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Background The 2019 Canada's Food Guide recommends the consumption of lower fat dairy products to reduce saturated fat (SFA) intakes. Objectives The objective of this study was to assess the impact of such recommendation on SFA intake at a population level in Canada. Methods Analyses were conducted based on dietary intakes from the nationally representative 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey–Nutrition (unweighted n  = 20,103). Dietary intake was assessed using 24-h dietary recalls. Food-based substitution modeling analyses were conducted by replacing all regular-fat dairy products reported by an equal amount of a corresponding lower fat dairy product. Regular-fat dairy products included milks ≥2% fat, cheeses >25% fat, and yogurts ≥2% fat. Corresponding lower fat replacement products were 1% fat milks, 10–25% fat cheeses, and <2% fat yogurts. The National Cancer Institute method was used to account for within-person variation in dietary intakes. Results Replacing all regular-fat dairy products consumed by Canadians (ages ≥2 y) by a corresponding lower fat product reduced the population's SFA intake from 10.8% of total energy intake (%E; 95% CI: 10.7%, 11.0%) to 10.0%E (95% CI: 9.8%, 10.2%). This reduction was mostly attributable to the milk and cheese substitutions (mean SFA reductions of −0.3%E each). The proportion of the population with an SFA intake <10%E was 34.7% (95% CI: 31.2%, 38.2%) before substitution and 51.5% (95% CI: 47.5%, 55.5%) after substitution. Conclusions This food-based substitution modeling analysis suggests that SFA intakes at a population level are slightly reduced if all regular-fat dairy products consumed by Canadians were replaced by a lower fat dairy product. Approximately half of the population would still consume SFAs in excess of 10%E even if all regular-fat dairy consumed were replaced by lower fat dairy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]