Search

Air pollution control measures play a crucial role in reducing air pollution and climate change, but researches on co-benefits of Total Control of Major Air Pollutants (TCMAP) in China is limited. This study quantifies synergistic benefits of TCMAP in reducing pollutant and carbon emissions by constructing a project-level emission reduction database, and further modelling safeguard strategy of emission reduction to achieve dual carbon target. Results revealed that TCMAP has facilitated a shift in the focus of air pollutant management from energy restructuring to deeper industrial and transportation restructuring. Synergistic benefits of TCMAP surpassed Carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from end-of-pipe treatment measures. As a result of rigorous implementation of TCMAP, approximately 0.12 GtCO 2 emissions were projected to be avoided in 2022. Synergistic reductions of 5,161 kt pollutants need to be achieved by 2030, and this commitment should be further strengthened to achieve 11,352 kt pollutants by 2060 to achieve dual-carbon target. [Display omitted] • Atmospheric control turned to transportation and industrial structure adjustment. • TCMAP pathway achieved synergistic carbon reduction 0.12 GtCO 2 in 2022. • Synergistic benefits of TCMAP far outweigh the end-treat measures that produce CO 2. • More ambitious TCMAP target safeguards needed for climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• First study to comprehensively address climate strategies for the O&G upstream sector in Brazil. • Decarbonization scenarios are simulated using a national Integrated Assessment Model (IAM). • O&G production can be sustained without compromising national decarbonization goals, but CO 2 and CH 4 emissions reductions must exceed simulated efforts to match industry leaders. • Ample potential to offset emissions through reforestation (∼ 500MtCO 2 /2050) and BECCS (∼ 400MtCO 2 /2050), presenting appealing business prospects for the industry. • CCS can play a vital role in advancing the decarbonization goals of both the sector and the country. Future projections of oil and gas demand suggest that some production will remain necessary. Although attention often focuses on CO 2 emissions from the combustion of their products, oil and gas production is also a relevant global emission source of both CO 2 and CH 4. Hence, understanding the carbon performance of upstream activities in producing nations is vital for distinguishing producers in a climate-pressured global market. This work explores climate strategies for the oil and gas upstream sector, using Brazil as a case study. The sector´s emissions profile is evaluated under distinct national climate scenarios. The analysis employs BLUES, a national Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), to access production volumes, mitigation measures applicable to the sector, and carbon dioxide removal potentials within the country to eventually offset the sector's remaining emissions. Results indicate sustained oil and gas production over the evaluated horizon (2020–2050) without compromising national climate goals, yet the sector's future emissions trajectory does not align with decarbonization targets pursued by more ambitious oil-producing nations and industry players. Despite sectoral mitigation measures indicated by the model, considerable emissions remain until 2050. Conversely, the country offers ample offsetting opportunities with potential synergies for the sector, especially through BECCS. Furthermore, the acceptability of offsets is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate action is the grand challenge of the 21st century. Large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed, with net-zero CO 2 emissions by mid-century a requirement for many scenarios that restrain global warming below 1.5 °C by 2100. This will require massive deployment of renewables such as ground-based solar and wind, increased long-distance grid transmission capacity, and electrification of much of the global economy. Increased electrification, coupled with rising standards of living in developing countries, will drive ever-larger electricity demand to 2050 and beyond. And the intermittency, land-use, and transmission requirements of ground-based solar and wind present challenges to large-scale deployment to meet Net Zero targets. Space-based solar power (SSP) presents an enticing alternative, and with full reusability of upcoming heavy launch vehicles and modular SSP architectures, the economics of deployment are expected to become favorable in the coming decades. Efforts exist today to deploy demonstrators this decade, with initial production systems by 2050. However, deploying SSP at the scale required to address rising, global electricity demand will itself require orders-of-magnitude greater launch frequencies. If heavy launch frequency does not increase quickly enough, due to environmental concerns, launch site competition, or other bottlenecks, the dropping cost of launch will not be sufficient to enable SSP for global impact this century. A space elevator (SE) development program like that proposed by the International Space Elevator Consortium (ISEC) offers an alternative delivery mechanism for scaling SSP beyond 2050, hedging the risk of reliance on a single delivery system while reducing the time required for large-scale SSP deployment. To de-risk possible futures in which SSP is a major part of the global energy mix this century, a dual space access architecture is proposed, leveraging the strengths of heavy launch and SEs together. Such an architecture would secure the future for green energy on Earth, in 2050 and beyond. • Net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2050 required for many climate scenarios with < 1. 5 °C warming. • Massive deployment of renewables and scale-ups of long-distance transmission required. • Space-based solar power (SSP) is becoming economically viable as an enticing alternative. • Reusable heavy launch must scale-up rapidly to deploy SSP at scale for net-zero. • A space elevator development program would de-risk delivery of SSP at scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable socio-economic development requires a global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize an incentivized experiment to map the preferences of 'policymakers' over climate actions of 'decision-makers'. Our design guarantees that these preferences are unaffected by selfish motives such as a concern about being re-elected or an unwillingness to pay for the greater good. Few of our impartial policymakers choose interventions that leave the autonomy of decision-makers' completely untouched. The choice patterns of those who intervene suggest that policymakers care not only about minimizing emissions, but also about how emissions are reduced. Policymakers strongly prefer pricing policies over capping emissions, and among the pricing policies, they prefer those that include voluntary carbon offsets, even if this leaves considerable scope for decision-makers to selfishly emit CO 2. The reason is that policymakers expect decision-makers to voluntarily offset some of their emissions at their own cost, and believe that this would eventually improve the outcome in terms of both emissions and the decision-makers' profit relative to a standard carbon pricing policy (without offsetting). Our decision-making data confirm this expectation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving China's ambitious carbon neutrality goal requires tangible action by the provinces. Significant heterogeneities between provinces make for divergent transition paths and different contributions to climate goals. To portray the dynamics of the energy transition at the provincial level, this study develops a China's provincial energy-environment-economic model (China TIMES-30PE) with special consideration of the interprovincial electricity transmission. To achieve carbon peaking, it is necessary to raise the carbon intensity reduction target on the basis of the 13th Five-Year Plan and enable rapid emission reductions through non-fossil energy expansion, end-use electrification, and the hydrogen boom to achieve carbon neutrality. Renewable energy and energy storage growth is concentrated in West, but electricity demand is growing rapidly in the East, creating a clear mismatch and making inter-provincial transmission and grid needs steeper. The central provinces shift from electricity exporters to electricity importers in future energy system landscape. By 2060, China is expected to form several major inter-regional power transmission routes from Northwest China to the Yangtze River Delta and Central China, from Inner Mongolia to Shandong, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Henan, from Sichuan to the Yangtze River Delta, and from Yunnan to Guangdong. Driven by large-scale long-distance transmission, the capacity of ultra-high voltage lines is expected to increase rapidly. • Present the provincial carbon emission pathways towards carbon neutrality targets. • Provincial load curves are introduced in China TIMES-30PE model. • Large renewable power deployment increases the interprovincial power transmission. • The power transmission pattern is shifting towards long-distance and large-capacity. • Capacity of long-distance UHV lines grow rapidly under carbon neutrality targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving decarbonisation of the heating sector is a major challenge, especially in Ireland, which has the lowest proportion of renewable heat in Europe. In economically pursuing ambitious and equitable climate targets, Ireland's Climate Action Plan 2023 set a goal of reaching 2.5 TWh of district heating by 2030, starting from a limited existing capacity. This pioneering study explores supply sources and heat density demand cohorts to develop a model to understand district heating in a low-deployment region, using Ireland as a case study. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis considering different connection rates. Our research demonstrates that district heating is pivotal in achieving optimal decarbonisation pathways. Incorporating district heating reduces marginal CO 2 emission prices by 13%–25%. Additionally, with feasible growth limits applied, total savings for the energy system are anticipated to reach €17.2 billion by 2050. This reduction of emissions in the building sector, facilitated by district heating, allows for greater emissions allowances in other sectors and reduces reliance on electricity while meeting climate targets. These insights highlight the need for spatial energy policies and deepen our understanding of integrating district heating within an energy system optimisation model. • District heating in Ireland can reduce marginal CO 2 emission prices by 13%–25%. • District heating can cumulatively save €17.2 billion compared to no district heating. • Regional energy policy is needed to align with cost-optimal pathways. • Regional supply and demand quantified sensitivity analysis strengthens insights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts to enhance greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction in East Asia play a pivotal role on both global and regional scales in advancing climate mitigation strategies. This study aimed to better constrain anthropogenic CO 2 emission estimates by expanding the network of near-surface in-situ stations for CO 2 observations across South Korea. To achieve an optimal CO 2 network design, we conducted an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) coupled with the Stochastic Lagrangian Transport model (STILT), utilizing meteorological data from the Korean Integrated Model (KIM). Our inversion setup incorporated two CO 2 emission datasets with a 0.1o resolution: EDGAR v6 for prior emissions and GRACED for truth emissions. A uniform model-mismatch error of 3 ppm was introduced across sites. The effectiveness of the existing five in-situ stations, termed the base network, in South Korea was evaluated to gauge their ability to constrain CO 2 surface flux estimates. However, the findings revealed a reduction in flux uncertainty of only 29.2%, which fell short of the desired uncertainty reduction goal. In this base network, the Lotte World Tower (LWT: 37.5126°E, 127.1025°E) in Seoul and the Anmyeondo (AMY: 36.538576° N, 126.330071° E) site in Taean county stood as major contributors, with estimated reductions of 17.48% and 6.35%, respectively. Consequently, we proposed and developed an extended network, identifying seven candidate sites based on consideration of logistical factors, existing infrastructures, and proximity to the emission source regions. An incremental optimization scheme ranked their contributions, resulting in an additional 25% reduction, bringing the total to 54.13%. However, it is noteworthy that diminishing returns (ranging from 13% to less than 0.1%) were observed with an increase in station count mainly due to the possibility that adding a station earlier in the sequence might render subsequent stations redundant. Despite this, the proposed CO 2 network successfully reduced uncertainty in emissions, narrowing the gap with the objectives of the Global Greenhouse Gas Watch (G3W). • Designing CO 2 near-surface observation network over South Korea. • New stations selected considering logistic factors, existing infrastructures, and proximity to emission sources. • The base network was able to reduce 29.18% of the uncertainty in CO 2 emissions. • Extending network, by adding new seven candidate sites, led to a total uncertainty reduction of 54.13%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese government has announced ambitious carbon reduction goals to address climate change, however, there has been limited scientific attention to the achievement of deep decarbonization in regions with insufficient economic development. Moreover, the complex impacts of climate change mitigation on energy system, environment and economic development remain unclear in Northwest China. Here we construct a comprehensive evaluation model system to evaluate the effects of different climate mitigation pathways in Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu and Xinjiang provinces. Results show that the four provinces need to vigorously increase the share of electricity that consumed in final energy to 53.1–60.0% and 52.9–62.0% for 2 °C and 1.5 °C target, respectively, and reduce total energy demand to 11.6–44.4 Mtoe and 8.2–34.1 Mtoe in 2050. Meanwhile, the CO 2 emissions for their energy systems will reach peak by 2025 at lower values. Moreover, the synergies of CO 2 reduction are most conducive to abating SO 2 pollution and also contributing to decreasing PM 2.5 concentrations. Additionally, the GDP losses in 2050 fluctuate from 5.0 to 21.7 billion USD in the 2 °C scenario to 11.5–52.7 billion USD in the 1.5 °C scenario. Our study provides practical guidance on achieving carbon reductions in less developed regions of China and lays foundations to promote decarbonization of energy systems in other provinces. • Realizing climate goals requires low-carbon energy systems led by electricity. • Energy-related carbon emissions in Northwest China will peak by 2025. • More ambitious climate and clean air policies are needed for air quality improvement. • Economic loss shows an upward trend in the future under climate targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emission reduction in China matters to global climate change mitigation. China has been experiencing extensive land changes, which profoundly influence terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) and carbon emissions. Scholars have predicted influences of land changes on TECS in China with scenarios obtained from global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which lack national details. Moreover, universally existing variations in land-use intensity have not been considered when estimating influences on TECS. This study simulated changes of land-use intensity of China from 2000 to 2050 using CLUMondo under China-specified policies for sustainable development modeled by a national IAM named Threshold21-China. We proposed a more precise TECS estimation method by distinguishing land-vegetation and land-soil types. Results demonstrated that under scenario with preceding policies, the total TECS can increase by 865.5 Tg C from 2000 to 2050. Through implementing preceding policies, TECS loss by conversions from cultivated land to artificial surfaces can decline by 82 Tg C, and new TECS accumulated by increased and densified forests can increase by 73 Tg C. Mountainous and rapidly urbanizing regions are sensitively influenced and need more restrict land change management policies. This study demonstrates the significance of sustainable development policies for TECS conservation and indicates specific critical regions. • Introducing national IAM into land change simulation. • Considering land-use intensities in land change simulation. • Proposing an improved TECS estimation method. • Estimating influences of land changes on China's TECS. • TECS accumulation could be improved under sustainable policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The depth and breadth of the climate crisis is well known, all sectors, industry, government and the individual have the potential to reduce emissions to slow or stop catastrophic climate change. To determine and evaluate the (revealed) preferences of the public in reducing their personal carbon emissions, a conjoint analysis survey, using the PAPRIKA (Potentially All Pairwise RanKings of all possible Alternatives) method, was distributed to the public in a city in the south of England (Southampton). Knowledge of the deep-seated preferences of the public makes a fundamental contribution to future climate actions because it enables publicly acceptable system change to be developed. Results showed the public were unwilling to make large-scale lifestyle changes, even if they would cause large emission reductions. There was a clear preference for making relatively easy, convenient changes to behaviour rather than making more difficult personal lifestyle changes involving diet and transportation. A significant value-action gap is evident, with the public showing high awareness of the seriousness of climate change but showing an unwillingness to make deep cuts to their personal emissions. Demography and personal factors had a relatively low influence over preferences with trends generally staying the same across demographic groups, aside from income brackets. Participants believed that reductions in emissions should come from a 'group effort' from all levels of government, business, environmental groups and individuals. Few participants placed themselves as individual drivers of carbon emission reduction. In order to reduce emissions some form of intervention needs to be made, as the public are not personally willing to make large-scale reductions in carbon emissions, regardless of their environmental awareness or demography. • Public's views on approaches to carbon reduction investigated via conjoint analysis. • Preference for low intensity, 'easy' behaviours not challenging lifestyle changes. • Demographic & personal factors have low influence on carbon reduction preferences. • High awareness of severity of climate change, impacts/priority; also high anxiety. • Desire to consume & "carry on as normal" outweighs self-reported concerns/attitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapidly increasing catastrophic environmental incidents and changes in global climate have compelled researchers to take proactive measures for climate change mitigation. Consequently, reducing greenhouse gas emissions has become one of the most significant global targets. The transportation sector has a massive carbon footprint accounting for 22% of the total carbon dioxide emissions. In this regard, road transport contributes the largest fraction of the total emissions within the transportation sector. Conversely, the railway which is the cleanest form of transportation contributes slightly more than 1% of the total emissions. Moreover, since most of the rail systems are operated by government or private companies, it is relatively convenient to implement policies and replace conventional technology with environmentally friendly ones. This could be achieved by taking certain measures from technical and operational viewpoints for conserving energy to lower the carbon intensity of all transport modalities. Hence, this review paper focuses on investigating the railway sector to encourage a modal shift to the least carbon-intensive option. This study provides a critical review of the past and present rail technologies in terms of the environmental, economic, social, and technical perspectives. Moreover, a comparative assessment of the various locomotive types has been performed. The results reveal that battery-hydrogen hybrid locomotives are the best choice to be considered as a future locomotive technology. Hydrogen locomotives have the potential to be a promising alternative to diesel railway locomotives. However, certain technical barriers need to be overcome to enhance the overall system's performance and reliability to further improve the viability of its deployment in the railway sector. [Display omitted] • A critical review of the various rail technologies is provided through different viewpoints. • The assessment constitutes environmental, economic, social, and technical perspectives. • A decision-support tool for comparison of four rail technologies is also developed. • Battery-hydrogen hybrid locomotive results in the highest score of 1.47. • Standalone hydrogen locomotive results in the second highest score of 1.38. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), but they can play a significant role in climate change mitigation by adopting and implementing GHG emission reduction plans, policies and measures. Circular economy measures are recognized to contribute significantly to decarbonization. However, in the literature there is a lack of quantitative analyses on circular measures in cities and their impact on urban GHG emissions. The paper aims to contribute to the literature on the relation between circular cities and climate change mitigation by focusing on circular interventions applicable in three high-impact sectors in cities: energy systems, mobility and built environment, in order to investigate their impacts in terms of emission reductions and contribution to decarbonization. The study covers four cities around the world accounting for more than 10 million of inhabitants and 2,000 km2 of metropolitan area: Bogotá, Colombia; Genoa and Milan, Italy; Glasgow, UK. The methodology uses a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) modelling approach to develop production and consumption-based emission baselines for the four cities and to assess impacts of selected circular measures in the three sectors on the baselines. According to the in-depth analysis of the four considered urban contexts, the majority of the emissions generated by activities carried out within the urban borders are emitted outside the borders in the form of emissions scope 3, thus demonstrating how today's cities are large consumers of goods produced outside their borders, requiring the use of a consumption-based approach for emissions inventory. The results on the modelling of the GHG reduction impact of circular measures show that there is a relevant emission reduction potential in Scope 1 and 2 emissions in cities and highlight the need to prioritize decarbonization of electricity supply in order to ensure relevant emission reductions across the three sectors. The results also demonstrate the potential to reduce supply-chain Scope 3 emissions through urban measures. [Display omitted] • Four different urban contexts around the world are taken in account. • Three sectors are investigated: energy, mobility and built environment. • A consumption-based emission accounting method is used to assess the effective impact of cities. • Impacts of different GHG emission reduction interventions are evaluated for each city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is a crucial technology for global climate mitigation. To implement large-scale CCUS, decisions about where and how to build a CO 2 transportation network are urgently required. However, previous studies are limited in proposing the economical transportation network for CCUS that considered comprehensive risks from socio-economic, geographical and geological factors. Here, we develop a pipeline layout planning model to investigate the cost-effective and reliable transportation network for CCUS. Results show that to meet the annual CO 2 emission reduction target of 654 million tons for CCUS in the coal-fired power sector under China's carbon neutral goal, pipelines with a total length of 17,589 km need to be constructed. The emission sources can be transported in pipelines with an average radius of 58 km, and with diameters of 8, 12, and 16 inches. Northeast, north, and northwest China are the main areas suitable for pipeline construction. • Northeast, North, and Northwest in China are vital areas for capture, transport, and storage. • Five large-scale pipeline network groups can be constructed in China. • Pipeline construction is greatly affected by a variety of practical factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Consumption of fuel generates greenhouse gas and particulate emissions. [•] We preent a synthesis of wildland fire fuel consumption. [•] Consume and FOFEM are two models to estimate fuel consumption. [•] Improved consumption models are needed for crowns, duff layers, and rotten logs. [•] Information is lacking on black carbon residue remaining following fire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Distribution effect of carbon-food nexus for Chinese cities were explored. • Several methods built using the spatial decoupling index were proposed. • Chinese cities exhibited varying degrees of the distribution effect over the period. • Driver pattern of carbon-food nexus has changed over the years. Climate change mitigation and food security are sustainable development goals (SDGs) of the United Nations. Despite extensive studies focused on the nexus of different SDGs and corresponding mechanisms, the distribution effect of carbon-food nexus and its driver has received limited attention, hindering policy making for balancing pathways of regional emission reduction and food production improvement. The present study explored the distribution effect (i.e., spatial performance) of carbon-food nexus from multiple perspectives (namely, status quo, drivers, and trend) based on a unique city-level dataset from 2005 to 2017. To this end, we proposed the spatial decoupling index, the corresponding decomposition and nonparametric models for capturing the multi-perspective distribution effects. The results indicated that Chinese cities, categorized by population scale and economic structure, exhibited varying degrees of distributions of carbon-food nexus over the period. Moreover, the driver pattern of carbon-food nexus was noted to have changed, wherein investment efficiency and scale were positive drivers. Furthermore, we showed that a more developed city's economy was statistically significantly associated with higher carbon emission and lower food production. Therefore, related stakeholders should take more actions such as strengthening capital accumulation and joint management of carbon intensity, for improving the distribution effect of the overall city-level carbon-food nexus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world needs to rapidly reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission to stave off the risks of disastrous climate change. In particular, decarbonizing U.S. manufacturing industries is particularly challenging due to the specific process requirements. This study estimates the potential for future CO 2 emission reductions in this important sector. The analysis is a detailed accounting exercise that relies on estimates of emission-reduction potential from other studies and applies those potentials to the manufacturing sector using a bottom-up approach. The actions are grouped into four "pillars" that support deep decarbonization of manufacturing (DDM): Energy Efficiency, Material Efficiency, Industry-Specific, and Power Grid. Based on this bottom-up approach, the analysis shows that an 86% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from the Reference Case is feasible. No single pillar dominates DDM, although opportunities vary widely by sub-sector. The analysis shows that a strategy incorporating a broad set of elements from each pillar can be effective instead of relying on any single pillar. Some pillars, such as Energy Efficiency and Material Efficiency, have wide applicability; others have key niche roles that are Industry-Specific; the Power Grid pillar requires interaction between grid decarbonization and industry action to switch from fossil fuels to zero-carbon electricity where appropriate. [Display omitted] • Four technological strategies ("pillars") for deep decarbonization of U.S. manufacturing are investigated. • Seven energy-intensive and one non-energy-intensive industries are examined separately. • An 86% reduction in energy related CO 2 emissions is feasible in U.S. manufacturing by 2050. • No single pillar dominates implying a diversified approach to decarbonization is needed. • Some emissions remain in select industries, in particular chemicals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]