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The paper referred to is ‘The Future of Data Analysis,’ published in 1962. Many authors have discussed it, notably Peter Huber, who in 1995 reviewed the period starting with Hotelling's 1940 article ‘The Teaching of Statistics.’ I extend the scope of Huber's remarks by considering also the period before 1940 and developments since 1995. I ask whether statistics is a science and suggest that to attract bright students to our subject, we need to show them the excitement and rewards of applied work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with the recent growth of the co-operative schools movement (CSM) in education in England. It provides a detailed description of the demography and distribution of co-operative schools and the motivations for becoming a co-operative school. Based on data provided by the Co-operative College (2014) the paper will identify schools' geographical distribution, the particular loadings in terms of primary and secondary institutions, the school populations they served, and the correlation between the political complexions of the local areas within which these schools were located and their decision to follow the co-operative route at that point in time. A key component of our research has been to explore the motivations which encouraged schools to affiliate with the Schools Co-operative Society (SCS) rather than with other forms of trusts and academies. We thus complement the statistical analysis of data with interview data from key figures in the CSM and a consideration of the values base within which the CSM is set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the public debate surrounding assessment in English education and presents evidence of the misuse of public data from national tests. Statistics generated by pupil assessments in schools and colleges in England are argued to be subject to misinterpretation by the media and policy makers. The discourse tends either to be sensationalist—for example, raising public anxiety by claiming falling standards—or politically charged—for example, where the incumbent government is criticised by its political enemies for pursuing failing policies—rather than being framed by objective and purposeful interpretations. Examples are provided to illustrate how interpretations by the media and policy-makers can be strikingly at odds with how the figures should properly be read. The paper analyses the propriety of these interpretations and makes suggestions as to how a more cautious approach to the use of results in the public sphere can be promoted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has, for some years, been a growing concern about participation in university-entrance level mathematics in England and across the developed world. Extensive statistical analyses present the decline but offer little to help us understand the causes. In this paper we explore a concern which cannot be explored through national data-sets, namely the retention of mathematics students on Advanced level (A-level) mathematics courses. Drawing on survey data from 15 secondary schools in the Midlands of England, we examine subject differences in decisions to study, withdraw from, and continue in a range of A-level subjects. Not only is the rate of attrition from mathematics higher than most other subjects, but there are substantial differences between schools. In order to explore this high rate of attrition further we consider one school (Queensbury Park) in which a large proportion of students decided not to continue with their study of mathematics from Year 12 to Year 13. Drawing on performance data and focus group interviews we explore some of the reasons for the students’ decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The discrete choice analysis of residential location choice forms an important part of land use-transport modelling systems but gives rise to a number of significant modelling challenges, one of which is the choice set formation problem. A number of alternative approaches exist to addressing the choice set formation problem, but to the best of our knowledge, there have been no efforts to empirically compare their performance using real choice data. In this paper, we propose to address this gap by examining the performance of several choice set formation methods within the context of residential location choice in London. The paper presents a brief review of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature on the treatment of the choice set formation problem in the context of spatial choice and sets out the characteristics of the specific modelling approaches implemented in the empirical research. In particular, we compare a recently proposed hazard-based screening model with more conventional pure statistical treatments. The empirical research uses a specially constructed data-set on residential location choice, developed by the authors for the Greater London area, which draws on information from a number of separate data sources (including revealed preference data from the London Area Travel Survey). The alternative choice set formation approaches are assessed in terms of their prediction performance on a hold-out validation sub-sample and also in terms of estimated model parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Lay understandings of health and illness have a well established track record and a plethora of research now exists which has examined these issues. However, there is a dearth of research which has examined the perspectives of those who are imprisoned. This paper attempts to address this research gap. The paper is timely given that calls have been made to examine lay perspectives in different geographical locations and a need to re-examine health promotion approaches in prison settings. Qualitative data from thirty-six male sentenced prisoners from three prisons in England were collected. The data was analysed in accordance with Attride- Stirling's (2001) thematic network approach. Although the men's perceptions of health were broadly similar to the general population, some interesting findings emerged which were directly related to prison life and its associated structures. These included access to the outdoors and time out of their prison cell, as well as maintaining relationships with family members through visits. The paper proposes that prisoners' lay views should be given higher priority given that prison health has traditionally been associated with medical treatment and the bio-medical paradigm more generally. It also suggests that in order to fulfil the World Health Organization's (WHO) vision of viewing prisons as health promoting settings, lay views should be recognised to shape future health promotion policy and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across Europe and North America, few young people meet the recommended levels of physical activity (PA) of 1 hour of moderate to vigorous PA per day. However, the lives of young people cannot simply be polarised as either completely sedentary or active. Drawing on findings from the World Health Organization Health Behaviour in School-aged Children cross sectional international study, this paper examines the domains of adolescent life associated with young people's participation in overall PA, including health behaviours, social relationships and family activities. Consideration is also given to gender differences. Information in England was collected from 4404 students aged 11, 13 and 15 years, using anonymised self-completed questionnaires. Physical aspects of lifestyle were determined using internationally validated items for measuring PA that met international guidelines for activity and the frequency and duration of vigorous exercise undertaken during leisure activities. Separate analyses were conducted for boys and girls. Levels of PA and vigorous exercise were compared using the chi-squared test for trend. The findings draw attention to the value for the health and well-being of young people participating in some form of PA, even if they do not meet the recommended levels. Medium levels of PA appear to be associated with high levels of life satisfaction, self-rated health and an improved sense of body image. Significant health gains are likely to be made for adolescents in encouraging sedentary young people to undertake some form of PA. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The paper examines assessment and outcomes of alcohol misuse and dual diagnosis from liaison psychiatry services for older people. The authors used a retrospective case note survey for referrals to four older adult liaison psychiatry services was carried out on consecutive anonymised in-patient records for admissions from 2006 to 2011. Notes were examined for all older people with alcohol-related problems seen by liaison psychiatry services, with documentation of reason for admission, accompanying mental disorder, referral to mental health services and 6 month follow-up. Four hundred and twenty unique case notes were identified, with 108 patients being eligible for inclusion. Sixty patients were admitted with alcohol withdrawal syndrome, 42 of whom were given a diagnosis of alcohol-related brain injury (ARBI). Fifty patients were taken on by community mental health teams (CMHTs); a further 14 were placed in continuing care facilities. Of the patients under CMHTs, 19 patients (38%) had achieved abstinence from alcohol or controlled drinking at 6 month follow-up. Patients with ARBI were less likely than those without it to have changed their drinking behaviour after 6 months. This is the first UK naturalistic study to show positive outcomes from community treatment of alcohol misuse and dual diagnosis. In spite of the high rate of referral to mental health services and positive outcomes, there was little indication of clear pathways being used in the assessment, treatment and referral of older people with alcohol misuse in medical wards. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Primary objective: Neurobehavioural disability (NBD) has a major impact on long-term psychosocial outcome following acquired brain injury (ABI). A recent review highlighted that a reliable and valid measure that can adequately capture the subtle and varied characteristics of NBD has yet to be developed. In this paper, the work underpinning the 'St Andrews-Swansea Neurobehavioural Outcome Scale' (SASNOS) is described using a conceptual framework underpinned by the WHO ICF. The intention is that SASNOS will provide a reliable and valid means of measuring NBD. Methods and procedures: Three hundred and thirty-six sets of ratings were made regarding ABI and neurologically healthy samples. The initial pool of 117 items was subjected to exploratory factor analysis and Rasch analysis. Reliability and validity of the new measure were determined using a range of appropriate statistical methods. Main outcomes: Forty-nine items were retained, falling into five principal factors. Content and construct validity are calculated. SASNOS has excellent discriminant/diagnostic validity. Inter-rater and test-re-test reliability are good. Conclusions: SASNOS has a range of clinical and research applications and can be employed when measuring outcome. This new measure will enable neurorehabilitation services to directly compare the clinical populations they serve using the same frame of reference for NBD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reassessment of flood risk at York, UK, is pertinent in light of major flooding in November 2000, and heightened concerns of a perceived increase in flooding nationally. Systematic flood level readings from 1877 and a wealth of documentary records dating back as far as 1263 AD give the City of York a long and rich history of flood records. This extended flood record provides an opportunity to reassess estimates of flood frequency over a time scale not normally possible within flood frequency analysis. This paper re-evaluates flood frequency at York, considering the strengths and weaknesses in estimates resulting from four contrasting methods of analysis and their corresponding data: (a) single-site analysis of gauged annual maxima; (b) pooled analysis of multi-site gauged annual maxima; (c) combined analysis of systematic annual maxima augmented with historical peaks, and (d) analysis of only the very largest peaks using a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Use of the historical information was found to yield risk estimates which were lower and considered to be more credible than those achieved using gauged records alone. Citation Macdonald, N. & Black, A. R. (2010) Reassessment of flood frequency using historical information for the River Ouse at York, UK (1200-2000). Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1152-1162. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Teenage pregnancy has been labelled as a major social and health problem and has become a key policy area in several industrialized countries. In England, current policy aims (1) to halve teenage pregnancy rates for under-18s by 2010, and (2) to reduce teenage parents' risk of social exclusion by supporting their participation in education, training and employment. Official statistics are published on the rate of teenage pregnancy but not on the number of teenage mothers. In this paper we calculate the number of teenage mothers aged 15-17 in England in 2001 using routine data on fertility, stillbirths and mortality. We find that there were approximately 30,000 teenage mothers in England in 2001. This is a calculation which could, and should, be produced regularly by the Office for National Statistics. By only producing statistics on the rate of teenage pregnancy and not the number of teenage mothers, the first policy goal is thereby given precedence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Winters are a difficult period for the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom (UK), due to the combination of cold weather and the increased likelihood of respiratory infections, especially influenza. In this article we present a proper statistical time series approach for modelling and analysing weekly hospital admissions in the West Midlands in the UK during the period week 15/1990 to week 14/1999. We consider three variables, namely, hospital admissions, general practitioner consultants, and minimum temperature. The autocorrelations of each series are shown to decay hyperbolically. The correlations of hospital admission and the lag of other series also decay hyperbolically but with different speed and directions. One of the main objectives of this paper is to show that each of the three series can be represented by a Fractional Differenced Autoregressive integrated moving average model, (FDA). Further, the hospital admission winter and summer residuals shows significant interdependency, which may be interpreted as hidden periodicities within the last 10-years time interval. The short-range (8 weeks) forecasting of hospital admission of the FDA model and a fourth-order AutoRegressive AR(4) model are quite similar. However, our results reveal that the long-range forecasting of FDA is more realistic. This implies that, using the FDA approach, the respective authority can plan for winter pressure properly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patients with self-limiting respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are frequently seen in general practice. Although antibiotics are ineffective for these conditions, they are often prescribed by general practitioners (GPs), and perceived patient expectations for an antibiotic plays an important role in the decision to prescribe one. Superfluous use of antibiotics contributes to antimicrobial resistance. High numbers of nurse prescribers work alongside GPs and these prescribers see education and self-management advice as central to the care of these patients. Multi-faceted interventions, designed to reduce antibiotic prescribing, only exist for GPs. Such interventions should foster interprofessional collaboration and, as such, consider the needs and experiences of the different prescribers, and the views of patients. This paper outlines a research study in which a questionnaire will be distributed to patients who consult with a nurse prescriber to see whether their expectations influence their satisfaction with the consultation outcome. Findings will guide the development of an interprofessional intervention designed to promote collaborative practice and appropriate and responsible antibiotic prescribing in primary care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]