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• We perform comparative LCA of BEV, PHEV and ICEV in China. • Technology and energy foresight in 2030 are analyzed by different modeling methods. • BEV offers 23% of GWP mitigation in present and continuous reduction in 2030. • Electrification has great potentials for burden-shifting to toxicity impacts. • Assumptions and methodological choices have great effect on GWP up to 51%. In order to make the sustainable development of transport system, China has taken actions toward the electrification transition of vehicles. However, whether the electric vehicles (EVs) are more environmentally friendly than the conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) in China is still not clear due to a lack of complete and consistent environmental impact comparison of vehicles. This study takes the vehicle models from BYD Qin Pro series in China as illustrations to compare the environmental impact of battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) with the conventional ICEV. The environmental profiles of vehicles across the whole life cycle within a set of environmental indicators are analyzed. The key aspects that may heavily influence the environmental impacts, i.e. regional heterogeneity, technology improvement and different modeling methods (attributional vs consequential) choices, are further tested, respectively. The results show that already today the BEV and PHEV powered by the current average Chinese electricity mix offer 23% and 17% reduction of global warming potential (GWP), respectively, compared to the gasoline ICEV. But it is achieved at the expense of considerable increases in mineral resource scarcity and ecological and human toxicity, etc. All of the factors considered show markedly influences on the environmental profiles of EVs, even up to 51% of GWP differences for different modeling methods application. And they all have the possibility to reverse the environmental priorities of some impact categories among ICEV, BEV and PHEV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To study the impact of the promotion of electric vehicles on carbon emissions in China, the full life carbon emissions of electric vehicles are studied on the basis of considering such factors as vehicle weight and grid mix composition, and fuel vehicles are added for comparison. In this paper, we collect data for 34 domestic electric vehicles, and linear regression analysis is used to model the relationship between vehicle weight and energy consumption. Then, a Hybrid Life Cycle Assessment method is used to establish the life cycle carbon emission calculation model for electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. Finally, the life cycle carbon emissions of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles under different electrical energy structures are discussed using scenario analysis. The results show that under the current grid mix composition in China, the carbon emissions of electric vehicles of the same vehicle weight class are 24% to 31% higher than that of fuel vehicles. As the proportion of clean energy in the grid mix composition increases, the advantages of electric vehicles to reduce carbon emissions will gradually emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]