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In a stratified analysis, the results from different strata if homogeneity assumption is met are pooled together to obtain a single summary estimate for the common effect parameter. However, the effect can appear homogeneous across strata using one measure but heterogeneous using another. Consequently, two researchers analyzing the same data can arrive at conflicting conclusions if they use different effect measures. In this paper, the author draws on the sufficient component cause model to develop a stratified-analysis method regarding a particular effect measure, the ‘peril ratio’. When there is no mechanistic interaction between the exposure under study and the stratifying variable (i.e., when they do not work together to complete any sufficient cause), the peril ratio is constant across strata. The author presents formulas for the estimation of such a common peril ratio. Three real data are re-analyzed for illustration. When the data is consistent with peril-ratio homogeneity in a stratified analysis, researchers can use the formulas in this paper to pool the strata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The confirmatory diagnosis of Osteogenesis Imperfecta (OI) requires invasive, commonly bone biopsy, time consuming and destructive methods. This paper proposes an alternative method using a combination of two-photon excitation fluorescence (TPEF) and second-harmonic generation (SHG) microscopies from easily obtained human skin biopsies. We show that this method can distinguish subtypes of human OI. Methodology/Principal Findings: Different aspects of collagen microstructure of skin fresh biopsies and standard H&E-stained sections of normal and OI patients (mild and severe forms) were distinguished by TPEF and SHG images. Moreover, important differences between subtypes of OI were identified using different methods of quantification such as collagen density, ratio between collagen and elastic tissue, and gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) image-pattern analysis. Collagen density was lower in OI dermis, while the SHG/autofluorescence index of the dermis was significantly higher in OI as compared to that of the normal skin. We also showed that the energy value of GLCM texture analysis is useful to discriminate mild from severe OI and from normal skin. Conclusions/Significance: This work demonstrated that nonlinear microscopy techniques in combination with image-analysis approaches represent a powerful tool to investigate the collagen organization in skin dermis in patients with OI and has the potential to distinguish the different types of OI. The procedure outlined in this paper requires a skin biopsy, which is almost painless as compared to the bone biopsy commonly used in conventional methods. The data presented here complement existing clinical diagnostic techniques and can be used as a diagnostic procedure to confirm the disease, evaluate its severity and treatment efficacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In second language acquisition research, the critical period hypothesis (cph) holds that the function between learners' age and their susceptibility to second language input is non-linear. This paper revisits the indistinctness found in the literature with regard to this hypothesis's scope and predictions. Even when its scope is clearly delineated and its predictions are spelt out, however, empirical studies–with few exceptions–use analytical (statistical) tools that are irrelevant with respect to the predictions made. This paper discusses statistical fallacies common in cph research and illustrates an alternative analytical method (piecewise regression) by means of a reanalysis of two datasets from a 2010 paper purporting to have found cross-linguistic evidence in favour of the cph. This reanalysis reveals that the specific age patterns predicted by the cph are not cross-linguistically robust. Applying the principle of parsimony, it is concluded that age patterns in second language acquisition are not governed by a critical period. To conclude, this paper highlights the role of confirmation bias in the scientific enterprise and appeals to second language acquisition researchers to reanalyse their old datasets using the methods discussed in this paper. The data and R commands that were used for the reanalysis are provided as supplementary materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a performance measure for a prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is insensitive to the addition of strong markers. A number of measures sensitive to performance change have recently been proposed; however, these relative-performance measures may lead to self-contradictory conclusions. This paper examines alternative performance measures for prediction models: the Lorenz curve-based Gini and Pietra indices, and a standardized version of the Brier score, the scaled Brier. Computer simulations are performed in order to study the sensitivity of these measures to performance change when a new marker is added to a baseline model. When the discrimination power of the added marker is concentrated in the gray zone of the baseline model, the AUC and the Gini show minimal performance improvements. The Pietra and the scaled Brier show more significant improvements in the same situation, comparatively. The Pietra and the scaled Brier indices are therefore recommended for prediction model performance measurement, in light of their ease of interpretation, clinical relevance and sensitivity to gray-zone resolving markers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is a thriving field that plays an important role in medical imaging analysis, biological and neuroscience research and practice. This manuscript gives a didactic introduction to the statistical analysis of fMRI data using the R project, along with the relevant R code. The goal is to give statisticians who would like to pursue research in this area a quick tutorial for programming with fMRI data. References of relevant packages and papers are provided for those interested in more advanced analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the business context, concern for the environment began to develop when pressure from the public administration and environmental awareness groups raised the specific requirements for companies. The Theory of Planned Behavior considers that people's conduct is determined by the intention of carrying out a certain behavior. Thus, the individual's intent is determined by three factors related to the desired outcome of the behavior: the Personal Attitude toward the Results, the Perceived Social Norms, and the Perceived Behavioral Control over the action. Therefore, the objectives of this paper are to clarify the attitudes of the managers of Canarian small and medium-sized companies about taking environmental measures, and try to demonstrate whether there is a relationship between the proposed factors and the intention to take these measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponential smoothing), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The data obtained from 2005 to 2011 and in 2012 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The accuracy of the statistical models in forecasting future epidemic disease proved their effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. Although the comparisons found that no single method is completely superior to the others, the present study indeed highlighted that the SVMs outperforms the ARIMA model and decomposition methods in most cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disease module is a group of molecular components that interact intensively in the disease specific biological network. Since the connectivity and activity of disease modules may shed light on the molecular mechanisms of pathogenesis and disease progression, their identification becomes one of the most important challenges in network medicine, an emerging paradigm to study complex human disease. This paper proposes a novel algorithm, DiME (Disease Module Extraction), to identify putative disease modules from biological networks. We have developed novel heuristics to optimise Community Extraction, a module criterion originally proposed for social network analysis, to extract topological core modules from biological networks as putative disease modules. In addition, we have incorporated a statistical significance measure, B-score, to evaluate the quality of extracted modules. As an application to complex diseases, we have employed DiME to investigate the molecular mechanisms that underpin the progression of glioma, the most common type of brain tumour. We have built low (grade II) - and high (GBM) - grade glioma co-expression networks from three independent datasets and then applied DiME to extract potential disease modules from both networks for comparison. Examination of the interconnectivity of the identified modules have revealed changes in topology and module activity (expression) between low- and high- grade tumours, which are characteristic of the major shifts in the constitution and physiology of tumour cells during glioma progression. Our results suggest that transcription factors E2F4, AR and ETS1 are potential key regulators in tumour progression. Our DiME compiled software, R/C++ source code, sample data and a tutorial are available at http://www.cs.bham.ac.uk/~szh/DiME. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing evidence has indicated that long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are implicated in and associated with many complex human diseases. Despite of the accumulation of lncRNA-disease associations, only a few studies had studied the roles of these associations in pathogenesis. In this paper, we investigated lncRNA-disease associations from a network view to understand the contribution of these lncRNAs to complex diseases. Specifically, we studied both the properties of the diseases in which the lncRNAs were implicated, and that of the lncRNAs associated with complex diseases. Regarding the fact that protein coding genes and lncRNAs are involved in human diseases, we constructed a coding-non-coding gene-disease bipartite network based on known associations between diseases and disease-causing genes. We then applied a propagation algorithm to uncover the hidden lncRNA-disease associations in this network. The algorithm was evaluated by leave-one-out cross validation on 103 diseases in which at least two genes were known to be involved, and achieved an AUC of 0.7881. Our algorithm successfully predicted 768 potential lncRNA-disease associations between 66 lncRNAs and 193 diseases. Furthermore, our results for Alzheimer's disease, pancreatic cancer, and gastric cancer were verified by other independent studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of the incubation period of infectious diseases (time between host infection and expression of disease symptoms) is crucial to our epidemiological understanding and the design of appropriate prevention and control policies. Plant diseases cause substantial damage to agricultural and arboricultural systems, but there is still very little information about how the incubation period varies within host populations. In this paper, we focus on the incubation period of soilborne plant pathogens, which are difficult to detect as they spread and infect the hosts underground and above-ground symptoms occur considerably later. We conducted experiments on Rhizoctonia solani in sugar beet, as an example patho-system, and used modelling approaches to estimate the incubation period distribution and demonstrate the impact of differing estimations on our epidemiological understanding of plant diseases. We present measurements of the incubation period obtained in field conditions, fit alternative probability models to the data, and show that the incubation period distribution changes with host age. By simulating spatially-explicit epidemiological models with different incubation-period distributions, we study the conditions for a significant time lag between epidemics of cryptic infection and the associated epidemics of symptomatic disease. We examine the sensitivity of this lag to differing distributional assumptions about the incubation period (i.e. exponential versus Gamma). We demonstrate that accurate information about the incubation period distribution of a pathosystem can be critical in assessing the true scale of pathogen invasion behind early disease symptoms in the field; likewise, it can be central to model-based prediction of epidemic risk and evaluation of disease management strategies. Our results highlight that reliance on observation of disease symptoms can cause significant delay in detection of soil-borne pathogen epidemics and mislead practitioners and epidemiologists about the timing, extent, and viability of disease control measures for limiting economic loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

No matching vaccine is immediately available when a novel influenza strain breaks out. Several nonvaccine-related strategies must be employed to control an influenza epidemic, including antiviral treatment, patient isolation, and immigration detection. This paper presents the development and application of two regional dynamic models of influenza with Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle to determine the optimal control strategies for an epidemic and the corresponding minimum antiviral stockpiles. Antiviral treatment was found to be the most effective measure to control new influenza outbreaks. In the case of inadequate antiviral resources, the preferred approach was the centralized use of antiviral resources in the early stage of the epidemic. Immigration detection was the least cost-effective; however, when used in combination with the other measures, it may play a larger role. The reasonable mix of the three control measures could reduce the number of clinical cases substantially, to achieve the optimal control of new influenza. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obesity is an important and intractable public health problem. In addition to the well-known risk factors of behavior, diet, and genetics, gut microbial communities were recently identified as another possible source of risk and a potential therapeutic target. However, human and animal-model studies have yielded conflicting results about the precise nature of associations between microbiome composition and obesity. In this paper, we use publicly available data from the Human Microbiome Project (HMP) and MetaHIT, both surveys of healthy adults that include obese individuals, plus two smaller studies that specifically examined lean versus obese adults. We find that inter-study variability in the taxonomic composition of stool microbiomes far exceeds differences between lean and obese individuals within studies. Our analyses further reveal a high degree of variability in stool microbiome composition and diversity across individuals. While we confirm the previously published small, but statistically significant, differences in phylum-level taxonomic composition between lean and obese individuals in several cohorts, we find no association between BMI and taxonomic composition of stool microbiomes in the larger HMP and MetaHIT datasets. We explore a range of different statistical techniques and show that this result is robust to the choice of methodology. Differences between studies are likely due to a combination of technical and clinical factors. We conclude that there is no simple taxonomic signature of obesity in the microbiota of the human gut. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sudden cardiac death is often caused by cardiac arrhythmias. Recently, special attention has been given to a certain arrhythmogenic condition, the long-QT syndrome, which occurs as a result of genetic mutations or drug toxicity. The underlying mechanisms of arrhythmias, caused by the long-QT syndrome, are not fully understood. However, arrhythmias are often connected to special excitations of cardiac cells, called early afterdepolarizations (EADs), which are depolarizations during the repolarizing phase of the action potential. So far, EADs have been studied mainly in isolated cardiac cells. However, the question on how EADs at the single-cell level can result in fibrillation at the tissue level, especially in human cell models, has not been widely studied yet. In this paper, we study wave patterns that result from single-cell EAD dynamics in a mathematical model for human ventricular cardiac tissue. We induce EADs by modeling experimental conditions which have been shown to evoke EADs at a single-cell level: by an increase of L-type Ca currents and a decrease of the delayed rectifier potassium currents. We show that, at the tissue level and depending on these parameters, three types of abnormal wave patterns emerge. We classify them into two types of spiral fibrillation and one type of oscillatory dynamics. Moreover, we find that the emergent wave patterns can be driven by calcium or sodium currents and we find phase waves in the oscillatory excitation regime. From our simulations we predict that arrhythmias caused by EADs can occur during normal wave propagation and do not require tissue heterogeneities. Experimental verification of our results is possible for experiments at the cell-culture level, where EADs can be induced by an increase of the L-type calcium conductance and by the application of I blockers, and the properties of the emergent patterns can be studied by optical mapping of the voltage and calcium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of how a population of cancerous cells progress through the cell cycle is vital if the population is to be treated effectively, as treatment outcome is dependent on the phase distributions of the population. Estimates on the phase distribution may be obtained experimentally however the errors present in these estimates may effect treatment efficacy and planning. If mathematical models are to be used to make accurate, quantitative predictions concerning treatments, whose efficacy is phase dependent, knowledge of the phase distribution is crucial. In this paper it is shown that two different transition rates at the - checkpoint provide a good fit to a growth curve obtained experimentally. However, the different transition functions predict a different phase distribution for the population, but both lying within the bounds of experimental error. Since treatment outcome is effected by the phase distribution of the population this difference may be critical in treatment planning. Using an age-structured population balance approach the cell cycle is modelled with particular emphasis on the - checkpoint. By considering the probability of cells transitioning at the - checkpoint, different transition functions are obtained. A suitable finite difference scheme for the numerical simulation of the model is derived and shown to be stable. The model is then fitted using the different probability transition functions to experimental data and the effects of the different probability transition functions on the model's results are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With great potential for assisting radiological image interpretation and decision making, content-based image retrieval in the medical domain has become a hot topic in recent years. Many methods to enhance the performance of content-based medical image retrieval have been proposed, among which the relevance feedback (RF) scheme is one of the most promising. Given user feedback information, RF algorithms interactively learn a user’s preferences to bridge the “semantic gap” between low-level computerized visual features and high-level human semantic perception and thus improve retrieval performance. However, most existing RF algorithms perform in the original high-dimensional feature space and ignore the manifold structure of the low-level visual features of images. In this paper, we propose a new method, termed dual-force ISOMAP (DFISOMAP), for content-based medical image retrieval. Under the assumption that medical images lie on a low-dimensional manifold embedded in a high-dimensional ambient space, DFISOMAP operates in the following three stages. First, the geometric structure of positive examples in the learned low-dimensional embedding is preserved according to the isometric feature mapping (ISOMAP) criterion. To precisely model the geometric structure, a reconstruction error constraint is also added. Second, the average distance between positive and negative examples is maximized to separate them; this margin maximization acts as a force that pushes negative examples far away from positive examples. Finally, the similarity propagation technique is utilized to provide negative examples with another force that will pull them back into the negative sample set. We evaluate the proposed method on a subset of the IRMA medical image dataset with a RF-based medical image retrieval framework. Experimental results show that DFISOMAP outperforms popular approaches for content-based medical image retrieval in terms of accuracy and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In genetic association studies, tests for Hardy-Weinberg proportions are often employed as a quality control checking procedure. Missing genotypes are typically discarded prior to testing. In this paper we show that inference for Hardy-Weinberg proportions can be biased when missing values are discarded. We propose to use multiple imputation of missing values in order to improve inference for Hardy-Weinberg proportions. For imputation we employ a multinomial logit model that uses information from allele intensities and/or neighbouring markers. Analysis of an empirical data set of single nucleotide polymorphisms possibly related to colon cancer reveals that missing genotypes are not missing completely at random. Deviation from Hardy-Weinberg proportions is mostly due to a lack of heterozygotes. Inbreeding coefficients estimated by multiple imputation of the missings are typically lowered with respect to inbreeding coefficients estimated by discarding the missings. Accounting for missings by multiple imputation qualitatively changed the results of 10 to 17% of the statistical tests performed. Estimates of inbreeding coefficients obtained by multiple imputation showed high correlation with estimates obtained by single imputation using an external reference panel. Our conclusion is that imputation of missing data leads to improved statistical inference for Hardy-Weinberg proportions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The clinical serial interval of an infectious disease is the time between date of symptom onset in an index case and the date of symptom onset in one of its secondary cases. It is a quantity which is commonly collected during a pandemic and is of fundamental importance to public health policy and mathematical modelling. In this paper we present a novel method for calculating the serial interval distribution for a Markovian model of household transmission dynamics. This allows the use of Bayesian MCMC methods, with explicit evaluation of the likelihood, to fit to serial interval data and infer parameters of the underlying model. We use simulated and real data to verify the accuracy of our methodology and illustrate the importance of accounting for household size. The output of our approach can be used to produce posterior distributions of population level epidemic characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graph theoretical approaches have successfully revealed abnormality in brain connectivity, in particular, for contrasting patients from healthy controls. Besides the group comparison analysis, a correlational study is also challenging. In studies with patients, for example, finding brain connections that indeed deepen specific symptoms is interesting. The correlational study is also beneficial since it does not require controls, which are often difficult to find, especially for old-age patients with cognitive impairment where controls could also have cognitive deficits due to normal ageing. However, one of the major difficulties in such correlational studies is too conservative multiple comparison correction. In this paper, we propose a novel method for identifying brain connections that are correlated with a specific cognitive behavior by employing cluster-based statistics, which is less conservative than other methods, such as Bonferroni correction, false discovery rate procedure, and extreme statistics. Our method is based on the insight that multiple brain connections, rather than a single connection, are responsible for abnormal behaviors. Given brain connectivity data, we first compute a partial correlation coefficient between every edge and the behavioral measure. Then we group together neighboring connections with strong correlation into clusters and calculate their maximum sizes. This procedure is repeated for randomly permuted assignments of behavioral measures. Significance levels of the identified sub-networks are estimated from the null distribution of the cluster sizes. This method is independent of network construction methods: either structural or functional network can be used in association with any behavioral measures. We further demonstrated the efficacy of our method using patients with subcortical vascular cognitive impairment. We identified sub-networks that are correlated with the disease severity by exploiting diffusion tensor imaging techniques. The identified sub-networks were consistent with the previous clinical findings having valid significance level, while other methods did not assert any significant findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we introduce a new method to expressly use live/corporeal data in quantifying differences of time series data with an underlying limit cycle attractor; and apply it using an example of gait data. Our intention is to identify gait pattern differences between diverse situations and classify them on group and individual subject levels. First we approximated the limit cycle attractors, from which three measures were calculated: δM amounts to the difference between two attractors (a measure for the differences of two movements), δD computes the difference between the two associated deviations of the state vector away from the attractor (a measure for the change in movement variation), and δF, a combination of the previous two, is an index of the change. As an application we quantified these measures for walking on a treadmill under three different conditions: normal walking, dual task walking, and walking with additional weights at the ankle. The new method was able to successfully differentiate between the three walking conditions. Day to day repeatability, studied with repeated trials approximately one week apart, indicated excellent reliability for δM (ICCave > 0.73 with no differences across days; p > 0.05) and good reliability for δD (ICCave  =  0.414 to 0.610 with no differences across days; p > 0.05). Based on the ability to detect differences in varying gait conditions and the good repeatability of the measures across days, the new method is recommended as an alternative to expensive and time consuming techniques of gait classification assessment. In particular, the new method is an easy to use diagnostic tool to quantify clinical changes in neurological patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advances in next-generation sequencing technologies have enabled the identification of multiple rare single nucleotide polymorphisms involved in diseases or traits. Several strategies for identifying rare variants that contribute to disease susceptibility have recently been proposed. An important feature of many of these statistical methods is the pooling or collapsing of multiple rare single nucleotide variants to achieve a reasonably high frequency and effect. However, if the pooled rare variants are associated with the trait in different directions, then the pooling may weaken the signal, thereby reducing its statistical power. In the present paper, we propose a backward support vector machine (BSVM)-based variant selection procedure to identify informative disease-associated rare variants. In the selection procedure, the rare variants are weighted and collapsed according to their positive or negative associations with the disease, which may be associated with common variants and rare variants with protective, deleterious, or neutral effects. This nonparametric variant selection procedure is able to account for confounding factors and can also be adopted in other regression frameworks. The results of a simulation study and a data example show that the proposed BSVM approach is more powerful than four other approaches under the considered scenarios, while maintaining valid type I errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the recently introduced edge-based compartmental models (EBCM) for the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) diseases in networks. These models differ from standard infectious disease models by focusing on the status of a random partner in the population, rather than a random individual. This change in focus leads to simple analytic models for the spread of SIR diseases in random networks with heterogeneous degree. In this paper we extend this approach to handle deviations of the disease or population from the simplistic assumptions of earlier work. We allow the population to have structure due to effects such as demographic features or multiple types of risk behavior. We allow the disease to have more complicated natural history. Although we introduce these modifications in the static network context, it is straightforward to incorporate them into dynamic network models. We also consider serosorting, which requires using dynamic network models. The basic methods we use to derive these generalizations are widely applicable, and so it is straightforward to introduce many other generalizations not considered here. Our goal is twofold: to provide a number of examples generalizing the EBCM method for various different population or disease structures and to provide insight into how to derive such a model under new sets of assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the USA, the relationship between the legal availability of guns and the firearm-related homicide rate has been debated. It has been argued that unrestricted gun availability promotes the occurrence of firearm-induced homicides. It has also been pointed out that gun possession can protect potential victims when attacked. This paper provides a first mathematical analysis of this tradeoff, with the goal to steer the debate towards arguing about assumptions, statistics, and scientific methods. The model is based on a set of clearly defined assumptions, which are supported by available statistical data, and is formulated axiomatically such that results do not depend on arbitrary mathematical expressions. According to this framework, two alternative scenarios can minimize the gun-related homicide rate: a ban of private firearms possession, or a policy allowing the general population to carry guns. Importantly, the model identifies the crucial parameters that determine which policy minimizes the death rate, and thus serves as a guide for the design of future epidemiological studies. The parameters that need to be measured include the fraction of offenders that illegally possess a gun, the degree of protection provided by gun ownership, and the fraction of the population who take up their right to own a gun and carry it when attacked. Limited data available in the literature were used to demonstrate how the model can be parameterized, and this preliminary analysis suggests that a ban of private firearm possession, or possibly a partial reduction in gun availability, might lower the rate of firearm-induced homicides. This, however, should not be seen as a policy recommendation, due to the limited data available to inform and parameterize the model. However, the model clearly defines what needs to be measured, and provides a basis for a scientific discussion about assumptions and data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antigenic characterization based on serological data, such as Hemagglutination Inhibition (HI) assay, is one of the routine procedures for influenza vaccine strain selection. In many cases, it would be impossible to measure all pairwise antigenic correlations between testing antigens and reference antisera in each individual experiment. Thus, we have to combine and integrate the HI tables from a number of individual experiments. Measurements from different experiments may be inconsistent due to different experimental conditions. Consequently we will observe a matrix with missing data and possibly inconsistent measurements. In this paper, we develop a new mathematical model, which we refer to as Joint Matrix Completion and Filtering, for HI data integration. In this approach, we simultaneously handle the incompleteness and uncertainty of observations by assuming that the underlying merged HI data matrix has low rank, as well as carefully modeling different levels of noises in each individual table. An efficient blockwise coordinate descent procedure is developed for optimization. The performance of our approach is validated on synthetic and real influenza datasets. The proposed joint matrix completion and filtering model can be adapted as a general model for biological data integration, targeting data noises and missing values within and across experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major barrier for a broad applicability of brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) based on electroencephalography (EEG) is the large number of EEG sensor electrodes typically used. The necessity for this results from the fact that the relevant information for the BCI is often spread over the scalp in complex patterns that differ depending on subjects and application scenarios. Recently, a number of methods have been proposed to determine an individual optimal sensor selection. These methods have, however, rarely been compared against each other or against any type of baseline. In this paper, we review several selection approaches and propose one additional selection criterion based on the evaluation of the performance of a BCI system using a reduced set of sensors. We evaluate the methods in the context of a passive BCI system that is designed to detect a P300 event-related potential and compare the performance of the methods against randomly generated sensor constellations. For a realistic estimation of the reduced system's performance we transfer sensor constellations found on one experimental session to a different session for evaluation. We identified notable (and unanticipated) differences among the methods and could demonstrate that the best method in our setup is able to reduce the required number of sensors considerably. Though our application focuses on EEG data, all presented algorithms and evaluation schemes can be transferred to any binary classification task on sensor arrays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we use a hybrid multiscale mathematical model that incorporates both individual cell behaviour through the cell-cycle and the effects of the changing microenvironment through oxygen dynamics to study the multiple effects of radiation therapy. The oxygenation status of the cells is considered as one of the important prognostic markers for determining radiation therapy, as hypoxic cells are less radiosensitive. Another factor that critically affects radiation sensitivity is cell-cycle regulation. The effects of radiation therapy are included in the model using a modified linear quadratic model for the radiation damage, incorporating the effects of hypoxia and cell-cycle in determining the cell-cycle phase-specific radiosensitivity. Furthermore, after irradiation, an individual cell's cell-cycle dynamics are intrinsically modified through the activation of pathways responsible for repair mechanisms, often resulting in a delay/arrest in the cell-cycle. The model is then used to study various combinations of multiple doses of cell-cycle dependent chemotherapies and radiation therapy, as radiation may work better by the partial synchronisation of cells in the most radiosensitive phase of the cell-cycle. Moreover, using this multi-scale model, we investigate the optimum sequencing and scheduling of these multi-modality treatments, and the impact of internal and external heterogeneity on the spatio-temporal patterning of the distribution of tumour cells and their response to different treatment schedules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives of this paper are to predict life years lost associated with obesity-related diseases (ORDs) for U.S. non-smoking adults, and to examine the relationship between those ORDs and mortality. Data from the National Health Interview Survey, 1997–2000, were used. We employed mixed proportional hazard models to estimate the association between those ORDs and mortality and used simulations to project life years lost associated with the ORDs. We found that obesity-attributable comorbidities are associated with large decreases in life years and increases in mortality rates. The life years lost associated with ORDs is more marked for younger adults than older adults, for blacks than whites, for males than females, and for the more obese than the less obese. Using U.S. non-smoking adults aged 40 to 49 years as an example to illustrate percentage of the life years lost associated with ORDs, we found that the mean life years lost associated with ORDs for U.S. non-smoking black males aged 40 to 49 years with a body mass index above 40 kg/m2 was 5.43 years, which translates to a 7.5% reduction in total life years. White males of the same age range and same degree of obesity lost 5.23 life years on average – a 6.8% reduction in total life years, followed by black females (5.04 years, a 6.5% reduction in life years), and white females (4.7 years, a 5.8% reduction in life years). Overall, ORDs increased chances of dying and lessened life years by 0.2 to 11.7 years depending on gender, race, BMI classification, and age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the multiple atlas random diffeomorphic orbit model in Computational Anatomy (CA) for parameter estimation and segmentation of subcortical and ventricular neuroanatomy in magnetic resonance imagery. We assume that there exist multiple magnetic resonance image (MRI) atlases, each atlas containing a collection of locally-defined charts in the brain generated via manual delineation of the structures of interest. We focus on maximum a posteriori estimation of high dimensional segmentations of MR within the class of generative models representing the observed MRI as a conditionally Gaussian random field, conditioned on the atlas charts and the diffeomorphic change of coordinates of each chart that generates it. The charts and their diffeomorphic correspondences are unknown and viewed as latent or hidden variables. We demonstrate that the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm arises naturally, yielding the likelihood-fusion equation which the a posteriori estimator of the segmentation labels maximizes. The likelihoods being fused are modeled as conditionally Gaussian random fields with mean fields a function of each atlas chart under its diffeomorphic change of coordinates onto the target. The conditional-mean in the EM algorithm specifies the convex weights with which the chart-specific likelihoods are fused. The multiple atlases with the associated convex weights imply that the posterior distribution is a multi-modal representation of the measured MRI. Segmentation results for subcortical and ventricular structures of subjects, within populations of demented subjects, are demonstrated, including the use of multiple atlases across multiple diseased groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several approaches have been proposed for near real-time detection and prediction of the spread of influenza. These include search query data for influenza-related terms, which has been explored as a tool for augmenting traditional surveillance methods. In this paper, we present a method that uses Internet search query data from Baidu to model and monitor influenza activity in China. The objectives of the study are to present a comprehensive technique for: (i) keyword selection, (ii) keyword filtering, (iii) index composition and (iv) modeling and detection of influenza activity in China. Sequential time-series for the selected composite keyword index is significantly correlated with Chinese influenza case data. In addition, one-month ahead prediction of influenza cases for the first eight months of 2012 has a mean absolute percent error less than 11%. To our knowledge, this is the first study on the use of search query data from Baidu in conjunction with this approach for estimation of influenza activity in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In microarray data analysis, we are often required to combine several dependent partial test results. To overcome this, many suggestions have been made in previous literature; Tippett’s test and Fisher’s omnibus test are most popular. Both tests have known null distributions when the partial tests are independent. However, for dependent tests, their (even, asymptotic) null distributions are unknown and additional numerical procedures are required. In this paper, we revisited Stouffer’s test based on z-scores and showed its advantage over the two aforementioned methods in the analysis of large-scale microarray data. The combined statistic in Stouffer’s test has a normal distribution with mean 0 from the normality of the z-scores. Its variance can be estimated from the scores of genes in the experiment without an additional numerical procedure. We numerically compared the errors of Stouffer’s test and the two p-value based methods, Tippett’s test and Fisher’s omnibus test. We also analyzed our microarray data to find differentially expressed genes by non-genotoxic and genotoxic carcinogen compounds. Both numerical study and the real application showed that Stouffer’s test performed better than Tippett’s method and Fisher’s omnibus method with additional permutation steps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is currently a major cause of skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) in the United States. Seasonal variation of MRSA infections in hospital settings has been widely observed. However, systematic time-series analysis of incidence data is desirable to understand the seasonality of community acquired (CA)-MRSA infections at the population level. In this paper, using data on monthly SSTI incidence in children aged 0–19 years and enrolled in Medicaid in Maricopa County, Arizona, from January 2005 to December 2008, we carried out time-series and nonlinear regression analysis to determine the periodicity, trend, and peak timing in SSTI incidence in children at different age: 0–4 years, 5–9 years, 10–14 years, and 15–19 years. We also assessed the temporal correlation between SSTI incidence and meteorological variables including average temperature and humidity. Our analysis revealed a strong annual seasonal pattern of SSTI incidence with peak occurring in early September. This pattern was consistent across age groups. Moreover, SSTIs followed a significantly increasing trend over the 4-year study period with annual incidence increasing from 3.36% to 5.55% in our pediatric population of approximately 290,000. We also found a significant correlation between the temporal variation in SSTI incidence and mean temperature and specific humidity. Our findings could have potential implications on prevention and control efforts against CA-MRSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Photographs of mistletoe (Viscum album L.) berries taken by a permanently fixed camera during their development in autumn were subjected to an outline shape analysis by fitting path curves using a mathematical algorithm from projective geometry. During growth and maturation processes the shape of mistletoe berries can be described by a set of such path curves, making it possible to extract changes of shape using one parameter called Lambda. Lambda describes the outline shape of a path curve. Here we present methods and software to capture and measure these changes of form over time. The present paper describes the software used to automatize a number of tasks including contour recognition, optimization of fitting the contour via hill-climbing, derivation of the path curves, computation of Lambda and blinding the pictures for the operator. The validity of the program is demonstrated by results from three independent measurements showing circadian rhythm in mistletoe berries. The program is available as open source and will be applied in a project to analyze the chronobiology of shape in mistletoe berries and the buds of their host trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We establish a mathematical framework for studying immune interactions with Shigella, a bacteria that kills over one million people worldwide every year. The long-term goal of this novel approach is to inform Shigella vaccine design by elucidating which immune components and bacterial targets are crucial for establishing Shigella immunity. Our delay differential equation model focuses on antibody and B cell responses directed against antigens like lipopolysaccharide in Shigella’s outer membrane. We find that antibody-based vaccines targeting only surface antigens cannot elicit sufficient immunity for protection. Additional boosting prior to infection would require a four-orders-of-magnitude increase in antibodies to sufficiently prevent epithelial invasion. However, boosting anti-LPS B memory can confer protection, which suggests these cells may correlate with immunity. We see that IgA antibodies are slightly more effective per molecule than IgG, but more total IgA is required due to spatial functionality. An extension of the model reveals that targeting both LPS and epithelial entry proteins is a promising avenue to advance vaccine development. This paper underscores the importance of multifaceted immune targeting in creating an effective Shigella vaccine. It introduces mathematical models to the Shigella vaccine development effort and lays a foundation for joint theoretical/experimental/clinical approaches to Shigella vaccine design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) is the dominant paradigm for mass-univariate analysis of neuroimaging data. More recently, a Bayesian approach termed Posterior Probability Mapping (PPM) has been proposed as an alternative. PPM offers two advantages: (i) inferences can be made about effect size thus lending a precise physiological meaning to activated regions, (ii) regions can be declared inactive. This latter facility is most parsimoniously provided by PPMs based on Bayesian model comparisons. To date these comparisons have been implemented by an Independent Model Optimization (IMO) procedure which separately fits null and alternative models. This paper proposes a more computationally efficient procedure based on Savage-Dickey approximations to the Bayes factor, and Taylor-series approximations to the voxel-wise posterior covariance matrices. Simulations show the accuracy of this Savage-Dickey-Taylor (SDT) method to be comparable to that of IMO. Results on fMRI data show excellent agreement between SDT and IMO for second-level models, and reasonable agreement for first-level models. This Savage-Dickey test is a Bayesian analogue of the classical SPM-F and allows users to implement model comparison in a truly interactive manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To facilitate analysis and understanding of biological systems, large-scale data are often integrated into models using a variety of mathematical and computational approaches. Such models describe the dynamics of the biological system and can be used to study the changes in the state of the system over time. For many model classes, such as discrete or continuous dynamical systems, there exist appropriate frameworks and tools for analyzing system dynamics. However, the heterogeneous information that encodes and bridges molecular and cellular dynamics, inherent to fine-grained molecular simulation models, presents significant challenges to the study of system dynamics. In this paper, we present an algorithmic information theory based approach for the analysis and interpretation of the dynamics of such executable models of biological systems. We apply a normalized compression distance (NCD) analysis to the state representations of a model that simulates the immune decision making and immune cell behavior. We show that this analysis successfully captures the essential information in the dynamics of the system, which results from a variety of events including proliferation, differentiation, or perturbations such as gene knock-outs. We demonstrate that this approach can be used for the analysis of executable models, regardless of the modeling framework, and for making experimentally quantifiable predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work aims at identifying a set of humoral immunologic parameters that improve prediction of the activation process in HIV patients. Starting from the well-known impact of humoral immunity in HIV infection, there is still a lack of knowledge in defining the role of the modulation of functional activity and titers of serum antibodies from early stage of infection to the development of AIDS. We propose an integrated approach that combines humoral and clinical parameters in defining the host immunity, implementing algorithms associated with virus control. A number of humoral parameters were simultaneously evaluated in a whole range of serum samples from HIV-positive patients. This issue has been afforded accounting for estimation problems typically related to “feasibility” studies where small sample size in each group and large number of parameters are jointly estimated. We used nonparametric statistical procedures to identify biomarkers in our study which included 42 subjects stratified on five different stages of HIV infection, i.e., Elite Controllers (EC), Long Term Non Progressors (LTNP), HAART, AIDS and Acute Infection (AI). The main goal of the paper is to illustrate a novel profiling method for helping to design a further confirmatory study. A set of seventeen different HIV-specific blood humoral factors were analyzed in all subjects, i.e. IgG and IgA to gp120IIIB, to gp120Bal, to whole gp41, to P1 and T20 gp41 epitopes of the MPER-HR2 region, to QARILAV gp41 epitope of the HR1 region and to CCR5; neutralization activity against five different virus strains and ADCC were also evaluated. Patients were selected on the basis of CD4 cell counts, HIV/RNA and clinical status. The Classification and Regression Trees (CART) approach has been used to uncover specific patterns of humoral parameters in different stages of HIV disease. Virus neutralization of primary virus strains and antibodies to gp41 were required to classify patients, suggesting that clinical profiles strongly rely on functional activity against HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent focus on earlier detection of pathogen introduction in human and animal populations has led to the development of surveillance systems based on automated monitoring of health data. Real- or near real-time monitoring of pre-diagnostic data requires automated classification of records into syndromes–syndromic surveillance–using algorithms that incorporate medical knowledge in a reliable and efficient way, while remaining comprehensible to end users. Methods: This paper describes the application of two of machine learning (Naïve Bayes and Decision Trees) and rule-based methods to extract syndromic information from laboratory test requests submitted to a veterinary diagnostic laboratory. Results: High performance (F1-macro = 0.9995) was achieved through the use of a rule-based syndrome classifier, based on rule induction followed by manual modification during the construction phase, which also resulted in clear interpretability of the resulting classification process. An unmodified rule induction algorithm achieved an F1-micro score of 0.979 though this fell to 0.677 when performance for individual classes was averaged in an unweighted manner (F1-macro), due to the fact that the algorithm failed to learn 3 of the 16 classes from the training set. Decision Trees showed equal interpretability to the rule-based approaches, but achieved an F1-micro score of 0.923 (falling to 0.311 when classes are given equal weight). A Naïve Bayes classifier learned all classes and achieved high performance (F1-micro = 0.994 and F1-macro = .955), however the classification process is not transparent to the domain experts. Conclusion: The use of a manually customised rule set allowed for the development of a system for classification of laboratory tests into syndromic groups with very high performance, and high interpretability by the domain experts. Further research is required to develop internal validation rules in order to establish automated methods to update model rules without user input. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Magnetic stimulation is a standard tool in brain research and has found important clinical applications in neurology, psychiatry, and rehabilitation. Whereas coil designs and the spatial field properties have been intensively studied in the literature, the temporal dynamics of the field has received less attention. Typically, the magnetic field waveform is determined by available device circuit topologies rather than by consideration of what is optimal for neural stimulation. This paper analyzes and optimizes the waveform dynamics using a nonlinear model of a mammalian axon. The optimization objective was to minimize the pulse energy loss. The energy loss drives power consumption and heating, which are the dominating limitations of magnetic stimulation. The optimization approach is based on a hybrid global-local method. Different coordinate systems for describing the continuous waveforms in a limited parameter space are defined for numerical stability. The optimization results suggest that there are waveforms with substantially higher efficiency than that of traditional pulse shapes. One class of optimal pulses is analyzed further. Although the coil voltage profile of these waveforms is almost rectangular, the corresponding current shape presents distinctive characteristics, such as a slow low-amplitude first phase which precedes the main pulse and reduces the losses. Representatives of this class of waveforms corresponding to different maximum voltages are linked by a nonlinear transformation. The main phase, however, scales with time only. As with conventional magnetic stimulation pulses, briefer pulses result in lower energy loss but require higher coil voltage than longer pulses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Systematic reviewer authors intending to include all randomized participants in their meta-analyses need to make assumptions about the outcomes of participants with missing data. Objective: The objective of this paper is to provide systematic reviewer authors with a relatively simple guidance for addressing dichotomous data for participants excluded from analyses of randomized trials. Methods: This guide is based on a review of the Cochrane handbook and published methodological research. The guide deals with participants excluded from the analysis who were considered ‘non-adherent to the protocol’ but for whom data are available, and participants with missing data. Results: Systematic reviewer authors should include data from ‘non-adherent’ participants excluded from the primary study authors' analysis but for whom data are available. For missing, unavailable participant data, authors may conduct a complete case analysis (excluding those with missing data) as the primary analysis. Alternatively, they may conduct a primary analysis that makes plausible assumptions about the outcomes of participants with missing data. When the primary analysis suggests important benefit, sensitivity meta-analyses using relatively extreme assumptions that may vary in plausibility can inform the extent to which risk of bias impacts the confidence in the results of the primary analysis. The more plausible assumptions draw on the outcome event rates within the trial or in all trials included in the meta-analysis. The proposed guide does not take into account the uncertainty associated with assumed events. Conclusions: This guide proposes methods for handling participants excluded from analyses of randomized trials. These methods can help in establishing the extent to which risk of bias impacts meta-analysis results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel method for the systematic implementation of low-power microelectronic circuits aimed at computing nonlinear cellular and molecular dynamics. The method proposed is based on the Nonlinear Bernoulli Cell Formalism (NBCF), an advanced mathematical framework stemming from the Bernoulli Cell Formalism (BCF) originally exploited for the modular synthesis and analysis of linear, time-invariant, high dynamic range, logarithmic filters. Our approach identifies and exploits the striking similarities existing between the NBCF and coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) typically appearing in models of naturally encountered biochemical systems. The resulting continuous-time, continuous-value, low-power CytoMimetic electronic circuits succeed in simulating fast and with good accuracy cellular and molecular dynamics. The application of the method is illustrated by synthesising for the first time microelectronic CytoMimetic topologies which simulate successfully: 1) a nonlinear intracellular calcium oscillations model for several Hill coefficient values and 2) a gene-protein regulatory system model. The dynamic behaviours generated by the proposed CytoMimetic circuits are compared and found to be in very good agreement with their biological counterparts. The circuits exploit the exponential law codifying the low-power subthreshold operation regime and have been simulated with realistic parameters from a commercially available CMOS process. They occupy an area of a fraction of a square-millimetre, while consuming between 1 and 12 microwatts of power. Simulations of fabrication-related variability results are also presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to present a synthesis concerning the mathematical methods used in monofractal and multifractal analysis for the processing of biological and medical data and images. Different mathematical methods were proposed to estimate the monofractal dimension or multifractal spectrum of a fractal object. A brief overview of these algorithms, the way they work as well as their advantages and disadvantages are presented. Fractal and multifractal geometries provide noninvasive powerful tools that allow biologists, researchers and physicians the early detection and diagnosis of diseases, based on the analyses of biological and medical data and images. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]