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Early warning tools are crucial for the timely application of intervention strategies and the mitigation of the adverse health, social and economic effects associated with outbreaks of epidemic potential such as COVID-19. This paper introduces, the Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), a new, conceptually simple, early warning tool for oncoming epidemic waves. EVI is based on the volatility of newly reported cases per unit of time, ideally per day, and issues an early warning when the volatility change rate exceeds a threshold. Data on the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 are used to demonstrate the use of EVI. Results from the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy and New York State are presented here, based on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, from January 22, 2020, until April 13, 2021. Live daily updated predictions for all world countries and each of the United States of America are publicly available online. For Italy, the overall sensitivity for EVI was 0.82 (95% Confidence Intervals: 0.75; 0.89) and the specificity was 0.91 (0.88; 0.94). For New York, the corresponding values were 0.55 (0.47; 0.64) and 0.88 (0.84; 0.91). Consecutive issuance of early warnings is a strong indicator of main epidemic waves in any country or state. EVI's application to data from the current COVID-19 pandemic revealed a consistent and stable performance in terms of detecting new waves. The application of EVI to other epidemics and syndromic surveillance tasks in combination with existing early warning systems will enhance our ability to act swiftly and thereby enhance containment of outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to explore the effect of socioeconomic disadvantage accumulated in marginalised Roma communities (MRCs) on early childhood development and to assess the role of selected socioeconomic indicators in the association between belonging to MRCs vs. the majority and early childhood development. We obtained cross-sectional data from 232 mother–child dyads from MRCs and the majority population. The differences in early childhood development and background variables between the two groups were tested using chi-square and Mann–Whitney U tests. The moderated mediation was tested using PROCESS Macro in SPSS Model 14 on 5000 bootstrap samples. Statistically significant differences between children from MRCs and the majority were found in terms of maternal age, parental education, household equipment, as well as early childhood development. Household equipment moderated the indirect effect of being from MRCs vs. the majority on early childhood development through parental education. The indirect effect through parental education was high at a low household equipment level, reduced at an average level and non-significant at a high level of household equipment. Our study uncovered disparities in early childhood development between children from MRCs and the majority population. Parental education significantly influenced developmental outcomes, while household equipment mitigated its impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus is believed to originate in China from where it spread to other parts of the world. The first cluster of diseased individuals was reported in China as early as in December 2019. It has also been well established that the virus stroke Italy later in January or in February 2020, hence distinctly after the outbreak in China. The work by Apolone et al. published in the Italian Medical Journal in November 2020 and retracted upon expression of concern on 22 March 2021, however propose that the virus could have stroke people already in September 2019, possibly following even earlier outbreak in China. By fitting an early part of the epidemic curve with the exponential and extrapolating it backwards, we could estimate the day-zero of the epidemic and calculated its confidence intervals in Italy and China. We also calculated how probable it is that Italy encountered the virus prior 1 January 2020. We determined an early portion of the epidemic curve representing unhindered exponential growth which fit the exponential model with high determination >0.97 in both countries. We conservatively suggest that the day-zero in China and Italy was 8 December 2019 (95% CI: 3 Dec., 20 Dec.) and 22 January 2020 (95% CI: 16 Jan., 29 Jan.), respectively. Given the uncertainty of the very early data in China and adjusting hence our model to fit the exponentially behaved data only, we can even admit that the pandemic originated through November 2019 (95% CI: 31 Oct., 22 Dec.). With high confidence (p <0.01) China encountered the virus prior Italy. We generally view any pre-pandemic presence of the virus in humans before November 2019 as very unlikely. The later established dynamics of the epidemics data suggests that the country of the origin was China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had, and still has, a profound impact on national health systems, altering trajectories of care and exacerbating existing inequalities in health. Postponement of surgeries and cancellation of elective surgical procedures have been reported worldwide. In Italy, the lock-down measures following the COVID-19 pandemic caused cancellations of surgical procedures and important backlogs; little is known about potential social inequalities in the recovery process that occurred during the post-lockdown period. This study aims at evaluating whether all population social strata benefited equally from the surgical volumes' recovery in four large Italian regions. Methods: This multicentre cohort study covers a population of approximately 11 million people. To assess if social inequalities exist in the recovery of eight indicators of elective and oncological surgery, we estimated Risk Ratios (RR) through Poisson models, comparing the incidence proportions of events recorded during COVID-19 (2020-21) with those in pre-pandemic years (2018-19) for each pandemic period and educational level. Results: Compared to 2018-19, volumes of elective surgery showed a U-shape with the most significant drops during the second wave or the vaccination phase. The recovery was socially unequal. At the end of 2021, incidence proportions among highly educated people generally exceeded the expected ones; RRs were 1.31 (95%CI 1.21–1.42), 1.24 (95%CI 1.17–1.23), 1.17 (95%CI 1.08–1.26) for knee and hip replacement and prostatic surgery, respectively. Among low educated patients, RR remained always < 1. Oncological surgery indicators showed a similar social gradient. Whereas volumes were preserved among the highly educated, the low educated were still lagging behind at the end of 2021. Conclusions: Surgical procedures generally returned to pre-pandemic levels but the low educated experienced the slowest recovery. An equity-oriented appraisal of trends in healthcare provision should be included in pandemic preparedness plans, to ensure that social inequalities are promptly recognised and tackled. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Identifying predictive factors of long COVID syndrome (LCS) is essential to preventing and managing this condition. We investigated the prevalence, symptoms, and risk factors of LCS in a cohort of Italian children and adolescents. Methods: We carried out a cross-sectional survey on demographic characteristics and clinical data related to COVID-19 phase and LCS in a cohort of children and adolescents, sending a questionnaire by using the PEDIATOTEM platform. Results: The prevalence of LCS was 25% (99/396). The most frequent symptoms of LCS included nasal congestion, diarrhea, headache, and fatigue. We found no association between demographic data (gender, age, and ethnicity) and LCS. Additionally, we showed that patients with concurrent allergic rhinitis, atopic dermatitis, respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, and rheumatologic disease had a higher risk of LCS than patients without those comorbidities. Patients experiencing fatigue, muscle, and abdominal pain in COVID-19 showed a higher risk of LCS than patients complaining of other symptoms. We found no association between vaccination and LCS. Conclusions: Specific comorbidities or symptoms during acute illness were identified as being risk factors for LCS. Understanding which are the risk factors for LCS could yield a clearer picture of its pathogenesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a considerable impact on the psychological and psychopathological status of the population and health care workers in terms of insomnia, anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder. The primary aim of this study was to describe and evaluate the impact of the pandemic on insomnia levels of a cohort of Italian nurses, particularly those involved in the care of COVID-19 patients. The secondary aim was to identify the interaction between insomnia and hardiness, anxiety, and sleep disturbances. Materials and Methods: A descriptive–exploratory study was conducted using an online survey during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (March to July 2020). The questionnaire consisted of multiple-choice, open-ended, closed, and semi-closed questions. The psychometric tools administered were the Dispositional Resilience Scale (DRS-15), the State–Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI-Y), and the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI). Results: a cohort of 1167 nurses fully completed the questionnaire (86.2% of total respondents). The insomnia scale survey showed an increase in post-pandemic scores compared to those before the pandemic, implying that insomnia levels increased after the first pandemic wave. Insomnia scores were directly correlated with anxiety levels (r = 0.571; p ≤ 0.05) and inversely correlated with hardiness levels (r = −0.324; p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed the following protective factors: not having worked in COVID-19 wards, high levels of hardiness (commitment), and the presence of high pre-pandemic insomnia disorder. The main risk factor for insomnia reported in the analysis was a high anxiety score. Discussion and Conclusion: Anxiety represented the main risk factor for insomnia severity in our sample, while hardiness was confirmed as a protective factor. Thus, it is necessary to design further studies to identify additional risk factors for poor sleep quality and to develop educational courses and strategies aimed at enhancing rest and sleep quality, especially for frontline nurses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the outbreak of a disease caused by a pathogen with unknown characteristics, the uncertainty of its progression parameters can be reduced by devising methods that, based on rational assumptions, exploit available information to provide actionable insights. In this study, performed a few (~6) weeks into the outbreak of COVID-19 (caused by SARS-CoV-2), one of the most important disease parameters, the average time-to-recovery, was calculated using data publicly available on the internet (daily reported cases of confirmed infections, deaths, and recoveries), and fed into an algorithm that matches confirmed cases with deaths and recoveries. Unmatched cases were adjusted based on the matched cases calculation. The mean time-to-recovery, calculated from all globally reported cases, was found to be 18.01 days (SD 3.31 days) for the matched cases and 18.29 days (SD 2.73 days) taking into consideration the adjusted unmatched cases as well. The proposed method used limited data and provided experimental results in the same region as clinical studies published several months later. This indicates that the proposed method, combined with expert knowledge and informed calculated assumptions, could provide a meaningful calculated average time-to-recovery figure, which can be used as an evidence-based estimation to support containment and mitigation policy decisions, even at the very early stages of an outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite concerns on mental health problems related to lockdowns, recent reports revealed a reduction in psychiatric admissions in Emergency Departments (ED) during the lockdown period compared with the previous year in several countries. Most of the existing studies focused on the first lockdown not considering the different phases of the COVID-19 crisis. The present study aimed to analyze differences in ED admission for psychiatric consultation during three different phases of the COVID-19 health crisis in Italy. Methods: Information on ED admission for psychiatric consultations were retrospectively collected at the ED of the Santo Spirito Hospital in Rome (Italy), and compared between the three periods: the lockdown (March–June 2020) and the post-lockdown period (June 2020–June 2021) compared to the pre-lockdown (January 2019–March 2020). Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the risk of accessing ED for psychiatric consultation before, during, after the lockdown. Results: Three thousand and eight hundred seventy-one ED psychiatric consultations were collected. A significant reduction of psychiatric consultations in ED during the lockdown period and the post-lockdown (H 762,45; p < 0.001) was documented. Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that compared to pre-lockdown during the lockdown and post-lockdown patients were more likely to be men (RRR 1.52; 95% CI 1.10–2.12) and more often diagnosed with non-severe mental illnesses (nSMI) (relative risk ratio [RRR] 1.53, 95% CI 1.10–2.15; and 1.72, 95% CI 1.42–2.08); during the lockdown, patients were also more often diagnosed with alcohol/substance abuse (A&S) (RRR 1.70; 95% CI 1.10–2.65). Conclusions: several changes in the clinical characteristics of psychiatric consultations during and after the lockdown emerged from the present study; nSMI and A&S abuse patients were more likely to present at the ED in the lockdown and post-lockdown periods while SMI patients appeared to be less likely. These may inform clinicians and future preventive strategies among community mental health services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Evidence showed that mental health problems have risen markedly during COVID-19. It is unclear if part of the mental sufferings relates to the climate of uncertainty and confusion originated from rough communication by health officials and politicians. Here, we test the impact of unanticipated policy announcements of lockdown policies on mental health of the older population. Methods We used a representative telephone-based survey of 4400 people aged 65 years or older in Italy's Lombardy region to compare information on self-reported symptoms of anxiety, depression and poor-quality sleep of subjects interviewed on the days of the policy announcement with that of subjects interviewed on other days. We used regression models adjusting for potential socio-demographic confounders as well study design with inverse probability weighting. Results On days when policymakers announced to extend the lockdown, mental health deteriorated on average by 5.5 percentage points [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1–9.8] for self-reported anxiety symptoms and 5.1 percentage points (95% CI: 2.7–7.4) for self-reported depressive symptoms. The effect of the announcement to shorten the lockdown is more moderate but statistically significant. These associations were short term in duration; after just 1 day, self-reported mental health and sleep quality return to levels better than pre-announcement until a new policy change. Conclusions Our research shows that lockdown policy announcements are associated with short-term worsening in mental distress, highlighting the importance of appropriate communication strategies and political determinations in crisis times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, asymptomatic transmission represented an important challenge for controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 through the traditional public health strategies. Further understanding of the contribution of asymptomatic infections to SARS-CoV-2 transmission has been of crucial importance for pandemic control. We conducted a retrospective epidemiological study to characterize asymptomatic COVID-19 cases occurred in the Apulia region, Italy, during the first epidemic wave of COVID-19 outbreak (February 29-July 7, 2020). We analyzed data collected in a regional platform developed to manage surveillance activities, namely, investigation and follow-up of cases and contacts, contact tracing, and laboratory and clinical data collection. We included all asymptomatic cases that were laboratory-confirmed during the appropriate follow-up, defined as persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 who did not develop symptoms/clinical signs of the disease. Between February 29 and July 7, 2020, a total of 4,536 cases were diagnosed with COVID-19 among 193,757 tests performed. The group of persons with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection consisted of 903 cases; the asymptomatic proportion was 19.9% (95% CI: 18.8-21.1%); this decreased with increasing age (OR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.83-0.96; p = 0.001), in individuals with underlying comorbidities (OR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.41-0.73; p < 0.001), and in males (OR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.54-0.87; p = 0.002). The median asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 RNA positive period was 19 days (IQR: 14-31) and the cumulative proportion of persons with resolution of infection 14 days after the first positive PCR test was 74%. As the public health community is debating the question of whether asymptomatic and late spreaders could sustain virus transmission in the communities, such cases present unique opportunities to gain insight into SARS-CoV-2 adaptation to human host. This has important implications for future COVID-19 surveillance and prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the article, the authors present their study to assess the effectiveness of the integration of traditional 6-minute walk test into a quick walk test (QWT) in the assessment of pulmonary impairment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Also cited are some common symptoms of COVID-19 like fever, cough and dyspnia, and the study's focus on the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) in said patients.

The COVID-19 outbreak variably affected people's mental reactions worldwide but was only episodically investigated in healthy Italian teenagers. Our aim was to investigate the emotional responses of Italian middle and high school students to the pandemic. An anonymous 10-item questionnaire was distributed in pre-selected school samples. Responders had to score their perceived extent for each reaction from 0 (lowest perception) to 10 (highest perception). A group of adults was selected as control. Generalized linear models were used to estimate differences among adults and students, high school (HS) and middle school (MS) students, and urban (U) and rural (R) MS students. Comparisons were presented as mean difference (Δ) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). A total of 1512 questionnaires (635 adults, 744 HS, 67 UMS, and 66 RMS) were analyzed. Students appeared more indifferent (Δ = 1.97, 1.52–2.41), anxious (Δ = 0.56, 0.07–1.04), aggressive (Δ = 2.21, 1.72–2.70), and depressed (Δ = 1.87, 1.40–2.34) than adults did, and claimed a higher loss of interest in their activities (Δ = 1.21, 0.72–1.70). Students were less disbelieving (Δ = −0.93, −1.50–0.35) and feared for their loved ones (Δ = −0.89, −1.40–0.39). MS students were less affected by the outbreak than HS students were. Furthermore, R-MS students were significantly less aggressive and depressed, but more indifferent and disbelieving than U-MS. Female sex was an independent factor associated to almost all the questionnaire domains. The pattern of the psychological responses to the pandemic in Italian students proved multifaceted. In addition to anxiety, loss of interest in activities, and depression, aggressiveness emerged as the most characterizing mental attitude in response to the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]