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Much of the change in individual earnings has occurred at the top. This paper provides new evidence about the earnings distribution in the UK. The evidence is new in that it provides detail about what has happened within the top 10%, covering groups such as the top 1% and the top 0.5%. The aim is to set the recent rise in top earnings in historical perspective, and to make international comparisons. The evidence is new in that it covers the whole of the postwar period, allowing a contrast to be drawn with the 'golden age' of the 1950s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to investigate appropriate methods of modelling the business cycle theory of trade union growth, and to develop and estimate a specification of the business cycle model. In so doing, the paper draws on the important pioneering work of Bain and Elsheikh (1976) for the United Kingdom. (The results of extension of the Bain and Elsheikh model to 1980 are shown in Appendix A.). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of competition in British productivity performance over the period from the late-nineteenth to the early twenty-first century. A detailed review of the evidence suggests that the weakness of competition from the 1930s to the 1970s undermined productivity growth but since the 1970s stronger competition has been a key ingredient in ending relative economic decline. The productivity implications of the retreat from competition resulted in large part from interactions with idiosyncratic British institutional structures in terms of corporate governance and industrial relations. This account extends familiar insights from cliometrics both analytically and chronologically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alternative measures of the UK output gap are considered for 1984-2007. The real-time series is strongly affected by the rolling-time estimation of the trend, and produces a picture of the business cycle which is not consistent with contemporary perceptions of the large fluctuations of the late 1980s and early 1990s. A new, 'nearly-real', measure developed here may be better for estimating historical reaction functions. In the context of the current recession, none of these mechanically derived measures of the output gap are useful. Policymakers should make careful estimates of the likely fall in potential output on the basis of other information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long relative decline of Great Britain's industrial economy has produced a voluminous literature, both polemical and academic, seeking to illuminate its causes. Recent contributions have stressed the deleterious effects of inappropriate and inconsistent government policies, in particular the deadweight of an inefficient public sector, and the contempt for industrial production on the part of a Treasury-dominated civil service elite obsessed with macroeconomic issues. They have also cited the anti-modernization ethos of the post-1945 political consensus. In a longer term perspective great stress has also been laid on the socio-cultural environment antipathetic to the industrial spirit, which, supposedly, had animated the business and investing classes in the pre-1850 phases of industrialization. The purpose of this paper is to examine the validity of the new institutional approach as an explanation of Great Britain's relative economic decline in the twentieth century. The discussion will focus on economists B. Elbaum and W. Lazonick thesis as a reference point for assessing alternative formulations of institutional rigidities.

Firms in the construction industry have always had to deal with the challenges of the economic cycle and develop strategies to deal with the resulting fluctuations in their business environment. In the context of the 2008–2011 double-dip recession in the UK, the results of a survey targeting the top one hundred construction companies in the UK are reported here. This research is particularly intended to assess whether the strategies of large companies in the construction sector, when faced with the issues associated with the variation in the economic cycle, have changed since the previous business cycle (i.e. the 1986–1990 boom followed by the 1990–1991 recession). The survey reveals the challenges that companies have faced, reports on company behaviour and on the policies adopted. While there are many similarities between policies adopted during the recessionary periods of the two cycles, the research found notable changes in attitudes towards diversification, human resource management and price bidding. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

An overview is provided of the issues raised in the recent literature on the use of reaI-time data in the context of nowcasting and forecasting UK macroeconomic events. The ideas are illustrated through two specific applications using UK real-time data available over 1961-2006 and providing probability forecasts that could have been produced in real time over the past twenty years. In the first, we consider the reliability of first-release data on the components of UK aggregate demand by looking at forecasts of the probabiIity of substantial data revisions. In the second, we consider the estimation of the output gap, illustrating the uncertainty surrounding its measurement through density forecasts and focusing on its interpretation in terms of inflationary pressure through an event probability forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]