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Your search keyword '"Jiang, Tong"' showing total 2 results
2 results on '"Jiang, Tong"'

1. Comparison and correction of high-mountain precipitation data based on glacio-hydrological modeling in the Tarim River headwaters (High Asia)

Author

Valentina Krysanova, Michel Wortmann, Jiang Tong, Tobias Bolch, Christoph Menz, University of Zurich, and Wortmann, Michel

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Impact assessment, business.industry, Hydrological modelling, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Climate change, Water supply, Glacier, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, 10122 Institute of Geography, 1902 Atmospheric Science, Environmental science, Climate model, Precipitation, Physical geography, 910 Geography & travel, business, China, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Mountain precipitation is often strongly underestimated as observations are scarce, biased toward lower-lying locations and prone to wind-induced undercatch, while topographical heterogeneity is large. This presents serious challenges to hydrological modeling for water resource management and climate change impact assessments in mountainous regions of the world, where a large population depends on water supply from the mountains. The headwaters of the Tarim River, covering four remote and highly glacierized Asian mountain ranges, are vital water suppliers to large agricultural communities along the Taklamakan Desert, northwest China. Assessments of future changes to these water towers have been hampered because of the large precipitation uncertainties. In this study, six existing precipitation datasets (observation-based reanalysis datasets, satellite observation datasets, and the output of high-resolution regional climate models) were compared over five headwaters of the Tarim River. The dataset incorporating the highest observation density (APHRODITE) is then corrected by calibrating the glacio-hydrological model Soil and Water Integrated Model–Glacier Dynamics (SWIM-G) to observed discharge, glacier hypsometry, and modeled glacier mass balance. Results show that this form of inverse modeling is able to inform the precipitation correction in such data-scarce conditions. Substantial disagreement of annual mean precipitation between the analyzed datasets, with coefficients of variation in catchment mean precipitation of 68% on average, was found. The model-based precipitation estimates are on average 1.5–4.3 times higher than the APHRODITE data, but fall between satellite-based and regional climate model results.

Published
2018

2. Insight from CMIP6 SSP-RCP scenarios for future drought characteristics in China.

Author

Su, Buda, Huang, Jinlong, Mondal, Sanjit Kumar, Zhai, Jianqing, Wang, Yanjun, Wen, Shanshan, Gao, Miaoni, Lv, Yanran, Jiang, Shan, Jiang, Tong, and Li, Aiwei

Subjects
*DROUGHT management, *DROUGHTS, *ATMOSPHERIC models, *WATERSHEDS, *CLIMATE change, *INSIGHT
Abstract

In this paper, future drought characteristics (frequency, duration and intensity) over China are analysed by using four climate models from CMIP6 under the seven SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, SSP370, and SSP585) for three defined periods of 2021–2040 (near-term), 2041–2060 (mid-term) and 2081–2100 (long-term). The corresponding four climate models output from CMIP5 are also used to conduct a comparison analysis between CMIP5 and CMIP6 to address the improvements added to CMIP6 in terms of drought identification. The drought characteristics are identified by applying the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 12-month timescale and run theory. The results show that CMIP6 has a robust capability to capture historical (1986–2005) drought characteristics. For the future period of 2021–2040, the decrease in precipitation and increase in potential evapotranspiration will lead to continuous dry conditions in the upper and middle Yangtze River basin and eastern Pearl River basin. Relative to the reference period, drought events will be more frequent and severe with longer durations in the Northwest River basins and middle Yangtze River basin. Furthermore, higher emissions signify a greater increase in drought frequency and intensity in the long-term period. Except for the SSP585 scenario, the lower emission scenario corresponds to the higher drought duration soon and in the mid-21st century (2021–2060). This finding is regarded as a "strange phenomenon", which cannot be detected by the previous CMIP5-based emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and the unlikely pathway RCP8.5). Therefore, additional "possible future"-based scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, and SSP370) should be included in extreme climate studies, especially for the near future and mid-21st century. Notably, compared with CMIP5, the reduced biases in drought characteristics are more likely associated with improvements in the representation of physical processes in climate models from CMIP6. The results of this study could provide a basis for the development of drought adaptation measures over China. • Latest CMIP6 climate models and seven SSP-RCP scenarios are used to analyze the possible changes in droughts over China. • More robust projections will be presented by CMIP6 than CMIP5, due to the better representations in physical processes. • The higher emission signifies shorter drought duration, lower precipitation and PET in mid-21st century over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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