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Deep decarbonization scenarios indicate a decline in fossil oil usage in the coming decades, meaning that oil refineries must adapt. This work evaluates the refining sector in deep decarbonization pathways using Brazil as a case study. BLUES – a national integrated assessment model – is employed to investigate the evolution of the sector in mitigation scenarios until 2050. The production of feedstocks for the petrochemical industry, of fuels for the aviation and maritime sectors, and biomass co-processing are analyzed. These strategies may bring resilience to the sector. The potential for avoiding emissions in refineries' operations is also explored. Findings show that the refining sector operates at 70% and 74% of its nameplate capacity in decarbonization scenarios. These results are used as the starting point for a detailed analysis of Brazilian refineries. Results show that the employment of refineries' assets for purposes aligned with decarbonization targets, along with emissions mitigation in the sector, reduces risks of carbon lock-in and of asset stranding. To our knowledge, this is the first study that evaluates emissions mitigation in the refining sector and also uses an integrated assessment model to investigate oil refining repurposing and co-processing options in the context of decarbonization. • The refining sector is evaluated using an integrated assessment model for Brazil. • A comparison is made between business- as -usual and decarbonization scenarios. • Opportunities for refineries' assets and mitigation measures are explored. • Opportunities for refineries depend on their location and type of processing units. • Risks of carbon lock-in and asset stranding can be reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents the results of the EX-Ante Carbon-balance Tool (EX-ACT) application on two rural development projects in Brazil. The analysis provides an estimate of project impact on GHG emissions and C sequestration indicating net mitigation potential: results show that the Santa Catarina Rural Competitiveness Project has the potential to mitigate 12.2Mt CO2e and the Rio de Janeiro Sustainable Rural Development Project 0.85Mt CO2e. Both projects are successful at promoting activities aimed at reducing rural poverty and also contribute to climate change mitigation, demonstrating the potential importance of sustainable agriculture (improved cropland and grassland management, expansion of agro-forestry systems and protection of forested areas) in delivering environmental services. EX-ACT has also been used as a tool to guide project developers in refining components and activities to increase project environmental benefits. Cost–benefit analysis shows that while both projects generate environmental benefits associated with climate change mitigation, the Santa Catarina Rural Competitiveness Project has significantly higher potential due to the size of the project area and the nature of activities, thus a higher likelihood of potential co-financing from climate finance sources. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]