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Aim: Research on population genetic patterns and potential distribution dynamics can provide insights into the development of pest management strategies. Herein, we integrated population genetic analyses with the climatic niche approach to investigate spatial population genetic variations and potential geographical distribution (PGD) of the herbivorous pest Phytomyza horticola. We also analysed its population response patterns to both late Pleistocene climatic events and future climate change. Location: China. Methods: We analysed the patterns of genetic diversity distribution in 29 populations from 19 regions across China using three mitochondrial (COI, COII and Cytb) genes as markers. We estimated demographic histories using neutrality tests, mismatch distributions and Bayesian skyline plots. Changes in PGD were assessed using an ecological niche model. Results: High genetic diversity was found in most populations, and the northern population exhibited higher haplotype diversity. The population genetic structure included the Tibet lineage and a large lineage comprising the remaining populations. Demographic analyses indicated that rapid population expansion occurred during the cold Last Glacial Maximum. In addition, our projections suggested that P. horticola currently has a vast PGD in China, for which the human influence index was the strongest variable. Large areas of cold northern regions were highly suitable for its survival. Under future global warming, highly suitable habitats will shift towards the higher latitudes. Main conclusions: P. horticola is widely distributed across varied environments, which may be attributed to its high degree of genetic variation. Human activities likely facilitated the current PGD and the frequent gene flow that homogenized differentiation among most populations. In addition, P. horticola exhibits strong adaptability to cold climates and environments from the past to the future. Considering future climatic changes, prevention and control should focus on high‐latitude regions, and vigilance regarding human‐mediated pest dispersals and outbreaks should be maintained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding future dry and wet changes under global climate change is of great regional significance in China. Based on six Global Climate Models (GCM) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), we project the changes of dry‐wet climate regions in China in the 21st century under the three SSP‐RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway‐representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5), and further identify the key climatic factors that lead to the transition of dry‐wet climate regions. The results show the area of humid and subhumid regions in China will show an upward trend in the future, while the area of semiarid and arid regions will show a downward trend. Especially under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario, the area of the subhumid region has the largest increase trend (0.042% per year), and the area of the arid region has the largest decline trend (−0.048% per year). The three main transfer directions of dry‐wet climate regions are from arid to semiarid regions, from semiarid to subhumid regions, and from subhumid to humid regions in the future. Due to the future extensive wetting trend in the north, the future dry‐wet climate regions will shift to wetter types in Tibet, North China, the Qinling‐Huaihe regions and the northeast. In addition, the key climatic factors for the transition of dry‐wet climate regions are mainly precipitation, maximum temperature and solar radiation. The increase of precipitation plays a dominant role for areas projected to change to wetter types, and the increase of potential evapotranspiration (PET) plays a dominant role for areas projected to change to drier types. The PET changes in changed areas of dry‐wet climate regions are mainly dominated by maximum temperature and solar radiation. Our research has important implications for future water resource management and reconsideration of climate mitigation and adaptation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the effect of climate change on runoff from a cold Glacier in Tibet. Runoff from cold glaciers involves no temporal storage in cold glacier ice, but does manifest refreezing of meltwater. The paper applies a numerical mass-balance model to data recorded in the the Tanggula Mountains during the 1990s. Figures show meltwater freezing plays a nontrivial role in glacial runoff, and that studies treating meltwater and runoff water as equivalent err in doing so. Also, decreased precipitation increases glacial runoff.

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important factors influencing hydrologic and climatic quantities, and increases in ETo are often considered as a primary cause for drying under global warming scenarios. Based on bias‐corrected data from the Half a degree Additional Warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) experiment, we investigated changes in ETo and drying across the Yellow River Basin (YRB) for 1.5°C and 2°C stabilized warming, relative to the current decade (2006–2015). We used changes in the climatic water deficit (WD: defined as precipitation (P) minus (ETo) to determine drying and wetting trends. Results projected that mean annual ETo would increase significantly over the whole YRB, under 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios, with an increase of 4.54% (1.57–7.59% full uncertainty range) and 7.66% (4.49–10.61%), at 1.5°C and 2°C, respectively, averaged over the YRB for the multi‐model mean. It is unclear whether the YRB source region (the NE region of the Tibet Plateau) would be drier or wetter under 1.5°C and 2°C of warming, although it is likely that the N regions of the YRB, and the whole YRB except for the source region will be drier under 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios, respectively. With an additional 0.5°C warming, further intensification of drying is projected in the whole YRB, resulting from a more pronounced increase in ETo, and lesser increase/decrease in P. The increased ETo projected under a 0.5°C additional warming was mainly attributed to rising maximum temperatures (tasmax). These results highlight the importance of ETo, in terms of potential future YRB drying, and our study suggests that limiting future warming to 1.5°C would impact regional drying the least. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important factors influencing hydrologic and climatic quantities, and increases in ETo are often considered as a primary cause for drying under global warming scenarios. Based on bias‐corrected data from the Half a degree Additional Warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) experiment, we investigated changes in ETo and drying across the Yellow River Basin (YRB) for 1.5°C and 2°C stabilized warming, relative to the current decade (2006–2015). We used changes in the climatic water deficit (WD: defined as precipitation (P) minus (ETo) to determine drying and wetting trends. Results projected that mean annual ETo would increase significantly over the whole YRB, under 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios, with an increase of 4.54% (1.57–7.59% full uncertainty range) and 7.66% (4.49–10.61%), at 1.5°C and 2°C, respectively, averaged over the YRB for the multi‐model mean. It is unclear whether the YRB source region (the NE region of the Tibet Plateau) would be drier or wetter under 1.5°C and 2°C of warming, although it is likely that the N regions of the YRB, and the whole YRB except for the source region will be drier under 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios, respectively. With an additional 0.5°C warming, further intensification of drying is projected in the whole YRB, resulting from a more pronounced increase in ETo, and lesser increase/decrease in P. The increased ETo projected under a 0.5°C additional warming was mainly attributed to rising maximum temperatures (tasmax). These results highlight the importance of ETo, in terms of potential future YRB drying, and our study suggests that limiting future warming to 1.5°C would impact regional drying the least. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The selection of general circulation models (GCMs) with high capability to represent the past and likely future climate for a specific geographical location is a crucial step to assess impacts of climate change on different sectors. This study included pool of 105 and 78 GCMs for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5, applied an advanced envelope‐based selection approach to select representative GCMs for the Koshi river basin in China and Nepal at short‐term (2016–2045), mid‐century (2036–2065) and end‐of‐century (2071–2100) periods, and developed range of possible future precipitation and temperature scenarios with high resolution downscaled data (10 × 10 km2), which is the novelty contribution of the study. Considering RCP4.5, average annual precipitation is expected to increase by 0–16%, 4–23% and 4–24% in the short‐term, mid‐century and end‐of‐century periods, respectively. Using RCP8.5, equivalent predictions are 6–20%, 6–36% and 13–49% in the short‐term, mid‐century and end‐of‐century periods, respectively. Average annual temperature is expected to increase, but with higher increases during winter than in the monsoon period. Considering RCP4.5, average annual temperature is expected to increase by 1–1.4°C, 1.3–1.9°C and 1.6–2.8°C in the short‐term, mid‐century and end‐of‐century periods, respectively. Similarly, using RCP8.5, equivalent predictions are 1–1.6°C, 1.8–2.9°C and 3.1–5.6°C in the short‐term, mid‐century and end‐of‐century periods, respectively. The ensemble mean of absolute change in average precipitation and temperature projects that High Himalaya and Tibet regions are more sensitive to climate change considering precipitation and temperature, respectively. The results also suggest that GCMs selection for a catchment varies with climate scenarios and specific future time periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbes play key roles in various biogeochemical processes, including carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling. However, changes of microbial community at the functional gene level by livestock grazing, which is a global land-use activity, remain unclear. Here we use a functional gene array, GeoChip 4.0, to examine the effects of free livestock grazing on the microbial community at an experimental site of Tibet, a region known to be very sensitive to anthropogenic perturbation and global warming. Our results showed that grazing changed microbial community functional structure, in addition to aboveground vegetation and soil geochemical properties. Further statistical tests showed that microbial community functional structures were closely correlated with environmental variables, and variations in microbial community functional structures were mainly controlled by aboveground vegetation, soil C/N ratio, and NH4+-N. In-depth examination of N cycling genes showed that abundances of N mineralization and nitrification genes were increased at grazed sites, but denitrification and N-reduction genes were decreased, suggesting that functional potentials of relevant bioprocesses were changed. Meanwhile, abundances of genes involved in methane cycling, C fixation, and degradation were decreased, which might be caused by vegetation removal and hence decrease in litter accumulation at grazed sites. In contrast, abundances of virulence, stress, and antibiotics resistance genes were increased because of the presence of livestock. In conclusion, these results indicated that soil microbial community functional structure was very sensitive to the impact of livestock grazing and revealed microbial functional potentials in regulating soil N and C cycling, supporting the necessity to include microbial components in evaluating the consequence of land-use and/or climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that climate change alters abiotic factors (temperature and water availability) that directly affect ecosystem properties. However, less is known about the indirect impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and function. Here, we show that experimental warming may deteriorate ecosystems via trophic interactions. In a Tibetan alpine meadow, plant species composition, size, coverage and above-ground biomass were investigated to reveal the effect of artificial warming ( c. 1 °C mean annual temperature at the soil surface), which was accomplished using warmed and ambient open top chambers. In addition, rodent damage to plants was assessed. The dicot forb silverweed Potentilla anserina increased significantly, while other species groups remained unchanged or decreased in plant community dominance rank after 2 years of artificial warming. The change in community structure was attributed to the difference in biomass allocation and growth form among species. In the third year, plateau zokors Myospalax fontanierii, a widespread rodent herbivore, damaged plants in the warmed chambers, while leaving plants in the ambient chambers mostly undamaged. Above-ground biomass was found to be smaller in the warmed chambers than the controls in the third year, in contrast to the trend of the first 2 years. In addition, zokor burrow density was positively correlated with silverweed biomass and its dominance within communities, which was consistent with findings of independent field investigations that silverweed-dominated plots were more likely to be visited and damaged by the zokors than sites-dominated by grass species. Synthesis and applications. The top-down negative effect of zokor damage on above-ground biomass in the warmed chambers was induced by the bottom-up effect of changes in species composition and community structure on zokor foraging behaviour, which were driven by artificial warming. Such trophic interactions may invalidate some predictions of ecological effects by current species-climate envelope models. Furthermore, because management measures including increasing the water table, planting grass and moderate cattle grazing may prevent silverweed dominance, we suggest that these interventions could be employed to control zokor damage in alpine meadows that are predicted to be drier and warmer in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological mismatches due to climate change may have important ecological consequences. In a three-year study, phenological shifts due to experimental warming markedly altered trophic relationships between plants and insect herbivores, causing a dramatic decline of reproductive capacity for one of the plant species. In a Tibetan meadow, the gentian (Gentiana formosa) typically flowers after the peak larva density of a noctuid moth (Melanchra pisi) that primarily feeds on a dominant forb (anemone, Anemone trullifolia var. linearis). However, artificial warming of ~1.5°C advanced gentian flower phenology and anemone vegetative phenology by a week, but delayed moth larvae emergence by two weeks. The warming increased larval density 10-fold, but decreased anemone density by 30%. The phenological and density shifts under warmed conditions resulted in the insect larvae feeding substantially on the gentian flowers and ovules; there was ~100-fold more damage in warmed than in unwarmed chambers. This radically increased trophic connection reduced gentian plant reproduction and likely contributed to its reduced abundance in the warmed chambers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Premise of the study: Little is known about the effect of environmental conditions on seed dormancy break at the community level or how it could be affected by climate change. This study tested the effects of storage conditions on germination of 489 species from high-elevation natural grasslands on the Tibet Plateau. • Methods: We stored seeds in dry cold, dry warm, and wet cold environments to test the effect of these conditions on germination. Germination responses were classified with the use of cluster analysis. The effect of phylogeny on germination response to storage conditions was determined. • Key results: Compared with results of wet cold conditions, storing seeds at dry warm or dry cold conditions decreased the mean community germination percentage by 17.93% and 16.07%, respectively. Storing seeds at dry warm vs. dry cold conditions decreased the community mean germination percentage by 4.61%. The germination response to moisture conditions during storage showed significant phylogenetic patterns, whereas the germination response to storage temperature did not. On the basis of the germinability of seeds of the same species stored under different conditions, germination may increase, decrease, or stay the same. • Conclusions: Within the high-elevation Tibetan grassland community, the different responses in dormancy breaking and germination behavior to the same storage conditions may have implications for understanding how this community might respond to climate change, in particular, some species may increase in the community, whereas others may decrease or remain the same. However, the potential for such change can be detected only by studying the responses of many species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]