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Much of the research on implications of the HIV epidemic for individual households and broader rural economies in the 1980s and early 1990s predicted progressive declines in agricultural production, with dire consequences for rural livelihoods. Restudies in Tanzania and Uganda show that from 1986 to the present, HIV and AIDS have sometimes thrown households into disarray and poverty, but more often have reduced development. The progressive and systematic decline predicted in earlier work has not come to pass. However, poverty remains, as does endemic HIV disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the study which examines the impact of adult mortality shock on both the short- and long-run consumption growth of surviving household members. The study focuses on the Kagera Region in the North-West of Tanzania, an area that has been deeply affected by HIV/AIDS. The researchers conclude that adult mortality shocks, especially of females, have a large impact on the growth in consumption of surviving household members. However, the researchers suggest that further assessment on how households may have been able to cope in the long run is needed.

The article cites a study that examines the impact of orphanhood on children's school attainment and height in Tanzania. The data set being used will allow estimation of the long-term and persistent impact of orphanhood shocks during childhood on adult health and educational attainment. Height is used as the key long-term health measure, since it has been shown to affect wage-earning capacity as well as participation in the labor force for men and women. Several factors of influence are used to model height and education such as the child characteristics, family's genetic background and the socioeconomic environment in the household at baseline.

This article presents unique evidence that orphanhood matters in the long run for health and education outcomes in a region of northwestern Tanzania. We study a sample of 718 non-orphaned children surveyed in 1991-1994 who were traced and reinterviewed as adults in 2004. A large proportion, 19%, lost one or more parents before age 15 in this period, allowing us to assess permanent health and education impacts of orphanhood. In the analysis, we control for a wide range of child and adult characteristics before orphanhood, as well as community fixed effects. We find that maternal orphanhood has a permanent adverse impact of 2 cm of final height attainment and one year of educational attainment. Expressing welfare in terms of consumption expenditure, the result is a gap of 8.5% compared with similar children whose mothers survived until at least their 15th birthday.

Background: In sub-Saharan Africa, the prevalence of orphanhood among children has been greatly exacerbated by the HIV/AIDS pandemic. If orphanhood harms a child's development and these effects perpetuate into adult life, then the African orphan crisis could seriously jeopardize the continent's future generations. Whether or not there exists an adverse, causal and intergenerational effect of HIV/AIDS on development is of crucial importance for setting medical priorities. This study is the first to empirically investigate the impact of orphanhood on health and schooling using long-term longitudinal data following children into adulthood., Methods: We examined a cohort of 718 children interviewed in the early 1990s and again in 2004. Detailed survey questionnaires and anthropometric measurements were administered at baseline and during a follow-up survey. Final attained height and education (at adulthood) between children who lost a parent before the age of 15 and those who did not were compared., Results: On average, children who lose their mother before the age of 15 suffer a deficit of around 2 cm in final attained height (mean 1.96; 95% CI 0.06-3.77) and 1 year of final attained schooling (mean 1.01; 95% CI 0.39-1.81). This effect is permanent and the hypothesis that it is causal cannot be rejected by our study. Although father's death is a predictor of lower height and schooling as well, we reject the hypothesis of a causal link., Conclusions: The African orphan crisis, exacerbated by the HIV/AIDS epidemic will have important negative intergenerational effects.