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The rise in the Earth's global average surface temperature and the increase of extreme weather events have been the focus of scientific discussion in the last decades. Extreme heat combined with other environmental extremes, like high concentrations of air pollution, may induce health problems—especially in socioeconomically vulnerable populations. Spring in South America requires particular attention due to its association with hot, dry weather and air pollution in most parts of the continent. This paper intends to better comprehend the behaviour of heatwaves during the austral winter–spring transition. We propose identifying the spatial coverage, frequency and intensity of heatwaves in homogeneous areas of maximum air temperature near the surface (Tmax). We employed cluster analyses during the period between July and October for 41 years (1979–2019) through the ERA5 reanalysis. Homogeneous Tmax areas in South America were defined by cluster analyses that indicated three homogeneous Tmax regions, as follows: a larger area of the continent including the tropical region (Area 1), eastern and southeastern South America (Area 2) and southernmost and steep areas in the Andes (Area 3). The heatwave events identified via ERA5 reanalysis were classified according to their intensity (intense, moderate and weak events). Spatial frequency and trend analyses were also performed regarding the intensity and persistence of heatwave episodes. These methods allowed the identification of the behavioural aspect of heatwaves spanning the last four decades. The Mann–Kendall statistical test (MK) was applied in order to analyse the heatwave trend with a statistical significance level of 5%. A total of 191 heatwave episodes were identified. Of this total, 47.12, 35.60 and 17.28% of episodes occurred in Areas 2, 3 and 1, respectively. The hotter area extending from northeast to southwest in central South America stood out by its largest frequencies of intense heatwave episodes. Across the continent there was a significant increase in the intensity and persistence of heatwaves over the period of 1979 through to 2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper tests if the two La Niña (LN) types can be distinguished from each other using their climate impacts on northeastern Brazil (NEB). To this end, all LN events during the 1901–2010 period followed by a wet or dry rainy season (from February to April) in NEB are classified into two categories: WET‐LN and DRY‐LN. The global and regional anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns and the rainfall anomaly patterns in South America associated with the two cases are analysed. The WET‐LN and DRY‐LN events present, respectively, the eastern Pacific LN and central Pacific LN sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly features in the tropical Pacific. On the other hand, the WET‐LN features an interhemispheric SST dipole pattern in the tropical Atlantic, and the DRY‐LN, colder‐than‐normal surface waters in the tropical South Atlantic (TSA) and equatorial Atlantic during MAM(+1). The two analysed cases show regional differential circulation patterns in all seasons. The anomalous wetness over northern and northwestern South America occurs for the WET‐LN type during JJA(0)–DJF(+1) and for the DRY‐LN type, during DJF(+1)–MAM(+1). The anomalous dryness over SESA is more evident for the WET‐LN during JJA(0) and MAM(+1), and for the DRY‐LN, during SON(0). Anomalous dryness occurs in central and eastern South America noted during JJA(0) and DJF(+1) for both cases analysed. The precipitation anomalies in northern South America during DJF(+1) are stronger and more extensive for the DRY‐LN than for the WET‐LN events due to the action of both the anomalous (double) Walker and Hadley cells for the DRY‐LN, in contrast with the exclusive action of an anomalous Walker cell for the WET‐LN case. Also, a double Walker cell drives the dry–wet dipole between northern South America and NEB during MAM(+1) for the DRY‐LN. Our results might be useful mainly for climate monitoring purposes. The two La Niña (LN) types were distinguished from each other using their climate impacts on northeastern Brazil (NEB) and classified in two categories WET‐LN (LN events followed by a wet rainy season in NEB) and DRY‐LN (LN events followed by a dry rainy season in NEB) that present, respectively, the eastern Pacific LN and central Pacific LN sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly features in the tropical Pacific. The illustration shows the LN‐related SST and precipitation anomaly patterns evolutions associated with the two LN types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a microeconometric analysis of adapting portfolios in response to climate change using information on South American farmers' adoption of agricultural systems taken from approximately 2,000 household surveys. The results show that farmers in a hotter climate prefer a mixed system over specialized systems either in crops or livestock. Under a hot and dry scenario, the land values of all three systems would fall, but the damage would be much smaller in the mixed system (−10%) than for the farms specializing in crops (−20%). Farmers are predicted to lose 8% of their land's value under the Canadian Climatic Center (CCC) scenario, but only 2% under the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Losses would increase to 18% if they do not adapt. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Aim Species richness depends on climate and land use. Maintaining locations with favourable climate and land-use patterns is critical for protecting biodiversity because the loss of either can reduce the species richness that an area supports. Currently, the Guiana Shield (GS) receives abundant precipitation and has relatively light land use. For species richness this constitutes a good–good combination of climate and land use, respectively. In contrast, much of eastern Brazil receives low levels of precipitation and has heavy land use, which is a bad–bad combination for species richness. Thus, the current distribution of precipitation and land use in northern South America is relatively favourable for biodiversity. Palaeoclimate and model studies suggest, however, that the precipitation patterns for the two regions have switched before and could switch in response to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper examines the potential consequences of reconfiguring climate with respect to existing land-use patterns using South America as an example. Location South America north of 20° S and east of the Andes. Methods Ecosystem structure and function are modelled under (1) historical climate and (2) altered precipitation following a shift in the location of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The distribution of precipitation, biomes, net primary productivity (NPP) and land use are then used to predict levels of species richness under the two climate scenarios. Results Climate changes could shift the distribution of vegetation and NPP such that conditions favourable for species richness in the GS region disappear. If land-use patterns were not prohibitive in eastern Brazil, the improved climate conditions there could compensate for the GS loss (assuming migratory barriers are overcome). Instead, existing land-use patterns cause the combined species richness projected for the two regions to plummet. Main conclusions Human activities will alter current configurations of land use and climate throughout the world. For species richness, new configurations are likely to include both positive and negative combinations of climate and land use. However, the irreversibility of past extinctions due to land-use patterns loads the dice against species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Climate change has the potential to have an impact on the distribution of ticks and tick-borne diseases. This paper identifies the changes in climate suitability for the tick Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus in the Americas by analysing climate data for the period 1950–99. Location The model was applied to the American continent. Methods A model based on Environmental Niche Modelling was used on a gridded (0.5°) long-term (1950–99) climate data set. A map of the core range of the species was constructed, and areas where habitat suitability (HS) changes suddenly over short time periods were identified as regions of high sensitivity. Tendency of climate in the continent was evaluated and scenarios constructed for 2025 and 2050. Results Regions of high sensitivity included the southern USA, Mexico and western and central Argentina. Analysis of climate variables in these regions identified water vapour pressure deficit and evaporation as underlying the high sensitivity of habitat suitability in the USA and Mexico, and showed that episodes of high variability are linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Projections of the tendency of HS as observed for the 1950–99 period point to an increase in this value in parts of the southern USA and in central Argentina, a finding that can be attributed to the progressive increase in minimum and yearly averaged temperatures. Conclusions Short-term changes in climate may drive the system into unstable situations with sudden changes in habitat suitability for the target tick in specific zones of the Americas. Results suggest an increased abiotic (climate) suitability for R. microplus in areas whose habitat is currently unsuitable for this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper analyses the influence of different types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) events on South American precipitation under a climate change scenario. We use two sub-selections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models that have a good representation of teleconnections to the region, albeit with reduced magnitude anomalies. Comparing historical simulations and the RCP 8.5 scenario experiments, after removing the trend in the mean due climate change, the sub-ensemble means show similar global sea surface temperature anomalies and South American precipitation anomaly patterns in the future. No robust changes in the pattern or magnitude of precipitation anomalies are found, despite significant ENSO-related shifts in the Pacific basin, as highlighted in other studies. However, if the models are analysed individually, some show relatively strong changes in ENSO-related precipitation anomalies for both canonical and Modoki events. We show that, in individual models, tropical teleconnection changes associated with ENSO are primarily driven by changes in the magnitude of ENSO-related circulation but with no agreement on the sign. Increases in background moisture, which have been hypothesized to drive an intensification of ENSO-related precipitation anomalies, are of secondary importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In tropical regions, particularly in Central and South America (CSA), the projections of climate seasonality under climate change are still uncertain. This is especially true for ecologically‐relevant variables such as precipitation and temperature. However, assessments of model‐based projections of seasonal climate for this region are scarce. We analyzed the simulation of seasonal precipitation and air surface temperature in CSA and six sub‐regions within from 49 models included in the Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and 33 models from CMIP6. In general, continental patterns and seasonality of both variables are moderately well resembled, while most models show systematic biases over the oceans, producing unrealistic spatial patterns. To quantify how well CMIP5/CMIP6 models simulate these variables, we used Taylor diagrams with respect to TRMM for precipitation and ERA5 for temperature. Precipitation shows the largest spread among models. Conversely, temperature shows a better simulation. CMIP5/CMIP6 models exhibit a better performance simulating both variables during December–January–February and March–April–May than during the other seasons. This is partly due to the reduced model biases in representing the Intertropical Convergence Zone during these two seasons. In general, biases are reduced in the CMIP6 models with respect to CMIP5. Regarding regional evaluations, precipitation patterns for Mesoamerica, Cerrado and Chaco regions are better reproduced compared to TRMM, while the annual cycles for the Andes hotspot, Central Chile and Guianas are not well simulated, mainly during their wet seasons. However, these biases are reduced in CMIP6 models. In regard to precipitation projections, models only agree over most of the regions with decreasing precipitation. Conversely, temperature exhibits a general consensus on persistent warming even during the historical period, with an average increase of 6°C by the end of the century, according to the CMIP6 models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature extreme indices were analyzed for five continental regions of southern South America defined according to their climatic characteristics. Gridded observations, reanalysis, and global‐coupled climate models from CMIP5 were used with the approach of temperature extreme trend attribution analysis on fixed‐threshold and percentile‐based temperature extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The largest positive trends are exhibited in the tropical nights index, and a clear anthropogenic signal is evident in the subtropical region. In the subtropical central Andes, there is a decrease in the frost days index and increases in the tropical nights and summer days indices, and an anthropogenic signal is evident. In the Patagonian region, all trends from the historical runs were significant, while the ones from the natural experiment were nonsignificant, showing the marked effect of anthropogenic forcing in this region in the extreme temperature events. Projected changes in extreme indices for the 21st century are consistent with a warming climate, and larger changes are expected in the warm nights index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents results from an assessment of climate change projections over South America using fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models. Change in near‐surface temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, integrated water vapour transport (IVT), sea level pressure (SLP), and wind at three pressure levels is quantified across the multi‐model suite. Additionally, model agreement for the sign and significance of projected change is assessed within the ensemble. Models are in strong agreement that the highest magnitude of projected warming will be over tropical regions. The CMIP5 models project a decrease in precipitation for all seasons over southern South America, especially along the northern portions of the present‐day mid‐latitude storm track. This is consistent with a robustly projected poleward shift of the Pacific extratropical high‐pressure system and mid‐latitude storm track indicated by a systematic increase in SLP and decrease in westerly wind magnitude over the region. Decreased precipitation for the months of September, October, and November is also projected, with strong model agreement, over portions of northern and northeastern Brazil, coincident with decreases in SLP and increases in evapotranspiration. IVT is broadly projected to decrease over southern South America, coincident with the projected poleward shift of the mid‐latitude storm track, with increases projected in the vicinity of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone in spring and summer. Results provide a comprehensive picture of climate change across South America and highlight where model consensus on change is most robust. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to assess the ability of a set of large ensembles (LE) of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations from the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change in reproducing the variability and change of the austral summer precipitation observed in South America along the second part of the 20th century and beginning of the 21st. LE show similar biases in the mean austral summer rainfall and interannual variability than those detected in previous model sets, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The positive trends in south‐eastern South America (SESA) and negative ones in the southern Andes (SAn), that are the most significant observed regional features, are identified to some extent in LE simulations. The negative trend in SAn is a feature consistently shown among different models. For all models, mean trend is negative in that particular region and larger than the inter‐member dispersion for each large ensemble. Trend magnitudes in the SESA region show a larger dispersion between models than the SAn region. While the mean trend among models is consistent with the observations, models underestimate the observed trend. The multi‐model ensemble of selected models that best reproduce both mean and interannual variability features of rainfall in South America shows an 18% larger positive mean trend in SESA rainfall than those that have the worst performance. However, internal variability uncertainty is still higher than the mean trend for both sets of multi‐model ensembles [5% (18%) for selected (non‐selected) models]. Improvements in the representation of the main features of mean rainfall and variability are needed in order to better describe and reduce the uncertainties associated with the main climate change related signals in the continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of biota at lower latitudes may presage impacts of climate change on biota at higher latitudes. Macroinvertebrate assemblages in depressional wetlands may be especially sensitive to climate change because weather‐related precipitation and evapotranspiration are dominant ecological controls on habitats, and organisms of depressional wetlands are temperature‐sensitive ectotherms. We aimed to better understand how wetland macroinvertebrate assemblages were structured according to geography and climate. To do so, we contrasted aquatic‐macroinvertebrate assemblage structure (family level) between subtropical and temperate depressional wetlands of North and South America using presence–absence data from 264 of these habitats across the continents and more‐detailed relative‐abundance data from 56 depressional wetlands from four case‐study locations (North Dakota and Georgia in North America; southern Brazil and Argentinian Patagonia in South America). Both data sets roughly partitioned wetland numbers equally between the two climatic zones and between the continents. We used ordination methods (PCA and NMDS) and tests of multivariate dispersion (PERMDISP) to assess the distribution and the homogeneity in variation in the composition of macroinvertebrate assemblages across climates and continents, respectively. We found that macroinvertebrate assemblage structures in the subtropical depressional wetlands of North and South America were similar to each other (at the family level), while assemblages in the North and South American temperate wetlands were unique from the subtropics, and from each other. Tests of homogeneity of multivariate dispersion indicated that family‐level assemblage structures were more homogeneous in wetlands from the subtropical than the temperate zones. Our study suggests that ongoing climate change may result in the homogenization of macroinvertebrate assemblage structures in temperate zones of North and South America, with those assemblages becoming enveloped by assemblages from the subtropics. Biotic homogenization, more typically associated with other kinds of anthropogenic factors, may also be affected by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fossil‐rich sediments of the Santa Cruz Formation, Patagonia, Argentina, span the initiation of the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO), the most recent period of warm and wet conditions in the Cenozoic. These conditions drove the expansion of tropical and subtropical ecosystems to much higher latitudes, with the fossiliferous Santa Cruz Formation recording one of the southernmost examples. We collected new carbon and oxygen isotope compositions of herbivore tooth enamel from fossils ~17.4 to 16.4 Ma in age to investigate ecological and climatic changes across the initiation of the MCO. Enamel δ13C values are consistent with a C3‐dominated ecosystem with moderate precipitation and a mix of wooded and more open areas. Serially sampled teeth reveal little zoning in δ13C and δ18O values, suggesting little seasonal variation in water and plant isotope compositions or seasonal changes in diet. Carbon isotope‐based estimates of mean annual precipitation (MAP) are consistent with aridification, with MAP decreasing from ~1,000 ± 235 mm/yr at 17.4 Ma to ~525 ± 105 mm/yr at the start of the climatic optimum (~16.9 Ma). This decrease corresponds to increasing global temperatures, as indicated by marine proxy records, and was followed by a rebound to ~840 ± 270 mm/yr by ~16.4 Ma. In comparison to a modern mean annual temperature (MAT) in the region of ~8°C, oxygen isotopes indicate high MAT (at least 20°C) at the onset of the MCO at 16.9 Ma and a significant increase in MAT to ~25°C by 16.4 Ma. Key Points: The Miocene Climatic Optimum interrupted a trend toward arid conditions in PatagoniaStable isotope‐based estimates of precipitation and temperature significantly changed at the onset of the MCOGeneral circulation models underestimate temperature for Miocene Patagonia [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several factors have been proposed as drivers of species diversification in the Neotropics, including environmental heterogeneity, the development of drainage systems and historical changes in forest distribution due to climatic oscillations. Here, we investigate which drivers contributed to the evolutionary history and current patterns of diversity of a polymorphic songbird (Arremon taciturnus) that is widely distributed in Amazonian and Atlantic forests as well as in Cerrado gallery and seasonally‐dry forests. We use genomic, phenotypic and habitat heterogeneity data coupled with climatic niche modelling. Results suggest the evolutionary history of the species is mainly related to paleoclimatic changes, although changes in the strength of the Amazon river as a barrier to dispersal, current habitat heterogeneity and geographic distance were also relevant. We propose an ancestral distribution in the Guyana Shield, and recent colonization of areas south of the Amazon river at ~380 to 166 kya, and expansion of the distribution to southern Amazonia, Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest. Since then, populations south of the Amazon River have been subjected to cycles of isolation and possibly secondary contact due to climatic changes that affected habitat heterogeneity and population connectivity. Most Amazonian rivers are not associated with long lasting isolation of populations, but some might act as secondary barriers, susceptible to crossing under specific climatic conditions. Morphological variation, while stable in some parts of the distribution, is not a reliable indicator of genetic structure or phylogenetic relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aims and objectives: The transition to an agricultural economy is often presumed to involve an increase in female fertility related to changes in weaning practice. In particular, the availability of staple crops as complementary foods is hypothesized to allow earlier weaning in agricultural populations. In this study, our primary aim is to explore whether this model fits the agricultural transition in the Atacama Desert using incremental isotopic analysis. A secondary aim of this study is to identify isotopic patterns relating to weaning, and assess how these may be differentiated from those relating to early life stress. Materials and methods: We use incremental isotopic analysis of dentine to examine changes in δ15N and δ13C values from infancy and childhood in sites of the Arica region (n = 30). We compare individuals from pre‐agricultural and agricultural phases to establish isotopic patterns and relate these patterns to maternal diet, weaning trajectory and physiological stress. Results: We find that there is no evidence for systematic temporal or geographic variation in incremental isotopic results. Instead, results from all time periods are highly variable, with weaning completed between 1.5 and 3.5 years. Characteristics of the incremental profiles indicate that both in utero and postnatal stress were a common part of the infant experience in the Atacama. Discussion: In the Atacama Desert it appears that the arrival of agricultural crops did not result in uniform shifts in weaning behavior. Instead, infant and child diet seems to have been dictated by the broad‐spectrum diets of the mothers, perhaps as a way of mitigating the stresses of the harsh desert environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The aim of this study was to investigate the biogeography of plant zonation in salt marshes on the Pacific coast of South America; to examine whether salt marsh plant zonation varies with latitude; and to explore the relative importance of climatic, tidal, edaphic and disturbance factors in explaining large-scale variation in salt marsh plant community structure. Location A 2,000-km latitudinal gradient on the Pacific coast in Chile, with a climate shift from hyper-arid at low to hyper-humid at high latitudes. Methods Plant zonation was quantified in field surveys of ten marshes. Climate, tidal regimes, edaphic factors and disturbances (tsunami and rainfall floods) were determined. We used multivariate analyses to explore their relative importance in explaining large-scale variation in salt marsh plant community structure. Results Across latitude, marshes were dominated by distinct plant communities in different climate regions, especially at the extreme dry and wet latitudes. Intertidal plant species zonation was present in hyper-arid and semi-arid climates, but not in arid, humid and hyper-humid climates. Latitudinal variation in low-marsh plant communities (regularly flooded at high tide) was largely a function of precipitation, while at high marshes (never flooded at high tide) latitudinal variation was explained with precipitation, temperature, tidal cycles, soil salinity and disturbances. Main conclusions Salt marshes on the Pacific coast of South America belong to Dry Coast and Temperate biogeographic types. Salt marsh plant zonation varies across latitude, and is explained by climatic, tidal, edaphic and disturbance factors. These patterns appear to be mechanistically explained by extrapolating experimentally generated community assembly models and have implications for predicting responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This study analyses variability and trends of atmospheric evaporative demand ( AED) across Uruguay in the past four decades. Changes were assessed using pan evaporation measurements from 10 meteorological stations and compared to PenPan model calculations, which is a physically based model that employs meteorological data as input. Results demonstrate a high agreement between the observed AED and those estimated from the PenPan model. Both observations and model estimations agree on a high interannual variability in AED, though being statistically insignificant ( p > 0.05) at seasonal and annual scales. Given that AED shows high sensitivity to changes in relative humidity and sunshine duration, as a surrogate of solar radiation, the lack of significant trends in the AED observations and estimations over Uruguay can be linked to the insignificant trend found for these climate variables for the period from 1973 to 2014. This is the first study that reports Pan evaporation trends for this part of the world, helping to infill gaps for mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere areas, which are poorly represented in Pan evaporation trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Koppen-Trewartha (K-T) classification is used to investigate the biomes change in the future climate over South America (SA). For the middle (2035-2060) and end (2075-2100) of the 21st century mean ensemble of Regional Climate Model version 4 simulations for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario are presented. The global-coupled models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 drive the members for the period 1970-2100 using different physics configurations. The delta change approach is applied to filter out the bias of the model simulation. Notable changes of the K-T climates are found in SA, mainly in Brazil. Replacement of tropical wet-dry (Aw) by dry semiarid (Bs) occurs over Northeast Brazil (NEB). Reduction of tropical humid (Ar) and an increase of Aw is projected in the North Brazil and Amazon. Retreat of subtropical humid (Cr) replaced by Aw is found in the Southeast Brazil. An increase of subtropical winter-dry (Cw) and decrease Cr is noted in Argentina and in Paraguay Cr is replaced by Ar. In the south of SA, a retreat of subarctic oceanic (Eo) and an increase of temperate oceanic (Do) and dry arid (Bw) occur. In general, the projected changes of K-T climate types in the 21st century over SA show a tendency for a drier climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT: The creation of baseline climate series is the first step towards the analysis of climate characteristics and behaviour in any region of the world. The objective of this article is to construct homogeneous precipitation series for the period 1982–2011, for the study of its spatial distribution and temporal evolution (dynamics) in the Province of Santa Elena, most occidental region of continental Ecuador. Data from 22 rainfall stations at the study location enabled the construction of five precipitation series using statistical and correlation techniques to complete information gaps. Precipitations present irregular temporal and spatial variation throughout the year, with a wet season between December and May. The December–January–February (DJF) and March–April–May (MAM) trimesters account for 59.7 and 39.1 of annual rainfall. The dry season, between June and November, presents almost zero rainfall. Small precipitations were also identified in coastal, topographically low areas, with precipitations more frequent events towards the continental region. Throughout the years, there has been high variability in precipitations, with the occurrence of wet‐dry episodes associated with the ‘El Niño–La Niña’ events, which were correlated with the sea surface temperature values of the Oceanic Niño Index. Trend analysis detected an average increase in rainfall of 2.1 mm year−1 in the Province, however, the trimestral rates oscillated between 2.2 and 4.3 mm quart−1. The construction of these precipitation series has been an important step for the spatial‐temporal characterization of this peculiar tropical climate region that presents arid characteristics. These series can be applied to base scenarios for the development of climate studies and water resource management in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The generation of quality climatic series is the first step in the analysis of climate characteristics and behaviour in any region of the world. This article approaches the construction of homogeneous average temperature series for the period 1982-2011, for the study of spatial distribution and temporal evolution in the Province of Santa Elena, in the most western point of continental Ecuador in South America. Despite the low variability registered in the temperatures of the Province, these were higher and more homogeneous in the inland region than on the coast and almost 3 °C higher in the trimesters of the rainy season December-January-February ( DJF) and March-April-May ( MAM) than in the trimesters of the dry season June-July-August ( JJA) and September-October-November ( SON). Trend analysis detected positive increasing rates for the temperature of the province, with values three times higher during DJF and MAM in comparison with SON and annual average trend of 0.33 °C decade−1 in the region. The construction of homogeneous average temperature series in the Province of Santa Elena has been an important step towards the spatial-temporal characterization of this peculiar climatic zone. These series can also be employed as base scenarios for the development of climate change studies in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The 1976-1977 cold-to-warm sea surface temperature ( SST) shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which has been associated with a phase change of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO) index, separated a 'La Niña-like' decadal regime from an 'El Niño-like' one. In this article, we analyse the differences of mean of annual and austral-summer ( DJF) temperature, precipitation, and sea-level pressure ( SLP) over South America ( SA) between 1961-1973 and 1978-1990, and explore the occurrence of significant shifts in their time series. Our sources are instrumental records, gridded interpolated data, and reanalyses. Although major regional differences in the intensity of the signal are detected, the climate shift is identified in all variables. In the mid-1970s at annual level, reanalysis SLP data reveal the onset of a step-like anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the southern tip of SA and an abrupt weakening of the Southeast Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone ( SEPA). This latter feature may have partly induced the rapid warming observed along the tropical-extratropical west coast of the continent through the weakening of the cold Humboldt current system. An abrupt warming was also detected in surface air temperature ( SAT) composites located along the coast of the northern part of SA and in Southeastern SA ( SESA). During summer, we found a particularly conspicuous shift-like warming over Southern South America ( SSA, comprising Patagonia). Besides, a shift-like increase (decrease) in annual mean precipitation is observed over Central Argentina and in the tropics, to the south (north) of 10°S. In line with previous studies, we conclude that both the interannual (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) and the interdecadal ( PDO) variability modes seem to have had an incidence in the manifestation of the 1970s climate shift, and that its magnitude appears to be unprecedented during the 20th century, as shown in particular by century-long SAT composites from northern Chile and SSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT South America spans about 44° latitude, covers almost 18 million km2, and is second only to Africa in continental mammal species richness. In spite of this richness, research on the status of this fauna and on the nature and magnitude of contemporary threats remains limited. Distilling threats to this diverse fauna at a continental scale is challenging, in part because of the limited availability of rigorous studies. Recognizing this constraint, we summarize key threats to small mammals in South America, emphasizing the roles of habitat loss and degradation, direct persecution, and the increasing threat of climate change. We focus on three regional 'case studies': the tropical Andes, Amazonia and adjacent lowland regions, and the southern temperate region. We close with a brief summary of recent findings at our long-term research site in north-central Chile as they pertain to projected threats to this fauna. Habitat alteration is a pervasive threat that has been magnified by market forces and globalization (e.g. extensive agricultural development in Amazonia), and threatens increasing numbers of populations and species. Climate change poses even greater threats, from changes in rainfall and runoff regimes and resulting changes in vegetative structure and composition to secondary influences on fire dynamics. It is likely that many changes have yet to be recognized, but existing threats suggest that the future may bring dramatic changes in the distribution of many mammal taxa, although it is not clear if key habitat elements (vegetation) will respond as rapidly as climatic factors, leading to substantial uncertainty. Climate change is likely to result in 'winners' and 'losers' but available information precludes detailed assessment of which species are likely to fall into which category. In the absence of long-term monitoring and applied research to characterize these threats more accurately, and to develop strategies to reduce their impacts, managers already are being faced with daunting challenges. As the line between 'pure' and 'applied' research blurs in the face of converging interests of scientists and society we hope that solutions to these critical issues will be incorporated in addressing anticipated conservation crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangroves are species of halophytic intertidal trees and shrubs derived from tropical genera and are likely delimited in latitudinal range by varying sensitivity to cold. There is now sufficient evidence that mangrove species have proliferated at or near their poleward limits on at least five continents over the past half century, at the expense of salt marsh. Avicennia is the most cold-tolerant genus worldwide, and is the subject of most of the observed changes. Avicennia germinans has extended in range along the USA Atlantic coast and expanded into salt marsh as a consequence of lower frost frequency and intensity in the southern USA. The genus has also expanded into salt marsh at its southern limit in Peru, and on the Pacific coast of Mexico. Mangroves of several species have expanded in extent and replaced salt marsh where protected within mangrove reserves in Guangdong Province, China. In south-eastern Australia, the expansion of Avicennia marina into salt marshes is now well documented, and Rhizophora stylosa has extended its range southward, while showing strong population growth within estuaries along its southern limits in northern New South Wales. Avicennia marina has extended its range southwards in South Africa. The changes are consistent with the poleward extension of temperature thresholds coincident with sea-level rise, although the specific mechanism of range extension might be complicated by limitations on dispersal or other factors. The shift from salt marsh to mangrove dominance on subtropical and temperate shorelines has important implications for ecological structure, function, and global change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Species distribution modelling ( SDM) has increasingly been used to predict palaeodistributions at regional and global scales in order to understand the response of vegetation to climate change and to estimate palaeodistributions for the testing of biogeographical hypotheses. However, there are many sources of uncertainty in SDM that may restrict the ability of models to hindcast palaeo-distributions and provide a basis for hypothesis testing in molecular phylogenetics and phylogeographical studies. Location Seasonally dry forests (SDFs) in South America. Methods We addressed the problem of using palaeodistribution modelling for SDFs based on the projection of their current distribution into past environments (21 ka) using 11 methods for SDMs and five coupled atmosphere-ocean global circulation models ( AOGCMs) for 16 species. Results We observed considerable uncertainty in the hindcasts, with the most important effects for AOGCM (median 12.2%), species (median 15.6%) and their interaction (median 13.6%). The effects of AOGCMs were stronger in the Amazon region, whereas the species effect occurred primarily in the dry areas of central Brazil. The log-linear model detected significant effects of the three sources of variation and their interaction on the classification of each map in supporting alternative hypotheses. An expansion scenario combining the Pleistocene arc and Amazonian expansion, and Pennington's Amazonian expansion alone, were the most frequently supported palaeodistribution scenarios. Main conclusions As a basis for evaluating a given hypothesis, hindcast distributions must be used in direct association with other evidence, such as molecular variation and the fossil record. We propose an alternative framework concerning hypothesis testing that couples SDM and phylogeographical work, in which palaeoclimatic distributions and other sources of information, such as the pollen fossil record and coalescence modelling, must be weighted equally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim We evaluate the extent to which the tropical conservatism hypothesis can explain the evolutionary development of the Muscidae. Furthermore, we compare the geographical patterns of muscid phylogenetic structure with biogeographical regions that have been identified for Neotropical insects. Location Central and South America. Methods We modelled the geographic distributions of 658 species using M axent and 19 environmental variables. A generic-level supertree of the Muscidae was assembled using matrix representation with parsimony and used to map the geographic pattern of mean root distance (MRD), a metric of the relative evolutionary development of assemblages. Regression models (ordinary least squares and regression trees) were used to examine temperature and other environmental correlates of MRD to explore potential environmental drivers of muscid diversification. We used the regression tree results to recognize variable intervals that best explained MRD, and these intervals were mapped to recognize and compare with biogeographical regions of Neotropical insects. Results The geographic pattern of MRD was consistent with the tropical conservatism hypothesis: species in genera that diversified relatively early, as measured by their distance from the tree root, dominate lowland tropical South America, whereas species in genera that diversified more recently occupy extra-tropical areas, sub-Antarctic areas and the Andean highlands. Temperature was the strongest correlate of MRD. Three biogeographical regions were recognized and they coincided with two regions known for insects. Main conclusions Evolutionary responses of muscid flies to post-Eocene climate change taking the form of an expansion of a tropical group into regions with colder climates may be fundamental to explaining their distribution in the Neotropics. Our biogeographical regions delimited by temperature and the phylogenetic metric, surrogates of the tropical conservatism hypothesis, were very similar to general insect patterns, supporting the 'tropical origin and evolutionary response to climate cooling' as a broadly based historical narrative for the Neotropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

•We used a climate–vegetation–natural fire (CVNF) conceptual model to evaluate the sensitivity and vulnerability of forest, savanna, and the forest–savanna transition to environmental changes in tropical South America. •Initially, under current environmental conditions, CVNF model results suggested that, in the absence of fires, tropical forests would extend c. 200 km into the presently observed savanna domain. •Environmental changes were then imposed upon the model in temperature, precipitation and lightning strikes. These changes ranged from 2 to 6°C warming, +10 to −20% precipitation change and 0 to 15% increase in lightning frequency, which, in aggregate form, represent expected future climatic changes in response to global warming and deforestation. •The most critical vegetation changes are projected to take place over the easternmost portions of the basin, with a widening of the forest–savanna transition. The transition width would increase from 150 to c. 300 km, with tree cover losses ranging from 20 to 85%. This means that c. 6% of the areas currently covered by forests could potentially turn into grass-dominated savanna landscapes. The mechanism driving tree cover reduction consists of the combination of less favorable climate conditions for trees and more fire activity. In addition, this sensitivity analysis predicts that the current dry shrubland vegetation of northeast Brazil could potentially turn into a bare soil landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The aim of this study was to assess the causal mechanisms underlying populational subdivision in Drosophila gouveai, a cactophilic species associated with xeric vegetation enclaves in eastern Brazil. A secondary aim was to investigate the genetic effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on these environments. Location Dry vegetation enclaves within the limits of the Cerrado domain in eastern Brazil. Methods We determined the mitochondrial DNA haplotypes of 55 individuals (representing 12 populations) based on sequence data of a 483-bp fragment from the cytochrome c oxidase subunit II (COII) gene. Phylogenetic and coalescent analyses were used to test for the occurrence of demographic events and to infer the time of divergence amongst genetically independent groups. Results Our analyses revealed the existence of two divergent subclades (G1 and G2) plus an introgressed clade restricted to the southernmost range of D. gouveai. Subclades G1 and G2 displayed genetic footprints of range expansion and segregated geographical distributions in south-eastern and some central highland regions, east and west of the Paraná River valley. Molecular dating indicated that the main demographic and diversification events occurred in the late to middle Pleistocene. Main conclusions The phylogeographical and genetic patterns observed for D. gouveai in this study are consistent with changes in the distribution of dry vegetation in eastern Brazil. All of the estimates obtained by molecular dating indicate that range expansion and isolation pre-dated the Last Glacial Maximum, occurring during the late to middle Pleistocene, and were probably triggered by climatic changes during the Pleistocene. The current patchy geographical distribution and population subdivision in D. gouveai is apparently closely linked to these past events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a research on rainfall pattern changes during the 20th century in the Indian Himalayas. It notes that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) used the 80-year-old data from 30 rain gauge stations to explore the pattern changes. It explores the change implications in terms of its percentage.

Aim To evaluate whether observed geographical shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw ( Primolius maracana) are related to ongoing processes of global climate change. This species is vulnerable to extinction and has shown striking range retractions in recent decades, withdrawing broadly from southern portions of its historical distribution. Its range reduction has generally been attributed to the effects of habitat loss; however, as this species has also disappeared from large forested areas, consideration of other factors that may act in concert is merited. Location Historical distribution of the blue-winged macaw in Brazil, eastern Paraguay and northern Argentina. Methods We used a correlative approach to test a hypothesis of causation of observed shifts by reduction of habitable areas mediated by climate change. We developed models of the ecological niche requirements of the blue-winged macaw, based on point-occurrence data and climate scenarios for pre-1950 and post-1950 periods, and tested model predictivity for anticipating geographical distributions within time periods. Then we projected each model to the other time period and compared distributions predicted under both climate scenarios to assess shifts of habitable areas across decades and to evaluate an explanation for observed range retractions. Results Differences between predicted distributions of the blue-winged macaw over the twentieth century were, in general, minor and no change in suitability of landscapes was predicted across large areas of the species’ original range in different time periods. No tendency towards range retraction in the south was predicted, rather conditions in the southern part of the species’ range tended to show improvement for the species. Main conclusions Our test permitted elimination of climate change as a likely explanation for the observed shifts in the distribution of the blue-winged macaw, and points rather to other causal explanations (e.g. changing regional land use, emerging diseases). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim This study analyses long-term responses to climate changes in Podocarpus parlatorei, a cold-tolerant tree species from the subtropics in South America, using distribution patterns of isozyme variation. Location Podocarpus parlatorei characterizes montane forests within the Yungas, a cloud forest of the subtropics of north-western Argentina and southern Bolivia. Podocarpus parlatorei consists of disjunct populations ecologically subdivided into northern, central, and southern sectors that we predict will be genetically divergent from one another as a result of historical isolation. Methods We collected fresh leaves from a maximum of 30 randomly selected individuals from each of 18 populations. We resolved 25 isozyme loci, and scored the most consistent 14, 57% of which were polymorphic. Within-population variation was tested against latitude, longitude, and elevation using multiple regressions. Genetic structure across populations was analysed using diversity parameters. The relationship between genetic and geographic distances was explored with reference to Pearson correlation coefficients. Results The effective number of alleles and observed heterozygosity increase latitudinally. Southern populations tend to be the most variable and genetically distinct. This result suggests that they could represent the location of a long-term refuge for P. parlatorei. The mean number of alleles per locus decreases with elevation. The total genetic diversity is HT = 0.163, 10% of which is distributed among populations. A positive association between genetic and geographic distances was detected. Main conclusions Reductions in genetic diversity towards the north and high-elevation mountains are consistent with evidence of patterns of forest migration resulting from climate change during the Late Quaternary, northern expansion during episodes of cooling, and range contraction towards the highlands during warming trends. Naturally disjunct populations of P. parlatorei are genetically divergent from one another, indicating that local genetic stocks should be used for restoration of degraded habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Use a regression model that relates climatic variables to the relative abundances of shrubs, C4 and C3 grasses to project the plant functional type composition of temperate grasslands and shrublands within North and South America in response to climate change. Location The temperate zone grassland and shrubland regions of North and South America. Methods We used a regression model to project changes in the relative abundances of shrubs, C4 and C3 grasses under three general circulation model (GFDL, GISS, UKMO) climate change scenarios. The three climate change scenarios were applied to a global data set of mean monthly temperatures and precipitation. The regression model, which incorporates mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation and seasonality of precipitation as input variables, was used to project plant functional type changes. Spatial patterns of change were analysed using a geographical information system. Results Relative abundance of C4 grasses were projected to increase >10% throughout most of the study region at the expense of C3 grasses. There were essentially no areas where C4 grasses decreased in abundance, and the areas with no change were largely the southern Great Plains and the Intermountain Basin and Range of North America. C3 grasses declined throughout with the exception of the north-western Great Plains of the US and Canada, and north central Argentina. Changes in shrub abundance were mixed with some increases in Patagonia and the desert regions of the south-western US; there were also some projected decreases, however, the locations varied across models. Main conclusions The projections made by our regression model were consistent with those of other more complex vegetation dynamics models. Changes in plant community composition in response to climate change may be substantial in certain areas and will probably lead to changes in water and... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]