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ABSTRACT This study evaluates the factors contributing to carbon emissions in China between 2002 and 2021, considering the impact of GDP growth, shocks in oil prices, trade liberalization and energy use. Using the dynamic simulated ARDL (SARDL) model, we indicate a long‐term link between trade liberalization, oil prices (WTI) shocks, GDP growth, energy use and CO2. The novel SARDL revealed a direct relationship between trade liberalization and CO2 in China in the long term. However, the results show a negative impact of WTI shocks on CO2 emissions. The study suggests that renewable energy (RE) significantly and negatively affects China's CO2 emissions. In addition, the findings conclude that, in the case of China, GDP has an insignificant long‐run relationship with CO2 emissions. The outcomes provide valuable insights for policymakers, researchers and industry stakeholders to enhance RE and promote sustainable energy practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transparency reforms make government contracting more open and amenable to public scrutiny, helping to improve public spending efficiency. But they are also politically sensitive, complex and highly technical, which makes them especially difficult to implement if state capacity is weak. Our research on nine low‐ and middle‐income countries in Africa and Asia systematically assesses progress in improving the legal framework for procurement transparency and implementing systems that allow open access to data, between 2008 and 2019. Through interviews with key informants, we explore the reasons for progress or its absence, finding that success relies on strong leadership commitment, broad coalitions of state and non‐state actors, and sufficient technical capacity. Leadership commitment ensures that implementing bodies have the appropriate mandate and resources, while broad coalitions sustain commitment and harness external technical assistance. Both factors are best achieved by framing the reforms as a way of improving efficiency rather than fighting corruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent Canadian preferential trade agreements (PTAs) include increased market access for imports of supply‐managed products (dairy and poultry). Such agreements are typically expected to create trade flows and increase supply of relatively low‐priced products in Canada. Industry groups representing Canadian producers and processors of supply‐managed products negotiated to receive approximately C$5 billion in payments from the federal government as compensation for the prospects of facing more international competition and reduced domestic sales. We discuss partial‐equilibrium simulation models that are commonly used by academics and governments to project market effects of new trade agreements, and conceptually illustrate how different assumptions about import supply conditions generate different projected market outcomes. We focus on the quota fill rates of new access commitments—most studies, including those used to inform government policies on compensation payments, assume imports increase in an amount equal to new commitments. This is often not the case, including with recent Canadian trade agreements. We apply a conceptual framework to Canada's supply‐management industry by re‐simulating a quantitative model of the Canadian dairy industry with updated information on implementation and quota fill rates. Projected market effects of trade agreements under the assumption of full import quotas are markedly different from projections that account for unfilled quotas. We discuss the political economy and welfare implications of compensation payments in light of our analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes the ways heterogenous firms procure their inputs in the presence of relationship‐specific investments and incomplete contracts. We first consider a closed economy in which firms decide how to structure their organization. Production is sequential and inputs (upstream and downstream) are sourced in the same order as production. While our closed‐economy setup is analogous to Antràs and Chor (Econometrica, 2013), there are two distinct features: (1) The reward to each supplier is determined through bargaining over the full revenue of the firm (as opposed to marginal contribution of the supplier), and (2) The reward structure combined with our sequential bargaining protocol gives rise to linkages across suppliers. The analysis in Antràs and Chor (Econometrica, 2013) identifies a mechanism in which upstream organizational decisions have spillover effects on downstream suppliers' investment incentives. Thanks to our novel features, we identify another mechanism: the spillover effects of downstream organizational decisions on the investment incentive of upstream suppliers. Next, we consider an open economy in which firms not only make organizational decisions but also determine where to source their inputs. We show that these decisions are connected between sequential production stages such that the sourcing location of the upstream input may affect the organizational choice in the downstream stage. We then examine how within sectoral heterogeneity and variations in industry characteristics influence the relative prevalence of firms that choose to form different organizational structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores how income inequality among individuals in each country and trade costs depicting geographic distance between countries impact economic welfare and regime choice under representative democracy, comparing three trading regimes: most favored nation, customs union, and free trade agreement. We examine two cases: one in which trade costs are incurred symmetrically among all countries, and the other in which no trade costs are incurred among the potential member countries, but only between them and nonmembers. In each case, we identify the political feasibility of each regime as well as the impact on the average welfare levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kimball preferences possess properties that make them a powerful tool for multi‐sector applied general equilibrium. While they are homothetic, they also can be made arbitrarily close to constant elasticity of substitution (ces) preferences, thereby sharing some of their properties 'by continuity'. We develop a trade model which brings together traded and nontraded sectors, variable markups, and costly trade for this rich class of homothetic preferences. We characterize the consequences—for both sectors—of trade liberalization in traded sector. Numerical simulations for a calibrated version of the model reveal that the elasticity of utility with respect to trade costs is about 25%–27%, depending on whether traded and nontrade goods are complements or substitutes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gary Becker's theory of discrimination argues that increasing competition will reduce discrimination by reallocating market share to less discriminatory firms. We develop a simple model in which increased competition can also affect discrimination by affecting firm‐level hiring decisions. We use the 1984–1991 Colombian trade liberalization episode and plant‐level data to investigate this claim. We find that plants in industries that faced the greatest reductions in tariff protection increased the female share of their workforce more than plants in industries that saw little or no reduction in tariffs. In addition, we find that exporting plants tended to employ a higher share of female workers than non‐exporters did. In contrast, we find little evidence that trade liberalization drove discriminating plants from the market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine how non‐tariff measures (NTMs) affect the formation of free trade agreements (FTAs), using data from 114 countries over the period 1986–2019 and applying binary response models. Splitting NTMs into eight categories, some tend to be restrictive, some promotive and some neutral, in terms of their effects on FTA formation. Technical measures tend to encourage, while non‐technical measures tend to discourage, country‐pairs to join FTAs. Aggregating all NTMs into one variable would give rise to weak conclusions. Our results for the 12 control variables are largely in line with those of previous studies on international trade flows or on FTAs but without considering NTMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares different environmental policies under free‐trade and carbon tariffs. Our findings are as follows. First, taxes and standards of exporting countries become laxer under carbon tariffs than free trade. Next, if an importing country adopts free trade, its welfare is relatively lower (higher) under taxes when the marginal pollution damage is smaller (greater). Conversely, if an importing country implements a carbon tariff policy, its welfare is relatively higher under taxes. Last, the importing country's free‐trade (carbon tariff) policy leads the exporting country to have lower (higher) welfare under taxes than standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of European Policy Analysis is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The European Union (EU) increasingly seeks cooperation with transit and sending countries to prevent irregular migration and enforce returns. Yet, these countries have little incentives to engage in such cooperation. To overcome interest asymmetries, the EU has sought to link trade and migration control in its preferential trade agreements (PTAs). Drawing on a comprehensive dataset of migration provisions in all PTAs signed between 1960 and 2020 and a qualitative analysis of key policy documents, we show that the inclusion of such provisions does not follow patterns of interdependence and strategic priorities resulting from problem pressure. Rather, the proliferation of migration control provisions in EU PTAs is best explained by the institutional framework guiding the negotiation of these provisions. Whilst reflecting the political will to use PTAs as a 'carrot' to incite third‐country cooperation, these findings also show the limits of targeted action on migration control via commercial policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable growth and the reduction of environmental pressures are important priorities that are issues of concern for both developed and developing countries. However, while carbon emissions and ecological footprint are commonly used by researchers in the context of environmental deterioration, a broader and more extensive metric for ecological quality is considered necessary. From this perspective, the load capacity factor provides a more detailed sustainable environment appraisal by simultaneously considering biocapacity and ecological footprint. Limited studies have examined the determinants of load capacity factor (LCAP). This survey attempts to fill the gap, using the case of Japan. Employing the dynamic ARDL approaches, the present research investigates the effect of renewable energy usage, economic growth, economic complexity, financial development, and trade globalization on load capacity factor in Japan for the period between 1980 and 2017. The empirical evidence indicates that economic complexity, economic growth, and financial development adversely impact LCAP, whereas renewable energy usage and trade globalization positively affect LCAP. Hence, we recommend that it is essential for Japan to attain self‐sufficiency in essential goods and minimize its reliance on the rest of the world. Furthermore, policymakers should capitalize on the benefits of trade globalization by adopting additional measures aimed at facilitating trade liberalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exclusion of some groups caused by the misuse of government power remains a major problem across the world. We propose that market‐oriented institutions and policies have the capacity to reduce such exclusion. To test this, we use an overall measure derived from the V‐Dem dataset, capturing government discrimination based on political group, social group, socio‐economic group, and gender, which we combine with the Fraser Institute's Economic Freedom of the World index. The sample consists of 153 countries for 1970–2020, which we organize in a panel consisting of consecutive, non‐overlapping 5‐year periods, rendering up to about 1,200 observations. Our estimates show a clear negative association between the rule of law and government discrimination in electoral democracies and electoral autocracies but not in single‐party autocracies. There are, however, reasons for not considering the finding for electoral autocracies causal. Two further areas of economic freedom seem to matter: free trade is negatively related to government exclusion in electoral democracies, while regulatory freedom is so in both types of autocracies. Thus, it seems as if a market‐economic system may be able to constrain public officials in the direction of non‐discrimination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We seek to investigate the effects of communication by central banks on professional and consumer inflation expectations. Accordingly, we investigate 12 small open economies implementing inflation targeting. The communication tone of the central banks is determined based on their post‐decision releases. We use computational linguistics to quantify this factor. With regard to two subsamples that are identified based on the central bank's experience in inflation targeting, we estimate panel models while controlling for other prospective drivers of expectations. The communication tone of a central bank significantly affects the expectations of professional forecasters from economies with more experience in inflation targeting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the disparate impacts of Chinese import growth on US workers according to gender and age. I show that Chinese import growth generates larger employment losses for less skilled women than men in manufacturing. The gendered effects vary by age and are most concentrated among middle‐aged workers. The motherhood career interruption may explain the gender‐age disparities. Trade shocks depress labor outcomes more for women with children than for their male counterparts. Moreover, I find that the gender‐age differential effect is alleviated when trade shocks hit industries with longer female job tenure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Most signatories of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement have submitted tariff concession offers, as published on the AfCFTA Secretariat's website. Over a year since the AfCFTA came into effect, it is time to take stock of these submissions and assess the data with respect to members' stances towards fostering intra‐African trade through openness on the one hand and maintaining protection against competing imports and revenues from import tariffs on the other. Combining the offers with corresponding trade and tariff data, we find that there are both significant data gaps and inconsistencies with the AfCFTA's trade liberalisation modalities and the trade classification standard. Constructing two tariff schedules, one which repairs the offers for compliance with the modalities and another that maximises the import tariff revenue retained as a benchmark, the analysis confirms that the modalities require regions to liberalise strongly, but most opt to liberalise even more and earlier than necessary. Stances towards freer trade, however, differ markedly between regions. Deriving a measure of liberalisation stance from the schedules above and associating it with trade, economic and geographic indicators reveals patterns that suggest potential motivations for the stances of some country groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to build and analyze a model of labor market slack considering unemployment along with employment in which the number of hours is limited to a level below that preferred by employees. We thus have "underemployment" along with unemployment. We analyze the need for potential policy action directed at the reduction of unemployment, simultaneous with an autonomous process of labor market job creation and migration. We model delays in labor market responses to past unemployment and vacancies creation and capture the effect on unemployment through a non‐linear dynamic system. We observe not only job separation and matching but also movement into and out of underemployment. The model allows for migration in an open economy context. We analyze the stability behavior of the resulting equilibria for our dynamic system, including Dirac and weak kernels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article models the process of structural transformation and catching‐up in a demand‐led Southern economy constrained by its balance of payments. Starting from the Sraffian Supermultiplier Model, we model a dual‐sector small open economy with a traditional and a modern sector that interacts with a technologically advanced Northern economy. We propose two (alternative) autonomous elements that define the growth rate of this demand‐led economy: government spending and exports. Drawing from the Structuralist literature, productivity in the technologically laggard Southern economy grows by absorbing technology from the Northern economy, by both embodied and disembodied spillovers, and potentially closing the technology gap. The gap affects the income elasticity of exports, bringing a supply‐side mediation to the growth rates in line with the Balance of Payments Constrained Model. We observe that a demand‐led government policy plays a central role in structural change, pushing the modern sector to a larger share of employment than what results under export‐led growth. Such a demand policy is the only way in which partial catching up (in productivity and GDP per capita) can result, and this is facilitated by a global market place in which the balance of payments constraint is relatively soft. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the short run effects of Brexit border disruption on the UK economy. We estimate a structural VAR for the UK, where Brexit effects are identified by the dates of Brexit events, the referendum, and the exit from the single market. We find evidence of short run effects of Brexit: temporary effects on GDP, exports and imports (slightly negative), and on inflation and interest rates (slightly positive). These effects are consistent with modest disruption from introducing a border with the EU--a border due to be made barrier-free and seamless by the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement. Previous work using other countries as comparators is vulnerable to identification difficulties. We also survey earlier modeling work on the long run effects of evolving policies of free trade, UK-sourced regulation, and liberalized immigration. Models of long run trade suggest the emergence of substantial gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study employed computable general equilibrium policy simulations to examine the impact of import tariff liberalization on socioeconomic outcomes including living standards, cost of living, gross domestic product (GDP) from expenditure, total investment expenditure, intermediate input demand, output, value‐added, tariff revenue, sales tax revenue, indirect tax revenue, direct income tax revenue, factor income tax revenue, and factor demand. Findings from the simulations have policy implications touching on a need to embrace reciprocal tariff liberalization under agreements like strategic trade and investment partnerships and economic partnership agreements as they are associated with welfare gains, reduction in cost of living, and GDP growth. Targeted policy incentives could be directed to specific domestic sectors since tariff liberalization has negative impacts on investment expenditure. Incentives regarding intermediate inputs should be directed to the manufacturing and services sectors for liberalization of agrifood commodities. Targeted policy incentives should be directed to the manufacturing and services sectors which experience decrease in output with tariff reductions. Liberalization of manufactured commodities should be accompanied by value‐added incentives directed to the agrifood and home production–home consumption sectors. For the liberalization of manufactured commodities, targeted policy incentives should be directed to the services sector which experiences job losses while for the liberalization of tariffs on imports of agrifood commodities, targeted policy incentives should be directed to the agrifood and the home production–home consumption sectors, which also lose jobs. These targeted policy incentives could support industrial activity and compensate for revenue loss, especially from customs duties. Related Articles: Gruber, Lloyd. 2013. "Trade, Growth, Poverty, and Politics: Toward a Unified Theory." Politics & Policy 41(5): 723–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12034. Onyango, Gedion, and Japheth Otieno Ondiek. 2022. "Open Innovation During the COVID‐19 Pandemic Policy Responses in South Africa and Kenya." Politics & Policy 50(5): 1008–31. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12490. Soto, Gloria. 2012. "Environmental Impact of Agricultural Trade Liberalization under NAFTA." Politics & Policy 40(3): 471–91. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2012.00354.x. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan's economy since its creation has remained heavily dependent on foreign aid, especially to manage the ever‐widening gap between the available financial resources, development expenditure, fiscal deficit, and current account deficit. This article critically evaluates the effectiveness of foreign aid in Pakistan from 2000 to 2022 via an in‐depth literature review and the rational actor model (RAM). Furthermore, a mixed‐method approach based on descriptive quantitative and in‐depth qualitative research methods was adopted for this study. The article demonstrates that RAM can assist policy makers, enabling them to make decisions vis‐à‐vis foreign aid while safeguarding national interests, particularly economic interests. However, this study finds that for Pakistan to achieve sustainable economic growth, increasing exports and attracting more foreign direct investment hold greater potential than continued reliance on foreign aid. In conclusion, the article prescribes policy measures to restructure Pakistan's political system to foster socioeconomic development through trade liberalization and good governance. Related Articles: Asongu, Simplice A., and Joseph Nnanna. 2019. "Foreign Aid, Instability, and Governance in Africa." Politics & Policy 47(4): 807–48. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12320. Dobransky, Steve. 2014. "Violators amongst Us: International Regimes and the Role of Compliance, a Case Study on Official Development Assistance." Politics & Policy 42(4): 593–634. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12082. Scarlato, Margherita, and Giorgio d'Agostino. 2019. "The Political Dimension of Cash Transfers in Latin America and Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Comparative Perspective." Politics & Policy 47(6): 1125–55. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12332. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We identify monetary policy shocks in New Zealand as 1‐day changes in the whole yield curve around monetary policy announcements. The impacts of these shocks on inflation and output are estimated using functional local projections. We find that the effects of monetary policy shocks are standard in the short run but might be different in the long run. Monetary policy shocks in a small open economy have similar effects as in a large economy, except that unconventional monetary policy announcements have limited impact on long‐term interest rates. Accounting for forward guidance, used in New Zealand since 1997, is important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional trade agreements (RTAs) have experienced significant growth worldwide, leading to an increase in studies assessing their impact on bilateral trade flows. With the availability of disaggregated trade data, numerous studies have examined the influence of these agreements specifically on agri‐food trade. However, the results of these studies exhibit heterogeneity, posing challenges for policymakers seeking to understand the effects of RTAs on agri‐food trade. To address this issue, we conducted a meta‐analysis of 61 studies investigating the effects of various RTAs on agri‐food trade. Using funnel asymmetric testing, our analysis reveals the presence of publication bias in the existing literature. By accounting for this bias, we found robust evidence that RTAs positively and significantly promote agri‐food trade. Notably, the extent of this effect depends on the depth of economic integration within the RTA, distinguishing between customs unions and free trade agreements, as well as the classification of agri‐food products as primary or processed. The ex‐post effects of RTAs on agri‐food trade are less pronounced when we control for both publication bias and heterogeneity, compared to controlling only for publication bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does state‐owned enterprise (SOE) prevalence affect the employment adjustments of firms after trade liberalisation? This paper estimates the role of the prevalence of SOEs in the labour market in import competition by using city‐industry level panel data in China from 2000 to 2006. Our results indicate that import competition decreases employment in the manufacturing industry and that SOE prevalence could partially offset the negative effect on employment. This offsetting effect is demonstrated at both extensive and intensive margins. Moreover, SOE prevalence has a positive externality for the employment of non‐SOEs under the import competition shock. Therefore, we verify the positive externality of SOEs in labour market adjustment in response to import competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the contribution of institutional reforms to economic growth. To this end, we distinguish between several classes of institutional reform in the approach to economic liberalisation. Based on a sample of 24 current and former transition economies for the period 1980–2016, we estimate the counterfactual scenarios related to each distinctive institutional approach to the economic liberalisation by making use of the synthetic control method. Our evidence uncovers notable contrasts in the long‐term effectiveness of designated policy approaches in recovering from the transitional recession. A variety of synthetic control estimates suggests that a sustained big bang approach (rapid reforms) appears to be the most effective approach, while an abortive and gradualist approach tends to produce a permanent breakdown of the growth trajectories relative to the estimated counterfactuals. The point estimates survive an extensive battery of placebo tests. By employing the same methodological tool kit, future research could examine the impact of transition reforms on other socio‐economic variables, such as the poverty rates, income inequalities, health and environmental outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present study, the causality between resource rents, openness, and economic growth was investigated using the quantile causality method and quarterly data (2006–2021) in Iran. The advantage of this method is that it makes it possible to investigate the relationships of variables in the conditional distribution tail and all quantiles by using quantile‐based conditional regressions. The results showed a bi‐direction causality between resource rents and growth in the tail of the distribution. Therefore, in the upper median quantiles, the causality is from the resources rent to growth, and in the lower quantiles, the causality is in the opposite direction. The results confirmed, in general, the presence of bi‐direction causality between economic growth and openness in quantiles. In the middle quantile, there is a uni‐direction causality relationship from growth to the trade openness, and in the upper quantile, there is causality from openness to economic growth. In addition, the results showed evidence of a tail dependency between resource rents and trade openness, in some quantiles, the causal relationship is from openness to the resources rent, and in the median quantiles, the causality is from rent to openness. These results show that the rent effect of natural resources can be considered as an opportunity for economic growth by adopting appropriate and flexible policies by governments. We recommend the implementation of more trade liberalization policies to maximize the benefits from trade openness, especially in the countries where the resource curse phenomenon reported. Important policy implications can be learned from the empirical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade and investment are crucial drivers of economic growth. Successful execution of trade and investment policy can elevate a developing country to a sustained growth path and make it self‐reliant. Bangladesh implemented a trade liberalization policy in the 1980s, deviating much from its conservative trade policy. This article assesses the impacts of trade, investment in physical as well as human capital, and a few trade policy variables on income surge for the liberalized regime. The econometric analysis finds that export, import, and domestic investment stimulate income. The impact of foreign investment is not conducive. Public spending on education also contributes to the income surge. Among the policy variables, trade openness and currency depreciation produce a beneficial impact. Population growth retards economic growth. The baseline results hold in the estimations involving several specifications of variables and testified as robust. The article views that a comprehensive approach to trade and investment policy would ensure the comparative advantage of trade and the well‐being of Bangladesh. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Substantial tariff reductions and increased usage of non‐tariff measures (NTMs) have been key dynamics of global trade policy in recent decades. We use highly disaggregated data on applied most favored nation tariffs, NTMs, and trade to investigate how International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditionality as a form of external pressure to reduce tariffs contributed to this dynamic in developing countries. Our results show that structural adjustment programs (SAPs) effectively lowered tariffs without increasing the usage of NTMs. A typical three‐year program containing tariff conditionality decreased tariff rates in the range of 2.0 to 3.8 percentage points in total. Furthermore, IMF programs reduced NTM initializations significantly. We also show that tariff conditionality was more effective in initiating tariff cuts for countries without previous greater globalization efforts than being a "catalyst" for ongoing liberalization efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese firms faced an all‐around trade liberalization process during the early 2000s: lower barriers from other countries on Chinese goods, and lower Chinese barriers on other countries' goods and inputs. This paper disentangles the effects of each type of trade liberalization on Chinese firm‐level employment. We find that reductions in Chinese and foreign final‐good tariffs are associated with job destruction in low and mid‐low productivity firms and job creation in high‐productivity firms. Chinese final‐good trade liberalization produces the largest firm‐level employment responses, whereas the employment effects of Chinese input‐trade liberalization are limited to job destruction in the least productive firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper examines the impact of trade liberalisation on the wage premium using firm level data for Thai manufacturing as the case study. Tariff protection is applied here to represent trade liberalisation, in terms of both nominal and effective tariffs. Output and input tariffs are separately examined to assess nominal protection, while for effective rates of protection (ERP), both a traditional ERP measure and a measure incorporating possible water in tariffs and the effect of FTAs are applied. In addition to tariff protection, the impact of GVCs, considered through trade in parts and components (P&Cs), on the wage premium is investigated in the study. Our results show that firm‐specific factors are more crucial in affecting the wage premium than trade liberalisation and participation in global production networks. With trade liberalisation, only input tariffs matter in determining the wage premium while an insignificant relationship is observed when either output tariffs or ERPs are employed to reflect trade liberalisation. Participation in GVCs also has an insignificant impact on the wage premium. Wage‐skilled employment decoupling is evident in the study, that is, trade liberalisation and GVCs have a negligible influence on the wage premium but have a significant influence in the case of relatively skilled workers. Trade liberalisation tends to lower demand for skilled workers in response to cheaper imported products, while participation in global production networks encourages more skilled workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The grain storage held by rural households, given its significant quantity and crucial role in household operations, plays a vital role in ensuring food security. This paper constructs a theoretical framework that encompasses household decisions regarding off‐farm employment, savings, and consumption, as well as the production, selling, and storage of grain. The theoretical model, driven by motivations of risk aversion and temporal price arbitrage, highlights the importance of market liberalization and off‐farm employment in shaping rural household grain storage decisions. Utilizing household‐level panel data from 2003 to 2020, we empirically validate that both market liberalization and off‐farm employment contribute to the reduction of household grain storage. However, these effects exhibit heterogeneity depending on the scale of household grain production and the specific crops cultivated. Significant impacts of market liberalization are observed among large‐scale producers who have greater exposure to the market. Furthermore, the storage of rice and corn decreases with an increase in off‐farm employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic integration ranks as one of the leading development strategies in Africa. The newly created African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the proposed Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) linking three major regional blocks offer a new impetus to studying trade policy effects. Using a structural gravity model of bilateral manufacturing trade between the African Union member states and all countries in the world, the trade effects of African economic integration agreements (EIAs) are assessed. The findings suggest that economic integration, in aggregate, enhances total African exports. Disaggregating the effects by type of agreement and by subgroups of countries, free trade agreements (FTAs) and partial scope agreements (PSAs) are found to increase extra African exports, but have no effects on intraAfrican exports. A positive and significant effect on intra African exports is introduced when the FTA dummy is combined with AfCFTA in contrast to a neutral effect stemming from the joint FTA-TFTA dummy. The findings suggest that a continentwide FTA yields greater benefits when compared with integrating the subregions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we make use of Vietnam's annual enterprise surveys to investigate the product selection and product mix responses to import competition in manufacturing firms. We estimate the effect of imports from Vietnam's free trade agreement partners on firms' product scope and sales concentration, controlling for firms and industry characteristics and the conditions in export markets. The empirical results consistently indicate that Vietnam's manufacturing firms narrow the product scope and concentrate on better selling products in response to rising import competition. Given the dominant presence of quality sorting in the manufacturing industries, our analysis suggests an aggregate quality improvement as firms reallocate sales towards high-quality products in responses to competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a dynamic preferential trade agreement (PTA) formation model, we show that political biases in exporting and import‐competing sectors substantially impact the extent of PTA formation. While both exclusion and free riding incentives constrain the expansion to global free trade in a free trade agreement (FTA) game, only the former incentive arises in a customs union (CU) game. When we endogenize the choice between FTAs and CUs, the tension between the flexibility benefit of FTAs and the coordination benefit of CUs reveals that FTAs always serve as PTA building blocks while CUs may serve as PTA building or stumbling blocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the effects of monetary policy credibility and the open economy trilemma on monetary policy efficiency in developing countries. Based on a sample of 28 developing countries, the findings reveal that monetary policy credibility increases monetary policy efficiency. The results also show that central banks in developing countries have more efficient monetary policies when they choose a policy arrangement contrary to the 'middle‐ground convergence'; but, to the extent they accumulate international reserves, it allows them to move to a middle‐ground strategy. Regarding the trilemma, the estimates suggest when monetary policy is independent, monetary policy is more efficient. Furthermore, when financial openness and exchange rate stability are deepened, central banks become less efficient in conducting monetary policy. However, when countries hold higher levels of international reserves, the positive effect of monetary autonomy on monetary policy efficiency decreases and the negative effect of financial liberalisation on monetary policy efficiency decreases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oman's trade performance achievements with Singapore are assessed within the Gulf–Singapore Free Trade Agreement (GSFTA) framework. Since coming into force in January 2015, Oman's total export value to Singapore has plunged significantly. The number of imported products from Singapore remained significantly higher than the number of Oman's exports to Singapore, confirming that Omani exports have a weaker presence in the Singaporean market. In the post‐2015 period, Oman's export partner share in trade remained below its import partner share. Although Oman's comparative advantage strengthened in consumer goods, intermediate goods, chemicals and metals since 2015, animals, food, vegetables and wood consistently revealed their comparative disadvantage since 2000. Between 2015 and 2018, Oman's export share of capital and intermediate goods to Singapore fell from 45.23% to 33.57%, while it rose for consumer goods, chemicals, fuels, machinery and electrical products. Oman's trade reforms have resulted in weighted average tariffs on all products falling from around 5% in 2005 to below 0.60% in 2018. While GSFTA has delivered on expanding trade between Oman and Singapore (though with different magnitudes), it has fallen short of delivering the 'level playing field' as expected of Oman's bilateral trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been hailed as a key pillar and catalyst for economic growth, industrialization, and sustainable development in Africa. One of the anticipated benefits is the promise to increase intra‐African trade through the elimination of import duties and other tariffs among countries. However, due to the heterogeneity between the African countries, questions remain as to whether each country will benefit from tariff elimination. This paper aims to evaluate the macroeconomic, fiscal, and welfare consequences of import tax removal in Senegal with the rest of Africa. We link an extended version of the partnership for economic policy (PEP) static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a non‐parametric microsimulation approach. We calibrate the model with Senegal's most recent Social Accounting Matrix. The microeconomic model is calibrated using the latest Senegalese household consumption survey. The findings indicate that tariff removal from the rest of Africa has favorable economic, fiscal, and welfare impacts for Senegal. The paper suggests that it will lead to an increase in economic growth and investment. The removal of tariffs is expected to favor urban households over rural ones and leads to a modest decrease in income inequality, accompanied by a 3.36% reduction in the number of poor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study a flexible class of trade models with international production networks and arbitrary wedge‐like distortions like markups, tariffs, or nominal rigidities. We characterize the general equilibrium response of variables to shocks in terms of microeconomic statistics. Our results are useful for decomposing the sources of real GDP and welfare growth, and for computing counterfactuals. Using the same set of microeconomic sufficient statistics, we also characterize societal losses from increases in tariffs and iceberg trade costs and dissect the qualitative and quantitative importance of accounting for disaggregated details. Our results, which can be used to compute approximate and exact counterfactuals, provide an analytical toolbox for studying large‐scale trade models and help to bridge the gap between computation and theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: While effective policies exist to reduce alcohol‐related harm, political will to enact them is low in many jurisdictions. We aimed to identify key barriers and strategies for strengthening political priority for alcohol policy reform. Methods: A framework synthesis was conducted, incorporating relevant theory, key informant interviews (n = 37) and a scoping review. Thematic analysis informed the development of a framework for understanding and influencing political priority for alcohol policy. Results: Twelve barriers and 14 strategies were identified at multiple levels (global, national and local). Major barriers included neoliberal or free trade ideology, the globalised alcohol industry, limited advocate capacity and the normalisation of alcohol harms. Strategies fell into two categories: sector‐specific and system change initiatives. Sector‐specific strategies primarily focus on influencing policymakers and mobilising civil society. Examples include developing a clear, unified solution, coalition building and effective framing. System change initiatives target structural change to reduce the power imbalance between industry and civil society, such as restricting industry involvement in policymaking and securing sustainable funding for advocacy. A key example is establishing an international treaty, similar to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, to support domestic policymaking. Discussion and Conclusions: Our findings provide a framework for understanding and advancing political priority for alcohol policy. The framework highlights that progress can be achieved at various levels and through diverse groups of actors. The importance of upstream drivers of policymaking was a key finding, presenting challenges for time‐poor advocates, but offering potential facilitation through effective global leadership. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of trade protectionism impacting economic and environmental sustainability, a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of trade on carbon emissions is critical to economic and environmental sustainability. Existing literature mainly explores the impact of trade on carbon emissions from the perspective of trade openness, neglecting the perspectives of trade diversification and trade direction. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating the impact of trade openness (measured by trade volume, import, and export), and trade diversification (measured by import diversification and export diversification) on carbon emissions based on data from OECD and G20 countries between 1997 and 2019. The study further explores the heterogeneity, asymmetry, and mediation effects. The results demonstrate that (i) the impact of trade on carbon emissions is heterogeneous, with trade openness leads to an increase in carbon emissions, while trade diversification leads to a reduction in carbon emissions. Moreover, import diversification has the strongest effect on reducing carbon emissions. (ii) The impact of trade openness on carbon emissions is asymmetry. Trade openness increases carbon emissions at 10%–50% quantile levels and reduces carbon emissions at 80%–90% quantile levels. However, the impact of trade diversification on carbon emissions is consistent. (iii) The impact of trade openness on carbon emissions is mediated by technology effect and structural effect. On one hand, trade openness leads to an increase in carbon emissions by the industrial structure. On the other hand, it contributes to the reduction of carbon emissions by technological progress. These findings could serve to better understand the complexity of free trade's impact on economic and environmental sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable and inclusive development aims to achieve long‐term economic growth while ensuring environmental and social sustainability. This study investigates the significance of the Belt and Road Initiative (B&R) in promoting sustainable and inclusive development in Chinese provinces along its route, considering it a quasi‐natural experiment. To assess the effects, we construct an index system that captures critical dimensions of sustainable and inclusive development. The results reveal that the B&R has positively influenced sustainable and inclusive development in the Chinese provinces along the route. This impact is facilitated through transmission mechanisms such as technological innovation and upgrading industrial structures. However, variations exist between provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt and those along the Maritime Silk Road, with the former experiencing more pronounced effects. These findings provide a valuable foundation for the government to leverage the B&R and develop comprehensive sustainable, and inclusive development strategies. Furthermore, this study offers insights into promoting high‐quality development in an open economy context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thirlwall's law is one of the most powerful empirical regularities in demand‐led growth theories. In recent years, the challenges imposed by globalisation have led to a new wave of studies incorporating into this framework topics such as ecological sustainability, the complexity of innovation processes, the role of institutions, the composition of external imbalances, and gender issues. We notice some overlapping between two alternative interpretations: one that sees the law as a binding constraint and another that adopts a kind of 'centre‐of‐gravity' perspective. It is argued that they may be rather complementary. By means of a simple Keynesian multiplier model compatible with Harrodian instability, we show that assuming a balance‐of‐payments ceiling to growth gives rise to persistent and bounded fluctuations such that the external constraint works as an asymmetric 'centre‐of‐gravity'. There is no need to impose a floor to output. Moreover, the model allows for different sources of autonomous demand. Numerical simulations show the robustness of our results with respect to alternative scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the optimal strategy of a small open economy receiving foreign direct investment (FDI) in an optimal growth context. We prove that no domestic firm can enter the new industry when the multinational enterprise's productivity or the fixed entry cost is high. Nevertheless, the host country's investment stock converges to a higher steady state than an economy without FDI. A domestic firm enters the new industry if its productivity is high enough. Moreover, the domestic firm can dominate or even eliminate its foreign counterpart. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides direct evidence of attempted tax evasion in response to changes in tariff rates in a small open economy using transaction‐level customs data for Pakistani importers. Our results show that there exists a systematic relationship between the difference in declared and assessed import values of the shipment, and the duty rate charged to the importer. We demonstrate that higher duty rates are associated with a greater misdeclaration of imports. In particular, a one‐percentage point increase in duty rates, on average, is linked with 0.4% increase in under‐invoicing of imports by Pakistani firms. The study explores several dimensions to examine the variation in estimates obtained across product types, import origins, modes of processing import transactions and the role of firm characteristics, such as, frequency of imports, in determining the extent of misdeclaration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a speech at the Sorbonne in Paris, highlighting the need for a "power Europe" to face global upheaval. Macron emphasized the importance of controlling Europe's external borders and preserving its values. He praised the EU's Pact on Migration and Asylum, which aims to improve border control and cooperation among member states. Macron also called for greater European cooperation in combating terrorism, organized crime, and drug trafficking. He emphasized the need for a political structure, similar to the Economic and Financial Affairs Council, to address these issues effectively. [Extracted from the article]

This article contains the methodology and main results related to the update and extension of the widest interregional input–output tables for the entire EU27, UK and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries. This work continues the outstanding effort developed in the past years regarding the estimation and analysis of different multiregional input–output (MRIO) databases at the country level (world input–output database, EXIOBASE, ICIO, FIGARO, etc.) and the MRIO tables developed for the European Union (EU) at the NUTS2 level. The main contribution consists of updating and extending the current EUREGIO collection to obtain a EUREGIO table for 2017, which will be referred (NUTS‐2 Rev.2016) for all the EU27 + UK + EFTA countries and will be embedded in the new FIGARO multicountry 2017. Such effort was developed in the context of the ESPON‐IRIE project. This article summarises the methodology used and compares the results obtained with the ones of the main benchmarks, providing an analysis of the national and regional participation in the global value chains (GVCs). The main results suggest that, on average, 65% of value added is embodied in the goods and services sold to the same NUTS‐2 region, 16% is embodied in the ones sold to regions in the same country and the remaining 20% is exported (to other countries). Exploring the heterogeneity within these figures can also be seen that the variety is higher across regions than across sectors. Our analysis suggests that, to a large extent, the heterogeneous participation of EU27 + UK + EFTA regions in the GVCs is explained by their sectoral structure more than by the regional idiosyncratic characteristics. Such results open the floor for the correct design of industrial policies, embedded in the smart specialisation paradigm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aims to comprehensively analyze the potential environmental impact of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. To achieve this, a two‐model approach is employed, consisting of a fixed and random effects model covering the period of 1990 to 2021 and a difference‐in‐differences (DID) model focusing on the period of 2014 to 2021. The fixed and random effects model provides insights into long‐term trends and country‐specific effects, while the DID model assesses short‐term changes and estimates causal relationship effects of the AfCFTA by comparing changes in environmental indicators before and after the AfCFTA establishment. Our conclusion is based on the random effect, which was determined to be more appropriate following the Hausman diagnostic test and the DID results. The random effect model results show that GDP increases environmental degradation, whereas GDP squared improves environmental quality. Trade openness and energy consumption improve the region's environmental quality, while foreign direct investment inflows damage the environment. The DID results indicate that the treatment variable (establishment of AfCFTA) has the potential of worsening the environment while the control variable (ECOWAS member) has the potential of improving environmental quality. The interaction variable (treatment × control) enhances environmental quality. The study suggests that the trade agreement has the potential to contribute to sustainable development and environmental protection. Policymakers should seize this opportunity by implementing environmental safeguards, promoting sustainable trade practices, fostering regional collaboration, and ensuring effective monitoring and evaluation mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]