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Aim Species richness depends on climate and land use. Maintaining locations with favourable climate and land-use patterns is critical for protecting biodiversity because the loss of either can reduce the species richness that an area supports. Currently, the Guiana Shield (GS) receives abundant precipitation and has relatively light land use. For species richness this constitutes a good–good combination of climate and land use, respectively. In contrast, much of eastern Brazil receives low levels of precipitation and has heavy land use, which is a bad–bad combination for species richness. Thus, the current distribution of precipitation and land use in northern South America is relatively favourable for biodiversity. Palaeoclimate and model studies suggest, however, that the precipitation patterns for the two regions have switched before and could switch in response to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper examines the potential consequences of reconfiguring climate with respect to existing land-use patterns using South America as an example. Location South America north of 20° S and east of the Andes. Methods Ecosystem structure and function are modelled under (1) historical climate and (2) altered precipitation following a shift in the location of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The distribution of precipitation, biomes, net primary productivity (NPP) and land use are then used to predict levels of species richness under the two climate scenarios. Results Climate changes could shift the distribution of vegetation and NPP such that conditions favourable for species richness in the GS region disappear. If land-use patterns were not prohibitive in eastern Brazil, the improved climate conditions there could compensate for the GS loss (assuming migratory barriers are overcome). Instead, existing land-use patterns cause the combined species richness projected for the two regions to plummet. Main conclusions Human activities will alter current configurations of land use and climate throughout the world. For species richness, new configurations are likely to include both positive and negative combinations of climate and land use. However, the irreversibility of past extinctions due to land-use patterns loads the dice against species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies found a long-term drought and resulting declines in vegetation greenness and canopy water content over the Congo Basin, the second largest rainforest in the world after the Amazon. Since most precipitation in tropical latitudes stems from convection, this paper analyzed 35 years of high-resolution (8 km spatial resolution and 3 h temporal resolution) satellite data to document the long-term trends in the number, size and intensity of thunderstorms activity over the Congo Basin during April, May, and June (AMJ) for the period 1982–2016. Changes in the magnitude and area of cold cloud top brightness temperatures ( T b ) at different thresholds were used as a proxy to quantify the number and size of individual thunderstorms at different intensities. We found that the areal extent and intensity of thunderstorms increased over the past 35 years, particularly over Northern Congo Basin, and these changes are consistent with other satellite datasets. Combined with a reanalysis dataset, our work suggests that thunderstorms over the Congo Basin are becoming taller and wider, and likely resulting in a moister (drier) upper (lower) troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]