Search

There is also a growing body of literature on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, but many of these studies need to include the import variable. This study examines the state of trade in goods between Bulgaria and the world for 2018-2022 and investigates the cointegration between both export/import and economic growth of Bulgaria through employing yearly data for 1990-2022. The Engle-Granger's cointegrating test was used to study the long-term relationship between variables. The results show a positive and significant long-term relationship between Bulgarian exports and imports and gross domestic product at a 99% confidence level. This leads us to two conclusions: first, Bulgarian exports are more variable over time than Bulgarian imports, and second, the development of Bulgarian foreign trade will positively affect its economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The association between economic growth and immigration has been a long-time debatable area among economists. Yet, the asymmetric connection stays somewhat ignored area in this strand of the literature. The investigation of a nonlinear and asymmetric relationship between economic growth and immigration is motivated by empirical insights. The structural change and resulted nonlinear behavior in the real GDP per capita and immigration series is due to idiosyncratic shocks in data. Events such as the global financial crisis (2008–2009), Asian currency crisis (1997–98), Dot-com bubble burst (2001), and sudden extreme events (terrorist attack on September 11, 2001) can cause structural breaks in the series and exhibit nonlinear behavior. Thus, in this paper we examine the asymmetric association of the immigration-GDP per capita nexus via utilizing the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL). The asymmetric influence of GDP was generated by the disintegrations of GDP into positive and negative changes. The paper finds evidence of long-run relationship (cointegration), using annual data from 1947- 2018. The empirical analysis presents verification of long- and short-run asymmetric effect. The paper finds that positive shocks of real GDP per capita affects immigration, while no such effect is found for the negative changes, both in the short- and long-run. Finally, the vector error correction model (VECM) illustrates significant long-and short-run unidirectional causality running from positive change of GDP per capita to immigration. However, the VECM model suggests a significant long-run bidirectional causality between immigration and GDP per capita decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the effects of financial development and trade openness on economic growth were investigated using annual data for Turkey over the period 1960–2017. The financial development variable is represented as the ratio of financial system deposits to GDP. The trade openness variable is represented as the ratio of the sum of exports and imports of goods and services to GDP. To examine the long-run relationship between financial development, trade openness and economic growth; Fourier-based stationarity test and its complementary Fourier-based cointegration test are used. Finally, Fourier-based causality tests are also used to examine the causality relationship between the variables. As a result of cointegration tests, a long-term cointegration relationship was found between variables. According to the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis results, it is seen that there is a one-way causality relationship from financial development to economic growth and from financial development to trade openness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to provide insights into the decoupling of GDP growth and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Morocco, a developing country with the ambitious goals of reducing GHG and strongly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change. The Engle-Granger cointegration method was used in addition to the Tapio elastic analysis based on annual time series data from 1990 to 2018. The cointegration test indicates a significant long-term relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and Gross Domestic Product with a coefficient equal to 0.85. On the other hand, Tapio's decoupling index method presents mixed results both by pollutant and by time period. Nevertheless, total greenhouse gas emissions, with a decoupling index valued at 0.7, exhibit a weak impact decoupling throughout the entire sample period wherein emissions continue to grow at a lower rate than the Gross Domestic Product. The findings are coherent with the view that more aggressive carbon pricing initiatives (CPI) policies will likely be necessary to achieve the ambitious goals set by the Moroccan government to achieve absolute decoupling. [Display omitted] • Engle-Granger cointegration and Tapio's elastic analysis to study decoupling. • One of the first decoupling studies done for North Africa particularly Morocco. • Long-term relationship found between Gross Domestic Product and greenhouse gases. • Weak decoupling state was the most frequent in Morocco between 1990 and 2018. • Need for more aggressive policies such as carbon pricing initiatives (CPI). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Economics / Economia Internazionale is the property of Camera di Commercio di Genova and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In the global economy, the service sector plays a dynamic role, contributing to various facets of the economy. It is the largest contributor to the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states, and its contribution to GDP in ASEAN countries is on the rise. Given the growing contribution of the sector in the ASEAN countries, this study explores the role of the growth of the services sector in their economies' economic growth. Using panel cointegration (long-run) tests and pooled mean group Autoregressive Distributed-lag (ARDL) model on yearly data from 1970 to 2017, the findings support both short- and long-run association between growth in the services sector and economic growth of the ASEAN economies. This cross-country analysis also provides insight into the impact of services-sector growth to per capita economic growth of each of the ASEAN countries. The results support the notion that growth in the services sector in ASEAN economies should be given significant support for the economic growth of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examined the impact of interest rate and economic growth as determinant of the firm’s investment decision in Nigeria between the period of 1989 and 2019. The study disaggregated interest rate and economic growth into external borrowing, exchange rate, inflation rate, and gross domestic product in line with the predicated theories reviewed. The data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. Based on the mixed level of stationarity of the variables as revealed by the unit root test, the study made use of the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to analyze the data. The bound test revealed that; there was the presence of co-integration (long-run relationship) among the dependent and all the explanatory variables consequently the study estimated the ARDLECM. The findings from the result point to a unique long-term relationship between interest rates, external borrowing, exchange rate, and economic growth. The result also revealed that there is no strong empirical evidence that there is a link between the interest rate and investment decisions in Nigeria. It was concluded that as a prerequisite for economic growth, the government must embark on growth-enhancing reforms and be tender to the behavior of interest rates in the economy. This will guide the formulation of private sector development policy as an enabler of global economic growth in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign direct investments are seen as a prerequisite for gaining and maintaining competitiveness. The research objective of this study is to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in "new" European Union member countries using various unit root, cointegration, as well as causality tests. The paper employs annual data for FDI and gross domestic product (GDP) from 2002 to 2018 for the 13 most recent members of European Union (EU13): Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. An estimated panel ARDL (PMG) model found evidence that there is a long-run equilibrium between the LogGDP, LogFDI and LogFDIP series, with the rate of adjustment back to equilibrium between 3.27% and 20.67%. In the case of the LogFDI series, long-run coefficients are highly statistically significant in all four models, varying between 0.0828 and 0.3019. These coefficients indicate that a 1% increase in LogFDI increases LogGDP between 0.0828% and 0.3019%. Results of a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicated that a relationship between the GDP growth rate and FDI growth rate is only indirect. Finally, only weak evidence was shown that FDI had a statistically significant impact on GDP in the EU13 countries over the period 2002-2018. This report of findings contributes to the literature concerning FDI and economic growth, namely regarding the current understanding of the relationship between these two factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most important goals of developing nations is to achieve rapid economic growth. There is a consensus in the literature of economics that a well-developed financial sector will accelerate economic growth. However, few studies have examined the link between participation banks and economic growth. To contribute to the literature, this study aims to analyze the relationship between participation banks and economic growth for the case of Turkey. To reach this purpose, we established a neoclassical growth model by employing gross domestic product, total credits given by participation banks, gross fixed capital formation and the number of employed persons using time series data covering the period of 2005Q4-2020Q2. We conducted a battery of unit root tests, co-integration, and causality tests. The results reveal that there is a long run stable relationship among the variables. As for the long-run estimators, a 1% increase in gross fixed capital formation, employment and credits given by participation banks will lead to 0.715%, 0.422% and 0.021% increase in economic growth in Turkey. These findings suggest that participation banks, as well as capital and labor, have a statistically significant impact on the economic growth of Turkey. The causality test results show that there is a one-way causal relationship from participation banks’ funds to economic growth both in the short and long run but not vice versa. Two important policy implications emerge from this study. Firstly, participation banks may play an essential role in bringing idle funds to the banking system in Turkey. Therefore, participation banks should be seen as complementary to conventional banks rather than a substitute. Secondly, participation banks should diversify their products by introducing new financial products and services to unleash their untapped potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The aim of the study is to reveal the relationship between economic growth and tourism receipts between 1995 and 2018 for Turkey. Design/methodology/approach: Econometric analysis method was used in the research. The existence of a long-term relationship between variables was questioned by the Johansen Cointegration Test. Least Squares Method was used for regression analysis. Findings: The results suggest that there is cointegration between economic growth and tourism receipts. In the longrun tourism receipts effect economic growth positively. According to the estimated model with Least Squares Method, each %1 increse in the tourism receipt increases GDP %0.21 and the percentage change in the tourism receipts can explain the %86 of the percentage change in GDP in the %95 confidence interval. Practical implications: This research has significant implications for both policy makers and investors. The government has to consider the effect of the tourism industry while planning the investments, expenditures and incentives. Originality/value: This study allows to make forecast for the future and gives opportunity to make comparison for the subsequent researchers with the latest findings in this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Namibia is an open economy where international trade accounts for a greater proportion of gross domestic product (GDP). Openness of the Namibian economy for the period 2010 to 2018 has been on average 111% of GDP. The high level of openness of the economy raised an important question on the relationship between export and economic growth in Namibia. Previous studies investigated the linear relationship between these two variables. The investigation was also done at an aggregate level. This raises important questions on whether the relationship between export and economic growth is asymmetric. It also raises an important question on whether this relationship is sector specific. Aim: In order to fill the gap in previous research, this study investigates the asymmetric or non-linear relationship between the main export sectors and economic growth in Namibia. A non-linear relationship between the two variables will indicate that negative and positive values of the explanatory variables have different effects on the dependent variable. This analysis is done for the main export sectors of the Namibian economy in order to ensure the policy recommendations are sector specific. Setting: Standard economic theoretical models on the relationship between export and economic growth are used to test the non-linear relationship between the two variables. The study covers the period 2010–2018 and focuses on the three main export sectors (diamonds, manufactured food and live animal products) and growth of the Namibian economy. Methods: This study uses non-linear autoregressive distributive lag in order to estimate the asymmetric relationship between the main export sectors and economic growth of Namibia. The estimation is done for the three main exporters of the Namibian economy. Results: The results indicate that there is a symmetric relationship between main export sectors and economic growth of the Namibian economy. The results show that an increase (positive values) in export of the three main export products will cause economic growth to improve. Negative values (decrease in export) will cause economic growth to deteriorate. Conclusion: The results suggest that estimating the non-linear relationship for different sectors of the economy (instead of estimating the relationship at aggregate level for total exports) will ensure that economic policies are sector-specific. The results further suggest that when exports are declining, expansionary policies will be the appropriate responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines equilibrium relationships and dynamic causality between economic growth, exports, and imports in Nepal using time-series data between 1965 and 2020. This research examines the impact of exports and imports on the economic growth of Nepal and documents empirical evidence in exports-led growth, imports-led growth, growth-led exports, and growth-led imports hypotheses in both the short and long run. The test results show no evidence favoring the exports-led growth and growth-led exports hypotheses in both the short and long run. However, the study finds evidence supporting the imports-led growth hypothesis in the short term and the growth-led imports hypothesis in the long term. Overall, this paper finds no evidence in favor of the notion that foreign trade supports the economic growth of Nepal in the long run. The research findings may have important implications for policymakers in Nepal. The paper contributes to trade and economic growth literature by investigating the relationship between exports, imports, capital, and gross domestic products in a small economy such as Nepal, where exports make a minimal and imports make an extensive contribution to gross domestic products by using cointegration and the vector error correction model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been shown in prior research that increased economic growth reduces poverty. Authors have also found that the effect of growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on poverty growth has either diminished or remained unchanged over time, and economic expansion in the 1980s in the United States had no affect on poverty. Using a formal error-correction model, we find that increases in economic growth are significantly related to reductions in the poverty rate for all families. Specifically, GDP growth was found to have a more pronounced effect on poverty during the expansionary periods of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Other findings include identification of determinants of the dynamic behavior of poverty rates both in the year- to-year periods and over the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The banking sector plays a crucial role in the economic growth of a nation. The purpose of this study is to examine the long-term association between banks' performance and the economic growth of a developing economy: India. The study used a panel of data of 20 public sector banks for the period 2009 to 2019. It applied the Pedroni and Kao test of co-integration, panel vector error correction model (VECM) dynamic, panel fully-modified ordinary least squires OLS (FMOLS), and dynamic OLS (DOLS) to estimate the relationship of interest margin return on assets, bank investment, and lending capacity of the bank with gross domestic product (GDP) of the country. The identification and incorporation of these bank-related variables are the innovations of this study. The results indicate that the bank-related variables are co-integrated with economic growth. Further analysis indicates a significant relationship between interest margin and return on assets with economic growth. In addition, lending capacity and investment activities are not significantly associated with economic growth, leading to the policy recommendation to improve upon these two factors in order to achieve higher growth rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the potential impact of promoting non-fossil fuel energy on India's economic growth in a regime based non-linear asymmetric framework. The empirical outcomes affirm regime-shift and asymmetric cointegrating links of the non-fossil fuel energy usage represented by combustible renewables & waste (CREW) and alternative & nuclear energy (ANEN) with the gross domestic product (GDP). The study establishes the existence of threshold cointegration between CREW and GDP. The causal links between CREW and GDP are regime variant and asymmetric, whereas the dynamics between ANEN and GDP are proven to be asymmetric and regime invariant. CREW and GDP supports a feedback hypothesis in a normal regime and a conservation hypothesis in a rare regime. The asymmetric causality between CREW and GDP validates an inverse feedback hypothesis and a negative growth hypothesis. A negative growth hypothesis is also ascertained between ANEN and GDP. The empirical findings convey meaningful insights for government and policymakers. • Examines the link between non-fossil fuel energy and economic activity in India. • Regime shifts, threshold and asymmetric cointegration found. • Feedback hypothesis in a normal regime is demonstrated in long run. • Positive change in combustible renewables & waste causes economic growth adversely. • Negative changes in alternative & nuclear energy drives positive economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]