occupancy (the area occupied by a species), aggregation (spreading or concentration of species biomass) and quantity dependent (indicators correlated with biomass), whether these are spatially explicit (include the geographic coordinates, e.g. center of gravity) or not. Indicator’s temporal variability was lower than between species variability and no clear effect was observed in relation to sampling design. Species were then classified accordingly to their indicators. One indicator was selected from each of the three categories of indicators, to represent the main axes of species spatial behavior and to interpret them in terms of occupancy-aggregation-quantity relationships. All species considered were then classified according to their relationships among those three axes, into species that under increasing abundancy, primarily increase occupancy or aggregation or both. We suggest to use these relationships along the three-axes as surveillance diagrams to follow the yearly evolution of species distributional patterns in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does the presence of a robot co-worker influence the performance of humans around it? Studies of motor contagions during human-robot interactions have examined either how the observation of a robot affects a human’s movement velocity, or how it affects the human’s movement variance, but never both together. Performance however, has to be measured considering both task speed (or frequency) as well as task accuracy. Here we examine an empirical repetitive industrial task in which a human participant and a humanoid robot work near each other. We systematically varied the robot behavior, and observed whether and how the performance of a human participant is affected by the presence of the robot. To investigate the effect of physical form, we added conditions where the robot co-worker torso and head were covered, and only the moving arm was visible to the human participants. Finally, we compared these behaviors with a human co-worker, and examined how the observed behavioral affects scale with experience of robots. Our results show that human task frequency, but not task accuracy, is affected by the observation of a humanoid robot co-worker, provided the robot’s head and torso are visible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a non-parametric extension of the conditional logit model, using Gaussian process priors. The conditional logit model is used in quantitative social science for inferring interaction effects between personal features and choice characteristics from observations of individual multinomial decisions, such as where to live, which car to buy or which school to choose. The classic, parametric model presupposes a latent utility function that is a linear combination of choice characteristics and their interactions with personal features. This imposes strong and unrealistic constraints on the form of individuals’ preferences. Extensions using non-linear basis functions derived from the original features can ameliorate this problem but at the cost of high model complexity and increased reliance on the user in model specification. In this paper we develop a non-parametric conditional logit model based on Gaussian process logit models. We demonstrate its application on housing choice data from over 50,000 moving households from the Stockholm area over a two year period to reveal complex homophilic patterns in income, ethnicity and parental status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding fire impacts on peatland vegetation can inform management to support function and prevent degradation of these important ecosystems. However, time since burn, interval between burns and number of past burns all have the potential to modify impacts. Grazing regime may also affect vegetation directly or via an interaction with burning. We used new, comprehensive survey data from a hillslope-scale field experiment initiated in 1954 to investigate the effects of burning and grazing treatments on Sphagnum. Historical data were consulted to aid interpretation of the results. The unburned reference and the most frequently burned (10-year rotation) treatments had greater Sphagnum abundance and hummock height than intermediate treatments (20-year rotation and no-burn since 1954). Abundance of the most common individual species (S. capillifolium, S. subnitens and S. papillosum) followed similar patterns. Light grazing had no impact on Sphagnum-related variables, nor did it interact with the burning treatments.These results suggest that in some cases fire has a negative impact on Sphagnum, and this can persist for several decades. However, fire return interval and other factors such as atmospheric pollution may alter effects, and in some cases Sphagnum abundance may recover. Fire severity and site specific conditions may also influence effects, so we advise consideration of these factors, and caution when using fire as a management tool on peatlands where Sphagnum is considered desirable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adverse weather related to reduced visibility caused by fog and rain can seriously affect the mobility and safety of drivers. It is meaningful to develop effective intelligent transportation system (ITS) strategies to mitigate the negative effects of these different types of adverse weather related to reduced visibility by investigating the effect of rain and fog on traffic parameters. A number of previous researches focused on analyzing the effect of adverse weather related to reduced visibility by using simulated traffic and weather data. There are few researchers that addressed the impact of adverse weather instances using real-time data. Moreover, this paper conducts comprehensive investigation to clearly compare the changes of driving behavior and traffic parameters in adverse weather including fog and rain using real-time traffic and weather data collected by advanced vehicle-based traffic sensors and weather sensors. After some preliminary analysis, the analysis of variance method (ANOVA) was applied to further compare the significance of effects of these two kinds of adverse weather on traffic parameters. The conditional regression models were employed finally to explore the relationship between these two types of adverse weather and traffic parameters. The results would be beneficial to develop effective intelligent traffic control countermeasures under these different types of adverse weather conditions related to reduced visibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biogeochemical maps of coastal regions can be used to identify important influences and inputs that define nearshore environments and biota. Biogeochemical tracers can also track animal movement and their diet, monitor human coastal development, and evaluate the condition of habitats and species. However, the beneficial applications of spatial biogeochemical analysis are hindered by a limited understanding of how tracer distribution is affected by different land and ocean–based influences. To help address these knowledge gaps, we determined the spatial trends of three stable isotopes (δ13C-carbon, δ15N-nitrogen, δ34S-sulfur) and 13 major and trace elements in an urbanized coastal embayment (Moreton Bay, Australia), as incorporated into the muscle tissue of a marine consumer, the eastern king prawn Melicertus plebejus. Results were used to identify unique biochemical regions within the bay and to discuss how spatial patterns in tracers could be used to indicate the relative importance of catchment, urban and offshore drivers in coastal bays. Discriminant analysis identified seven biogeochemical regions that were likely distinguished by variation in catchment, urban, and offshore input, and habitat type. δ13C and δ15N patterns suggested nearshore areas could be distinguished by increased sediment resuspension and higher wastewater inputs from catchments. High inshore lead (Pb) and copper (Cu) concentrations were likely the result of urban input. Arsenic (As) and cadmium (Cd) increased further from shore. This trend implied oceanic influences were a significant control over As and Cd bioavailability. Cobalt (Co) and rare earths were also used to differentiate some nearshore areas, but incongruent distribution patterns in Co suggested it may be less reliable. Overall, results indicated that δ15N, δ13C, Cd, Cu, Pb and rare earth elements were the most reliable tracers to differentiate nearshore and offshore environments, and catchment–based effects. We encourage future studies to consider using a similar multivariate approach in coastal spatial analysis, and to include unrelated tracers that reflect distinct coastal influences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]