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Seasonal climate forecasts have been promoted as a means to increase the resilience of marginal groups in Africa. The manifestations of this are still to be seen. This paper argues that successful dissemination and adoption of the forecast requires an in-depth profile of the characteristics and needs of user groups. The case study of a mountainous village in southern Lesotho is used to highlight the decisions which one group of marginal users – smallholder farmers – might make in response to the forecast. A participatory role-play exercise explores what information households presently receive and how new climate forecast information could be integrated into seasonal decision making. Results show that there are a number of low-input options available to these farmers for responding to the forecast. Adoption, however, is going to require repeated exposure to the forecast in conjunction with forecast development that is suited to users’ needs. The case study is linked back to the larger scale by suggesting paths that seasonal climate forecast development could take if it is to contribute to improving livelihood sustainability among marginal groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Following the implementation of the provision of lifelong antiretroviral therapy to all HIV‐positive pregnant or breastfeeding women for prevention of mother‐to‐child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV by the Kingdom of Lesotho in 2013, we assessed the effectiveness of this approach by evaluating 24‐month HIV‐free survival among HIV‐exposed infants (HEIs). Methods: We conducted a prospective observational cohort study that enrolled HIV‐positive and HIV‐negative pregnant women, with follow‐up of women and their infants for 24 months after delivery. Participant recruitment started in June 2014 and follow‐up ended in September 2018. Trained nurses collected study information through patient interviews and chart abstraction at enrolment and every three to six months thereafter. Maternal HIV testing, infant mortality, HIV transmission and HIV‐free survival rates were computed using Kaplan–Meier estimation. Cox regression hazard models were used to identify factors associated with infant HIV infection and death. Results: Between June 2014 and February 2016, we enrolled 653 HIV‐positive and 941 HIV‐negative pregnant women. Twenty‐seven HIV‐negative women acquired HIV during follow‐up. Ultimately, 634 liveborn HEI (382 (52%) male, 303 (48%) female, 3 missing) and 839 who remained HIV‐unexposed (HUIs) (409 (49.0%) male, 426 (51.0%) female, 4 missing) were followed; 550 HEIs and 701 HUIs completed the 24‐month follow‐up period. Of 607 (95.7%) HEIs who were tested for HIV at least once during follow‐up, 17 were found to be HIV‐positive. Two (9.5%) of 21 infants born to mothers who acquired HIV infection during follow‐up were HIV‐positive compared to 15 (2.4%) of 613 HEI born to women with known HIV infection. The risk of HIV transmission from HIV‐positive mothers to their infants by 24 months of age was 2.9% (95% CI: 1.8 to 4.7). The estimated 24‐month mortality rate among HEIs was 6.0% (95% CI: 4.4 to 8.2) compared to 3.8% (95% CI: 2.6 to 5.3) among HUIs (Log‐rank p = 0.065). HIV‐free survival at 24 months was 91.8% (95% CI: 89.2 to 93.7). Lower maternal age and birth weight were independently associated with increased HIV infection or death of infants. Conclusions: The implementation of lifelong ART for PMTCT in the Lesotho public health system resulted in low HIV transmission, but survival of HEI remains lower than their HIV uninfected counterparts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Presence-absence maps of the occurrence of species may be difficult to interpret because of uneven coverage in field surveys. Using data collected in the mountain Kingdom of Lesotho. southern Africa, where even coverage was virtually impossible to achieve, a method is presented to improve bird atlas maps by plotting predicted probabilities of occurrence calculated from logistic models. A set of habitat variables derived from maps was reduced to principal components and then used in logistic models to predict the occurrence of bird species across the country. The models generate a probability of occurrence for all survey squares irrespective of coverage. Maps for the Cape vulture Gyps coprotheres (Forster), ground woodpecker Geocolaptes olivaceus (Gmelin) and pied crow Corvus albus Muller are presented as examples. The models were assessed by jack-knife analysis and correctly predicted presence and absence in the field data. Relationships between the predicted probabilities, recording frequency (reporting rate) and density are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]