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It is shown that concepts from survival analysis (branch of statistics dealing with various types of time-to-event data) are helpful when trying to quantify and understand the onset of tearing modes in tokamaks. It is argued that a probabilistic event prediction problem should be decomposed into (i) dynamical system evolution and (ii) event hazard function integration. Successful machine learning of a hazard (events per time) function from experimental data is demonstrated. The hazard function exhibits statistical properties that are consistent with expectation. A specific tearing delta-prime proxy is found to not contribute to the likelihood of the hazard function for the present case. Although in this paper the event is the onset of a tearing mode in a particular plasma scenario, these ideas should be equally applicable to disruption events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A basic nonlinear electromechanical model is developed for the interaction between a pre-existing near-saturated tearing-mode, a conducting wall, active coils internal to the wall, and active coils external to the wall. The tearing-mode is represented by a perturbed helical surface current and its island has a small but finite moment of inertia. The model is shown to have several properties that are qualitatively consistent with the experimental observations of mode-wall and mode-coil interactions. The main purpose of the model is to guide the design of a phase control system for locked modes (LMs) in tokamaks. Such a phase controller may become an important component in integrated disruption avoidance systems. A realistic feedback controller for the LM phase is designed and tested for the electromechanical model. The results indicate that a simple fixed-gain controller can perform phase control of LMs with a range of sizes, and at arbitrary misalignment relative to a realistically dimensioned background error field. The basic model is expected to be a useful minimal dynamical system representation also for other aspects of mode-wall-coil interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detailed measurements from the DIII-D tokamak of the toroidal dynamics of error field penetration locked modes under the influence of slowly evolving external fields, enable study of the toroidal torques on the mode, including interaction with the intrinsic error field. The error field in these low density Ohmic discharges is well known based on the mode penetration threshold, allowing resonant and non-resonant torque effects to be distinguished. These m/n = 2/1 locked modes are found to be well described by a toroidal torque balance between the resonant interaction with n = 1 error fields, and a viscous torque in the electron diamagnetic drift direction which is observed to scale as the square of the perturbed field due to the island. Fitting to this empirical torque balance allows a time-resolved measurement of the intrinsic error field of the device, providing evidence for a time-dependent error field in DIII-D due to ramping of the Ohmic coil current. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]