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Summary: This paper describes an algorithm for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall ‘fragments’ (fine-resolution rainfall sequences) under a future, warmer climate. The algorithm uses a combined generalised additive model (GAM) and method of fragments (MoFs) framework to resample sub-daily rainfall fragments from the historical record conditional on daily rainfall amount and a range of atmospheric covariates. The rationale is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns corresponding to warmer days at the same location, or to locations which have an atmospheric profile more reflective of expected future climate. It was found that the daily to sub-daily scaling relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically showing more intense rainfall occurring over shorter periods compared with cooler seasons and stations. Importantly, by regressing against atmospheric covariates such as temperature, this effect was substantially reduced, suggesting that the approach may also be valid when extrapolating to a future climate. The GAM–MoF algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, with the results showing that relative to the daily rainfall amount, the maximum intensity of short duration rainfall increased by between 4.1% and 13.4% per degree change in temperature for the maximum six minute burst, and by between 3.1% and 6.8% for the maximum 1h burst. The fraction of each wet day with no rainfall also increased by between 1.5% and 3.5%. This highlights that a significant proportion of the change to the distribution of rainfall is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with important implications for many hydrological systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Accurate high-resolution soil moisture data are needed for a range of agricultural and hydrologic activities. To improve the spatial resolution of ∼40km resolution passive microwave-derived soil moisture, a methodology based on 1km resolution MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) red, near-infrared and thermal-infrared data has been implemented at 4km resolution. The three components of that method are (i) fractional vegetation cover, (ii) soil evaporative efficiency (defined as the ratio of actual to potential evaporation) and (iii) a downscaling relationship. In this paper, 36 different disaggregation algorithms are built from 3 fractional vegetation cover formulations, 3 soil evaporative efficiency models, and 4 downscaling relationships. All algorithms differ with regard to the representation of the nonlinear relationship between microwave-derived soil moisture and optical-derived soil evaporative efficiency. Airborne L-band data collected over an Australian agricultural area are used to both generate ∼40km resolution microwave pixels and verify disaggregation results at 4km resolution. Among the 36 disaggregation algorithms, one is identified as being more robust (insensitive to soil, vegetation and atmospheric variables) than the others with a mean slope between MODIS-disaggregated and L-band derived soil moisture of 0.94. The robustness of that algorithm is notably assessed by comparing the disaggregation results obtained using composited (averaged) Terra and Aqua MODIS data, and using data from Terra and Aqua separately. The error on disaggregated soil moisture is systematically reduced by compositing daily Terra and Aqua data with an error of 0.012vol./vol. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]