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Understanding the nature of structural change and the sources of economic growth of an economy, especially the relative importance of different industries, is essential for policy-making. This paper estimates industry contribution to economic growth in both Canada and the United States. It argues that industry contribution should be evaluated on the basis of the performance of an industry in terms of creating economic value relative to other industries. In particular, it calls for the quantity and the price effects, which is consistent with real GDP in the chained-Fisher index that values the industry more when its price rises and less when its price declines. This is an important departure from the traditional methodologies that consider only quantity effect. This paper shows that the contribution from demand-driven industries is significantly more than the finding based on traditional thinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Professional forecasters can rely on econometric models, on their personal expertise or on both. To accommodate for adjustments to model forecasts, this paper proposes to use two stage least squares (TSLS) (and not ordinary least squares [OLS]) for the familiar Mincer–Zarnowitz regression when examining bias in professional forecasts, where the instrumental variable is the consensus forecast. An illustration for 15 professional forecasters with their quotes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation and unemployment for the United States documents the usefulness of this new estimation method. It also shows that TSLS suggests less bias than OLS does. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the patterns of government expenditure stimuli among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD) countries during the Great Recession (2007-2009). Overall, we find that the USA net fiscal stimulus was modest relative to peers, despite it being the epicenter of the crisis, and having access to relatively cheap funding of its twin deficits. Of the 28 countries in the sample, the USA is ranked among the bottom third in terms of the rate of expansion of consolidated government consumption and investment expenditures. Contrary to historical experience, emerging markets had strongly countercyclical policy during the period immediately preceding the Great Recession and the Great Recession itself. Federal unions, emerging markets and countries with very high gross domestic product ( GDP) growth during the pre-recession period saw larger net fiscal stimulus on average than their counterparts. We also find that greater net fiscal stimulus was associated with lower flow costs of general government debt in the same or subsequent period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using simulations projecting Chinese economic growth into the future, this paper first examines when China will overtake the USA to become the largest economy. Demographic changes that affect economic growth are taken into consideration in these projections. China is expected to become number one sometime in the mid-2020s, unless its growth rate of gross domestic product per worker declines dramatically, à la the lost decade of Japan. Next, the paper examines whether China becoming the number one economy will mean its currency, the renminbi (RMB), will become the international key currency. According to the basket currency regressions during the period that Chinese currency was gradually appreciating against the US dollar from July 2005 to August 2008, it is shown that the RMB has already acquired a strong influence on the Asian currencies. This shows that the RMB is fast gaining the status of a regional anchor currency for a possible regional joint float. As the Chinese government proceeds with internationalization of its currency, the RMB is expected to gain in the ranking of other aspects of international currency, such as the store of value and the medium of exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Health spending as a percentage of gross domestic product in the U.S. economy is growing, from 5% in 1960 to about 16% in the current period, and it is predicted to grow to as much as 30% in 2050. Then why is the supply of health care in the United States so insensitive to steeply rising prices? This paper conducts an econometric study to show that high health-care costs have an adverse impact on labor productivity, causing a negative production externality in all industries. So, can the rising cost of health-care affect the U.S. comparative advantage? The paper seeks answers to these questions in a general equilibrium model and finds that the labor productivity shock is responsible for the sluggish or declining supply of health care. Consumers are able to afford less health care due to a possible decline in real wages. U.S. comparative advantage becomes a nonissue, provided that the equilibrium is stable in spite of a negatively sloped health-care supply curve. Negative externality, leading to market failure, may be addressed in two alternative ways. ( JEL F11, I11, I12, I18) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the permanent and transitory movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate and the relationships between them. The results suggest that permanent movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate are important for explaining overall fluctuations. Further, the correlation between changes in these series arises in large part due to the relationship between their permanent components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United States spends nearly 1/5th of its GDP on healthcare. Yet, to achieve value‐based care, the Economist describes the US healthcare system as handicapped by multiple, disparate silos that prevent the organization and sharing of data. This paper explores the current state of clinical oncology drug research and its relationship to value‐based cancer care. Clinical Chemotherapy Pathways are proposed as a unifying structure to bring together disparate sources of data to increase value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops an econometric method based on the relationship between GDP and NMP to estimate an unknown Chinese GDP series of 1952-77 using recently available Chinese GDP data of 1978-90 and a reconstructed NMP series of 1952-90. In this manner, a long-term (1952-90) series of China's GDP has been obtained for long-term analyses. A reassessment of Chinese economic performance of 1952-90 using this series suggests that the paper's estimate provides a reasonable reflection of both the Chinese pre-and post-reform economic growth in terms of production structure, growth pattern and policy changes. A series of China's per capita GDP in U.S. dollars which is comparable to the World Bank's estimate for the early 1980s has also been obtained. INSET: EDITOR'S NOTE ON THE EXCHANGE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the rural United States the infant mortality rate (IMR) is 6.5 per 1,000, and in rural states like Alabama this rate jumps to 9.1. Rural obstetric services are disappearing such that over half of U.S. rural counties do not have enough obstetric services. In contrast, Cuba's IMR is 4.3 while spending half as much as a percent of their gross domestic product than the United States. This raises the question: how has Cuba achieved this health outcome and what lessons can be learned and applied in the United States given decreased availability of obstetric services? This paper presents a field case study of one of Cuba's national public health policies. Specifically, we explore Cuba's Hogares Maternos, or maternity homes. We argue that the Cuban model, which focuses on social determinants of health, ought to be explored. We discuss how Hogares Maternos may be adopted and adapted within the rural United States by leveraging existing infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a structural multi-country macroeconometric model to estimate the size of the decrease in transfer payments (or tax expenditures) needed to stabilize the U.S. government debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. It takes into account endogenous effects of changes in fiscal policy on the economy and in turn the effect of changes in the economy on the deficit. A base run is first obtained for the 2013:1-2022:4 period in which there are no major changes in U.S. fiscal policy. This results in an ever increasing debt/GDP ratio. Then transfer payments are decreased by an amount sufficient to stabilize the long-run debt/GDP ratio. The results show that transfer payments need to be decreased by 2% of GDP from the base run, which over the 10 years is $3.2 trillion in 2005 dollars and $4.8 trillion in current dollars. The real output loss is 1.1% of baseline GDP. Monetary policy helps keep the loss down, but it is not powerful enough in the model to eliminate all of the loss. The estimates are robust to a base run with less inflation and to one with less expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia is experiencing its largest mining boom for more than a century and a half. This paper explores, from a national perspective, important economic differences that arise when a mining boom, such as the current one, is generated by sustained export price increases (trading gains) rather than export volume increases. Since 2003, the terms of trade changes - through their direct trading gain effect and indirect real GDP effects - have increased Australian living standards. The increase, measured from official data and relative to the United States, is about 25 per cent; an increase that probably places Australian living standards well above those of the United States. But official data inadequately adjusts for foreign ownership of mining resources suggesting that this estimate is probably a little too high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over 70 academic papers attempt to explain why foreigners invest in US securities. All ignore the vital role of the US broker-dealer. Macroeconomic factors like a trade balance or corporate governance may guide foreign investors toward certain markets. But US broker-dealers provide information to foreign investors and execute the actual trades. We hypothesize that particular foreign investors under-invest in US securities because of a lack of relational capital with US broker-dealers. We find that broker-dealer marketing intensity in foreign markets partly explains foreigners' decisions to invest in US securities. We also estimate 'pent-up' demand for US securities in developing countries - like China, Argentina, Turkey and Russia -equals roughly half-a-trillion dollars. Such pent-up demand - represented as a convergence gap with investment-to-GDP ratios in highly developed capital markets - helps predict which markets these broker-dealers are likely to invest marketing effort in the future. As such, broker-dealers interested in assisting foreign investors find the right securities for their portfolios should not focus on big, rich economies. They should focus on economies with the largest convergence gaps. We also find that broker-dealers must take in account the effect their marketing effort has on the typical variables (like relative returns, risks, asymmetric shocks and communication with the US) when they use these screening variables in deciding where to build their relational capital (and place their sales effort) in any year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the relationship between offshoring and the labor market in an occupational choice model of trade and endogenous growth where workers are employed on the basis of their individual skill levels. Trade liberalization leads to offshoring and reduces employment in the manufacturing sector. Displaced workers move into traditional and innovation sectors according to their skill levels, shaping real wages and aggregate productivity in the manufacturing sector. The paper aims to show how inter-sectoral labor market adjustments, highlighted by skill heterogeneity, could be a possible explanation for the simultaneous rise in productivity and reduction in real wages that have coincided with the sharp escalation of offshoring activities in the U.S. manufacturing sector since 2004. ( JEL F16, F23, J24) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses an autocorrelation function (ACF) approach to develop a new testing procedure for international output convergence. We define convergence in terms of sample ACFs of detrended output per capita, and construct an inference set-up based on resampling and subsampling techniques for dependent data. Using per capita GDP for 15 OECD countries observed over a century, we find that the hypothesis of conditional convergence is unsupported; that, the USA apart, the linearized neoclassical growth model fails to replicate the transitional dynamics of OECD economies; and that these economies do not behave like a club. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article develops a growth-based regionalisation of the United States using both principal components and cluster analyses to endogenously sort states into regional transition clubs with somewhat uniform annual rates of per capita real GSP growth in the period 1977–2004. I correlate the principal components with annual growth in per capita real GDP and assess spatial dependencies in the identified transition clubs. Growth variability in the transition clubs is compared with growth variability in BEA and Census regions. Results show a large Coastal transition club that contains most of the New England, Middle Atlantic, and South Atlantic census regions. California, Minnesota, and Arizona belong to this grouping. A second growth transition club titled Eastern Interior groups most of the states in the East North Central and the East South Central census regions. A Western Interior region groups states in the southern Great Plains. Coefficients of variation show that these three large interstate groupings grow more uniformly compared with associated census and BEA regions. Growth in western states is idiosyncratic. Most western states group with one or two related states, California and Arizona associate with the Coastal club, Nevada does not pigeonhole well with other states, and Alaska's annual growth trajectory is unique. Este artículo desarrolla una regionalización de los Estados Unidos basada en crecimiento usando componentes principales y análisis de cluster para agrupar los estados en grupos de transición regional según tasas anuales de crecimiento más o menos uniformes en el producto estatal bruto (GSP) real per capita en el periodo 1977–2004. Correlaciono los componentes principales con el crecimiento anual en el producto interior bruto (GDP) real per capita y evalúo dependencias espaciales en los grupos de transición identificados. La variabilidad de crecimiento en los grupos de transición se compara con la variabilidad de crecimiento en regiones BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) y Censuales. Los resultados muestran un grupo de transición grande en la Costa que contiene la mayoría de regiones censuales de New England, Atlántico Medio, y Atlántico Sur. California, Minnesota, y Arizona pertenecen a este grupo. Un Segundo grupo de transición de crecimiento llamado Interior Este aglutina la mayoría de estados de las regiones censuales Central Norte Oriental y Central Sur Oriental. Una región Interior Occidental agrupa los estados de las Grandes Llanuras del Sur. Los coeficientes de variación muestran que estos tres grandes grupos interestatales crecen más uniformemente en comparación con las regiones censuales y BEA asociadas. El crecimiento en los estados occidentales es idiosincrásico. La mayoría de los estados occidentales se agrupan con uno o dos estados relacionados, California y Arizona se asocian con el grupo de la Costa, Nevada no se clasifica bien con ningún otro estado, y la trayectoria de crecimiento anual de Alaska es única. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper outlines a class of statistical procedures that permit testing of a broad range of multidimensional stochastic dominance hypotheses and, more generally, welfare hypotheses that rely upon multiple stochastic dominance conditions. We apply the procedures to data on income and leisure hours for individuals in Germany, the UK, and the USA. We find that no country first-order stochastically dominates the others in both dimensions for all years of comparison. Furthermore, while in general the USA stochastically dominates Germany and the UK with respect to income, in most periods Germany stochastically dominates with respect to leisure hours. Finally, we find evidence that bivariate poverty (which refers, for example, to the working poor, that is, those who have little leisure and low income) is lower in Germany than in either the UK or the USA. On the other hand, poverty comparisons between the UK and the USA are sensitive to the subpopulation of individuals considered. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the authors choose to test for sustainability of fiscal policy expressed as the stationarity of the debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. Persistent deficits and increases in public debt in most of OECD countries in the last two decades have motivated a large number of empirical studies devoted to sustainability of fiscal policies. This paper departs from previous empirical studies both in the definition of sustainability and in the econometric approach. The authors retain a notion of effective sustainability, which imposes the stationarity of public debt expressed in terms of GDP as a condition for sustainability. This can be viewed as a practical solvency criterion to be opposed to the satisfaction of the intertemporal budget constraint. Concerning the econometric approach, rather than discarding unit root and cointegration tests, the authors reformulate them in order to increase power. The null hypothesis corresponds to a joint restriction on the two equations of the system. This leads to test jointly for a unit root in the process of the variables of interest and for the nullity of the feedback mechanism in an auxiliary equation.

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic factor model in which estimates for unobserved monthly US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are consistent with observed quarterly data. In contrast to existing approaches, the quarterly averages of our monthly estimates are exactly equal to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) quarterly estimates. The relationship between our monthly estimates and the quarterly data is therefore the same as the relationship between quarterly and annual data. The study makes use of Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo and data augmentation techniques to simulate values for the logarithms on monthly US GDP. The imposition of the exact linear quarterly constraint produces a non-standard distribution, necessitating the implementation of a Metropolis simulation step in the estimation. Our methodology can be easily generalized to cases where the variable of interest is monthly GDP and in such a way that the final results incorporate the statistical uncertainty associated with the monthly GDP estimates. We provide an example by incorporating our monthly estimates into a Markov switching model of the US business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we test the sustainability of U.S. public debt for the period 1916-2012 by analyzing how the primary surplus to gross domestic product ( GDP) responds to changes in the debt to GDP ratio in a time-varying parameter model. Further, we determine the stationarity property of the debt/ GDP ratio while accommodating possible breaks in the data caused by wars and economic crisis under both the null and alternative hypotheses of an endogenous unit root test. The results show that the U.S. public debt was sustainable until 2005 when the primary surplus to GDP reacted negatively to the debt/income ratio. This is further exacerbated during the global financial crisis when primary surpluses continued to fall with increased debt, thus jeopardizing the sustainability of fiscal policy. While the stationarity test shows that the U.S. fiscal debt/ GDP ratio is sustainable, it fails to highlight the risk that its debt policy has been becoming unsustainable in recent years. ( JEL H62, E62, C2) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a detailed bilateral comparison of GDP between China and the U.S. with 1986 as a reference date, using the purchasing power parity (PPP) approach formulated by the United Nations International Comparison Program (ICP). An estimate of PPP over GDP made for Chinese currency in this study was used to estimate China's dollar per capita GDP in 1986 and 1991. The specific issues in the comparisons of the housing and the comparison-resistant services categories were discussed and an approach similar to the estimation of shadow rent was exercised. The possible errors in the bilateral comparison were analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a Bayesian model averaging regression framework for forecasting US inflation, in which the set of predictors included in the model is automatically selected from a large pool of potential predictors and the set of regressors is allowed to change over time. Using real-time data on the 1960-2011 period, this model is applied to forecast personal consumption expenditures and gross domestic product deflator inflation. The results of this forecasting exercise show that, although it is not able to beat a simple random-walk model in terms of point forecasts, it does produce superior density forecasts compared with a range of alternative forecasting models. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis shows that the forecasting results are relatively insensitive to prior choices and the forecasting performance is not affected by the inclusion of a very large set of potential predictors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY This paper examines the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy when the models being compared are overlapping in the sense of Vuong ( Econometrica 1989; 57: 307-333). Two models are overlapping when the true model contains just a subset of variables common to the larger sets of variables included in the competing forecasting models. We consider an out-of-sample version of the two-step testing procedure recommended by Vuong but also show that an exact one-step procedure is sometimes applicable. When the models are overlapping, we provide a simple-to-use fixed-regressor wild bootstrap that can be used to conduct valid inference. Monte Carlo simulations generally support the theoretical results: the two-step procedure is conservative, while the one-step procedure can be accurately sized when appropriate. We conclude with an empirical application comparing the predictive content of credit spreads to growth in real stock prices for forecasting US real gross domestic product growth. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well accepted that a country's GDP may not fully reflect its level of well-being. In recent years, happiness has emerged as an alternative indicator of well-being, and research has mainly focused on determining the level of happiness. While it is important to look at the level, the distribution of happiness is also a salient aspect in any evaluation of inequality. There has been a growing interest in the distribution of happiness, although the ordinal nature of the data makes the use of standard inequality measures problematic. Our paper contributes to the literature by exploring the distributions for the U. S. from 1972 to 2010. Based on new methods developed for ordinal data, we are able to overcome the problems associated with ordinality and obtain unambiguous rankings of happiness distributions. We also compute the level of happiness inequality using existing measures based on median centred approaches. Further, we decompose the median based inequality measures of happiness by gender, race, and region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY One of the major challenges of empirical tax research is the identification and calculation of appropriate tax data. While there is consensus that average marginal tax rates are most suitable for studying the effects of tax policy on economic growth, because of data limitations the calculation of marginal tax rates has been limited to the USA and the UK. This paper provides calculations of average marginal tax rates for the four Scandinavian countries using the methodologies of Seater (1982, 1985) and Barro and Sahasakul (1983, 1986). Then, by pooling the newly calculated tax rates for the Scandinavian countries with the data for the USA and the UK, we investigate the effects of tax policy shocks on the per capita GDP growth rate. Our results suggest that an increase in average marginal tax rates has a negative impact on economic growth. Employing additive mixed panel models with penalized splines as estimation approach, we show that changes in tax rates have nonlinear effects. Increasing average marginal tax rates turn out to be the most distorting at relatively moderate tax rates. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The share of gross domestic product from the service industry reflects the competitiveness of a nation; the service industry in the USA accounts for around 80% of its gross domestic product, and it has been increasing gradually. Continual innovations and advances in enabling technologies for the service industry are crucial for developed countries to sustain their leading positions in the globalized economy. To clarify future research directions of operations research (OR) in the service industry, the state of art of OR has been examined systematically, the new requirements of OR are identified for its applications in service industries in comparison with those in manufacturing industries, and the limitations of existing methodologies and tools have been discussed. This paper was intended to provide an updated review on how OR has been applied in the service sector in recent years and what directions the study of OR will be carried forward in the near future. Under a proposed research framework, recent OR-related articles were collected from 17 leading OR journals and classified into the five most active sectors, that is, transportation and warehousing, information and communication, human health and social assistance, retails and wholesales, and financial and insurance services. The conclusions on the limitations of existing studies and the demanding ORs in the service have been drawn from our summaries and observations from a comprehensive review in this field. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What was hiding behind the aggregate commercial bank loans through the end of 2008? We use balance sheet data for every insured U.S. commercial bank from 1999:Q1 to 2008:Q4 to construct credit expansion and credit contraction series and provide new evidence on changes in lending. Until 2008:Q3 net credit growth was not dissimilar to the 1980 and 2001 recessions. However, between the third and fourth quarter credit contraction grew larger than credit expansion across all types of loans and for the largest banks. With the inclusion of 2008:Q4 data our series most resemble the intensification of the Savings and Loan crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to identify the different sources of persistence of output fluctuations. We propose an unobserved components model that allows us to decompose GDP series into a trend component and a cyclical component. We let the drift of the trend component switch between different regimes according to a first-order Markov process. To calculate an appropriate p-value for a test of linearity we propose a bootstrap procedure, which allows for general forms of heteroscedasticity. The performance of the bootstrap is checked by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. Our study concerns the USA. We find that cyclical shocks appear to play an important role on the observed persistence of output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper evaluates the current account patterns of 69 countries during 1981–2006. We identify an asymmetric effect of the USA as the ‘demander of last resort’: a 1% increase in the lagged US imports/GDP is associated with a 0.3% increase in current account surpluses of countries running surpluses, but results in insignificant changes in the current accounts of countries running deficits. The impact of US demand variables is larger on the current accounts of developing countries than that of OECD countries. We also contemplate China's current account over the next 6 years, and project a large drop in its current account/GDP surpluses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a triple difference approach to assess whether the adoption of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act predicts long-term changes in cross-listing premia of affected foreign firms. I measure cross-listing premia as the difference between the Tobin's q of a cross-listed company and a non-cross-listed company from the same country matched on propensity to cross-list (first difference). I find that average premia for firms cross-listed on levels 2 or 3 (subject to SOX) declined in the year of SOX adoption (2002) and remained significantly below their pre-SOX level through year-end 2005 (second difference). Firms listed on levels 2 or 3, which are subject to SOX, experienced larger declines in premia than firms listed on levels 1 or 4, which are not subject to SOX (third difference). The estimated decline is 0.15–0.20 depending on specification. Riskier firms and firms from high-disclosing and high-GDP countries suffered larger post-SOX declines. Firm size predicts smaller declines in premia in well-governed countries. Faster-growing firms in poorly-governed countries experienced smaller declines in premia. The results are robust to the use of different before-and-after periods; the use of annual, quarterly, or monthly data; the use of individual companies' Tobin's q's instead of matched pairs, and different regression specifications. The overall evidence is consistent with the view that SOX negatively affected cross-listed premia, and particularly hurt riskier firms and firms from well-governed countries, while perhaps helping high-growth firms from poorly-governed countries. At the same time, after-SOX, level-23 firms continue to enjoy a substantial premium, estimated at about 0.32. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically assesses whether monetary policy and its volatility affect real economic activity through their effect on the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy. Analysts typically argue that monetary policy either does not affect the real economy (the classical dichotomy) or only affects the real economy in the short run through aggregate demand (new Keynesian or new classical theories). Real business cycle theorists try to explain the business cycle with supply-side productivity shocks. We provide some preliminary evidence about how monetary policy and its volatility affect the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy through their effect on total factor productivity and its volatility. Total factor productivity provides an important measure of supply-side performance. The results show that monetary policy and its volatility exert a positive and statistically significant effect on the supply side of the macroeconomy. Moreover, the findings buttress the importance of reducing short-run swings in monetary policy variables as well as support the adoption of an optimal money supply rule. Our results also prove consistent with the effective role of monetary policy during the so-called ‘Great Moderation’ in US gross domestic product volatility beginning in the early 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with a reassessment of the money–income relation and predictability of changes in GDP with innovations in money in the presence of barter. Organized barter as a method of transaction, through barter exchanges, has been growing rapidly in the US economy. With the introduction of computers and the use of a credit system which allows non-simultaneous transactions, barter exchanges have found new opportunities to offer an alternative to monetary transactions. Analysis of data from the 1974–96 period provides some evidence suggesting that inclusion of barter in the output function improves the marginal predictability of money. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nonlinear time series models have become fashionable tools to describe and forecast a variety of economic time series. A closer look at reported empirical studies, however, reveals that these models apparently fit well in-sample, but rarely show a substantial improvement in out-of-sample forecasts, at least over linear models. One of the many possible reasons for this finding is the use of inappropriate model selection criteria and forecast evaluation criteria. In this paper we therefore propose a novel criterion, which we believe does more justice to the very nature of nonlinear models. Simulations show that this criterion outperforms those criteria currently in use, in the sense that the true nonlinear model is more often found to perform better in out-of-sample forecasting than a benchmark linear model. An empirical illustration for US GDP emphasizes its relevance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses a new technique for producing high-frequency data from lower frequency measurements subject to the full set of identities within the data all holding. The technique is assessed through a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The example used here is gross domestic product (GDP) which is observed at quarterly intervals in the United States and it is a flow economic variable rather than a stock. The problem of constructing an unobserved monthly GDP variable can be handled using state space modelling. The solution of the problem lies in finding a suitable state space representation. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to illustrate this concept and to identify which variant of the model gives the best monthly estimates. The results demonstrate that the more simple models do almost as well as more complex ones and hence there may be little gain in return for the extra work of using a complex model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does geographic variation in personality across the United States relate to COVID‐19 vaccination rates? To answer this question, we combined multiple state‐level datasets: (a) Big Five personality averages (i.e., extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, and openness; Rentfrow et al., 2008), (b) COVID‐19 full‐vaccination rates (CDC, 2021a), (c) health‐relevant demographic covariates (population density, per capita gross domestic product, and racial/ethnic data; Webster et al., 2021), and (d) political and religiosity data. Analyses showed openness as the strongest correlate of full‐vaccination rates (r = 0.51). Controlling for other traits, demographic covariates, and spatial dependence, openness remained significantly related to full‐vaccination rates (rp = 0.55). Adding political and religiosity data to this model diminished openness effects for full‐vaccination rates to non‐significance (rp = 0.26); however, extraversion emerged as a significant correlate of full‐vaccination rates (rp = 0.37). Although politics are paramount, we suspect that states with higher average openness scores are more conducive to novel thinking and behavior—dispositions that may be crucial in motivating people to take newly‐developed vaccines based on new technologies to confront a novel coronavirus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between stock prices and real estate prices has been the subject of substantial debate in both the academic and practitioner literatures. Existing studies have focused on the time series of stock and real estate returns using data from a single country, such as the U.S. By necessity, these studies examine return and price changes over short intervals, creating a bias when property values are smoothed from year to year. Using data from 17 different countries over 14 years, this paper examines the relation between stock returns and changes in property values and rents. Consistent with other country-specific studies, we find that, with the exception of Japan, the contemporaneous relation between yearly real estate price changes and stock returns is not statistically significant. However, when the data are pooled across countries and when we look at longer measurement intervals, a significant relation between stock returns and both rents and value changes becomes apparent. Real estate prices are also found to be significantly influenced by GDP growth rates and provide a good long-term hedge against inflation but a poor year-to-year hedge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The interest rate and the fiscal balance can be thought of as two independent instruments to be assigned to two targets, the path of output and the path of public debt. Under what we term a ‘sound finance rule’ the interest rate targets output while the fiscal balance targets public debt; under a ‘functional finance rule’ the budget balance targets the output gap and the interest rate targets the debt ratio. The same unique combination of interest rate and fiscal balance will be consistent with output at potential and a constant debt‐GDP ratio regardless of which instrument is assigned to which target. The stability characteristics of the two rules differ, however. At low levels of debt, both rules converge to the targets, but there is a threshold debt level above which only the functional finance rule converges. Contrary to conventional wisdom, therefore, the case for countercyclical fiscal policy becomes stronger, not weaker, when the ratio of public debt to GDP is already high. We apply our framework to describe the possibility of policy‐generated cycles in the United States over the past five decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the literature on measurement error in the major US price indexes -- the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (RPI), and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) deflators. We take as our point of departure Triplett's, 1975, survey and focus on the studies of measurement error that have appeared since then. We review the problems of substitution bias, quality bias, new goods bias, and outlet substitution bias that are generally considered to be the main sources of error in price indexes. The bulk of the paper is devoted to problems in the CPI and PPI, as the GDP deflators tend to be based mainly on the components of these series. We find that there has been surprisingly little work on the problem of overall measurement error in any of these price indexes, and we conclude that there is very little scientific basis for the commonly accepted notion that measured inflation at 2 to 3 percent a year is consistent with price stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT We reveal evidence that the US aggregate bank dividends exercise a causal impact on the US real GDP growth during the period from the introduction of the Prompt Corrective Action framework in 1992 until the outburst of the subprime mortgage market crisis in 2007. Over this period, the positive signalling effects of bank dividends outperform the negative effect of dividends on default risk. During the pre-Prompt Corrective Action and the recent post-2007 periods, bank dividends do not affect GDP growth. This regime-dependent relation is due to an asymmetric role of bank default risk. These findings are of interest to bank regulators in reassessing the role of bank dividends within Basel III and carry important policy implications as bank dividends constitute an important tool available to policy makers for strengthening real activity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's international trade flows have increased by 500 per cent since 1992, far outstripping GDP growth. Likewise tertiary education enrolments have increased by 300 per cent. We simulate these changes using a multi-sector growth model of the Chinese and USA economies. A decade of trade biased growth in China is found to raise USA GDP by approximately 3-4.5 percentage points and has a large impact on the demand for tertiary education in China. Despite these positive effects of growth, the results suggest that the expansion of China's education sector per se has practically no long-run impact on the USA economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

) seminal model of structural change predicts that large service industries financed mainly through taxes and social contributions-like health care and education, for instance-will acquire ever-larger shares of total expenditures and that, concomitantly, overall productivity growth will decline. Applying a new testing strategy for Baumol's model, ) finds strong evidence in favor of the 'cost and growth diseases' in U.S. GDP-by-industry data (published by the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis). The aim of the present paper is twofold. The first is to check whether Nordhaus's results can be reproduced using U.S. industry data from the EU KLEMS database. Second, Nordhaus's testing methodology is applied to European Union data from the same database. The results suggest that-although there are differences vis-à-vis the U.S.-the EU also shows symptoms of 'Baumol's diseases.' [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic debate about the consequences of immigration in the United States has largely focused on how influxes of foreign-born labor with little educational attainment have affected similarly educated native-born workers. Fewer studies analyze the effect of immigration within the market for highly educated labor. We use O*NET data on job characteristics to assess whether native-born workers with graduate degrees respond to an increased presence of highly educated foreign-born workers by choosing new occupations with different skill content. We find that highly educated native and foreign-born workers are imperfect substitutes. Immigrants with graduate degrees specialize in occupations demanding quantitative and analytical skills, whereas their native-born counterparts specialize in occupations requiring interactive and communication skills. When the foreign-born proportion of highly educated employment within an occupation rises, native employees with graduate degrees choose new occupations with less analytical and more communicative content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the impact of fiscal policy shocks in the euro area as a whole, using a newly-available quarterly data set of fiscal variables for the period 1981–2007. To allow for comparability with previous results on euro-area countries and the US, we use a standard structural vector autoregressive (VAR) framework, and study the impact of aggregated and disaggregated government spending and net-tax shocks. In addition, to frame euro-area results, we apply the same methodology for the same sample period to US data. We also explore the sensitivity of the results to the inclusion of variables aiming to control for underlying financial and fiscal conditions. The main new findings are that: expansionary fiscal shocks have a short-term positive impact on GDP and private consumption, with government spending shocks entailing, in general, higher effects on economic activity than (net) tax reductions; output multipliers to government expenditure shocks are of similar size in the euro area and in the US; the persistence of a fiscal spending shock is higher in the US than in the euro area, which appears to be related to military spending in the US; and fiscal multipliers have increased over the recent past in both geographical areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of the predictive ability of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book for aggregate output and employment have proven inconclusive. This might be attributed, in part, to its irregular release schedule. We use a model that allows for data sampling at mixed frequencies to analyze the predictive power of the Beige Book. We find that the Beige Book's national summary and District reports predict GDP and aggregate employment and that most District reports provide information content for regional employment. In addition, there appears to be an asymmetry in the predictive content of the Beige Book language. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use counterfactual experiments to investigate the sources of the large volatility reduction in US real GDP growth in the 1980s. Contrary to an existing literature that conducts counterfactual experiments based on classical estimation and point estimates, we consider Bayesian analysis that provides a straightforward measure of estimation uncertainty for the counterfactual quantity of interest. Using Blanchard and Quah's (1989) structural VAR model of output growth and the unemployment rate, we find strong statistical support for the idea that a counterfactual change in the size of structural shocks alone, with no corresponding change in the propagation of these shocks, would have produced the same overall volatility reduction as what actually occurred. Looking deeper, we find evidence that a counterfactual change in the size of aggregate supply shocks alone would have generated a larger volatility reduction than a counterfactual change in the size of aggregate demand shocks alone. We show that these results are consistent with a standard monetary VAR, for which counterfactual analysis also suggests the importance of shocks in generating the volatility reduction, but with the counterfactual change in monetary shocks alone generating a small reduction in volatility. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the consistency or conflict in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) agricultural trade and aid policies in the U.S. Study shows that the negative effects of agricultural aid on growth in measured agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) per worker outbalance the positive effects. It was found out that the estimated aid coefficients are negative and statistically significant. This negative aid effect could be attributed to induced reductions in local market prices of commodities whose production increases as a consequence of aid. On the other hand, the strong positive effect of the degree of overlap between a developing country's crop planting patterns.

To what extent can information-technology led improvements in inventory management account for the apparent moderation of economic fluctuations in the United States since the mid-1980s? We argue that changes in inventory dynamics played a reinforcing—rather than a leading—role in the reduction of output volatility. Since the mid-1980s, inventory dynamics have changed in a manner consistent with a faster resolution of inventory imbalances. However, these changes appear to be a consequence of changes in the response of industry-level sales and aggregate economic activity to monetary policy shocks. Our results suggest that it is the interaction between the changes in inventory behavior at the industry level and the macroeconomic environment—where the latter likely includes changes in the conduct of monetary policy and the responses of the economy to policy disturbances—rather than any single factor, that has contributed importantly to the observed decline in economic volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we use a dynamic general equilibrium model of an open economy to assess the quantitative effects of fiscal shocks on the trade balance in the United States. We examine the effects of two alternative fiscal shocks: a rise in government consumption, and a reduction in the labour income tax rate. Our salient finding is that a fiscal deficit has a relatively small effect on the US trade balance, irrespective of whether the source is a spending increase or tax cut. In our benchmark calibration, we find that a rise in the fiscal deficit of 1 percentage point of gross domestic product (GDP) induces the trade balance to deteriorate by 0.2 percentage point of GDP or less. Noticeably larger effects are only likely to be elicited under implausibly high values of the short-run trade price elasticity, or of the share of liquidity-constrained households in the economy. From a policy perspective, our analysis suggests that even reducing the current US fiscal deficit (of 3% of GDP) to zero would be unlikely to narrow the burgeoning US trade deficit significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focuses on the application of panel unit root tests to international real gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States. Nonstationarity of macroeconomic variables; Empirical analyses using unit root tests; Citation on the data sets used in real GDP per capita panels.

We compute steady‐state economic growth—defined as the rate of growth that the economy would converge to in the absence of new shocks. As we show, this rate can be computed in real‐time by means of a parsimonious time‐varying parameter (TVP) vector autoregression model. Our procedure offers a relatively agnostic estimation of benchmark equilibrium growth rates. Estimates show that the steady‐state gross domestic product growth rate in the case of the United States has declined from just above 3% per year in the 1990s to 2.4% at present. Results for other six advanced economies and the euro area indicate that the steady‐state growth rate, which is consistent with stable inflation and financial conditions, has been relatively stable since 2010 in most cases in spite of a recent slowdown in actual GDP growth rates. In contrast, per capita steady‐state growth rates during the last decade were typically lower than in the 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Respiratory disease remains one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Objectives: In this study, we aimed to compare the quantity and quality of scientific publications in the field of respirology from the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada and China. Methods: Articles published in 58 respiratory journals from 2007 to 2017 were screened with Science Citation Index Expanded database. The number of total and annual articles, article types, impact factor (IF), h‐index, citations and articles in the high‐impact journals from the corresponding country were collected for quantity and quality comparisons. The correlation of socioeconomic factors and annual publications was also analysed. Results: A total of 93078 articles were published worldwide in respiratory journals from 2007 to 2017. The United States contributed the largest proportion (34399 (37.0%)), followed by the United Kingdom (9494 (10.2%)), Germany (6918 (7.4%)) and Canada (6574 (7.1%)). Publications from China represented the 6th, but this quantity is rapidly increasing. The United States occupies the dominant place in all kinds of article types under investigation in the study, except in the category of meta‐analysis. For total and average citations, China still lags behind the other 4 countries in the study. The annual numbers of articles from China, Canada and the United States were positively correlated with gross domestic product (P < 0.05). Conclusions: The United States has played predominant role in respiratory research for the last 11 years. Although China has made great progress in the number of published articles over the past decade, the quality of these publications needs further improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]